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Originally Posted by SwoopAE
Appreciate the insight Malachii i'll have to watch some more tape if I decide to fire. Originally thought Pereira would bully her too and a loss to Suarez is nothing to be ashamed of. I don't know enough about Yan will watch a bit more of her.
Does anyone else think Nijem +200ish is value vs Foster on the random upcoming PFL card? Foster is a million years old and Nijem's faced legit competition and his loss to Holbrook was a robbery. Yeah Nijem is lower UFC level, but really, +200 vs Foster? He can strike, he can grapple, he's a pretty solid all around guy.
I agree Cerrone price is a bit high I originally was hoping to get Edwards in a pickem but Cerrone is still dangerous even if he can't really take a shot anymore. Not firing yet but might consider closer to the fight. Historically bad at picking Cerrone fights but i've been better in the last two years I think I got his last one wrong but was right a few in a row before that. Before that I remember I picked a ton of his fights wrong on a row.
That DC price for 226 is getting pretty solid too. Yes, Stipe will have a size advantage but DC is still the better wrestler and grappler even with a size disadvantage. Both have power in their hands and a good but not uncrackable chin, i've faded DC a heap overall but this feels like a spot to back him I can't see how he's more than +200 vs Stipe here. Stipe may have a more title defenses than Cain, but he isn't the dominant monster Cain was in his prime by any means skillset wise imo. Like if Stipe had to fight his streak of title defenses again, i'd expect him to lose one more often than not and DC has still only ever been outclassed by Jon Jones on steroids and the second fight was competitive until the finish.
Still love the Holloway price obv but line doesn't seem to be going anywhere so not in a rush to lock it in
Medeiros could be value at +2xx vs Perry even coming off a loss, in my mind they're similar level fighters. Might have to watch more tape there.
Loved Chiesa the first time they were scheduled to fight but -160 seems about right
Almost definitely going to be on Ngannou to win by KO if the line is -200 or better too
So many good fights on paper at 226 really looking forward to it
226 looks great. Agree on DC - have a decent sized bet on him at an average price of +240 (!), which is insane considering he's Daniel frickin' Cormier.
I don't see any way that Ngannou loses to The Black Beast and took him at -325. If he loses I'm going to be pissed, lol.
I decided to fire Chiesa. I'm pissed because I had him at like +105 in their first fight and now I'm taking him at -160, but I just think he's going to be too much for Pettis to handle. Pettis has bad hands and I think he's going to struggle a lot against a guy with Chiesa's size and reach who can push him backwards with his boxing. If I was going to make the line on this fight I'd set it at like -225, so think there's some value at -160.
Also like Khalil Roundtree, I've already bet the max I feel comfortable wagering on this one so don't mind sharing it. I think Gokhan Saki is a very talented striker but if you watch his first fight he was completely gassed out at the end of the first round and got lucky to score his KO. Not that Khalil is a cardio powerhouse either, but he's got much better cardio than Saki and is a dangerous guy with big power. I don't think that Gokhan has shown enough to be priced as a favorite against Khalil in an MMA match, so happy to take Khalil at +155 for a medium sized position here.
Have some other fights I want to look at too, but haven't had chance to watch enough tape to have a firm opinion on them.
For the upcoming Fight Night I have Cerrone at average price of +180 and OSP at +125.