Glory 52 Risk $1395.00

Kevin VanNostrand (+550) vs Robin Van Roosmalen $100.00 for $550.00
Kevin VanNostrand (+420) vs Robin Van Roosmalen $100.00 for $420.00
Kevin VanNostrand/Robin Van Roosmalen Under 3½ (-120) $240.00 for $200.00

Simon Marcus/Zack Wells Over 2½ (-115) $115.00 for $100.00
Simon Marcus/Zack Wells Over 2½ (-115) $115.00 for $100.00

Chris Camozzi (+115) vs Mike Lemaire $100.00 for $115.00
Chris Camozzi (-140) vs Mike Lemaire $140.00 for $100.00

Stoyan Koprivlenski (-130) vs Josh Jauncey $130.00 for $100.00

Pavel Zhuravlev/Myron Dennis Under 1½ (-120) $60.00 for $50.00
Pavel Zhuravlev/Myron Dennis Under 1½ (-120) $60.00 for $50.00

Anissa Meksen/Ashley Nichols Under 2½ (+375) $35.00 for $131.25

Bailey Sugden (+100) vs Zakaria Zouggary $100.00 for $100.00
Bailey Sugden (+100) vs Zakaria Zouggary $100.00 for $100.00

Added on Moicano +135, Rose +115, Khabib -250 and Lauzon -161, not sure about Chiesa at -125ish, I liked him as a dog will think about it more, I still think he's a fav just not sure if its a bet, I probably will at some point. Got my 3 parlays as well.

5D lines opened with Khabib supposedly as a -505 favorite vs +365 on Max Holloway. By the time I looked minutes later Khabib was at -400. Who the hell was betting Max in this situation on a few days notice, up in weight against a bigger man, with the worst stylistic matchup possible and coming off an ankle injury where he wasn't supposed to return until the summer? Holloway hasn't even left Hawaii yet for crying out loud! I kept maximum betting what they would allow me and as it stands I have a total of $1750 on Khabib now between -350, -365, -380 and -400. If I get burnt on this so be it, but I give Max very little hope in this one despite being on Tony originally. Update: Khabib down to -350 again. I added another $250. Now an even 2 G's on Khabib between -350 and -400.

omg lol i had to google that.

i thought it was a ****ing april fools as ive seen a few today.

its always just shocking to me that these fighters get hurt just DAYS before their biggest fight of their life. sdfsdgsd

like it makes me think its rigged in some way, i dont know why but its so hard to fathom it happening logically with the insanely high rate of injury that occurs.

but jim

















































































































the best is blessed!

1- Max is taking this very difficult fight on just a few days notice.

2- He is going up in weight against a bigger & heavier man.

3- Khabib as a relentless wrestler is perhaps the worst stylistic matchup for him, especially since Conor of all people outwrestled him with a torn ACL.

4- Max is coming off an ankle injury where he just pulled out of a fight recently and he wasn't planning on fighting until the summer.

5- Max has to cut weight even for 155 pounds on short notice which is likely to drain him.

6- Max literally hasn't even left Hawaii yet and has to travel almost halfway around the globe to get to New York City and then he'll have media obligations once he gets there, leaving him almost no time to train or gameplan.

Honestly I think Max has a better chance than Tony in some ways due to being the better fighter with better standup (imo) although obviously Khabib is likely to ragdoll him

Really disappointed I thought we'd finally get to see Ferguson vs Khabib this time. Ridiculous. They've both pulled out twice now to go 0-4 for the fight being booked right?

I was going to cheer for Khabib against Tony, now i'm going to cheer for Max against Khabib I think, although for the UFC's sake Conor vs Khabib is the superfight they want to make.

Ferguson stripped of interim title now that he's injured and the winner of this fight takes it and I assume the Conor payday with it if Conor's coming back

The LW division has been a complete mess lately, the last fighter to defend the belt was Alvarez in 2016

Also it's amazing this happened on April Fools day but isnt a joke

I guess all of my parlays adjusted by one leg and my Khabib bet cancelled, i'll have to take a look and see if there are any other spots I like. Still thinking about Chiesa straight up and maybe some combo of Dunham/AES/Caceres. Not going to touch Khabib/Holloway on short notice, Khabib probably ragdoll/subs him but Max is really, really good now and I honestly think he has about the same chance Ferguson did if Max gets to +500 or something ridiculous I might even back him

Khabib, I figured out what he is, he is a black hole, you go past that event horizon with him you cant get back out and he has you and will crush you down.

Khabib has the strength of a weight class up, people factor it in but then feel it and cant believe it.

Its a difficult fight for max but like wise Khabib is going to get taught a few things about how limited he is himself, meat grinder compactor vs the blessed one.

Pretty sick fight, Max will have been officially requested to be ready to cover Khabib pulling out imo, this is no out of the blue call, these guys (UFC) have a professional multi billion dollar Business to run. Max will be in shape with 5 days to step up his on going life journey commitment to fitness and combat sports.

I think if it goes over 2 rounds then Max will be warmed up and the distance, timing, read, it will be difficult for Khabib going into the 3rd,

Khabib inside of 2 rds and Holloway maybe by decision, Khabib is solid.

Holloway will be tempted with a sick knee to the face of Khabib when he rushes in for the take down with max back to the fence, he is good enough to land that with enough force to knock him out.

I am interested to see this fight. Khabib is going to have to catch Holloway... that is not an easy thing to do at all.

(yep: this is a scary fight to bet)

I want to see if max looks confident and conditioned at weigh ins. If he's at his best this could be a great fight

This will be my first time not betting khabib in the ufc I think but he's too short

I think the UFC probably just told Max they would give him a ton of money and he said "Screw it, I have nothing to lose"

He wasn't healthy enough to defend his title a month ago, now he is going to get in there with Khabib on 6 days notice?

I think he gets steamrolled, ragdolled, w/e you wanna call it, gets the biggest payday of his career by far and can then go back down to 145 and still try to be the king there a la BJ penn (to 155) after GSP smashed him.

I really really think this is a rooough spot for Max. Not sure I have anything to add here that hasn't been said before, but Max just doesn't have the power to really hurt Khabib when he's coming in. I've been higher than many on Conor's chances against Khabib because he can really capitalize on the few (I'm guessing at least 3 good) chances he'll get to tag Khabib coming in. Its difficult to believe Max is going to seriously hurt Khabib coming up a weightclass considering he is more of a volume finished when he does finish guys.

That said, if he does win this fight... boy oh boy.

Yeah I feel like unless Max maybe catches Khabib with a knee coming in or lands a head kick he is drawing real thin.

Holloway beats guys through attrition. But short notice and horrible style match up for him, really don't see it.

Would have backed Khabib at 1.25 probably but never really like to take low odds in MMA unless it was like Fedor vs Bob Sapp or Cyborg vs low level women's fighter.

Decent steam on Moicano real happy with my bet at 2.5 now.

They asked Khabib about Max and he even intimated that he was basically just in it for the check. It makes sense for Max as long as he doesn't take too much damage.

No one is going to dock him for losing to Khabib at 155 on short notice while still healing an injury.

If Max isn't fully healthy then yeah he's going to lose. I hope he's at least fully healed the injury taking this fight, even on short notice his cardio should be fine to go 5 rounds.

Ortega confirmed on twitter he was offered the fight while Max was considering it and would have accepted, that would have been ugly for him spending the full 25 mins on his back but interesting given his slick grappling

I added on more Moicano +135 at one of my locals, Rose is getting backed in pretty heavily too. Moicano is my biggest bet atm followed by Lauzon -161 and Rose +115 (still mad at myself for not locking up the Rose +150 early I think she's going to close as a fav now).

My bets as they stand

Moicano +135
Lauzon -161
Rose +115

Rose/Lauzon/Moicano/Chiesa parlay

and I have a couple bonus bets on parlays to convert so used them on parlays too, one on Lauzon+Moicano (originally had Khabib too but has been adjusted since original fight cancelled) and one on Rose/Lauzon/Moicano/Chiesa/AES/Caceres (also originally had Khabib too)

I guess i'll wait for weigh ins now to decide whether i'm going to take any of AES/Caceres/Dunham/Chiesa straight up as I sort of lean their side on each of the fights just not super keen on the current price on any of them. Borg by decision is sort of tempting if I can get around evens on it too.

I sort of want Karolina too but Felice has been improving so much recently i'm reluctant to, I think Karolina will decision the hell out of her though. KK by decision at close to evens is kind of tempting as Felice is hard to finish and outside of rocking JJ briefly, KK hasn't really looked like knocking anyone out and while she's an excellent technical striker who even outstruck Rose in her fight she just lacks finishing power.

Iaquinta/Felder too tough to call due to Iaquinta's long layoff and Felder's inconsistently alternating between looking like a world beater and an average fighter.

One prop that might be worth looking at is Khabib by submission if it's anything like +200, Max is tough but unlikely to survive 5 rounds on his back and he's also got a good chin so relatively unlikely to get TKO'd unless it's via ref stoppage due to being in an inescapable position he's much more likely to get submitted if he loses imo. Will see if any decent sub lines come up. If Max to win by TKO is like +1000 as well I might take a piece of that as imo it's his most likely way to beat Khabib, he could win a decision I guess if he can keep 3 of 5 rounds standing but it's unlikely he does so and doesn't find a finish with his volume if he's winning.

Bec Rawlings is just a terrible fighter, she's lost 5 of her last 7 and the two wins were Lisa Ellis who isn't really UFC level and a close decision vs Seo Hee Ham that nearly half of the media cards scored the other way. She's had a home crowd for most of her fights and doesn't this time as well so no biased judging. AES is prone to making mistakes but has faced better competition, wins over Reneau and Macedo and Fox (granted Macedo is more like a 115er) is better than anything Rawlings has done and she was winning the Pennington fight before she lost and Vieira is a legit contender so there's no shame in that loss and it's not like Rawlings will armbar her the way Moras did. The more I think about it the more likely I am to end up on AES. They both have 64' reach, AES is bigger/thicker from memory and should be more powerful, the standup feels close and AES should have a big edge in grappling, she's prone to getting submitted but Rawlings isn't the type of fighter to submit her so she should win. -181 is pretty tempting. Will wait for weigh ins and see if AES has the size advantage I think she has before firing.

Despite losing its main event this is actually still a really good card on paper, there are no fights i'm not at all interested in.

The main event would be amazing if it was a full camp healthy Holloway, even on short notice i'm excited for it. I'm torn between wanting Holloway to do the unthinkable and not wanting to lose the Conor/Khabib fight which is probably the one i'm most excited to see in the next year or so. Conor/Holloway 2 would be great too though given how much Holloway has improved since the first fight and would be more likely to be really exciting I guess given they're both strikers, and with 5 rounds Holloway's better cardio would be more of an issue vs Conor's size and power early.

How big is Max outside of camp? - it sounds like he is doing a huge 6 day cut to get to 155 as he had to have GLockhart agree that it was even possible before he accepted fight

He's tall but not that heavily built, I don't think he'd be able to make 145 on 6 days but 155 is a ton of leeway being up a full weight class from his usual fighting weight, 10lbs to a FW is a ton as opposed to say a LHW or whatever. I'm sure he'll make the 155.

i think i like rose quite a bit this card. took her at slight dog, hope she doesn't close too much of a favorite so i can add. speed difference was pretty striking in the first matchup, and i'm not sure if joanna is going to have any better time of closing the distance this go of it. think khabib is going to win pretty handidly, think theres some value at -455. max has been super sheltered from grapplers in his run, and now they're asking him to face the best grappler in mma on 6 days up a weight class. i mean, conor got to mount with 0 resistance on a bum knee. i'm sure max's grappling has improved since then, but it hasn't improved that much.

i think i like OAM a lot as slight dog vs dunham. dunham is tough as hell and super game but i like OAM's athleticism to push him to a decision win. hand speed difference should be pretty dramatic (and oam isn't that fast) and i think he's more diverse as well. kicks could play a huge factor. grappling wise i'm not sure what to make of the fight, prob should be a wash?

leaning towards caceres but i have to rewatch some more and have to really get going on the undercards, haven't even looked at most of those fights yet.

I think he'll likely make it to 155, but there's a chance he doesn't

https://www.mmafighting.com/2018/4/3...-ive-ever-done

Decided to add Chiesa after all when his line started moving again. Should have had him as a dog at opening lines but oh well. Got on at -129. Got some KK wins by decision at +110 too. She's a pretty decent fav imo and also a pretty decent fav not to finish. I'm a lot higher on Felice than I was a year ago, but I think KK is too big a step up striking wise.

Added a little more Rose at +110 too to bring my bet size up a little. Moicano +135 is still my biggest. Still thinking about AES, probably passing on Dunham, i'm pretty high on both Dunham and OAM relative to their rankings.

you have to be careful with these kind of things because max is getting part of the ppv so it would make sense his team is trying to pump up the hype for the fight. They would never let on that he's undersized for business and competition reasons imo.

He's got a small frame for 155 but he's still pretty tall. He'd be fine at 155 if he added muscle mass and had a full camp imo, but obviously the current situation won't lead to his best performance possible which would make it even more impressive if he's able to pull it off.

I think Khabib subbing him is the most likely outcome but who knows. Khabib sub +350 is kind of tempting (as is Holloway by r1 TKO at +2100 imo) but going to wait for more lines to open etc. Usually Holloway's a r2-4 TKO type of guy due to volume striking but if he's going to beat Khabib he's probably going to have to hurt him early so there's a chance he uses a more all-in gameplan where he plants his feet and tries to catch Khabib with a fight ending shot coming in

I don't hate Khabib by sub/dec at +120 either, since I think sub is more likely than TKO given the fighters involved and Khabib generally finishing by sub/tko at a similar rate in fights he finishes. Max won't tap to strikes because it's not who he is but he may give up his back if he starts looking for a way out, or if he doesn't he could quite easily just lose a 50-45 if he's getting taken down

I think I might wait for weigh ins to decide what props I take for the main

i like khabib and i like holloway so i dunno what to do

part of me wants holloway to win, but its such a huge step to make.

I may be wrong, but I think lockhart is working with khabib and holloway for this fight, would be a bit odd if he's lying to help one of them out

Is there any chance that Max wasn't injured?

Pure business gamble based on the pay increase should either tony or khahib pulls out and he's guaranteed the fill in.
I saw in the media day thing around December when he said he'd fill in for either guy.

If neither gets injured either ortega or Frankies stock goes up and its a better title fight.