Jeremy Stephens will beat Aldo comfortably, be on the look out for plus (+xxx) numbers available on Stephens.

fill your boots

just got a small bet on sodiq yussef at +230. think that should be a close fight. it looks like an awful matchup for newell but think i'm going to pass on that fight. his opponent looks good, but total cupcake competition.

DWTNCS 14 Risk $1895.00

Nick Newell (+105) vs Alex Munoz $100.00 for $105.00
Nick Newell (+102) vs Alex Munoz $200.00 for $204.00
Nick Newell (+102) vs Alex Munoz $200.00 for $204.00
Nick Newell (-134) vs Alex Munoz ~$495.00 for ~$369.40

Jim Crute wins inside distance (-125) $62.50 for $50.00
Jim Crute/Chris Birchler won’t go 3 round distance (-135) $67.50 for $50.00

Sodiq Yusuff (+230) vs Mike Davis $100.00 for $230.00

Jeff Hughes (-235) vs Josh Appelt $470.00 for $200.00

Canaan Kawaihae (+140) vs Chase Hooper $200.00 for $280.00

that was the softest gnp ive ever seen

He's not going to decision Aldo is he, if he's winning he's going to win by TKO so feels like the prop is better if you like that side right? No way Aldo takes a 25min beating from Stephens, I can see Aldo grinding him down or Stephens knocking him out but Stephens by decision seems unlikely. Stephens ITD +2xx certainly seems better than the +11x straight up right?

GL Newell, too busy to watch but will catch a replay, would be an amazing story if he can fight his way into the UFC.

3 rounds not 5 for aldo

Oh right i'm ******ed i'm too used to Aldo fights being 5 rounds

Yeah, odds seem about right for straight up vs decision then

I sort of lean Aldo on skillset, but he's clearly declining and Stephens power is among the best at FW. I probably lean Aldo, current Max would make anyone look bad I think except maybe Conor at 145 and no way Conor's ever fighting at 145 again

How motivated could Aldo be? He's nowhere near the title picture because he has lost to Max 2x already and UFC probably can't stand him being champ because he was a pullout merchant when he was the champ.

After he lost to Max I thought he would move up to 155.

Till/Woodley ME at 228

lmao Jim Crute the LHW aussie dude who won a contract on contender series via TKO. had a funny quote live when he was talking to that girl host at the end of the show.

i like cutelaba by ko , dude a physical specimen,probably coming full force after 2 year lay off..
morono should edge mein , aubin mercier , poirier , stephens

im staying away from the aldo fight. i can see him coming out, being safe defensively, easy 30-27 or i can see him getting flatlined.

Here's my action for this weekend.

Risk $25 To Win $705
A. Davis (+135)
J. Makdessi (-170)
E. Alvarez (+135)
J. Stephens (+110)
J. Jedrzejczyk (-280)
I. Makhachev (-600)

Risk $50 to win $1013
A. Davis (+135)
A. Morono (-120)
E. Alvarez (+135)
J. Stephens (+110)

Risk $225 to win $793
J. Makdessi (-170)
J. Jedrzejczyk (-280)
J. Stephens (+110)

RIP: Sergio Marchionne

some will torch that makhachev line...i can understand it like a jab with o pop in it :P

+500+

Yeah, My B.

Apart from KO'ing Beneil Dariush in the first round (which was impressive, but could have just been a lucky shot), what has Alexander Hernandez ever done in his MMA career? Seems kind of weird that he's been priced as close to a pick'em against OAM, who is a very skilled and seasoned fighter.

He has that "It" factor, the right attitude, from the few clips I've seen he's usually the aggressor, and a freakishly strong right hand for a smaller guy. He's in a murderers division but this guy is going to be a star at lightweight.

Missed a few cards due to guests so looking forward to this weekend.

Aldo now a +102 underdog on ACR. I know Holloway seemed to dominate him, but in the first fight Aldo won the first two rounds (Sherdog judges) and in the second fight one judge scored the first for Aldo and two judges gave the second to Aldo. This seems relevant to me since Stephens is only a 3 round fight and if Aldo can win the first two rounds against Holloway, arguably in both fights, then surely he can do it against Stephens.

Holloway seemed to just overwhelm Aldo with volume and infinite stamina and Stephens seems like a "looking to land one big punch" kind of a fighter.

I typed out a long reply outlining all the reasons I like Stephens but I’m on my iPad and it didn’t post for some reason and I’m too lazy to rewrite it, so I’ll just say good luck to all.

I have Poirier, Stephens, and OAM.

Cliff notes of what I was gonna say: Stephens isn’t as good against tall lanky guys who are smart and use angles well (Moicano Holloway and Swanson) for a whole host of reasons. He couldn’t stop the takedown against Edgar. But apart from that the dude is an absolute monster, and his leg kicks have turned into a ++ weapon for him, so he’s not really the headhunter he was in his younger days. He still has power but he doesn’t need it.

I get the argument for Aldo (buying low on a guy who just fought championship competition twice) but I really think he’s in a terminal decline. When was the last time he threw a leg kick? That used to be his most vicious weapon, he’s really not the same guy without that in his arsenal.

I agree with this too. Obviously tough to say where a fighter’s head is at but Aldo has to know deep down he’ll never be champ again. Stephens is hungry, Aldo probably isn’t.

LFA 46 Risk $286.00

James Nakashima (-118) vs Kyle Stewart $236.00 for $200.00
Cristhian Torres (+472) vs Dashawn Boatwright $50.00 for $236.00

if max loses the belt (which is definitely possible either through a loss or being stripped) hes first in line. i think trying to manufacture narratives like this that you have no idea if theyre true is dangerous. what if he was super embarrassed from his last two fights and is more dedicated than ever? he looked great at weighins. im for sure betting aldo if he gets to 125+. aldo was the dog in the frankie rematch cause of narratives like this, and we know how that turned out.