Paul Craig getting that last second submission was an unbelievable turn of events which won big for me and Jan Blachowitz really came through in the co-main event with a big +200 upset over Jimi Manuwa. If Jan had finished Manuwa like it appeared he might that would have been a a gigantic win. Even my underdog round robin came well in the positive with three wins, two losses and one cancellation out of six legs. Grand total of $1138.80 profit for the card.

Going to go out on a limb and say don't do that if the opponent is Wonderboy (the worst MU in the division for Till imo). Other than that I do think Till is legit though.

Lost my only significant bet for the card on Werdum, haven't seen the fight yet looks like he won the first few rounded then faded and got knocked out

Kind of annoying I didnt have Blachowicz as I was considering it and the market loved it with all the steam plus it was Jim's fav spot of the card but oh well.

On to the next card pretty sure ill go hard on it, I think it's pretty likely I end up on Khabib/Chiesa/Rose/Moicano and probably Lauzon too even though he's getting old.

Iaquinta is a tough one because he's been so inactive. anyone have any leans on Iaquinta/Felder or like the other side a lot on any of the ones I like a side on?

Was just checking out the results and realised there were TWO last second stoppages (Edwards and Craig) on one card. That's pretty insane.

The UFC could put on an INSANE card for Russia in September now if they want to make a big splash there with their debut; it's possible they could even break their PPV record if they can get Conor, and of course assuming Khabib beats Tony at the upcoming card

Conor vs Khabib for the LW title (or Khabib vs #1 contender if Conor is gone)
Miocic/Cormier winner vs Volkov for the HW title
Third minor title fight if they want to go for a record selling PPV

Magomedshapirov vs someone
Makhachev vs someone
Oleinik vs someone
Khabilov vs someone assuming he recovers from injury in time

Antigulov vs someone
Edilov vs someone
Yakovlev vs someone
Aliev vs someone
Kunitskaya vs someone
Albu vs someone

That gets us to 13 fights, with 12 featuring a Russian fighter and 3 title fights. Would sell 2m+ with Conor and 750k+ without

Could also add some non-Russian fighters to the main card if they wanted to really stack it, but if they put Magomedshapirov and Makhachev on there vs top 15 guys and say a womens title fight or Mighty Mouse title fight or whatever plus Volkov and Khabib fighting for the belts that'd be huge.

Felice Herrig scorecards= no action at +175 vs pillow fisted KK who hasn't stopped anyone in the UFC. (Actually opened at +190). 2u on that, great line.

Agreed. I also have her +162 straight for 1u

Masvidal vs till a good idea?

Edit: Big fan of Masvidal, but see him getting blown out by till, till is our little money maker this year.

Backing Bibiano Fernades at 1.85 for tomorrow's One card.
Nguyen has that one shot power but I think Fernandes is the more skilled of the two.

It's a stand out price also compared to other bookies.

I'm actually on the other side of the One FC main event. I previously backed Martin Nguyen as an underdog against both Marat Gafarov and Eduard Folayang when he claimed the 155 pound and 170 pound belts and now that he is challenging Fernandes for his 145 pound "bantamweight" belt, I liked his value at the +180 opener. Bibiano hasn't lost in a long time, and he's also just days short of his 38th birthday. Nguyen will be the bigger man and also the heaviest hitter he has faced in a very long while. 1 unit on Nguyen to win 1.8 units. I have some other One FC action too which I will post in full separately when I finalize it.

Chalky action tonight:

LFA 36 Risk $680.00

Ricky Simon (-300) vs Vinicius Zani $300.00 for $100.00
Jamall Emmers (-265) vs Guilherme Faria $265.00 for $100.00
Christian Aguilera (-115) vs Ricardo Seixas $115.00 for $100.00

Three for three on LFA 36 for 3 units profit. Early action for Saturday:

One FC "Iron Will" Risk $1110.00

Martin Nguyen (+180) vs Bibiano Fernandes $100.00 for $180.00
Dejdamrong Sor Amnuaysirichoke (-190) vs Jeremy Miado $190.00 for $100.00
Dejdamrong Sor Amnuaysirichoke (-245) vs Jeremy Miado $245.00 for $100.00
Shannon Wiratchai (-475) vs Rahul Raju $475.00 for $100.00
Tetsuya Yamada (+150) vs Saygid Arslanaliev $100.00 for $150.00


ACB 83 Risk $135.00

Edgars Skrivers (+770) vs Magomed Magomedov ~$36.00 for ~$277.20
Dileno Lopes (+124) vs Islam Yunusov ~$99.00 for ~$122.76

Good luck Jim

Annoyingly I didnt take the lines I liked early, most have shortened, still intend to be on Chiesa/Lauzon/Moicano/Rose/Khabib for the big card but figure theres no point tying the money up for weeks especially now that a few of the openers I liked have shortened (3/5 have come in a bunch)

Wonderboy vs Till seems to be on for the UK card, hoping it opens as a pickem but expecting WB -170 or something. Seems like a dream matchup for Wonderboy with the only downside being he can get inactive at times although against a guy who isn't going to be trying to take him down in a pure striking battle thats less of a problem. If it's close the judges will give it to Till in England, but I think WB wins a lopsided 30-27 or knocks him out. It's just such a huge step up in striking competition from anything Till has ever faced before. Wonderboy basically fought Woodley to two draws and just schooled Masvidal on the feet, plus with WB being 35 this has to be his last run to win the belt, he can't afford a loss and although he could fall off a cliff at any time he hasn't really taken much damage in the Octagon beyond Woodley rocking him a few times and I guess the war with Matt Brown when he was green. Till is young and hungry and good but i'm not sure he's ready for the Woodley/Wonderboy tier of the division.

I want balla counter expertise please

Let me try.

TILL is a MACHINE that guy is young hungry and has the precision and technique of a young Chuck Liddell, did you see the way he destroyed Cowboy Wonderboy got rocked by Woodley who is a wrestler he has no chance

Close?

I think to beat Wonderboy you either have to do what Woodley did and be a wrestler with one punch power and make it a close and ugly decision (and I maintain Wonderboy would still be a small fav in the third fight, I maintain he at least drew both fights assuming Woodley gets a 10-8 in both fights) or else be a fighter like prime GSP with explosive offensive takedowns to take away WB's kicks and and good enough striking that you can hang on the feet. I don't think any of the strikers in the UFC are a favourite against him in the standup and I don't think any wrestlers are a favourite against him unless their striking is at least a certain level and they need legit explosive takedowns. Basically, Woodley with more cardio and better offensive takedowns I guess.

So on to UFC 223 who have we all got?

I fired my first bet for UFC 223; a parlay on my five picks at +2006, had a big day betting on another sport on one of my accounts where I beat all of the closing lines and won so I need to fire some random non-offmarket bets to try and keep my account open for another week so I figure this one will do. Will bet all of the spots individually too but not going to tie the funds up for two weeks. I do honestly think I hit this one slightly more than 5% of the time, more like 7-8%. I think Moicano is a flip, Rose is a slight fav, Lauzon wins unless he's completely shot, Pettis lacks the TDD to deal with Chiesa and Chiesa is good enough to not get subbed on the ground and should mostly have better positions plus he's big enough to have a decent size advantage, obv Pettis knocks him out a third of the time or whatever but I think Chiesa wins closer to 60% here and I think Khabib wins more like 75% of the time, I think he matches up really well with Ferguson because yeah, Tony has a great guard but he's going to spend the whole fight on his back because his TDD isn't good enough and while Tony's live to get a sub or TKO, there's no way he wins any of the first 3 rounds and i'd be surprised if he wins any even with his cardio with the beating he's going to take on his back. I think Khabib just 50-45s it or makes him quit in the championship rounds.

Moicano is my favourite spot for the next UFC card.
Managed to get 2.5 and agree he is closer to 2.0.

Also small on Vaughan Lee for Cage Warriors at odds of 5.0

No read but he is 4.15 with 5dimes so worth a sweat as I will be watching it live.

Darren Till has got a much better chance vs wonder boy than he does vs maia,

Darren Till has got a thick solidness about him, that he can take a punch, I think a fighter like Till is a great fight for wonder boy, but Till moving out to brazil puts him out of being a plain beast like lee murry or some thing, that's armature hour and he did good vs Anderson.s.

He (till) is a pure raw energy that has been doing what he loves since childhood, when you do some thing with a passion since your childhood you get good really *** good.

It wont be a tentative fight and wonderboy gets clipped, for all his range play. Till brings a hell of a lot to the fight, it isn't no point scoring event.. One of these guys is getting knocked out and sure as lemons it wont be till in the first 3 rounds.

He has that some thing which cant be stopped like a force of nature, he has that compact attention to detail focus that you do actually see in a gorillas face (his nick name), its a big step up from Donald Cerrone but till obilorated him lets not forget that.

Wonder boy is a pretty rare fighter, he beat Tyron Woodley in UFC 205 3rd rounds to 2 from memory what ever the judges said, but that was vs passive aggressive tentative ready to counter Tyron, a snooze fest.

What's the short of it.
Stephen Thompson is going to get pressed hardcore by a beast that will get to him eventually, till can take punches that he can see coming, he is very good himself playing combat chess of obliteration,

Some thing of the matador vs bull in this fight, Till vs Masvidal would have been a better bet for us.

Iin this fight there is some thing to say about Energy.. Till taps into the river of it, like asking where did Edwin Valero get his power. Where does till get his awesome.

Also just to highlight one point.. Till states of himself that he is or will go down as the greatest fighter ever, and at this juncture before UFC 223 no one can stand on a soap box and say no that's not the case, its a lot of bravado... but the point is it stands up, his message could be factual, that says some thing of the closeness of this fight given Wonderboy is just that good at what he does.

Till is a double big handful for any one, it could go down that wonderboy cuts him down in every exchange and goes on to KO him.. in 4th etc but I don't see that it being a dream night for Wonderboy, more like the otherway around.. till has got to see wonderboy smashed up badily by Tryon in that round 5.. he knows it can and most likely will happen for him also, he will believe that absolutely as if asking if day follows night.

perfect doesn't happen all the time..., its in Liverpool, crazy town, the energy levels are going to be insane through the roof, till will get his hands on him, you are not coming over to here to England and getting in the cage with till and not getting a bloody nose, your going to taste your own blood, a lot, you can get the win vs till but your going earn it like no other fight, till is a a highly mobile tank, Stephen Thompson is artillery, the size of the cage shrinks real quick when its a frantic fight.

Both of these guys are exceptional, I think for all of wonderboys magic.. its like Machinda.. once the trick was out of the bag for long, enough it didn't work as much.. till is going to have tape to watch..

Till defiantly is working up hill here 15 or 20 degrees, , guy has a lot of steam in the engine thou, this is a really entertaining fight, till is a big boy...


Leave the fight alone for money and watch it as sports event else take the fight itd? till doesn't have the skill set or method of fighting to allow Thompson to exist in the cage for 5 rounds.

If Stephen Thompson was extremely robust along with his fighting skills I would take him, but he seems a little venerable doesn't he. He is not a brick **** house or as said young and able to take a lot, if he gets punched very hard he will fold up, he is not built to take damage that is not what he does in the cage .




its going to be a worthy tittle fight... dramatic.

Invicta FC 28 Risk $852.00

Mizuki Inoue (-105) vs Virna Jandiroba ~$135.00 for~ $128.57
Mizuki Inoue (-120) vs Virna Jandiroba $120.00 for $100.00

Karina Rodriguez (-210) vs DeAnna Bennett $210.00 for $100.00

Kali Robbins (+105) vs Pearl Gonzalez $100.00 for $105.00
Kali Robbins (+105) vs Pearl Gonzalez $100.00 for $105.00

Kalyn Schwartz (+147) vs Kay Hansen ~$81.00 for ~$119.07

Parlay:
Karina Rodriguez (-245) vs DeAnna Bennett + Milana Dudieva (-260) vs Christina Marks $106.00 for $100.68

I feel like Wonderboy while being an amazing technical fighter doesn't like getting hit (not that anyone does, but less than the average fighter) and that fits in with the style he has. He is such a great counter puncher that it usually makes his opponents tentative but when they have put pressure on him (woodley/matt brown) he has shown defensive flaws/a tendency to get hit.

Till I think is more a 'fighter'. Wonderboy will likely win all day in a point scoring/technical fight but if Till can keep the pressure on him/not get dissuaded by the counters then he can make Wonderboy uncomfortable which will make it a lot closer.

Both are great though and am looking forward to this matchup.

Excellent post as usual Balla, Im sold !

He's right that WB doesn't like getting hit, but the thing is WB is really, really hard to hit and doesn't have a terrible chin if he is, he's never been knocked out etc. although he's only been badly rocked twice that I remember both times by Woodley

If Till's going to win he needs to get on the inside and make it a brawl rather than a technical striking match even though he could win a technical striking match with most WWs, he can't here. I'll be taking WB if he's -150 or better, wouldn't take Till until +300ish

Not really sure what this means here.

For the likes of Sarah McMann or Brock Lesner, they freeze up and stop fighting when they are hit. McMann probably the biggest example of this in the sport.

Thompson is dangerous, even comfortable while moving away. I'm not sure that qualifies as "not liking to be hit". We've seen him get hit. We have only seen one person truly beat him and that was six years ago.

wonderboy -140 , till +110

How we don't bet wonderboy here is beyond me

Till has one impressive performance and alot of "conor esque" confidence,
not enough to ship 20 bets here imo.

Thompson has so much more on his resume than the cocky kid. Including a TKO of the current middleweight champ bobby k

I like Till, and I recognize I want another Conor in the sport, and this kid talking about
winning 3 belts is exciting. Doesn't mean we should bet our feelings here.

Wonderboy via unanimous decision 30-28...

Oh wait. It’s in Liverpool?

Till via unanimous decision 30-6

That'll be the ****ed up part of the fight, unless Wonderboy completes dominates him. Which I feel like he will 90%+ of the time.

Till's only real shot to win this will be a first round KO imo

Definitely going to smash WB -140 if I can get it but looks about -165 at most places now, will wait for more lines to open I guess

Ended up getting a few bonus bets this week, and due to only paying profit not stake ended up chucking them on more parlays - took Moicano/Lauzon/Khabib +433 and my the same as my original 5 leg parlay only with AES and Caceres added on for a 7 leg one too.

I'm still going to bet all of them individually, but not a bad way to convert bonus cash at decent prices I guess. 3 leg +433, 5 leg +2006 and 7 leg +5xxx from memory

Going to take Moicano/Lauzon/Khabib/Rose/Chiesa solo too probably as well but will wait until closer to card

Parker is just making his way to the ring if any one is into boxing... go go go