Alex Caceres v Martin Bravo..

I picked Wang Guan over Caceres, this time its Caceres over Bravo,

Bravo does not move very well at all, like he has a huge beer belly but if you look he doesnt, he is trim, there is some thing wrong with the way he moves, Caceres is going to move all around him every angle and Bravos striking has a bit of steam on it but its very basic, bit of a mis- match here? and seeing 16/19 available on Caceres, he is going to get a chance to show case vs this guy.


I want to apologize about my previous post, there was a lot of unfounded statements from a internet keyboard jockey, in one way its good because it means people have a lot of passion about the sport and like to be involved and make feedback, i'm sure 100% the UFC does its level best to ensure the best for both its fighters and also the viewing public's entertainment, like most small to big company's, people have put the best years of their lives at maximum burn to ensure a quality production and this area will have been already considered every which way from Sunday, its called a Business risk and will have professionals already reviewing it for limitation if possible etc, like dont put all the fighters on one plaine or one vehicle, make sure the food is double checked and safe, water is clean, cowboy kept it to himself obviously.

UFC has gone on to become one of the most professional and truly awesome promotions I think the world has ever seen? Some of the past events choreography of keeping the public imagination lit and in the zone in the flow, no one does it better than UFC I have had my mouth just open in awe and it has made me aware of what is possible, magic.




I was at the gym this morning and thinking about the holloway vs ortega fight,

I agree we take holloway because of one point about Holloway, he never sleeps and ortega needs you to sleep a little bit, its going to be competitive very, but Holloway is the better fighter, and although orega is absolutely great, a very very good fighter coupled with coming into his own and maturing up and putting it all together, Its not going to be enough because of the plane that Holloway is on,

I think the Holloway of today would beat the conor that beat him in the past..and I guess its that beating (fight result) that has driven him up the mountain side to the top and up into the heavens.


Martin Bravo record looks really good but only the last two have been UFC events with one win and the most recent a devastating knee KO.

Caceres is going to get a really solid chance to warm up get this range and striking going, I think he is being fed a match up leaning his way if you can put it that way.

hollo just has to watch for those crazy subs ortega can seemingly get at will. hes always live for that. otherwise i dont see how max can lose, he looked like a demon against aldo.

Kind of tempted by Luis Pena even though he's in the -280 range atm from the current TUF season he was my pick to win it before he got hurt in the LW side of things. Will think about it a bit more I guess it's a big price to pay against a guy who we didn't really see fight because he got prefight cramps and had to pull out, but Pena looked big for the weight class and really good for a green guy imo

Rolling with Max and DC as my big bets next weekend, just have to decide if i'm going to fire my leans like Pena, Vannata, Chiesa, Ngannou or Ngannou r1 KO, etc

Thinking about Millender if his size advantage is as big as I think it is and maybe Assuncao, but need to watch some Font tape. Assuncao is really ****ing good and flies under the radar a lot for a guy with a win over TJ and Moraes, granted I had TJ winning it 29-28 the first time and he won the rematch but still, Assuncao and Moraes are the 4/5 in the division atm after the big top 3 of TJ/Cody/Cruz imo

Market likes Rountree and I might take him if he steams a ton as Saki looked super vulnerable last fight, but really after betting a ton of dogs lately I lean towards most of the favs this card except I think DC is value at current price although Stipe does deserve to be a small fav imo. Medeiros was the only other dog I was interested in and that fight is off.

Like Felder vs Perry. Felder is a f*cking animal and a much better fighter. If he can avoid the one shot KO he should have a good night.

For UFC 226 and the Ultimate Fighter finale thus far I have Adesanya at -169, Klose at +160, Uriah Hall at +335 (this is a small bet that I will most likely lose), Rountree at +155, Chiesa at -160, N'Gannou at -325, Cormier at +240 (!), and Felder at -145.

Like all of those bets, although the Uriah Hall bet is very speculative. I'm also really looking forward to the Assuncao / Rob Font fight, although I think the line looks about right on that one IMO.

Don't know enough about Dan Hooker / Gilbert Burns or Curtis Millender / Max Griffin to bet either fight, if you guys have an opinion by all means let me know.

Seen a lot of people backing Felder not so sure myself.
As an underdog I think it would be a great bet but as a fav on short notice at a weight class above not so sure.

Technically he should school Perry but he won't have the length advantage that the last two guys that beat Perry had. Felder also isn't afraid to stand in the pocket and trade, against Perry this isn't a good tactic.

Pumped for the actual fight should be awesome but not sold on Felder as value.

Yeah if they were the same weight class i'd take Felder all day but I want to see them on the scale first, Felder is big for 155 but if he's way smaller than Perry I don't think I like it. Same sort of thing as Rory Mac vs Mousasi, I want to see the size difference on fight weekend first

That's a good point on the reach. Felder is a big 155 but you're right, trading with Perry is very dangerous since he's got nuclear bombs for hands. Felder is very skilled and very smart though. Should be a fun fight.

I actually have a pretty big bet on Israel Adesanya - have been adding to my position as the line has moved in my favor. I'm a big Brad Tavares fan and think he's a very good fighter but I think Adesanya is something special and his length and reach is going to cause Tavares a lot of problems. If I was setting the line I'd probably price Israel at -200.

What do u guys think about this scenario?

Say DC loses to Miocic... he would likely come down to retire at 205 defending his belt. The issue is no big name fights or worthy competitors.

Romero has twice come up short at MW and would sadly be a tough argument for a third shot... plus he's like 40 and weight cutting is an issue.

Romero vs DC would have evenly sized fighters and I know DC takes a lot of pride in his amateur wrestling. Therefore it would be great to see whom would dominate.

Thoughts?

If Yoel Romero wants a title shot at 205 he can take a fight against a contender at 205 same as Rockhold and get one if he gets a win. Until then Gustafsson is the de facto #1 contender if he beats Oezdemir. If Gustafsson wins that he's earned a rematch, remember his first fight with DC was a split decision and he came closer than anyone ever has to beating the steroid king Jones.

If Gustafsson wins he'll be on a 3 fight win streak against Blachowicz who is top 15ish and Teixeira and Oezdemir who were both top 5ish at the time of the fight, that should be enough to earn a rematch given the fight before that was a split decision with DC and he has wins over Manuwa and Shogun that have not been avenged, if either want a shot ahead of him they should have to beat him in a rematch. Same for if Rockhold or Romero want a shot ahead of him they should have to beat him in a #1 contender fight at LHW or wait for him to either have his rematch or lose a fight before it.

Rockhold would get absolutely wrecked by Gustafsson it's a nightmare matchup for him to fight a taller, rangier fighter than he is who is also a bigger guy with fast hands, decent power and great TDD. There's no way Rockhold's making it outside 2-3 rounds with Gustafsson let alone 5 his striking defense and chin are too much of a liability. Romero is more of an interesting fight, but he'd need to KO Gustafsson cold to have a chance because he's not going to be able to LnP him. He could do what Rumble did, but would definitely be a substantial underdog, more likely it look like 5 rounds of the first two rounds of the Whittaker fight and a 50-45 for Gustafsson imo.

I think DC would decision Romero on the feet most of the time via throwing more volume and as long as he didn't get knocked out with a big shot he'd win it. Would make DC a -200ish fav probably maybe slightly more at 205.

Looks like the DC line is coming in a bit mildly annoyed at myself for not taking it early but I did some data analysis and my MMA results were actually one of my weaker sports this year (my overall sports betting results are well in the green but i'm slightly in the red on MMA in 2018) so easing back on handicapping based spots and just going to take stuff I like if the market agrees for a while which in this case it seems to on DC since he's being backed in.

Some TUF finale thoughts from waching the season

I hope we get a nice opening price on Katona, great heart by Cuccinello but he only won because Diamond can't handle adversity despite being the better fighter. Katona beating Mitchell was way more impressive and he overcame adversity to do it. Diamond will be in the UFC as he matures as a fighter he's just very green and needs to work on expending his energy more wisely, offensively he's one of the most talented guys this season

Kind of surprised Zuniga and Gunther get a fight on the finale, Gunther is an amazing character but both were really unimpressive on TUF skillset wise and regardless of who wins I doubt they win any other fights in the UFC

I think I like Giannetti in the other final but not sure i'll lay the price. He has some sick grappling skills for a prospect. Trizano was solid too but I was more impressed by Gianetti.

We didn't see Smullen fight due to the cramping issues but was very impressed by Pena and expect him to win

Side note it's funny that one of the guys on the TUF Undefeated finale lost on the show

actually, i wouldn't mind a re-re-match against whitaker...i think theres arguments for a 10 8 in the 4th 5th match for romero! very competitive fights

romero missing weight by 0.02 pds because the commission tough that was enough for him, he couldn't cut any more weight 2 hours before the morning weight in ! lost 30 % of his purse then we know the rest of the story , kinda sad i think he deserve a rematch !

this friday tuff finally ,tavares vs adesanya....imo tavares is much faster , i mean in higher spectrum of speed in that division & vice versa for adesanya ! we should see a huge difference here !

The steam against Max makes sense now, was showing concussion symptoms all week and now pulls out of the fight - obviously some people would have realised he wasn't 100% and been betting against him.

Definitely going to bet on him once he's healthy again and hoping the line opens where it is now

Ortega apparently wants to wait for Holloway instead of fight, which makes sense, but also makes him a bit of a pussy because Edgar chose to fight him instead of wait as #1 contender, he could extend Edgar the same courtesy on short notice, although it would make no sense to do so the same way it didn't for Edgar really financially.

Still got no respect for Brian 'I only failed a drug test for anabolic steroids because of tainted stuff I took for my weight cut' Ortega and can't wait to see Max wreck him, sadly that has to wait.

Max apparently still wanted to fight but his team talked him out of it which is obviously good for his long term health, hopefully he can heal up and be ready later this year.

DC has really grown on me over the course of the current TUF season. It seems like it really isn't an act he just seems like such a great guy. Still a good card this weekend, hopefully no more injuries. The TUF Finale has some decent fights too.

Regarding Romero i'm fine with him getting a third crack at Whittaker since the first two were both close fights, but he needs to beat a top 5 contender first. Weidman and Gastelum should both get a crack at Whittaker first. If Romero can win two in that time against say Jacare and Brunson or whoever doesn't get the first title shot out of Weidman and Gastelum (weird one since Gastelum's had a better couple years but also lost to Weidman in that time) then he can have a third shot. Whittaker's going to just beat him a third time though, he's been injured early in both fights and still won both of them (granted 2nd fight could have been scored a draw) if he can just not wreck his leg or break his hand in the third fight I think he can finish Romero finally.

Going to keep track of my UFC bets going forward.. here is what I got for this weekend:

DC +200 1 unit
D.Lewis +290 .5 unit
Pettis +138 .8 unit
Felder -155 1.55 units
Smullen +280 .5 unit
De La Rosa -190 1.9 units (might go more).
Adensanya -124 1.3 units.

Doing $10 units so nothing crazy but I've had some recent success in UFC betting so why not?

Reasons:
Can't pass on DC at +200.. I just can't. The GOAT is some peoples eyes. He has plans for this heavyweight belt.
D.Lewis .. Going with Schaub on this.. think he's going to try and control fight on ground and TKO Ngannou. Think the hype train ends here.

Love Felder over Perry.. avoid the KO and you're fine.
Smullen - I know tons on Pena.. but we've seen one fight.. and I think the + odds are to good in a fight that is a complete toss up.

De La Rosa - Love her. Her submissions are next level. Wish I could prop her winning by sub as well.. but BOL doesn't have MMA props

PFL 3 Risk $520.00

John Howard (+170) vs Gasan Umalatov $100.00 for $170.00
John Howard (+130) vs Gasan Umalatov $100.00 for $130.00

Joao Zeferino (-115) vs Paul Bradley ~$130.00 for ~$113.04
Joao Zeferino (-125) vs Paul Bradley $125.00 for $100.00

Jonatin Westin (+185) vs Bojan Velickovic ~$65.00 for ~$120.25

Placed my first real MMA bet today and it was DC @3.12 which I think is absurdly high. I narrowly missed out on 3.2 which is frustrating.

I don’t really have a strong enough conviction about anything else as it stands but will have another look closer to the time. I’m considering Felder and Ngannou by KO/TKO but not 100% sold as of yet.

Daniel Cormier falls over on stage in a pre-fight press conference. Jeez.

https://twitter.com/MMAFighting/stat...12257787342848

Am hearing a lot of "The odds on Daniel Cormier are too damn high!" as well elsewhere and sometimes, the betting underdog in the main event has prevailed. Am kind of surprised the odds are so lopsided as well but is there a good reason as to why?

Am looking at who Stipe's faced...

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Stipe-Miocic-39537

...and on the whole, they've been 'bangers' who want to trade punches. Daniel will surely not want a stand-up fight with Stipe. How does Stipe cope with someone who doesn't want to box but wants to wrestle!?

Can Stipe stuff Daniel's takedowns? Can Cormier survive Miocic's boxing? There's surely no problem at the weight for Daniel. Hope there's no 'mystery injury'.

i knew this card wouldnt stay perfect. so close too. still a sick card tho.

Thoughts on Chiesa/Pettis?

Pettis looked washed in his last fight vs Piorier. Just seems like he is fading vs the top 5-10 guys in the division these days.

I think Chiesa wins via top position and being stronger guy in the clinch and grappling exchanges, I liked it the first time when the lines were more like -130 but passing for the time being. Good chance i'll bet it before fight time though. Chiesa's in his prime now and Pettis seems to be past it without being completely shot.

Also apparently Chiesa missed weight, haven't watched the weigh ins yet, fighters who miss have done well this year but in theory it's a disadvantage unless it's a huge miss and they didn't try to cut it

Diamond vs Mitchell's an interesting one on the TUF card, Diamond lost to a weaker fighter in the semis, but also looked far more dominant offensively - he can't take adversity as well as he should, but is excellent offensively. Will be interesting to see, I think both guys will have a better career than Cuccinello who's in the final and it's between the two of them and Katona for best prospect from that weight class on the show

Most excited about Gianetti in the other weight class. If I wake up in time I might fire some bets but scaling a back a bit in spots where I don't catch an off market price due to MMA being one of my weaker sports this year results wise so far

DC weighting in heavier than Stipe is interesting. Definitely shows that most of not all of the sub 245 guys could make 205 if they wanted to.

I kind of like Katona at -226 for tomorrow's card, I just do not see how Cuccinello beats him short of Katona making a bad mistake or gassing badly.

TUF 27 Finale Risk $5134.80

Brad Tavares (+150) vs Israel Adesanya $200.00 for $300.00
Not Israel Adesanya inside distance (-140) $140.00 for $100.00
Brad Tavares wins by submission (+745) $30.00 for $223.50
Brad Tavares wins by 5 round unanimous decision (+425) $25.00 for $106.25
Brad Tavares/Israel Adesanya time out in fight (+210) ~$26.00 for ~$54.60

Joe Giannetti (-155) vs Mike Trizano $155.00 for $100.00
Joe Giannetti wins by submission (+145) $30.00 for $43.50

Brad Katona/Jay Cucciniello Over 2½ (-135) $135.00 for $100.00

Alex Caceres (-120) vs Martín Bravo $120.00 for $100.00
Alex Caceres wins by submission (+570) $20.00 for $114.00

Barb Honchak (-166) vs Roxanne Modafferi $332.00 for $200.00
Barb Honchak wins by 3 round decision (-120) $60.00 for $50.00
Roxanne Modafferi wins by TKO/KO (+1665) $30.00 for $499.50

Julian Marquez (-155) vs Alessio Di Chirico $465.00 for $300.00
Alessio Di Chirico (+145) vs Julian Marquez $200.00 for $290.00
Julian Marquez wins by TKO/KO (+170) $30.00 for $51.00
Julian Marquez/Alessio Di Chirico won’t start round 3 (-122) $48.80 for $40.00

Rachael Ostovich (+155) vs Montana De La Rosa $100.00 for $155.00
Rachael Ostovich wins inside distance (+405) $25.00 for $101.25
Rachael Ostovich wins in round 3 (+1600) $10.00 for $160.00
Rachael Osotovich wins by submission in round 3 (+1900) ~$13.00 for ~$247.00
Rachael Osotovich/Montana De La Rosa fight ends in submission (+188) ~$32.50 for ~$61.10

Luis Pena (-336) vs Richie Smullen $1,008.00 for $300.00
Luis Pena (-230) vs Richie Smullen $230.00 for $100.00
Luis Pena wins inside the distance (-140) $42.00 for $30.00
Luis Pena wins inside the distance (-143) ~$84.50 for ~$59.09
Luis Pena wins by TKO/KO (+150) $40.00 for $60.00
Luis Pena wins in round 1 (+145) $40.00 for $58.00
Luis Pena wins in round 3 (+900) $15.00 for $135.00
Luis Pena/Richie Smullen Under 1½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00

John Gunther (-105) vs Allan Zuniga $105.00 for $100.00

Tyler Diamond (-155) vs Bryce Mitchell $155.00 for $100.00

Matt Bessette (-160) vs Steven Peterson $160.00 for $100.00
Matt Bessette wins inside distance (+300) $35.00 for $105.00

Oskar Piechota (-165) vs Gerald Meerschaert $165.00 for $100.00
Oskar Piechota (-185) vs Gerald Meerschaert $185.00 for $100.00
Oskar Piechota wins in round 1 (+195) $30.00 for $58.50
Oskar Piechota wins by KO/TKO/DQ in round 1 (+320) ~$26.00 for ~$83.20
Oskar Piechota/Gerald Meerschaert Under 1½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00
Oskar Piechota/Gerald Meerschaert won’t start round 3 (-174) $87.00 for $50.00

Parlay:
Oskar Piechota (-220) vs Gerald Meerschaert + Luis Pena (-327) vs Richie Smullen $250.00 for $224.84

Added some last minute event props right before they pulled them:

Fights to end in KO/TKO over 3½ (+137) $40.00 for $54.80
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 4½ (+385) $25.00 for $96.25
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 5½ (+1137) $15.00 for $170.55

Added: John Gunther (-125) vs Allan Zuniga $250.00 for $200.00

Gunther and Zuniga may be the 2 worst fighters i have seen in UFC this year.

Adalaide Byrd, who is still allowed to judge, gave the win to Alessio Di Chirico. Effing NSAC.