After round 1 live bet Torres +250 , I gave her the 1st round. I really like this price, better than the +220 reduced before the fight

Raw strength is the difference Torres has better technique but she's getting whatever the women's 115 version of hulk smashed is

Could still be 19-19 idk hope so

If you're supporting Jessica Andrade then Daniel Cormier's commentary favouring Tecia Torres at almost every turn is annoying.

An easy 2-0 to Andrade.

Really fun fight so far. Stawweight tends to deliver.

Yeah this is over, GG Andrade. Just so much power

R1 was legit close a lot if media have it for Torres andrade was swinging at air a lot

Torres going to lose a 29-28 here without ever looking like winning guess the price was about right.

Andrade must be one of my favorite fighters, big fan or her attitude and style, would love to see her against Rose if Rose wins rematch against JJ. Iv bet her on almost every fight, was kind of surprised that she did not had more success against JJ. But she definitely deserves the winner of Rose vs JJ.

Need Stephens to win to save my card I think I'll be up a tiny amount if he wins or down about a max bet if he loses

Hit alvey prop and straight up plus the women's under but have lost more individual bets than I've won so far

Amusingly my parlay is 0-3 heading into the last leg this card could have been a lot worse

Great approach by Andrade in the third. Really put a stamp on that. Seems to me if she was content to do this from the start Torres would have had very little to show for this fight.

Good price for Torres though after r1 given all 3 judges gave her the round. I gave it to her too but was surprised by that. Torres needed to keep it standing but she just lacks physicality

Serious Emmett steam at the end. A big worry here for Stevens might be the quick turnaround. I feel like thats a thing we've seen a lot recently. People need time to rest up before entering a new camp and cut weight again, no matter how easy their last fight was.

Ya being on the square public side worries me but Stephens looked good other than the exchange where he got dropped 10-9 Emmett but like my side

RIP baby

Yep chin and power

Stephens will beat anyone in a brawl but lose to the elite technical strikers. Emmett is still a brawler

Will have thwart to get home to total if up but I think I won a tiny amount for the card

Was that an illegal knee?

Stephens is lucky that knee to the head didn't connect or it could have been a dq looks like it landed on the shoulder

Would have been illegal if it hit the head but it looks like it missed and hit the shoulder

I'd be down for Stephens vs Holloway after max fights the Edgar Ortega winner. Holloway will wreck him via technique but it'd be a great fight

dude is a born fighter, great killer instinct!

+0.13u on my Jim tails

prepare your No Contests

What a KO by Lil Heathen! Those elbows were brutal. Another great card even though I lost a bunch switching to OSP. Still 6.91 units profit for the event.

First big play of UFC 222: ~$1,000.00 on Andre Soukhamthath at -118 vs Sean O'Malley. I already have $100.00 on him at +140 from shortly after the 5D line started getting bet down from the +180 opener. I am annoyed they had such small limits early on, and that I didn't keep betting more at + money when I could. But Pinnacle- and Nitrogen which follows their lines- has this at a significantly better price now than everywhere else. So I'm in for 11u even as a small favorite. I think The Asian Sensation should be -150 to -200 here so I feel comfortable going out on a limb.

2u on Arlovski at +190. Arlovski vs Struve in 2018 is a coin flip as far as I am concerned, especially with Arlovski coming off a win and Struve coming back from getting knocked out in his last fight.

Arlovski vs Struve is a weird one where anything could happen. I'm probably a bigger fan of Struve but they're two of my favourite HWs of all time. I'd take Struve at evens for sure but not a fan of laying -200 and the early steam was on Arlovski

In theory you'd think it'd end in a finish as both guys are more offensively talented than defensively but that depends how Struve fights; both guys can be super aggressive or tentative, i'd lean towards there being a finish but who knows.

I'll probably tail Jim on Soukhamthath just due to his confidence level despite knowing nothing about his opponent, card isn't for a while so might watch both of their last fights first

Zingano vs Vieira is interesting in theory I don't mind Zingano but the long layoff and mental state is very questionable.

Will probably take Frankie Edgar over Ortega, and/or mash a not Ortega by decision prop if it's something like -500 (unlikely but if it is) because that just isn't going to happen ever. Edgar's going to win the only way Ortega can win at any decent frequency at all is by sub imo and Edgar's never been submitted.

I think Edgar wins a super wide 30-26 type decision or gets the finish, because Ortega can't strike with him at all. Edgar will fall off a cliff at some point but we've seen no evidence of that happening yet and even Edgar at 50% of his peak will handle Ortega easily. He has a chin and good wrestling to keep it standing, has never been submitted and has infinitely better striking than Ortega.

I stand by Ortega being the least impressive undefeated fighter with 5 wins vs decent UFC level guys ever, although his offensive submissions are amazing even on the feet. I can't see Frankie Edgar getting guillotined often though.

I forgot Ortega failed a test for an anabolic steroid a while back and apologised for it. I wonder if he's still using, he hasn't failed a test since.

I also have no idea how Bryan Caraway is a dog to a guy with no good wins, is Stamann really that good? I can't remember his last fight but it went to a split decision with Duquesnoy and that's the biggest win he has.

Unless there's something i'm missing i'll take Caraway as a dog as the proven commodity; we know he's a top 10ish but not top 5 guy, is Stamann really THAT good? To beat Caraway you have to have great striking and TDD basically. I don't know enough about Stamann will have to watch his last couple fights even though I know i've seen them as I watched both events so he can't be that memorable.

Mike Pyle has no chin and is old but as a substantial dog to Ottow that's kind of tempting. Ottow's most impressive performance was taking Moraes to a split decision which he lost, at least that I can remember. He should be a fav because Pyle's chin is gone, but Pyle should have a better offensive skillset even if he's wayyyyyy past his prime and Ottow doesn't have a lot of KOs on his record.

I think I like Zingano as a dog even after the layoff; a win over Sara McMann isn't as impressive as we thought it was a couple years ago, although Zingano could be totally done. Zingano is 35 which is pretty old, but before her current 2 loss streak where she had a mental fail vs Rousey and lost a close decision to Pena who is a legit top 5 WBW she beat Nunes/Tate/Pennington back to back. I guess it's a bet on whether Zingano is still close to her prime or not after the long layoff and also how her mental state is currently after losing her husband a few years back.

I also think Lombard wins by R1 KO might be a bet vs CB Dollaway, he is insanely hittable and Lombard is a glass cannon for one round then worthless post USADA, Dollaway's been talking about how he has a permanent injury from the elevator accident. He did win a fight since then though. I'll probably bet some combination of Dollaway by decision/wins in r2/3 or Lombard wins by r1 KO if any of them seem appealing. I'm sure the Dollaway wins in r3 odds will be solid and that's definitely worth a punt given Lombard's lack of a gas tank.

Not going to make any bets yet, but i'm leaning Caraway, Zingano, Soukhamthath on Jim's read, Edgar and some combination of Lombard r1 KO and Dollaway wins in r2/3/dec. I think one of my books has a 'fighter wins in r1/2, fighter wins in r3/dec' type prop so I might see if I can get a Lombard r1 KO and Dollaway wins in r3/dec prop effectively at evens or better. I suppose Lombard could win a decision too if he paces himself for 2 rounds then doesn't get finished or tries to win via LnP but I don't think that's as likely.

I love this bet at both those prices. Andre is one of my favorite newish fighters and my GF is from Laos so we are big fans. He got really unlucky on his first 2 fights and could easily be 3-0 in the UFC. His liver shots are brutal.

I put 1.35u to win 1u at 5D just now. I also believe he is closer to -170 here.

Id go much heavier but hoping casual money (undefeated + name recognition) moves the line the other way before fight night. Great bet Jim

Does anyone know anything about Dariush's new opponent? -334 seems tempting but I know nothing about Hernandez

Trying to decide whether to take Soukhamthath and Edgar now or wait, my gut says I may get a better price on both

I know Struve vs Arlovski is made for a KO but fight to go the distance at +250 is kind of tempting if Struve fights tentatively. If he's aggressive it'll be a finish win or lose, and he has been more aggressive lately but it's possible he may not be. Passing for now though.

Trying to work out the Caraway line too, I have no idea what i'm missing as to why Stamann is the fav, but can't remember much about Stamann's fights in the UFC so far.