Quote:
Originally Posted by CharlieDontSurf
Ii feel like u should def avoid Ortega fights.
Haha yeah easy enough to say that after the fact. Do you really think he beats Holloway? Because that's his next fight. He won't have the size advantage he usually enjoys for that one and his striking fundamentals are still absolute trash. I'll give him this, he's definitely got a puncher's chance and he could get Holloway's neck if he gets ahold of him, i'm not laying -300 or anything crazy like that but if Holloway is -165 or something which seems reasonably likely after today...
Holloway has only ever lost to Conor and Poirier in his debut as a rookie (he won the Bermudez fight pretty clearly imo and would wreck current Poirier and be more competitive against Conor than he was) and he gets better every time we see him. Granted Ortega does too, but Ortega can't casually eat shots for a round against Holloway the way he did against Edgar. Granted Holloway's wrestling is probably slightly weaker than Frankie's but he makes up for it by being bigger, rangier and hitting harder.
Ortega will lose, and he will lose badly and be embarrassed with extremely limited offense in the fight he loses, and people will wonder why they thought he was the next best thing. Ortega has slick grappling, some power and a great killer instinct but he's still got terrible striking and bad offensive wrestling. He's NEVER going to touch the belt and if he wins the belt via fluke sub he's not going to be a long term champion because he's incapable of winning a decision against any top 5 fighter.
Obviously I do have some bias since I dislike him as a fighter. I would not be surprised at all if he fails a second test for steroids one day plus he strikes me as incredibly disingenuous and fake the same way Faber is
Anyway, he's earned his title shot, he's reached the end boss and if he wins and defends his title i'll be the first to admit I was wrong and that he's the real deal
I think Holloway is going to embarrass him and make him look like he doesn't even belong in the Octagon with him. If i'm wrong, then Ortega is officially my anti-TJ Dillashaw (bet on TJ in 7 of his last 8 fights, and they're the 7 he won and against him vs Cruz so i'm 8/8 in his last 8) - i'm now 0-5 fading Ortega from memory, or 0-6 if I bet the Tavares fight which I can't remember whether I did or not. That said, all 5 of Ortega's last 5 opponents were in position to beat him. Brandao was up two rounds and just needed to survive, Moicano outstruck him easily, Edgar outstruck him and looked to be cruising until the combo that ended it, washed up Guida was 20-18 19-19 19-19 heading into the third and Swanson was beating him up on the feet until he got caught in the guillotine
Yeah, credit has to go to Ortega for getting those finishes and winning those fights, but I remember when Chris Weidman was 'unbeatable' and he actually looked in his wins.
If anyone with a lot of faith in Ortega thinks he's at the very least the #2 FW i'd happily bet he loses at least two of his next five fights at evens (which means even if he loses to Holloway that he's going to lose to someone else before getting another title shot most likely and if he beats Holloway he'd have to lose the title then one more fight in his next four)
Not much I like on the next card, might consider Edwards if the price is good but I don't expect it to be that great. Maybe Marshman, but not too excited about him either
Looking forward to 223 though and can't see any way that i'm not betting on Khabib, Rose and Chiesa. I don't think Pettis can stop Chiesa's takedown and both guys are good hang on the ground. I think Rose might be a stylistic nightmare for Joanna, she has more power than most WSWs as well as excellent grappling and above average takedowns. If it goes past three rounds Joanna will probably win, but I think Rose might stop her quickly again.
It's pretty rare to see a champ regain their belt in the rematch against the same opponent. By my count it's 5-8 for a fighter trying to regain the belt against the same opponent. After counting it, thats less bad than I thought it was for the ex-champ.
Successes - GSP vs Serra, GSP vs Hughes, Cain vs JDS, Sylvia vs Arlovski, Liddell vs Couture
Those that failed - Aldo, Anderson Silva, JDS, Edgar, Franklin, Newton, Arlovski, Penn
I guess since I started watching MMA regularly around UFC 200 the ex champ has gone 1-5 trying to win the belt back which makes it seem like less common than the 5-8 (assuming im not missing any) suggests. Interestingly I guess this also means in the pre UFC 100 era, fighters trying to win their belt back went 4-3 and since then have gone 1-5. Could be variance, or could be the MMA game is evolving faster than it used to. I might be missing a couple examples too but can't think of any.