hes a wrestler with meh striking. split decision loss vs his best opponent. i took the early dariush line without much research.

i took dern at -325 too. they gave her a favroable matchup in her first fight vs another jiu jitsu girl. i think dern's striking is somewhat reasonably decent and she's obviously great on the ground. don't see how she loses to yoder whos just not great anywhere.

Thanks, will def consider dariush then given his biggest question mark is his chin and it doesn't sound like Hernandez is a power puncher

Dern is interesting too I don't remember being very impressed by yoder but I'm also not a fan of betting big favs in wmma in general

Took soukhamthath at -129 he was -121 this morning and seems be steaming everywhere so decided to jump on since the market kind of looks like hes going to -150.

I really like Edgar at -169 but holding off for now since the steams going the other way. I'm definitely playing Frankie straight up and I'll decide based on price whether I take an Ortega sub hedge

Considering caraway too but I need to watch stamanns last few fights first.

Hmm, Edgar ITD is +565

Yeah, Ortega has never been finished and it's only 3 rounds and Edgar is more of an accumulation of damage guy than a knock you out with one punch guy, but there is going to be a WIDE gap in skillsets on the feet, Ortega has shown he has nothing for guys like Cub Swanson standing and technically speaking Edgar is even better than Cub on the feet, plus a slim chance that Edgar could tap Ortega from top position or win via GnP although that's somewhat unlikely. I do think Edgar wins by TKO more than 1 in 5 times though so I might consider some of that prop as an odds play even though a 30-27 is way more likely. I wouldn't be shocked if at some point in r2 or 3 Edgar drops him and he could swarm him and finish, he did knock out Chad Mendes who took all Aldo could handle for 5 rounds etc so it's not like he has zero power, and he did finish Maynard before his chin was shot, Rodriguez through accumulation of damage (granted from memory I think a lot of it was GnP based, would have to rewatch). Could potentially get not ortega dec at -5xx too, it's +4xx/-7xx on 5d and if Pinny do props again for this card since it's a PPV there might be some value there. I honestly think Ortega wins a decision less than 10% of the time, I think the true price is at least -1000. Unless he can control Frankie on the ground which no one has done ever and we've seen nothing to suggest Ortega can do this given Frankie's wrestling, there is just no way he wins 2 out of 3 rounds barring multiple point deductions or something absurd.

The more I think about it the more I want to go all out on this fight; Edgar straight up, a small Edgar ITD odds play, a not Ortega dec play and *maybe* a small Ortega sub hedge if I can get a really good price.

I'm backing away from my Zingano lean because Vieira is quite good and it's a super long layoff, but pretty happy with Soukhamthath+Edgar as my main bets for the card although I still haven't fired Edgar, then might go smaller on a few of my other leans.

Anyone saw the leaked TJ Dillashaw sparring practise videos? Dude seems like a straight douche.

Nope havent seen them. Cliffs or link?

Edgar in to -164 at Pinny and -161 at one of my locals. I love the price but since the steams going the other way I guess i'll wait and it would be nice to make sure he looks good at weigh in etc since hes getting older and had to pull out due to an injury in November, i'd assume he's fine/healthy if he's taking this fight though.

I'm pretty sure i'm just going to fade Brian Ortega vs any top 10 opponent who doesn't have terrible submission defense in every fight. He's lost over half of the rounds he's fought in the UFC despite being undefeated. Sure the finishes are impressive but the better his competition gets the harder they will be to come by. Holloway would wreck him harder on the feet, but Edgar probably has better submission defense and defensive wrestling than Holloway so he might be an even worse matchup for Ortega. Feels so wrong not to fire yet, but the trend's been Edgar price improving so i'm still holding off. Steam bothers me less than it would on a random fighter since the last two times an Edgar fight had big steam the steam was wrong (Aldo 2 he steamed in and lost; Rodriguez steamed in against him and he won) actually overall Edgar is a fighter who the markets have been wrong about more than they're right according to bestfightodds

Decided to pile on Edgar -161 as the price edged back to -171ish on Pinny. I love the price, i'm confident it's a great spot so loaded up a max bet for now. If Edgar looks fine at weigh ins and it steams against him again i'll just double down if the price improves and add more, maybe with a small Ortega sub hedge. For now though...

Max bet Egdar -161
Half a max bet on Soukhamthath at -129

Thats it for my card so far. One of my locals still has Dollaway at +140 so i'm sort of considering that to hedge with Lombard by r1 ko, but i'm thinking about just maxing out big on Edgar and Soukhamthath and calling it a card since they're my two fav spots. Haven't had time to go over Caraway/Stamann, has anyone got any thoughts on that one and why Stamann is a decent fav, does he match up well stylistically with tdd/striking or something?

Added a small Dern+Edgar+Soukhamthath parlay on one of my locals at +243 as I need to add in some parlays to try and hide that most of my bets there are +EV etc and feels like a decent spot. Probably going to take some Dollaway +140 straight up, he's chinny and of questionable skill but I think he's better than Smith and I think Lombard is just done. He's 0-4 since he failed the USADA test and one would assume came off steroids, Dollaway is old at 34 but Lombard is way older at 40 and while i'll probably hedge a little with Lombard wins via R1 KO, I like Dollaway as a dog and I think i'm just going to fire him

Added Dollaway +140 for half a max bet. Will wait til fight day see if there are any good Lombard r1 KO hedges if not ill just let it ride; if Dollaway doesn't get knocked out in the first he should win a huge amount of the time now that Lombard's chin is gone and his cardio is still bad. I know Lombard did LnP Jake Shields, but that was years ago i'm not sure he has the cardio to even do top control for 3 rounds anymore and Dollaway has good wrestling anyway. Plus it's offmarket at the moment so can't go wrong with that especially when I was leaning that side anyway.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxMw4jMBsdI&t=36s

Yana Kunitskaya is +1000 vs Cyborg, that has to be a bet right?

Yana has even less of a chance in this fight than even that imputes.

I've never seen her fight but based on her 3-2 record since coming out of her 3 year retirement (even though she's young) and the fact her best wins are Cindy Dandois, Raquel Pa'aluhi and Tonya Evinger (who she's 1-1 against and her win was overturned due to a referee mistake) I don't have high hopes for her being the woman to dethrone Cyborg. She definitely has less of a chance than Holm and Evinger did. Is someone who lost to a fighter i've never heard of called Zaira Dyshekova (a 19yo 2-2 fighter at the time) at something in Russia called Battle of the Lions less than two years ago really going to dethrone Cyborg 10%+ of the time?

Yes, Evinger lasted 3 rounds with Cyborg but it's not like she was ever threatening to win. Even Holm had her moments but never looked like winning. You need a specialist to beat Cyborg, either a grappler like Rousey but with better striking defense or offensive wrestling to get Cyborg down, or someone with size and power who can stand and trade with her (a bigger Nunes) or an elite technical striker with size like say a much bigger Shevchenko.

Cyborg has a size advantage, a 4 inch reach advantage, a power advantage and they're the same height. Unless i'm unaware of some sick credential Kunitskaya has I just don't see how she has a path to victory.

MMA though...

Would you bet on Ashkan Mokhtarian against Mighty Mouse at this price? Because he probably has a better puncher's chance than this chick does against Cyborg. Granted Cyborg has shown some cardio issues in the past, but she literally just went 5 rounds with Holm and was never threatened.

I agree +1000 is usually good in MMA, but the fighter really needs a gameplan to victory; i'm not sure one exists here. If it was the best UFC HW vs worst HW then yeah, the +1000 punchers chance is probably okay; some random HW will KO Stipe 1 in 10 times

I'm not sure that's true when it's Cyborg and a random WMMA semi-can

Think about it, if Cyborg fought ONLY this chick 20 times, her current number of fights, 2-18 is the breakeven point. Cyborg is 19-1, with her loss coming in her first fight when she was not the fighter she is now. At the very least the opponents she's faced that were bigger threats at the time are

Vanessa Porto
Shayna Baszler pre-washed up
Marloes Coenen x2
Gina Carano
Tonya Evinger
Holly Holm

So that's at least 7 of her 19 wins that were tougher opponents imo, and another 5 or so that were close to on par with her current opponent.

I'm pretty sure she doesn't lose over 10% of the time and if Cyborg was -1000 it might be a bet, but i'm not taking the -1600ish on offer.

I kind of want to take Bryan Caraway while he's still +135, there's a big experience gap and he isn't a bad fighter, but I still haven't got around to watching the last few of Stamann's fights

Not going to bet on Struve vs Arlovski, i'm a big fan of both guys and will just cheer for a good fight.

Interesting that there's big steam on Vieira against Zingano, probably just going to leave that one alone too as we have no idea what version of Zingano we're going to get.

Pyle price is getting pretty tempting; I know it's steaming the other way and Pyle's chin is shot, but offensively he may have the edge and if he doesn't get knocked out he's at least 50/50 to win this one imo

Decided i'm pretty happy with my Dollaway bet being straight up rather than props.

Not going to play Dariush or Dern now that they've steamed in other than having Dern in my parlay

im pretty big on jordan johnson. seems to have striking and grappling edge vs milstead and also has a pretty good chin to reduce some variance at this weight class. took him at -290, added more on the -250 line. milstead was completely hopeless vs blaydes which isn't too shocking or embarrassing, but johnson should be able to get this fight to the ground pretty regularly imo with his wrestling pedigree. think he wins 80%+. i think mistead has gas tank problems too which will be brutal vs pressuring wrestler. he only wins with an early ko imo, not too worried about it.

took caraway at +125 too. should have a striking edge. i'm banking on caraway being able to keep it standing and win a decision. stamann legit has looked pretty bad in the ufc thus far and this is a huge step up in competition.

Casual fan here watching the weigh in now. Do they always play the crappy music so loud you can't hear the commentators?

I have no idea lol probably not I can't say i've paid any attention to it in the past

Ortega looks pretty drained at weigh ins. Surprised he's moved in shorter to some degree although the overall trends been in that direction. Shame I hit Edgar so early

Upped my Soukhamthath bet to a full bet as well, so my card will rest on Soukhamthath and Edgar, with a half size bet on Dollaway

Sort of want Caraway too but no idea if he's in a good place mentally so I might leave it i'll decide tomorrow

So why aren't you on the O'Malley train tbh?

Guy is cocky.. seems to be a better striker than Souk... O'Malley just seems to have it. You'll regret betting the other way if I had to guess.

Dern/OMalley/Cyborg parley is glitchyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy
Dern not losing, and damn she is fineeeeeeeeeeee.

Cyborg will never lose to this girl lmao.

Idk why people are sleeping on Ortega. He neutralizes Frankie's strongest attribute (wrestling) so you guys are really that high on Mark Henry turning Frankie into just a top notch striker? I think Ortega pressures him, forces him in the clinch and eventually gets his neck..

hate to say it, but ya.

Gl gl, SO stoked for this card man.

Edit:

Struve I think craps on Arlovski. Size difference is massive.. Struve is impressive to me and I think he has the potential to make waves in this division... again.

Lol @ watching Cyborgs vill lmao.. I honestly think that if this guy hit Cyborg flush 3 times with her best punch.. Cyborg wouldn't hardly react. Cyborg is the most dominate individual in any non-team sport. No one is close, no one will beat her before she retires barring some freak out of no where.

Bellator 195 Risk $661.00

Darrion Caldwell (-296) vs Leandro Higo $296.00 for $100.00
Darrion Caldwell/Leandro Higo Under 3½ (+115) ~$110.00 for ~$126.50

Joe Warren (-155) vs Joe Taimanglo $155.00 for $100.00

Kristina Williams (+270) vs Emily Ducote $100.00 for $270.00

I'm on Joe Warren tonight too, just caught the line at 5D reduced @ -140

Added another 1.15 on Andre Souk at -115 also 5D reduced right now as I expected it to move with all the O'Malley talk + casual bets.

Good luck everyone

I’m pretty huge on O’Malley at +110. Think he’s gonna keep the fight at range and massively Outland souk. Won’t be shocked if he gets ko’d But he should win like 60%+ in my mind. Souk has been super average so far in the ufc. He got the ko last fight but literally lost every second of the first round. He’s so inactive on the feet.

I don’t understand the souk love here at all. Seems like perfect opponent for O’Malley

1-1 but Warren really needs to wrestle**** this guy on the 3rd FFS !!!!

there we go baby !!! Finish this **** on top babeeeeee

Oh gawd, whatta mess. 1 tiiiiiime.

yuck 2x 30-27's , thats terrible.

So why aren't you on the O'Malley train tbh?

A large part of it is I know Jim's been following Soukhamthath for years (I remember tailing his bet in the Moy rematch a few years ago) and I was quite impressed by Souk's striking in the UFC so far and he's quite unlucky to have lost two splits. If Jim's putting 11 units on something, i'm tailing it blind, and I was slightly leaning the Souk side without that. Even in one of the splits he lost he dropped the guy 3 times.

Idk why people are sleeping on Ortega. He neutralizes Frankie's strongest attribute (wrestling) so you guys are really that high on Mark Henry turning Frankie into just a top notch striker? I think Ortega pressures him, forces him in the clinch and eventually gets his neck..

Frankie's two best attributes are his wrestling and his stick and move striking. Yes, he doesn't want to take Ortega down, but you're forgetting Ortega's weakness is that his standup is BAD. Like not top 15 or even top 25 bad. Ortega has to take Frankie down or clinch to have any chance of getting a standing sub, and Frankie is fast, and has excellent wrestling and the better standup. If anyone likes Ortega they should be playing Ortega sub not straight up, because outside of a small puncher's chance the only way Ortega can win is by locking a sub standing up or if Frankie makes a mistake. This is 30-27 Edgar or a TKO for Edgar all day as long as he doesn't want into a standing guillotine, and he tends to fight smart.

Struve I think craps on Arlovski. Size difference is massive.. Struve is impressive to me and I think he has the potential to make waves in this division... again..

I actually lean Struve here as well, but the heavy Arlovski steam and the fact that we could get any version of either guy means i'm just going to leave this one alone. They're two of my fav heavyweights of all time so i'm just going to watch and enjoy and hope the winner goes on to make a run. I'll probably cheer for Struve since he's younger and has more of a chance to do that.

Edgar is by far my fav spot of the card capping wise, and i'm happily tailing Jim on the Souk train, then my Dollaway bet is basically a bet at +140 on Lombard not knocking him out in the first, Lombard is clearly washed up, he would have KTFO'd Dollaway a few years ago when he was juicing but he's 40 and on a 4 fight losing streak and has been knocked out several times, he's not going to get any better, and he has exactly one round to knock Dollaway out or he'll take over.

Not sure I see how Ortega neutralizes Edgar's wrestling. Yeah he *could* sub him, but is it really that likely? I would be concerned if Edgar isn't planning on having takedowns as part of his gameplan.