I like Nunes/Pennington starts round 2 at -240 and starts round 3 at -120. A little chalky, but Rocky has only been stopped once via submission by a prime Cat Zingano.

Anyone got any leans for Bellator?

Quite like Mir but with two years out its tough to back him.
He has the size and grappling advantage, probably at this point a better chin too.
Fedor is going to be the quicker fighter but I think Mir matches up fairly well with him.
Can get Mir at 1.8 at the moment which is tempting.

Just bet the under 1½ on Fedor/Mir at -140. I also hit Rafael Lovato Jr. at the -300 opener vs late replacement Gerald Harris.

ive been burned trying to predict the bellator heavyweights. its just a crapshoot whos aged less. i'm gonna pass on that type of variance. i probably take bader though, but thats more of a traditional fight than the other grand prix fights.

lol @ Demian Maia taking the Usman fight on short notice. He's got balls, that's for sure.

LFA 38 Risk $300.00

Maurice Greene (+145) vs Jeff Hughes $100.00 for $145.00
Maurice Greene (+145) vs Jeff Hughes $100.00 for $145.00
Maurice Greene (+137) vs Jeff Hughes $100.00 for $137.00

I like this match up for him. Maia has never lost in a grappling fight and Usman likes to wrestle. How good is Usman on the feet?
Can he stop the TD like Woodley? Will he want to? At this price I like Maia.

I'm pretty sure avoiding a grappling match with Maia is going to be pretty high on Usman's list of priorities, lol.

Maia's kryptonite is an elite wrestler who he can't take down since his striking is subpar and lacks power. We saw this against Woodley and we saw this against Covington, so what makes you think Usman is going to be any different?

i think usman is going to smash him. he never seems to struggle in the cage. maia is live for that lucky sub of course, if usman gets a bit too confidant and tries to take him to the ground.

Agree on the Brazillian home field advantage, I like Ramos, Leites, and Ferreira (would probably bet them anyways but am feeling a lot more confident about the whole situation given that they're fighting in Brazil.)

Tempted to bet on Gastelum too since I have a soft spot for him and he's got great hands and massive power, but would like to try to get him at like +150 or better. If Jacare can get him down Gastelum is going to have a lot of problems, but Gastelum does have good TDD, so we'll have to see. Should be a great fight.

And by get him down I mean get him down and hold him down. Gastelum is one of those guys who is very difficult to keep down even if you are able to temporarily get him to the mat, as far as I know the only person who has been able to do this to him is Weidman.

F.Mir vs F.Emelianenko
Fight Result (2 way):
Mir, Frank To Win
Stake: 50.00 Potential returns: 90.50
Price: 1.81

Mir is a survivor.. fedor is completely past this sell by date absolute, he should not be fighting any more.

Mir is not impressive in power but he stood and hung with Andrei Arlovski who got to move how he wanted which is highly dangerous, that is to say in theory Andrei Arlovski should have knocked out Mir but it didn't happen, its because Mir had a long period of big improvement with his hands and is a robust strong man, like he could be a farmer or some thing.

Mir will be able to plain and conceptualise this fight against Fedor,

It will be fedor getting in the cage with Mir, but 20 seconds of fedor... thats not going to be enough, he will get swamped by a lack of power mir taken down to the deck and Mir will do some thing crafty to end it.

Fedor has his name only, he is completely over the hill, he shouldn't be fighting any more.

It wont be Fedor in r2 or r3, if its fedor it will be by KO inside the first 1min then its all down hill till mir takes him out.

Bellator 198 Risk $1448.50

Frank Mir (-137) vs Fedor Emelianenko $685.00 for $500.00
Frank Mir wins in round 1 or 2 (+214) ~$93.50 for ~$200.09
Frank Mir/Fedor Emelianenko Under 1½ (-140) $140.00 for $100.00
Frank Mir wins by 3 round decision (+548) $40.00 for $219.20

Emmanuel Sanchez/Sam Sicilia Under 2½ (+210) $50.00 for $105.00

Rafael Lovato Jr. (-300) vs Gerald Harris $300.00 for $100.00

Dillon Danis/Kyle Walker Under 1½ (-140) $140.00 for $100.00

cant seem to get a link for the fights, anyone able to help?

reddit/mmastreams

loading up more on Mir, the way I see it sure Fedor can come out and blast Mir away but is that going to happen today mid way through 2018 with Mir a donkey work horse brick sht horse, .. just so much of Fedors game gone , look at what he depended on to get those crazy wins of yester year, its like chuck liddell, you could punch him as hard as you liked several times but as sure as chips he was going to nail you and hard with technque and you would crumple but he woundnt, but then one day even when he looked still great, it was gone inside.


Its not gone inside of Mir.... he is soild and fedor is gone.

This is free money and even if its not and I lose, as I bet this it is free money in my math of this set up, odds are good.250 to pick up 200 vs a guy with no chin, punch drunk glass jaw, Fedor is 60 years old inside, outside means nothing its about ageing inside,

I think Mir is going to rip Fedors head off once he gets through that blast fedor will be able to deliver, when your gone, tired, disorientated, never mind not operating on the very line of optimum timing, mir is going to have several options as fedor disintegrates.

We bet Mir here if for nothing else we know Fedor is gone completely 100%, it doesnt come back, there is no training routine to bring back 15 years of youth


#19. Bet Type: Single. Unsettled

F.Mir vs F.Emelianenko
Fight Result (2 way):
Mir, Frank To Win
Stake: 250.00 Potential returns: 445.00
Price: 1.78

#18. Bet Type: Single. Unsettled

F.Mir vs F.Emelianenko
Fight Result (2 way):
Mir, Frank To Win
Stake: 50.00 Potential returns: 90.50
Price: 1.81

Pretty crazy fight in the main.
Ended up with a arb on the main event rather then taking Mir straight up.
Marathon had Mir at 1.86 at one point with Fedor 2.25 at a few places.
Seems like Mir gave Fedor the fight he wanted and his highest % shot at winning.

Lovato's grappling looked awesome yesterday one to keep an eye on for sure.

Seems like the only two guys I can see winning the HWGP are Bader and Mitrione at this point.


Pretty sure I like Rivera at -115 vs Moraes

I think I like RDA at -121 vs Covington; Covington has to plant him on his back at the start of every round or he's getting knocked out but I guess RDA is getting old and could fall off a cliff at any moment

Holloway is a super snap bet at -176 vs Ortega imo although I may end up playing some Max TKO props too

I like TJ at -124 vs Cody. Mental edge and while both have somewhat questionable chins I trust TJ's more I think.

Rashad's best days are well behind him but is he really +260 vs Anthony Smith? Smith is not that good.

i think fedor has an absolute chance given his draw. cheal next should be a breeze, then if he gets matched up with mitrione he for sure has a punchers chance. i do agree the winner of bader/mitrione is the heavy favorite though, but it seems like fedor might be the close to the betting favorite right now just because of how much easier of a road to the finals he will have. fedors chin is absolutely spent though, so its def a kill or be killed first round fight in the finals. everyone is making their conspiracies about how they think chael will get "injured" and replaced by cro cop if he beats roy nelson but i cant see how bellator would want to muddy fedors path to the finals.

also rashad is awful imo, i couldnt imagine betting on him at this point.

Yeah feel the same with Rashad at this point.

Backed him against Alvey and Kelly thinking he isn't in his prime but he's ex Light Heavyweight champ. But he doesn't have it in him anymore.

Maybe if I can get the KO prop at like 8.00 I might bet it just because Smith is pretty wild.

Im going to be all over RDA to beat Covington. His only good win was againsr Maia. If it was 5 rds id bet itd but this fight is very important for both guys as the winner will get the next title shot. So caution could make it go the distance.

Also love Holloway to beat Ortega. Same as above that Holloway will be cautious more then usual as the sub game is real. But in the end a r3 r4 r5 tko is still very likely asOrtega has nothing on his feet compared to what Holoway has already faced and beaten.

as much as colby is annoying and isn't a great striker, he is a dominant wrestler and RDA did get smothered quite easily on the ground by khabib. i do think the fight being 5 rounds helps RDA, but i don't think this fight is a cakewalk for him at all. this isn't a horrible matchup for colby at all, like usman or woodley would be.

Agree 100%. I love RDA and think Colby is a douche, but I think this is a very good match up for Colby and don't understand why he's being priced as an underdog. Also, Colby is a conditioning freak, I wouldn't count on him getting tired in a 5 round fight.

Also, I actually think Anthony Smith is underrated as a fighter so am not going to bet on it, but keep in mind Rashad is returning to light heavyweight in this fight. He's probably washed up, but he also could have just been cutting too much weight.