Added some Teymur +175 vs Arce just because it's an arb vs Pinny. He's not the good Teymur, but whatever this one's just a because the market said so play. Going to try to get some more on Eubanks, just need to find the right spot.

i liked daniel at +175. i was watching it to see if it would go higher. he dominated his first round in his ufc debut vs a super tough british guy danny henry (tough but not rly skilled). i did some instagram snooping, he got the call on july 6th for his fight on july 16th of last year. he'd been married the end of june and was on his honeymoon when he got the call. i doubt he was in the gym hard the weeks leading up to his wedding. he gassed super hard after hitting henry with the kitchen sink in the first round so you can maybe infer that he only gassed due to the short notice of his first ufc fight. however, he's won all 7 of his other fights in the first round so no real way to know what his tank really is. that said, dominating the regional circuit bodes really well for having success in the ufc... i was gonna pull at +175 or higher but now that its 150 i'm not sure if the risk of him gassing is worth it. its late-ish in the card so if i've hit on everything else, maybe i still pull at 150.

I like ben saunders @ +150 against ellenburger.

i know both get finished, ben has lost his last 2.

but Jake has lost 4 of his last 5 fights, and is 2-7 over the last 9 fights. granted most of these fights are against the very elite of the 170 division. most are top 10 guys.

Ben should have reach, a really good defensive guard, lots of experience against a clearly done ellenburger.

also +1 to eubanks, seems like it should be worse odds. shes def going in many of my bets, im just doing a bunch of 3 and 4 leg parlays so should be an e z leg to win.

so alvey can look terrible or great imo because of his high activity in the UFC (he fights A LOT) and ive never seen villante not bring it 100% war. sure both fighters arnt great on technique but im leaning villante for sure.

also rivera +100 and is 17-1 hasnt lost in 10 years? decision is +200 and he loves to do that. but 5 rounds though....ehhh...


moraes is a beast tho, that sterling KO was so sick.


David teymur... the better one... looks good against lentz for -110 to win by judges. lentz last 3 losses have all been by judges cards. davids last 2 wins both judges. the price is too bad at -334 straight up. so ill take the -110

got torres, aguilar, green, eubanks, and villante

UFN 131 Risk $2718.00

Jimmie Rivera (+100) vs Marlon Moraes $200.00 for $200.00
Jimmie Rivera (+100) vs Marlon Moraes $200.00 for $200.00
Jimmie Rivera +5½ points (-215) $215.00 for $100.00
Jimmie Rivera wins by 5 round decision (+170) $75.00 for $127.50
Jimmie Rivera wins by 5 round unanimous decision (+235) $40.00 for $94.00

Gregor Gillespie/Vinc Pichel Over 2½ (+107) $40.00 for $42.80

Walt Harris/Daniel Spitz Under 1½ (-154) $77.00 for $50.00

Ben Saunders (+155) vs Jake Ellenberger $100.00 for $155.00
Ben Saunders wins by TKO/KO (+579) $20.00 for $115.80

Daniel Teymur (+155) vs Julio Arce $200.00 for $310.00
Daniel Teymur +3½ points (-150) $150.00 for $100.00
Daniel Teymur wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+558) $20.00 for $111.60

Gian Villante +3½ points (-155) vs Sam Alvey $155.00 for $100.00

Sijara Eubanks (-155) vs Lauren Murphy $465.00 for $300.00

David Teymur/Nik Lentz Under 2½ (+243) $40.00 for $97.20

Belal Muhammad -3½ points (-170) vs Chance Rencountre $85.00 for $50.00

Desmond Green/Gleison Tibau Under 2½ (+215) $40.00 for $86.00

Jessica Aguilar (-105) vs Jodie Esquibel $210.00 for $200.00

Johnny Eduardo/Nathaniel Wood Under 1½ (-117) $58.50 for $50.00

Jose Torres (-145) vs Jarred Brooks $145.00 for $100.00
Jose Torres (-145) vs Jarred Brooks $145.00 for $100.00

Walt Harris wins POTN bonus (+304) ~$7.50 for ~$22.80
Ben Saunders wins POTN bonus (+400) ~$7.50 for ~$30.00
Daniel Teymur wins POTN bonus (+420) ~$7.50 for ~$31.50
Nathaniel Wood wins POTN bonus (+300) ~$7.50 for ~$22.50

Daniel Teymur/Julio Arce wins FOTN bonus (+304) ~$7.50 for ~$22.80

no bet but i think eduardo is pretty live here.

wow so happy i didnt bet eduardo, if he was winning and pulled guard like that i'd have been rip****.

Green was my lock this card, tibau is finished without roids

that prelim finish tho



was right bout better david by dec! XD

villante really believe he can win fights by walking foward lolll
i had alvey on all my props the god damn split desicion was a sweat !
now here my biggest clue of the card...saunders over ellenberger ,because idk his chin will ever recover even after one year lay off !! but skill wise ist another story ...if he got stun one way or another ist done by sub in seconds!! hehe
gl

ben saunders merked him lol


now just need rivera to win to get paid. lost a few of em cuz villante failed but, still lookin like it could be good night

Took a little Rivera -105 to close out my card, 1-1 with Eubanks winning and my market only play losing.

Lame at least I went small on Rivera. Also closed at arb price vs Pinny but evidently that does not help lol, he got wrecked. Small loss for the card, all 3 bets were smaller than usual though, prob should have gone harder on Eubanks but hindsight etc

Thoughts on Covington and RDA next week?

Cov is so much bigger and younger. Feels like a bad matchup for RDA.

i end up having 2 props with riveva winnings / and winning by decision ...none less to say it didnt happen !for 800 total
but i wonder why between my last 3 fight of that combo i couldn't cashout like i was able to do before? 365 told me trader/market ect any site that dont mess with your ability to cash out a profit when they feel ist better for them to do otherwise ??? omg what a bs

probably easy fight for rda

Skill gap is too big?

I feel like Covington can pressure him similar to how Khabib did a few years ago. He's just got such a size advantage and he's a sick wrestler.

And it is only a 3 rd fight which helps him I think.

Its 5 rounds for the interim WW title.

imo yeah exactly , rda wrestling improve a lot since the nurmagomedov !!
and he did well against lawyer !! but anobody can get caught im probably a notch to high on rda anyways i think rda stand up is too sharp for covington !
hes strong enough, very agile

Glory 54 Risk $1182.50

Rico Verhoeven/Mladen Brestovac Over 2½ (-130) $65.00 for $50.00
Rico Verhoeven wins by KO/TKO/DQ (-134) ~$37.50 for ~$27.99

Alim Nabiev (+100) vs Harut Grigorian $100.00 for $100.00
Alim Nabiev (-105) vs Harut Grigorian $105.00 for $100.00
Alim Nabiev (-110) vs Harut Grigorian $110.00 for $100.00
Alim Nabiev/Harut Grigorian Under 3½ (-110) $110.00 for $100.00

Bailey Sugden (-120) vs Aleksei Ulianov $120.00 for $100.00
Bailey Sugden (-130) vs Aleksei Ulianov $130.00 for $100.00

Adrian Maxim (+175) vs Chenlong Zhang $100.00 for $175.00

Danyo Ilunga (-130) vs Fraser Weightman $130.00 for $100.00
Danyo Ilunga/Fraser Weightman Under 2½ (+140) $75.00 for $105.00

Josh Jauncey (+150) vs Christian Baya $100.00 for $150.00

Thoughts on UFC 225? I have Covington at +105 (which I continue to believe is a very mispriced line), Anthony Smith at -300, Curtis Blaydes at -125 (bet this one a while ago, line has since moved), and Clay Guida at average price of +137.5.

Tempted to bet on Romero but how often does the old guy beat the young guy in a rematch after he loses the first time?

Otherwise nothing else looks that tempting at first glance, but I haven't had time to look at any of the other fighters in detail. Should have some time later this week to watch some tape though, so might find some other bets that I like.

what makes you think that? I am a bit biased, but here is my opinion anyway. swoopae, any action on this one?

I think RDA is a much better striker, has faced way tougher competition, and Colby is nothing special that RDA has not already seen. Both guys are very motivated and expect both to have great gas tanks but I'd give edge to RDA in cardio. only 3 rounds? So I guess this is less important.

Lets recall a few of RDA's losses, the one against tony ferguson showed just how good his striking is and while he did lose it was reasonably close and two of judges had him losing by just 1 point and this was after an eye polk which clearly showed a different in performance before and after. if you are going 5 rounds in mexico city altitude with one of top strikers in world then i just dont see how colby has done anything in his career to show this level of striking and cardio. watched the maia fight a few times, and wasn't impressed with striking from either. there is levels to this.

RDA's fight against khabib was probably his worst loss in terms of being dominated, but khabib manages to do this to everyone. I'd argue RDA did pretty well against khabib given that he is facing one of the best grapplers in history of mma. He has improved from that fight and gotten a lot better working a lot with wrestling coach Jacob Harman since that fight. I believe this older khabib/rda fight is key in piecing together the colby matchup, if khabib held dos anjos down and unleashed vicious ground and pound for most of the rounds that would be one thing, but he managed to get back to his feet multiple times. can colby keep him down and for how long? seems likely there will be plenty of time for striking.


I'd argue woodley is a very bad match up for RDA while someone like colby very well should be the underdog in this particular bout. Hope the line moves in favor of Colby towards fight time, but doubt it, so I think RDA anywhere near evens is great value and at current price, maybe a little value, but probably close to the correct line (go figure right?). Its a fight and anything can happen but think RDA clearly deserves the nod. Clearly could be underestimating colby but his resume and persona speaks of a hype machine who talked his way into the interim belt more then a legit future champion. with that said, think both will be big underdogs against woodley. not sure what brendan schaub is smoking when he says RDA is a bad matchup for woodley, its literally the opposite.


Current line:

Rafael Dos Anjos -130
Risk
1.00
Win
0.77

Colby Covington EVEN
Risk
1.00
Win
1.00

Even though he is coming back from the Ngannou KO, I like Overeem at the improved price of +158 vs Curtis Blaydes. Overeem has pretty good takedown defense and if it stays on the feet he is a far superior striker.

I don't really want to debate this too much, but I guess I'll basically just say that I agree with you that RDA is a far better striker than Colby Covington. I'd also agree that he's faced tougher competition in the Octagon, although Colby trains at American Top Team so I'm sure he's sparred with plenty of elite guys.

But at the end of the day, I'm not really sure how much either of those two points matter. RDA is an undersized welterweight who hasn't fought an elite wrestler at 170. Fighting an elite wrestler is a different animal - it doesn't matter if you're a better striker than a wrestler if the wrestler can put you on your back and beat you up for 5 rounds.

So, we'll see what happens. Maybe RDA can consistently stuff the takedown and win in the clinch. Maybe RDA can submit him. Maybe RDA can catch him with a knee to the face when he's going for a takedown and KO him. All of those things are possible. I just don't think those are the most likely outcomes. In fact, I think Colby probably deserves to be about a 2-1 favorite, so I love him at +105.

Just my two cents though. We'll see what happens.