Well ahead of the current line on Dollaway, behind on Souk and Edgar but pretty confident I go 2/3 on average, expecting Edgar to win and one of the other two on average.

Vieira at -211 from a pickem the biggest move; Arlovski steam stopped with Struve at -170; O'Malley a tiny fav over Souk again and looks like minor Caraway steam although I didn't end up taking the +135 I was considering. Might take it last minute haven't decided yet. Dern in to -418, little bit of Munhoz steam too although Dodson still a small fav.

I don't hate the idea of Zingano +185 but with that much steam against her theres a chance she's carrying an injury or something so leaving it alone especially with the big layoff.

Jim, you still going big on Soukhamthath? Any other spots you particularly like post-weigh ins?

I'm kind of shocked the overall move's been towards Ortega over Edgar. Yeah, he has a great submission game but thats it, does he really submit Edgar anywhere near often enough? I doubt it. I'm really looking forward to Edgar wrecking him standing, people forget Ortega is a steroid cheat like so many others.

Still tempted by Pyle too if he gets to +300 i'll have to fire.

Glory 51 Risk $700.00

Eyevan Danenberg (-175) vs Jimmy Vienot $175.00 for $100.00
Alan Scheinson (+140) vs Thongchai Sitsongpeenong $100.00 for $140.00
Alim Nabiev (+150) vs Cedric Doumbe $200.00 for $300.00
Massaro Glunder (-170) vs Victor Pinto $170.00 for $100.00
Miles Simson (+236) vs Mohammed Jaraya ~$55.00 for ~$129.80

Added a small Caraway +125 bet, that should do me I guess. Good luck everyone!

I'm on lots of underdogs on this UFC 222 card, and I don't have the energy to write up long breakdowns explaining why for each one because I am about to start watching Glory soon, but I have significant value bets on Caraway, Dolloway, Munhoz, Zingano, Arlovski & Ortega.

UFC 222 Risk $5028.30

Cris Cyborg wins in round 1 (+120) $50.00 for $60.00
Cris Cyborg wins in round 2 (+325) $35.00 for $113.75
Cris Cyborg/Yana Kunitskaya Over 1½ (+130) $100.00 for $130.00

Brian Ortega (+160) vs Frankie Edgar $200.00 for $320.00
Brian Ortega +3½ points (-205) $307.50 for $150.00
Brian Ortega wins in round 3 (+1300) $25.00 for $325.00
Brian Ortega wins by 3 round decision (+475) $50.00 for $237.50

Andre Soukhamthath (+140) vs Sean O'Malley $100.00 for $140.00
Andre Soukhamthath (-118) vs Sean O'Malley ~$1,100.00 for ~$932.20
Andre Soukhamthath wins inside distance (+170) $100.00 for $170.00
Sean O'Malley wins in round 1 (+750) $40.00 for $300.00
Andre Soukhamthath wins in round 2 (+475) $25.00 for $118.75
Andre Soukhamthath wins in round 3 (+800) $25.00 for $200.00
Andre Soukhamthath/Sean O'Malley Under 2½ (-120) $120.00 for $100.00

Andrei Arlovski (+190) vs Stefan Struve $200.00 for $380.00
Andrei Arlovski wins by TKO/KO (+375) $40.00 for $150.00
Andrei Arlovski wins in round 3 (+1500) $15.00 for $225.00
Andrei Arlovski/Stefan Struve Over 1½ (-110) $110.00 for $100.00
Andrei Arlovski/Stefan Struve fights ends in KO/TKO/DQ (-120) $60.00 for $50.00

Cat Zingano (+165) vs Ketlen Vieira $200.00 for $330.00
Cat Zingano wins by TKO/KO (+650) $30.00 for $195.00
Cat Zingano wins in round 3 (+1400) $10.00 for $140.00
Cat Zingano/Ketlen Vieira Under 2½ (+180) $100.00 for $180.00
Cat Zingano/Ketlen Vieira Under 2½ (+195) $100.00 for $195.00

Mackenzie Dern wins inside distance (+110) $100.00 for $110.00
Mackenzie Dern wins in round 3 (+750) $10.00 for $75.00
Mackenzie Dern/Ashley Yoder won’t go 3 round distance (-110) $110.00 for $100.00

Beneil Dariush/Alexander Hernandez won’t start round 3 (-120) $120.00 for $100.00

Pedro Munhoz (+155) vs John Dodson $100.00 for $155.00
Pedro Munhoz (+155) vs John Dodson $100.00 for $155.00
Pedro Munhoz wins by submission (+460) $25.00 for $115.00
Pedro Munhoz wins in round 3 (+1800) $10.00 for $180.00

C.B. Dollaway (+115) vs Hector Lombard $200.00 for $230.00
Hector Lombard wins in round 1 (+275) $50.00 for $137.50
C.B. Dollaway wins in round 3 (+1050) $15.00 for $157.50

Zak Ottow wins by TKO/KO (+220) vs Mike Pyle $40.00 for $88.00

Bryan Caraway (+145) vs Cody Stamann $100.00 for $145.00
Bryan Caraway wins by submission (+665) $25.00 for $166.25
Bryan Caraway wins by 3 round decision (+243) $50.00 for $121.50

Jordan Johnson/Adam Milstead Under 2½ (+112) $75.00 for $84.00
Adam Milstead wins by TKO/KO (+390) $30.00 for $117.00
Jordan Johnson wins in round 2 (+500) $15.00 for $75.00
Jordan Johnson wins in round 3 (+850) $15.00 for $127.50

Fights to end in KO/TKO over 3½ (-172) $68.80 for $40.00
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 4½ (+177) $40.00 for $70.80
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 5½ (+499) $25.00 for $124.75
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 6½ (+1474) $15.00 for $221.10
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 7½ (+5950) $4.00 for $238.00
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 8½ (+35100) $1.00 for $351.00

Andre Soukhamthath/Sean O'Malley awarded FOTN bonus (+300) ~$22.00 for ~$66.00

Parlay:
Beneil Dariush (-375) vs Alexander Hernandez + Mackenzie Dern (-404) vs Ashley Yoder $520.00 for $301.70

wow i was way off on that fight. had johnson huge, thought he'd be much more sucessful getting the fight to the ground. scary moments, thought milstead might have stolen the fight at the end.

Sean o Malley, wins straight up
o Malley R2/3 Ko
Ortega wins in round 3 by sub
Struve inside the distance
Edgar R2/R3 by tko
Edgar straight up
Cyborg in R2/3
Dodson R1 KO
Dern R2
Lombard by KO R2/3

SINGLES
Brian Ortega v Frankie Edgar - Fight Result
Brian Ortega
5/4
Stake:
£40.89
Potential returns:
£92.00


Great fight, I think Ortega will win by sub in the 3rd, guy is butter silk of his craft and can stand until elites really warm up. gl all

As soon as that fight started I knew it was trouble, dariush backing up with his chin straight in the air.

lol...let those mitts fly mackenzie

$0.50 $70.00 Pending 2 Team Parlay
Dern wins by TKO/KO +1100* vs Any other result
Hernandez wins by TKO/KO +1075* vs Any other result

Glad I stayed away from Dariush lol

Just tuning in in time for the Dern fight, 1-1 start with Lombard getting himself DQ'd for the Dollaway win and Caraway losing the split dec

Dern sort of holding her own striking, but worrying that she can't secure a dominant position on the ground. Will be interesting to see if she can get it to the ground at all if not we're probably headed to a close decision

Dern's gameplan of 'strike with the striker' seems subpar. Complete bust of a prospect in that shes not ready if she has no way to get lower UFC level fighters to the ground.

She probably won the first on volume though so should be tied after two if nothing big happens last minute

edit: no idea why she'd waste her energy shooting with 10secs left in the round. Shoot at the start of the third.

Wow, Dern does have sick transitions when she gets it down. She def wins r3, should get the 29-28 or split depending on r1

She's 100% fade material against any mid to upper level UFC fighter though who has TDD

Note to self to remember to fade Dern as a fav vs anyone with great TDD in the future

Adalaide Byrd with the dissenting scorecard as always; granted r1 was close so it's not egregiously awful or anything.

I have no idea how that awful woman has a job though given her obvious corruption/biases/incompetence or some combination of the three.

Added a little Edgar ITD +716, there's no way he doesn't finish Ortega 1 in 8 times. Also added a little more Edgar -152, just enough I win the same amount as before if he wins by decision.

Don't get me wrong I think Edgar mostly wins by decision but +716 is ridiculous imo. Should be more like +450 to +500.

Sort of tempted by u1.5 rounds in the main, anyone got an over/under lean?

any good streams for this event pls ?

Zingano has heart but it looks like the first era of WMMA is officially over with Tate/Rousey/Zingano no longer relevant. I guess Nunes is technically from that era too, but shes not the same fighter she was at the time.

Looks like Vieira is ready for her title shot after Pennington. Glad I didn't bet Zingano in the end I was pretty tempted to.

PM'd a bunch of streams that will be good for every event between them.

It almost feels absurd Cyborg is only -1111 here. Does she really lose 1 in 11 times? I'd think it's more like 1 in 20, and a lot of those are due to random injury/DQ and a small amount of punchers chance

No bet for Struve/Arlovski, they're my fav and second fav HW probably (well the two of them and JDS anyway) so just hoping for a good fight. I want Struve to win since he has the potential to go on a run though if he can finally put it all together.

forget working on striking...work on TDs n wrestling n shes gonna merk a lot of the girls in UFC

Well Andre Souk is now +125 , what to do?

How can you people watch this crapfest when Ortiz vs. Wilder is on?

Did Marcos Rosales really score that for Zingano lol

5 split decisions today with 4 different dissenting judges

@Lasfuentes because Boxing is honestly really boring to watch. Sure the best boxing is better than the worst MMA, but with Edgar vs Ortega and Struve vs Arlovski coming up (and even the other two fights) there's no way i'm missing this card

Souk back in to +117, annoying I got in at a terrible price, but at least he's moving back in now.

Pretty confident that regardless of results my Edgar bets are the best bets ill make today. +716 ITD is utterly ridiculous

People call Edgar a decisionator but he's finished 5 of his last 8 wins. Considering I think -155 straight up is value theres no way it cant be good. Yeah, it's only 3 rounds not 5 but still.

I'm always surprised by how big Arlovski is, and today he looks tiny because Struve is just massive.

3 more units on Andre Souk at +125 , this is very good value imo and he looked calm and collected in yesterday's weight-ins. I think he takes this and see him as closer to -165 or so. O'Malley said somewhere he wants to go shin against shin with Andre, yeah I hope he does that exactly.