Yeah I'm all over wonderboy.

I like calculating your picks every week.

Do you post them early, or nah?

My analysis of this next card and plays I like off the top of my head:

Going to go with Wonderboy.. good luck Till.

Going to be hard for WB to win in Liverpool, but he's so hard to figure out and I think he's on a different level than Till. I gotta go with my gut here.

I'm wondering what the line will be on McCann.. I can't find anything posted anywhere but I'll probably try and jump on that line immediately.. if you don't know about McCann... google her.

Also, a fight that everyone should jump on early is the Sijara vs Lauren Murphy fight.. Sijara is a BEAST before she joined Mark Henry... and now paired with Mark Henry? Good luck.

I'll add some more stuff in as lines release.

Backed Michael Page at 1.36 against Rickels.
Good match up on paper fighting a lightweight, will have a big reach advantage.
Rickels isn't great at closing the distance, seems like an ideal show case for Page in front of a home crowd.

Tilt shoved my whole ACR balance on Thompson this morning at -165 and now in the afternoon he's -125, fml.

Just backed Till on a load of European bookies at 2.4.
Nice arb to had as prices are still there if anyone is reading.

Wonderboy went from -165 to -121 in a day? Don't seem steam like that 5 days before a fight too often. Wonder what is up w/ that?

I saw the -121 on pinny and assumed it was a mistake, then checked other sites and it isn't.

Wonderboy is actually a +125 underdog at the Westgate right now while also being a -170 favorite on Bovada.

i kind of feel like there's a strong chance till will gas in this fight if he's constantly pressuring but getting hit as he's moving forward. it wouldn't shock me if till lands something clean but i dunno cerrone is awful at dealing with pressure and everyone's super hyped on till off that one fight.

no idea what game plan till team would opt too , but thompson is a counter striker an till seem to be a pressure fighter himself !! thompson pedigree speak by itself...even if we know how good till really his in the end imo is't really unliekly that he reach an effective level to match thompson counter striking !
he gonna get own but he can crack hehe

Tills almost certainly going to press forward m, stay in range and try to land the left. Lots of leg kicks to herd around the range. Thompson is certainly going to try to stay at range and dart in and out

WB +110 pretty widely available right now seems way too good to be true. Could just be one big punter put half a mil or whatever on Till, but i'm not firing until I know he's fine and I see him weigh in now. Obviously I love WB at that price and think he's more like a -200 fav but that's some very concerning steam in favour of the hometown fighter. Will wait and see how it pans out if WB starts moving back in I don't mind too much if I get him at evens but if he heads out to +150 or more or something then there's something seriously wrong either an undisclosed injury or weight cut issue or something more underhanded going on. Will wait and see hopefully it's just one big punter and the market bounces back a bit and I can just jump on at evens on weigh in day or something.

Pretty bad card for me last time out went 1-3 and roughly lost my profits back from the previous card.

I am not following this game as closed as I used to. Just checked in and WB +110. I quickly put down a hundo. Am I missing some insider info here? Curious if WB injured or something happened I didn't know about...

That's the only reason I haven't loaded up I want to see him weighing in healthy due to the steam in the other direction. I liked him at -150 so to see the line move to +110 randomly in a day seems odd/messed up so i'll wait. If it starts moving back i'll have plenty of time to get on and if it turns out he has a sprained wrist or whatever (just a random example I don't know of anything) I won't end up in bad in the event he fights through an injury or whatever.

Will obviously be all over Eubanks vs Murphy if that fight happens if the line is reasonable; watched the season and thought Eubanks was the fav (even though I was cheering for Nicco and/or Roxy to beat her)

Will be on WB + probably WB decision as well.

Sort of tempted by Knight but I want to do some more research. I remember being very impressed by him but missed his most recent loss.

Magny is pretty tempting even at -524 just because is he really going to lose 1 in 5 times to a regional fighter on short notice? Sure he has flaws but his opponent is a 14-7 regional fighter with no good wins on short notice and Magny is a legit top 15 and probably top 10ish fighter.

I originally liked Kelly/Breese to go the distance but have backed off a bit will probably pass

Might look into Davey Grant a bit more. I wasn't super impressed with him in his TUF season even though from memory he was runner up, he's been inactive due to injury but only for a year and a bit and +2xx is tempting for a home town fighter against a guy who has never beaten anyone good - will need to look into how good Manny Bermudez looked in his last fight as i'm pretty sure I saw it but can't remember it. He doesn't have any good wins though despite being 11-0.

Kind of want Theodorou by decision but worried he might finish.

Kind of want Spiceley by submission or just straight up too but need to rewatch his opponent's fights, he's lost 3 in a row though including being subbed twice and is probably only in the UFC due to being English

Line movement is very shady on WB. How can a guy that had a draw against Dalby by getting outstriked in a 10-8 round 3 ever be considered a favorite over the greatest stiker in mma? I think the fix is in and word got out, the Liverpool gangsters got to WB and told him to take a dive or he can take a nap from which he will never awake.

Think its likely Wonderboy has some sort of minor injury.
Broken finger or something.

Lots of hype on Till but line movement seems crazy.
Have a decent profit already on this due to arbing so hoping it goes ahead.
Seen a few people touting Mads Burnell as a decent underdog, can't remember him at all myself. So will do some tape watching tomorrow night.

Doubt WB has an injury.

The hype for Till has just went mainstream though. Rogan/GSP/BBB all broke down why they like Till.. ect etc all about Till this Till that.

Moved the line single handily.

The fact it is in LP scares me if it goes to decision lol.

Hard to believe WB is a small underdog, it's been a while since I've put money on the table but couldn't resist for this one. I suspect people forgot how good he is after his last couple snooze-fests with Woodley.

Till just claimed he currently weights 210+lbs on twitter, probably just mind games but lol if he misses weight

Moicano vs Swanson announced, hoping to get Moicano as any sort of dog here, i've been really impressed by him in the UFC so far. Moicano by sub or decision prop would be a great bet too if the price is decent

Hunt vs Oleinik rumoured for Russia, seems like Hunt wins via easy KO unless Oleinik can get him down quickly

WB price still seems absurd but i'm waiting for weigh ins to decide if I fire and if so how hard

Exactly!

I emptied my puny balance at evens on WB. I really wish I could put more money on this fight.

I'm not an expert or anything like some guys who post here, but I've never felt so confident about a pick in my life.

I predict this fight will show that WB should've been a -300 to -400 fav

till hype is beyong reason at that point , he didnt fight top 15 before cerone and like what bisping said in this interview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysUo6V1emHs ...hes a slow starter ect Cerone boxing is the weakest part of his game too !

anyways , i think bisping said it all there

The thing that scares me is if we all like WB as semi-hardcore fans/sports bettors then who the hell moved the line from -150 to +110 in a day? Casual action might do that over a week but not in a single day.

It's since come back to a pickem but that's really concerning that sort of money in one day has to be sharp or syndicate action or a single whale with a six figure bet at least to move the market. It could be a 'vegas dave' type situation (I forget if thats the guy, he bet 1m on Tate vs Nunes and apparently bet a ton on Holm vs Rousey etc) where one guy just likes a fighter and smashes it for the max a bunch of times which moves the market everywhere else as well but who knows

I fully expect to be on WB but will probably just take a standard full bet for it due to the steam against instead of multiple units

Backed Burnell at 3.3 with Ladbrokes.
2.9 on Pinny now and unless Allen has made big leaps since his last fight then this should be pretty competitive.

I went searching, as best as I could with no "MMA network" to speak of, for any real news/rumors about WB that could explain the line movement. I didn't find anything and, while I'm not as high on WB as some here, I just struggle really hard to see WB as a dog not being value here. I got in at +102. Will be interesting to see if there's an obvious explanation after all is said and done, including if Till just starches him.

Till missed weight the bellend fight might not go ahead.
Got a really nice arb on this be gutted if its cancelled.

Till just missed weight by 3.5 pounds and won't cut any more, this after bragging about how he was 210 lbs 24 hours out from weigh in

What an unprofessional clown, I know he won't do it because it's ruin his standing in the UFC but Wonderboy should just refuse to fight him and tell him to **** off and be a professional. Fighters who miss weight keep winning and seem to be making a calculation that cheating is worth losing some of their purse. 0.5 lbs misses etc I can understand but anything more than 2-3 pounds is just absurd like Dern, Lineker all those times, Rumble back in the day and Till today. Khabib's missed a few times from memory too, Hendricks after he got fat and off roids, etc.

I think anyone who misses weight twice by more than a pound in less than say eight fights should be forced to move up a weight class for a minimum of 3 fights as a penalty or be cut.

Maybe the market knew Till didn't plan to cut the full amount of weight and that could be it?

WB should insist that he get a title shot with a win if he's going to fight a guy who missed by 3.5 lbs. Realistically he doesn't necessarily have the leverage to and the UFC would punish him if he refused the fight but he should at least ask for it publicly in exchange for accepting the fight prior to the fight

Also Nick Diaz arrested for domestic violence today, will wait for all the facts obv but always got a bit of a scumbag vibe from him that I didn't from Nate so doesn't surprise me that much.

Trying to decide how hard to go on WB here now and whether to get on Knight and Burnell