I'd bet the farm on RDA if those were anywhere close to odds, but yes lets see. Appreciate your insight, in end you could very well could be right and I am underestimating Colby ability to dominate with his wrestling. After all, colby was begging for dos anjos the moment he entered the welterweight division.

Remember RDA/Pettis for lightweight title, RDA was +405 on 5dimes, and we all know how that turned out, it was one of the most dominant performances i've ever seen, roids or not. One of us clearly will be dead wrong with our thesis and it will be a fun night of fights. cheers.

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thats a very good point...if RDA can't stop covington wrestling, it is very likely to be like you said top heavy pounding ! for 5 rounds mmmm ? mmmmmmm thats brutal stuff for 5 rounds

just personal opinion ,i just think RDA is elite athlete which can be an equalizer, too high fight iq to really get own technically at this point of his career !! unless of an overwhelming manhandle 'GSP' 'khabid' alike kind of wrestling....if RDA match the wrestling part..is't gonna be a long fkn night for covington shin bones to the calf ect !!
set the ego apart
idk theres so much value in that fight like most of the top 5 vs top 5...they are so well rounded skill wise if you compare to other fighters/matchup with huge advantage/flaws in their mma game

If Romero wins it pretty much has to be by KO right (in r3 ofc lol), i'd be very shocked if he can decision Whittaker when he's not on one leg given he couldn't do it when Whittaker had a hurt leg in the first fight in a 5 rounder - I think Whittaker wins, but if Romero does it basically has to be by KO imo for those that prefer the other side. I'd have taken Whittaker at -150, but passing now that its past -200.

I've faded Covington and RDA too much overall and lower on both than Woodley (who i've also faded a lot) and Usman (who i've backed in all of his fights where he wasn't a -500 fav or whatever). Seems like an obvious 50-45 Covington or RDA finish, no way Colby can take five rounds of being beaten up standing and RDA is pretty tough to finish on the ground but is unlikely to submit Covington from the bottom all that often.

Tuivasa probably hulk smashes Arlovski but he has a huge skill deficiency overall so i'd say Arlovski is probably value at +230 as if Tuivasa doesn't finish him in the first 7 minutes or so he's going to lose.

No idea what to make of Punk vs Jackson both of them looked absolutely awful vs Mickey Gall, kind of tempted by Punk as a dog but the idea of betting on him feels utterly ******ed so i'm just going to leave it alone - if Punk was 10 years younger i'd take him as he's been training for a few years at Roufusport now, but being old at 170 matters a lot more than it does at HW, obviously this fight would be fine on a random regional undercard between two guys who are 0-1 as a pro but pretty lol on a PPV main card, that said i'm on board because it will bring buys and exposure for the other fighters on the card and i'm curious how the Punk story will end, this is the end of the road for him obviously if he can't win this one vs a 0-1 can - it would be cool if he managed to win this then one day beat a legit member of the UFC roster through hard work but that's such an unlikely outcome. I hope we at least get to see him throw a real punch or kick and/or go for a real submission attempt though.

Rashad is washed up but he's been to split decisions with guys who are about as good as Smith in his last couple fights so I don't mind him as a decent dog, i'm not really impressed by Smith at all.

I'd be kind of shocked if Benavidez doesn't beat Pettis, but not sure i'm willing to lay the -2xx straight up, might take a sub prop though. If Alex Caceres can do it... granted Pettis is young and improving, but Benavidez will be light years ahead of him on the ground and has no reason to stand and trade if he can get a takedown and submit him. I think i'll be on JB by sub here and when he wins this he's finally earned that third and final crack at MM imo.

If the Guida by decision line is good enough vs Oliveira I might consider it. I think Oliveira finishes him a TON more often despite being very finishable, but I also think Guida usually wins if it goes the distance.

Pretty good card overall, Bektic vs Lamas, Holm vs Anderson, Reem vs Blaydes etc i'm looking forward to it

Rashad Coulter is also pretty terrible so might take De La Rocha as a dog but have to look at some tape first they're both coming off back to back knockouts and although Tuivasa is technically deficient he's also a hulk smash strength and size HW so that's not too bad a loss.

I think i'll be on Benavidez sub or ITD and Evans as a dog, I think I get 1/2 there more often than not and the odds will be pretty attractive.

One of my locals has Whittaker at -208 still, given it's -250 on 5d and -235 on Pinny figured i'd take some now, can always hedge with Romero KO if I change my mind since I do think Whittaker wins plus I want to cheer for him

Going to hold off for now on Rashad since underdogs odds tend to improve more often than not as we get closer to the fight

Will wait for more books to open props for Benavidez sub or ITD or sub or dec props depending on prices so I can find the right prop but def taking it in some capacity just going to wait for more props.

One of my locals has some interesting props for the main - most significant strikes according to fightmetric is Whittaker -222 Romero +140, most takedowns is Whittaker +400 Romero -833. Obviously vig is absurd, but I wonder if Whittaker is more likely to land more sig strikes than he is to win straight up given Romero has more KO power but Whittaker's way more likely to be a volume striker - the only problem with it is GnP would could if Whittaker got taken down and Romero landed some GnP for a round it adds up fast. I hope they offer similar props for all the other fights closer to fight day and not just the main.

haha well said. I remember we both took punk as kind of a fun pickem the first time around but if I were to bet on him again in any capacity I think I would need to get my head checked.

Yeah I took him at like +450 last time out thinking Gall might not be UFC level but it turns out he is even if lower level. Backed Gall twice since going 1-1. Obviously in hindsight that was ******ed, but Gall is also way better than he was supposed to be as Punk's hand-picked opponent, he's actually a lower-mid level UFC standard guy who might become upper-mid level if he continues to improve as he's still very green. Jackson on the other hand obviously isn't UFC level or even close to it, although exactly how good/bad he is is a bit of a mystery.

We know obviously that Punk isn't going to magically become a UFC level fighter at all now, but with an extra couple years of training he should be better than he was last time, and he's fighting a guy who also lost to Gall badly and faster than he did.

I have no idea if Mike Jackson is utterly incompetent at MMA or just outmatched by UFC level fighters, i'd say this would be a pick'em fight except that Jackson is younger and has a combat sports background so he's rightfully the fav even if neither guy has ever won an MMA fight.

Jackson definitely doesn't have the financial resources Punk does in terms of training full time for several years straight, but he does have a boxing/kickboxing background whereas Punk was effectively a stuntman prior to his training.

I wouldn't feel comfortable backing either side at the current prices, but I hope Punk wins just because at the end of the day he was a millionaire living comfortably as one of the biggest draws in pro wrestling and he still could be if he wanted to, even with his issues with WWE he would probably be the biggest draw on the indies/japan in pro wrestling if he wanted to go back and he decided to take a shot at real fighting for way less money with no prior background in his late 30s and he's actually dedicated several years of his life to training to try and do it properly.

If he managed to somehow win this fight in the UFC, he'd beat a guy with a legitimate combat sports background even if he's basically a can by professional MMA standards and that's a pretty cool accomplishment for a guy who doesn't take steroids and has no athletic background, afaik all of the other pro wrestlers who had any success in MMA at all either had an athletic background or were basically roid-monsters or both.

Away on holiday at the moment so not made any bets for this weekend card.

Knew I should have locked up money on Stipe earlier when he was around 1.55, missed the boat big time now he is at 1.4. Won't back him at that price.

Back in England Friday and think I'll be backing Romero by KO mainly due to Whittaker's layoff. Mainly just to have some action on the card as most of the odds I originally liked Blaydes and Gaedlha have come in too much for me to back at this point.

Am I the only one loving the Lamas +190 line?

yes

The more I think about it the more I think Covington is going to be able to use his size advantage to wrestle**** RDA, haven't fired yet but considering getting on. Gross because I want to see him lose but I don't think he loses here, I think he gets lit up by Usman or Woodley standing when he faces a guy he can't take down and those two both fit the bill. Covington is a massive dickhead, and even if it's all an act it's so fake he's just a wanker for lack of a better description but I feel like the smart money might be on him to get the job done vs RDA. Will probably fire straight up rather than the dec prop just because it's a 5 rounder and not a huge gap in price.

If we're taking Lamas vs Bektic i'd be tempted to take Lamas by KO, Bektic should be able to outwork him to a pretty lopsided decision unless he gets caught the way he did against Elkins. I don't have a play though one of my locals had -180 on Bektic but I missed it, leaving it above -200 now as Lamas is good and does have KO power and decent subs too.

Gadelha still -357 at one of my locals, considering playing it just because it's an arb against Pinny but i'm not a huge fan of fading Esparza at that price in what could easily be a competitive decision. Obviously Gadelha is the better overall fighter, but that's a big price to lay when it's two top 10 WMMA fighters with all the variance in WMMA.

RDA is a 3rd degree BJJ black belt, he isn't going to be helpless on the ground vs Colby.

Against a top wrestler on your back BJJ doesn't do much. RDA has a short frame so I certainly don't see an arm bar or triangle landing. He will need to use the cage to try and stand up as he did against Khahib.

Frankly guys this is the best card on paper we've had in at least a year. I'm counting over 8 fights that could be a Main Event on a Fox Card. Great stuff and eagerly await your guys predictions as it's going to be a long night for me watching.

i would snap that -357 so hard if i were you. gadelha is literally better than esparza everywhere except for maybe cardio. she's also so much stronger. i'm gonna pass on the -500 cause its -500 but i think below 4 you should bomb that.

i just think esparza won't be able to get claudia down early in the fight when CG has a full tank and gadelha's gonna bomb on her on the feet like only JJ has been able to do. I expect carla to crumble every single time early in this fight. i really like the u/2.5 in this fight also. +250

I agree with this. RDA did look relatively good against Khabib, which is one of the things that gives me pause. And by relatively good, I mean he didn't get beaten to a pulp the way Barboza did and was able to scramble to his feet a couple of times, although he still lost decisively.

However, submissions against an elite wrestler are just so difficult, especially after the first round when they're both slick with sweat and blood. It could certainly happen but it's not very likely IMO.

im gonna fade the rda fight. i think maybe colby has a smallll amount of value but i love rda and hate colby so i want to maintain full sweat equity. i don't think its a super sick spot either way.

Money came in on Colby very quickly this evening. 2 more units on RDA +115. RDA is an elite fighter and Colby has to prove he can beat RDA for me to think he is elite. I also can't stomach that fake douche Colby winning.

Might end up passing Covington since i missed the steam and I do really want RDA to kick his ass because he's an insufferable fake douchebag. His striking really is terrible, but he's going to have a big size and wrestling advantage. Might wait for weigh ins to see just how big the size advantage is and go accordingly from here

I think it's close enough that I might wait for weigh ins on the rest of the fights now and bet last minute on my leans if they look good and pass if they don't.

Totally get where you guys are coming from. Colby is a world class douche and I had to hold my nose before betting him on. I just like the match up for him.

Also is it just me or is Team Alpha Male a really good camp? If you look at the improvement that guys like Guida and Northcutt have made since moving there, it's been pretty impressive. I guess we'll see how Guida does this weekend, but it seems like he's been experiencing a late career renaissance ever since leaving Greg Jackson's camp (who always seemed super overrated to me.)

Anyways, enough procrastination, time to get to work, lol.

i only have every MMA line move since 2005 so my data may be incomplete but this is an incorrect statement.

PFL 1Risk $1400.55

Andre Harrison/Jumabieke Tuerxun Under 2½ (-115) ~$130.05 for ~$113.08

Lance Palmer (+114) vs Bekbulat Magomedov ~$99.45 for ~$113.38

Timur Valiev (-285) vs Max Coga $285.00 for $100.00

Alex Nicholson (+180) vs Jake Heun $100.00 for $180.00
Jake Heun (+145) vs Alex Nicholson ~$84.15 for ~$122.02

Jack May (+288) vs Josh Copeland ~$38.25 for ~$110.16

Marcos Galvao (+120) vs Nazareno Malegarie $100.00 for $120.00
Marcos Galvao (+122) vs Nazareno Malegarie ~$91.80 for ~$112.00

Caio Alencar (-120) vs Kelvin Tiller $120.00 for $100.00
Caio Alencar (-130) vs Kelvin Tiller $130.00 for $100.00

Francimar Barroso (-190) vs Daniel Gallemore ~$221.85 for ~$116.75

yeah i tough about fight , guida is in a good spot right now ...he still had it, oliveira quit's easily but so tailor-made for guida who's vulnerable to high-quality choke :S:S:
i feel if somebody needs to deliver and redeem imselft is't lamas ..he has more chance to get a decision then guida a ko / surviving oliveira on the ground!
high risk not worth it

the odds shift since https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvcW8LONUlU
wrestling ability looks A1..scary stuff but again most expert say RDA could be out wrestle but not out grappled