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Old 07-08-2018, 12:42 AM   #46076
RonnyHighroller
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Re: MMA Thread

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cormier +445 itd back up the truck
is this real life
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Old 07-08-2018, 12:47 AM   #46077
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Re: MMA Thread

Good night for the underdogs.
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Old 07-08-2018, 01:31 AM   #46078
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Re: MMA Thread

DC saved my card. Thanks buddy! Haha.
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Old 07-08-2018, 12:43 PM   #46079
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Re: MMA Thread

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cormier +445 itd back up the truck
Nice hit there, DC was my fav bet of the card but ended up just passing on the whole card for betting - probably for the best as I likely would have bet Chiesa as well and more of my other leans lost than won, although DC probably would have got me to even or so.

Would enjoy seeing DC vs Jones 3 if Jones was forced to be clean but I doubt we ever see Jones in the octagon again. Amusingly enough it looks like his next fight is against another steroid cheat in Lesnar. A couple years ago i'd have been cheering for Lesnar to win his belt back, but after it became clear he was using steroids in competition and not just in WWE, **** him, hope DC knocks him out again and expect that he likely will as even though Brock has the raw power I don't think he can ragdoll DC despite the size difference and he'll need to to win because obviously DC wrecks him standing.

DC vs Lesnar should sell a million on PPV it's the biggest fight they can do with Jones suspended until Khabib and Conor are ready to go at it. They could make it the biggest card of all time if they did Conor/Khabib and Lesnar/DC on the same card but obviously no chance of that happening.

Have gone from thinking DC is boring to being a huge fan over the past year or so, very happy for him that he finally won the big one with no asterisks.

Side note pretty sure this means Gustafsson could be HW champ once DC retires. Would love to see him against Stipe or Cain if he can't get the job done when he gets the DC rematch, at some point surely he's going to hold one of the two belts DC has now.

I kind of want to sit through Lewis/Ngannou out of curiosity but apparently worst fight of all time, i've watched all of the fights that had finishes now since I had other plans when the event was on live. I take it the Stipe loss broke Ngannou's spirit and made him too tentative and scared of gassing?

Last edited by SwoopAE; 07-08-2018 at 12:51 PM.
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Old 07-08-2018, 12:56 PM   #46080
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Re: MMA Thread

most people me included thought he was saving his energy, scared of gassing like the stipe fight. i thought at the end of round 2/round 3 he was going to go hulk smash mode against black beast, so zero chance of gassing out.

but nah its like you said it was a ghost of ngannou hes mentally broken now.

also lewis hurt his back early in the fight and it was clearly bothering him, he complained multiple times between rounds, so he had low offence too. = the worst fight ever
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Old 07-08-2018, 02:46 PM   #46081
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Re: MMA Thread

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Placed my first real MMA bet today and it was DC @3.12 which I think is absurdly high. I narrowly missed out on 3.2 which is frustrating.

I don’t really have a strong enough conviction about anything else as it stands but will have another look closer to the time. I’m considering Felder and Ngannou by KO/TKO but not 100% sold as of yet.


Only bet was DC @ 3.12 for £50 stake. Time to retire with a damn good lifetime ROI I say!
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Old 07-08-2018, 04:55 PM   #46082
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Re: MMA Thread

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Old 07-08-2018, 05:08 PM   #46083
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Re: MMA Thread

Hoping to get DC at better than 1/5. He will murder Lesnar.
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Old 07-08-2018, 10:35 PM   #46084
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Re: MMA Thread

Volkan is an extremely dangerous fight for Gustafson. There is definitely value in Oezdemir at +240, that line is mispriced.
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Old 07-09-2018, 05:54 AM   #46085
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Re: MMA Thread

I don't see how he wins other than by KO so you might as well play the KO prop if you like Oezdemir, i'd be shocked if he won a decision even in a 3 rounder.

I was really high on Volkan prior to the DC fight and still think he's a great fighter, but i'd be all over Gustafsson if it got as low as -200ish, I think he wins 3 in 4 or so - I expect him to win over 90% of the decisions and also finish slightly more often

227 should be a great card, will be taking TJ in the rematch, I just trust his chin more than Cody's, both guys are equally talented offensively, Cody probably has slightly better hands but TJ has better kicks and movement and while both guys chins have been cracked in the past, I trust TJ's chin more. I wish I could get Moicano at a reasonable price but not laying the ridiculous current line. I don't see Moicano or Gustafsson losing often enough

Might also take fight ends ITD again if it's at close to evens for the main, both Cody and TJ are capable of finishing the other guy and they're likely to fight to hurt each other as the hatred is real there. It can definitely go the distance, but I think it ends ITD over half the time.
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Old 07-09-2018, 05:59 AM   #46086
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Re: MMA Thread

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Hoping to get DC at better than 1/5. He will murder Lesnar.
There's no way DC opens at -500. I think you'll be able to get -260 to -300 range at least. I expect it to open somewhere around -300 for DC
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Old 07-09-2018, 06:28 AM   #46087
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Re: MMA Thread

Then i'll get ready to bomb away.
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Old 07-09-2018, 11:23 AM   #46088
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
There's no way DC opens at -500. I think you'll be able to get -260 to -300 range at least. I expect it to open somewhere around -300 for DC
Bovada

Cormier (-225)
Lesnar (+175)


William H

Cormier (-227)
Lesnar (+162)
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Old 07-09-2018, 01:26 PM   #46089
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Re: MMA Thread

that feels like mayweather vs conor

in what world does DC beat stipe somewhat easily but lose to brock ****in lesnar lol

id back the truck up on DC here, probably even some bets @ DC 1st or 2nd round ko/tko/sub
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Old 07-09-2018, 06:11 PM   #46090
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Re: MMA Thread

227 is going to be a big underdog card for me. At current prices I like Oezdemir Swanson and Cejudo. Not saying they're favorites, just that's where the EV is IMO.
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Old 07-09-2018, 07:10 PM   #46091
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Re: MMA Thread

I agree DC is value at -225, I figured it could open anywhere from -200 to -400. One big plus is standing next to each other Lesnar towers over him, so casuals might just think Brock can hulk smash him. To be fair, Brock did hulk smash Mark Hunt, but Hunt lacks DC's wrestling credentials.

Brock is way bigger, and is an elite wrestler, but can he really put DC on his back and keep him there through sheer size because DC is technically a better wrestler? Seems unlikely.

I think DC wins by TKO the vast majority of the time and will hope to get DC by TKO at evens or better, will be interesting to see what the line does.

FWIW DC Opened at -145 according to bestfightodds which is obviously absurd and insane.

I don't see how the fight goes the distance, the only way it possibly could is if the entire affair is a grappling exchange and that would basically involve Lesnar LnPing DC, because DC's going to want to stand with him given Brock's let's say subpar striking.

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Old 07-10-2018, 09:55 AM   #46092
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by Malachii View Post
227 is going to be a big underdog card for me. At current prices I like Oezdemir Swanson and Cejudo. Not saying they're favorites, just that's where the EV is IMO.
Yeah agree with you on these fights. Cejudo been improving every fight and although Swanson is past his prime didn't expect him to be such a big dog here.

I love Gus but Oezdemir can obviously crack and I do think Gus will give a few opportunities to land.
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Old 07-10-2018, 02:24 PM   #46093
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Re: MMA Thread

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Going to keep track of my UFC bets going forward.. here is what I got for this weekend:

DC +200 1 unit
D.Lewis +290 .5 unit
Pettis +138 .8 unit
Felder -155 1.55 units
Smullen +280 .5 unit
De La Rosa -190 1.9 units (might go more).
Adensanya -124 1.3 units.

Doing $10 units so nothing crazy but I've had some recent success in UFC betting so why not?
Well this went well for me.. plus I cashed Costa -300 $300 to win $100.
Smuellen and Felder kinda got me, but I'm fine with both tbh. Maybe not Ricky lol.

+4.4 units not counting my big Costa play.

Should of went more on De La Rosa.

Onto this weekend.. here is what I like so far:
Volkan opened at +105?????? omg. Already -355 unreal..

I like Sage this weekend. This is a big fight for him to start fighting decent competition and get rid of that "prospect" tag.

I also like Niko Price and Mendes.. will continue to watch line movement.
Mark De La Rosa +100 as well is not bad. Fighting a 4-0 kid who won on DW looking for a fighter. He is Sergio Pettis home boy as well.. so idk haha.


Gl this weekend. I'll be in Vegas so idk how much I'll be betting/watching!
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Old 07-10-2018, 02:55 PM   #46094
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by RB87 View Post
Yeah agree with you on these fights. Cejudo been improving every fight and although Swanson is past his prime didn't expect him to be such a big dog here.

I love Gus but Oezdemir can obviously crack and I do think Gus will give a few opportunities to land.
Yeah I really think people are sleeping on Cejudo. Yes he got starched the first time they fought but the guy is a massive winner (see Gold Medal in the Olympics) and has improved by leaps and bounds since their first fight, plus DJ is coming off shoulder surgery and has been the champion forever, which inevitably leads to complacency and overconfidence. I see all of the ingredients for an upset here.
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Old 07-10-2018, 07:31 PM   #46095
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Re: MMA Thread

DWTNCS 12 Risk $1480.00

Kevin Aguilar/Joey Gomez goes 3 round distance (+190) $40.00 for $76.00

Alton Cunningham (+170) vs Bevon Lewis $100.00 for $170.00
Alton Cunningham/Bevon Lewis won’t go 3 round distance (+105) $100.00 for $105.00

Ricky Palacios (-195) vs Toby Misech $195.00 for $100.00
Ricky Palacios (-210) vs Toby Misech $210.00 for $100.00
Ricardo Palacios/Tony Misech goes 3 round distance (+160) $100.00 for $160.00
Ricardo Palacios/Tony Misech won’t go 3 round distance (-120) $120.00 for $100.00

Jordan Espinosa (+130) vs Rilley Dutro $100.00 for $130.00
Jordan Espinosa/Riley Dutro won’t go 3 round distance (+125) $100.00 for $125.00

Max Mustaki (+385) vs Jalin Turner $200.00 for $770.00
Max Mustaki wins by 3 round decision (+730) $25.00 for $182.50
Jalin Turner (-190) vs Max Mustaki $190.00 for $100.00
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Old 07-11-2018, 08:08 PM   #46096
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Re: MMA Thread

DC/Brock is for the title isn't it? So it will be 5 rds as well.

Decreasing Brock's chances to win even more.
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Old 07-12-2018, 02:03 AM   #46097
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Re: MMA Thread

Should be 5 rounds yes. Makes it harder for Brock to LnP for a decision. I think his best chance is if he can somehow get mount or side control on DC and get a TKO stoppage or an arm triangle or something early but it seems really unlikely. The first time DC hurts him standing or gets on top of him it's probably over.

Apparently it can't happen until January though due to Brock's USADA testing, DC wants Shogun if he wins his next fight for the LHW title but obviously Gustafsson's the real #1 contender if he beats Oezdemir. Also lol at current Shogun vs DC, he'll get taken down in the first 30 seconds and won't get back up for the rest of the fight and honestly DC might be the better striker at this point.
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Old 07-12-2018, 02:20 PM   #46098
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Re: MMA Thread

What are your guy's thoughts on Chad Mendes versus Myles Jury? I bet Chad Mendes pretty hard when the line opened and was pretty surprised when the line moved against me. Am I underestimating Jury here?
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Old 07-12-2018, 04:16 PM   #46099
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Re: MMA Thread

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What are your guy's thoughts on Chad Mendes versus Myles Jury? I bet Chad Mendes pretty hard when the line opened and was pretty surprised when the line moved against me. Am I underestimating Jury here?
I can see why people would bet Jury. He isn't some random can. But Mendes' has superior wrestling.

If I had bet more on Mendes, the line wouldn't have moved the other way so drastically. I will do better next time!
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Old 07-12-2018, 07:39 PM   #46100
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by Malachii View Post
What are your guy's thoughts on Chad Mendes versus Myles Jury? I bet Chad Mendes pretty hard when the line opened and was pretty surprised when the line moved against me. Am I underestimating Jury here?
i prfer over 2,5 in tht fight , jury is very slick ,slick enough to make it last...high fight iq ect...tight matchup!
i am not aware of any kind of reason that could cause the line to shift
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