Mendes is clearly the better fighter but Jury is a decent guy to see if Mendes is still a top 15 fighter post USADA post layoff and post being knocked out twice.

The main issues for Mendes are he was knocked out back to back by Conor and Frankie Edgar so his chin may have cracked especially as Edgar isn't known for his power. He's been suspended 2 years by USADA and failed the eye test for steroids, so I don't buy his skin cream excuse which means that if he's clean now for his return we may see a huge decline if he was on steroids in his prime. Also, ring rust is real if your name isn't Dominick Cruz.

So basically, questions over chin, questions over being ruined by USADA and questions over long layoff are all legitimate concerns. Skillset wise Mendes should win, he has the better striking and the better wrestling, but he may just be done. We'll find out when he fights Jury if Mendes is still a contender or his best days are behind him.

I'm leaving it alone for now.

I do rate Volkanovski but Elkins at 3.7 looks like a good underdog bet.
Other then that probably going to fade Sage and take Ottow at 2.25.

Be interested if anyone has any strong leans on either of these fights?

No real leans as I think I missed Sage's last fight

Reneau seems to be steaming in a bit. Zingano's truly done as a contender if she can't win this one.

Elkins is always a bet at those prices because of his ridiculous fight IQ (despite his terrible tattoo IQ). I rate Volkanovski and think he wins and hope he does kind of as an Aussie, but in terms of raw units if all of my bets were the same size i'd be up more on Elkins than any other fighter with the possible exception of TJ so not going to fade him

I hope JDS has something left and am interested to see what Mendes looks like after the long layoff.

Also is JAG that shot post USADA that she's a dog to Esquibel? I kind of like fading Esquibel, but can't remember anything about how JAG looked in her last loss.

Scoggins kind of tempting as a dog but he has ****** fight IQ despite being very talented. Have never seen Said Nurmagomedov fight but imagine he might be overvalued because of his surname and relative.

If I had to take a spot it might be Aguilar but nothing standing out to me as must bet. I have a feeling that either Mendes or Jury will be the value spot of the night I don't expect that fight to be close at all it just depends whether Mendes is completely shot post USADA and layoff and chin or not

Already took Elkins. Dude is a grinder, tough as nails, and has a very underrated grappling skillset. Volkanovski looks like he's physically strong as f*ck though, which could cause some problems, but Elkins is exactly the kind of guy who can pull off an upset here.

I think the smart play is probably to fade Sage, I originally bet him but I didn't realize he was moving up to welterweight and this is his first fight there, so I hedged some of my action and currently have a small bet on him which I don't really like at a bad price. Sage has explosive takedowns and flashy striking, but he gets cleanly tagged too much for my liking and Ottow has big power and is a seasoned vet, so who knows. Will be an interesting fight.

Anyways, I have Elkins at +255, Mendes at average price of -198 (large bet), Bermudez at -175, Northcutt at -160 due to hedging, JDS at -175 and Randy Brown at -115. Think that's going to be it for me on this card, didn't look at everyone but couldn't find any other spots that I liked.

Bellator 202 Risk $1152.50

Talita Nogueira (+280) vs Julia Budd $100.00 for $280.00
Talita Nogueira wins inside distance (+310) $50.00 for $155.00
Talita Nogueira/Julia Budd won’t go 5 round distance (+145) $100.00 for $145.00

Eduardo Dantas (-145) vs Michael McDonald $145.00 for $100.00
Eduardo Dantas (-150) vs Michael McDonald $150.00 for $100.00
Eduardo Dantas (-150) vs Michael McDonald $150.00 for $100.00
Eduardo Dantas/Michael McDonald won’t go 3 round distance (+185) $100.00 for $185.00

Leo Leite (+205) vs Chris Honeycutt $100.00 for $205.00

Not Valentin Moldavsky inside distance (-115) vs Ernest James $57.50 for $50.00

Veta Arteaga (+345) vs Emily Ducote $100.00 for $345.00

Gerald Harris (+155) vs Yaroslav Amosov $100.00 for $155.00

i'm not so sure about that. he's got 2 knockouts in 21 fights. i think you're overrating a corpse of mike pyle knockout. i think sage is going to win but i think it's possible he gets knocked out. i think its more likely he gets subbed tbh. ottow swept kiichi kunimoto and got his back for a bit in the later rounds in their fight. sage giving up his back is like nightmare scenario.

i honestly don't think sage's chin is that suspect, it's his defense. i'm hoping this improves a bit the more time he spends at alpha male. he took some flush shots from gouti who's a bit of a puncher himself. he got dropped for sure, but he was still in the fight. the gall knockdown wasn't so much a bad chin again, rather than just leaving himself overextended after his combo and exposed for a flush counter behind the ear. i really expect to see a dominant sage performance soon though. he's got all the potential in the world and he's going to be twice as fast as zak. i really think we can see another sage-quinones fight here.

Added: Talita Nogueira/Julia Budd Under 4½ (+105) $100.00 for $105.00

parlay zingano and elkins backup the truck

Ended up w small plays on Volkanovski -250 (wtf I know it's an arb vs Pinny or was an hour ago when I bet it but i'm insane to fade Elkins when he's my most winning fighter to bet on ever in terms of ROI - that said skillset wise Elkins only chance is to grind out a close dec and it's a horrible MU for him as I doubt Volk makes a mistake the way Bektic did) and also on Jury at +129, mostly just a fade on Mendes because the market's fading him and I think there's about a 50/50 chance he's just going to be a shell of his former self. Mendes is either a +300 dog or -300 fav here at least but we won't know which one until the fight happens.

Also put a small sweat parlay on Jury/Aguilar/Ottow/Scoggins and a tiny sweat on Glenn at +205 just because it was off market and I couldn't get a real bet on at that book

Kind of want Reneau because I think Zingano might be mentally broken with everything she's been through but decided to leave it

No big plays this card nothing stands out as a must bet. So many 'are they done' fighters who at their best would probably win easily but could be completely shot. JDS, Aguilar, Mendes, Zingano, Scoggins and Bermudez even. Could be a changing of the guard where they all lose, or some of them might show they're not washed up yet.

Much more excited to bet on TJ, Woodley and Holloway in their title defenses when they happen than anything on this card. DC ITD too against Brock even if that's a long way off. Max could be out a while with the concussion too who knows.

I think it's always ******ed to fade Elkins, but it's a small bet and he can't run above expectation forever in addition to being an incredibly smart fighter he's ridiculously physically limited compared to a guy like Volkanovski.

Backed Elkins at 3.7 and decided to back Mendes at 1.8.

Obviously the Mendes bet is risky coming off a usada ban.
I just think Mendes is the higher calibre fighter.
At 33 years old he is still in his prime and those two years off could be a positive given the knockout he suffered against Edgar.

Odds of 1.8 will look like a steal if Mendes is close to what he was two years ago. If he doesn't look good then his wrestling and knockout power are still enough to make this a close fight.

think zingano is the play of the card. reneau's tdd is awful and cat's not going to fade like mcmann and bernardo did. her guard isn't bad but its still trying to win a fight from your guard in 2018. i think cat should have no problem controlling this fight on the ground. she's a super scrappy fighter and she's going to be there in the third round. combined with reneau's stretches of inactivity and slow starts, i'm comfortable cat will pull off a comfortable 30-27 29-28 type of victory. this is an incredible matchup for her.

i have 6 fights overall on this card.

carmouche, cat, niko, sage, chad, bermudez.

i mght play +127 u/2.5 on the mendes/jury fight. chad's a finisher and if he is truly well and washed and his chin is liddel'd then i have another layer of protection.

talked myself out of aguilar. i'm not convinced she'll be able to get the fight to the ground. wouldn't shock me if she comes out with the intent to use her wreslting vs. one of the weaker athletes in the division besides herself but too much uncertainty. who knows how athletic she is at her age and coming off some serious injuries. she was absolutely outclassed by claudia and cortney casey.

UFN 133 Risk $3741.49

Junior Dos Santos (-170) vs Blagoy Ivanov $170.00 for $100.00
Junior Dos Santos (-170) vs Blagoy Ivanov $170.00 for $100.00
Junior Dos Santos wins by TKO/KO (+150) $50.00 for $75.00
Junior Dos Santos wins in round 1 (+400) ~$25.00 for ~$100.00
Junior Dos Santos/Blagoy Ivanov won’t start round 4 (-161) $161.00 for $100.00
Junior Dos Santos/Blagoy Ivanov Draw (+9000) $10.00 for $900.00

Zak Ottow (+130) vs Sage Northcutt $200.00 for $260.00
Zak Ottow (+120) vs Sage Northcutt $100.00 for $120.00
Zak Ottow (+115) vs Sage Northcutt $100.00 for $115.00
Zak Ottow +3½ points (-215) $215.00 for $100.00
Zak Ottow scorecards = no action (+167) $100.00 for $167.00
Zak Ottow wins by submission (+575) $20.00 for $115.00
Zak Ottow/Sage Northcutt goes 3 round distance (+110) $100.00 for $110.00
Zak Ottow/Sage Northcutt Draw (+8000) $10.00 for $800.00

Rick Glenn Points Victory or Technical Decision (+350) ~$31.25 for ~$109.38
Rick Glenn/Dennis Bermudez Draw (+7500) $10.00 for $750.00

Randy Brown (+105) vs Niko Price $95.24 for $100.00
Randy Brown/Niko Price Draw (+8000) $10.00 for $800.00

Myles Jury (+125) vs Chad Mendes $100.00 for $125.00
Myles Jury (+125) vs Chad Mendes $100.00 for $125.00
Myles Jury scorecards = no action (+117) $125.00 for $146.25
Myles Jury wins by TKO/KO (+465) $50.00 for $232.50
Myles Jury wins in round 2 (+1000) ~$25.00 for ~$250.00
Myles Jury/Chad Mendes Under 2½ (+127) $100.00 for $127.00
Myles Jury/Chad Mendes Draw (+8000) $10.00 for $800.00

Marion Reneau (-120) vs Cat Zingano $240.00 for $200.00
Marion Reneau wins by TKO/KO (+935) $50.00 for $467.50
Marion Reneau wins by submission (+745) $50.00 for $372.50
Marion Reneau/Cat Zingano Draw (+6500) $10.00 for $650.00

Alejandro Perez (-165) vs Eddie Wineland $165.00 for $100.00
Eddie Wineland/Alejandro Perez Draw (+7000) $10.00 for $700.00

Darren Elkins (+285) vs Alexander Volkanovski $100.00 for $285.00
Darren Elkins (+230) vs Alexander Volkanovski $100.00 for $230.00
Darren Elkins wins by TKO/KO (+1265) $15.00 for $189.75
Darren Elkins wins in round 3 (+2400) $15.00 for 360.00
Darren Elkins wins in round 3 (+3300) ~$25.00 for ~$825.00
Darren Elkins/Alex Volkanovski Draw (+7500) $10.00 for $750.00

Justin Scoggins/Said Nurmagomedov Draw (+7000) $10.00 for $700.00

Kurt Holobaugh wins by TKO/KO (+310) $35.00 for $108.50
Kurt Holobaugh/Raoni Barcelos Draw (+8000) $10.00 for $800.00

Liz Carmouche (-120) vs Jennifer Maia $240.00 for $200.00
Liz Carmouche/Jennifer Maia Draw (+6500) $10.00 for $650.00

Elias Garcia (-140) vs Mark De La Rosa $140.00 for $100.00
Mark De La Rosa/Elias Garcia Draw (+8000) $10.00 for $800.00

Jessica Aguilar (+132) vs Jodie Esquibel $200.00 for $264.00
Jessica Aguilar/Jodie Esquibel Draw (+6500) $10.00 for $650.00

Fights to end in KO/TKO Under 3½ (-125) $31.25 for $25.00
Fights to end in KO/TKO Under 2½ (+205) $15.00 for $30.75

Fights to go distance over 7½ (-135) $54.00 for $40.00
Fights to go distance over 8½ (+190) $15.00 for $28.50
Fights to go distance over 9½ (+450) $10.00 for $45.00
Fights to go distance over 10½ (+1625) $3.00 for $48.75
Fights to go distance over 11½ (+7950) $2.00 for $159.00

Junior Dos Santos wins POTN bonus (+180) ~$12.50 for ~$22.50
Myles Jury wins POTN bonus (+420) ~$12.50 for ~$52.50
Marion Reneau wins POTN bonus (+500) ~$12.50 for ~$62.50
Kurt Holobaugh wins POTN bonus (+600) ~$12.50 for ~$75.00

Randy Brown/Niko Price wins FOTN bonus (+440) ~$18.75 for ~$82.50

Cat Zingano @ 1/1

Cat Zingano v Marion Reneau

Fight Outright

Stake:
£65.00
Potential Returns: £130.00

(Also like the Sage Northcutt vs. Zak Ottow itd, but no bet)

overkill loll it look like gold to me gl

betting on carmouche is so stressful because she's so gifted physically, but she just takes like 3-4 minutes off every fight. and shes guaranteed to be stalled on the cage for 3 minutes minimum and never dig for an underhook once.

Scoggins robbed...Clearly won rds 1 and 2

Fought way too cautiously in rd 3 though

I added volkanovski when line moved so much at the end but goddamn Elkins makes it scary, huh?

zingano underated wresting in display here...hats off she completly neutrolize reneau

scary for sure lol volkanovski tough he was playing the damage game at some point ,nop the guy is just always there to steal a fight...
i had a little something on elkins to pull out a miracle offccc

Damn almost had a perfect card if Bermudez got the nod. I thought he won 2-3 tbh. When sage got up in the first I knew it was over. He got up with so much nerd swag, I’ve never been more confident in my life.

Thought Ivanov had a little more power. He landed some hard shots and they just didn't do much at all.

Nothing worse than a HW fight that goes the distance.

Went 1-1 and broke even for the card on my only significant bets. Volkanovski officially a top 15 fighter now for sure. Haven't caught the Mendes fight but good to see he's not done I guess, I expected he would be more often than not. Only managed to watch the main since I was out for most of the card, JDS isn't what he was but is still good enough to beat mid level HWs it would appear.

wiff eveything beside one to break even decision & round 3 decison..
couldnt been worse

"think zingano is the play of the card. reneau's tdd is awful and cat's not going to fade like mcmann and bernardo did. her guard isn't bad but its still trying to win a fight from your guard in 2018. i think cat should have no problem controlling this fight on the ground. she's a super scrappy fighter and she's going to be there in the third round. combined with reneau's stretches of inactivity and slow starts, i'm comfortable cat will pull off a comfortable 30-27 29-28 type of victory. this is an incredible matchup for her."

thanks Joe Pulaski for the cat pick, when a member knows some thing clean like this, it results in thread profits for us all. great post! thanks!

I can't be the only one that thinks Shogun is huge value at 3.2 against Smith.
He might be coming off a year long lay off but this is a good match up for Shogun. Think he should be around 2.0-2.2 at most here.