https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2018/2/2...y-ufc-mma-news

So this looks like Brunson steamed for a reason vs Jacare; Jacare says he was not at 100%

I am a big believer in Jeremy Stephens but I am concerned about the quick turnaround from the Choi fight to Josh Emmett, plus I think that Emmett is quite good and undervalued by MMA bettors in general. Not going to bet it.

i took barao at -150. think his skills are still there, he just breaks down vs guys who can pressure him and his cardio gives out. kelleher will try to pressure but back at 135, i think barao will be able to hit the reactive takedowns he couldn't get vs stephens to allieviate pressure. that stephens fight was ****ing close too, barao had chances to steal that third round for a 29-28 win but stephen's cardio and power were too much.

do we really think renan barao has fallen so much he's not going to beat 18-8 brain kelleher??

2u on Eric Shelton at +115 at 5Dimes. He's been getting bet everywhere and the line plummeting at most books since Perez missed weight. This wasn't one of those "good" missed weights, these are flyweights and Perez looked drained at the early weigh-ins.

anyone have thoughts on alvey? man does he look like he just gave up on mma. had to move up to light heavyweight because he basically got fat. on paper the guy he's facing is a pretty good matchup for him, wild striker, gets overextended, perfect for alvey whos pretty resistent to go first and only looks for counters but man i think we've seen the best of alvey and its all downhill from here.

Alvey was asking UFC matchmakers for a fight and suggested he could fight at LHW or MW in order to get booked quicker. He took this fight because he wanted a booking either because he was bored or wanted a payday. We'll see how it works out for him against a UFC newcomer like Prachnio. Alvey is so tentative in the standup I think it goes the distance and Alvey potentially loses a decision.

Not going as big as the last few this card but mashed a bunch of props and even a rare parlay

I think Stephens loses to more technical strikers and Emmett isn't that. Might play Stephens straight up tomorrow if the last leg of the parlay isn't live as if it is i'll have a ton on him already.

I think OSP is going to use his range to kick or punch Latifi in the head and knock him out often enough my TKO prop is good too. He'll win a decision from the outside a bit too, and sometimes lose a wrestling based decision but he has good grappling if it comes to that, granted mostly from top position not bottom. Latifi's very short and OSP is very tall; I said before I think he might win by head kick again or a counter hook as Latifi rushes in.

Barao I thought about it a bit and he had a close fight with Stephens and has only lost to elite guys. Yeah, he's clearly past his prime and looked like **** at 145, but he made weight and Kelleher is a huge step down. I think he might fight conservatively as if he loses this his days in the top 15 are done, hence the decision prop as well.

Shelton I thought did well vs Brooks and could have got the decision and also we're fading his opponent's bad weight cut if he opted to take a 20% pay cut vs cut the last 0.5 pounds, he must have been in bad shape

McMann/Reneau under for the reasons Jim mentioned; price is just too high when both women can finish via TKO or decision.

Torres is mostly an odds play; Andrade is more big than talented, Torres has decent wrestling defense and can stick and move at range. I think she could win a decision at range, although obviously Andrade is the fav. Just an odds play and fairly small.

Alvey KO again is an odds play; he's up at LHW and will have power like always and his opponent's getting a step up in competition. Yeah, he's inactive and will lose a decision a lot, but he could also land a big bomb and win via KTFO and +500 is tempting given if he wins that's likely how unless its a close boring decision.

Stephens+OSP+Barao+Shelton parlay +765
OSP by TKO/KO +267
McMann/Reneau u2.5 rounds +210
Shelton -117
Barao by decision +260
Torres +257
Torres dec +400
Alvey by TKO/KO +500

That's my card. Will also add Stephens straight up if he isn't the last leg of my parlay, but don't want to add him early when i'll already be on him to win a couple max bets if he wins and end up wanting to hedge or whatever if my parlay's live I want to feel comfortable enough to let it ride so just leaving it for now.

At a live poker tourney tomorrow so won't be able to watch live; hopefully hit some props and have a nice card.

took yahya. doane is athletic and has his moments on the feet but lets just say his tdd leaves a little to be desired. yahya should be able to take him down at will and sub/grind out a decision.

doane also kind of seems lke a pretty dumb fighter, encourages grappling exchanges quite frequently with grapplers when he should be looking to break away and strike.

put a bit on alex perez at +118, sheltons just kinda fast.

UFC on Fox 28 Risk $5309.20

Jeremy Stephens (-140) vs Josh Emmett $280.00 for $200.00
Jeremy Stephens (-145) vs Josh Emmett $290.00 for $200.00
Jeremy Stephens wins by TKO/KO (+170) $50.00 for $85.00
Josh Emmett wins in round 1 (+750) $30.00 for $225.00
Jeremy Stephens wins in round 3 (+900) $20.00 for $180.00
Jeremy Stephens wins in round 4 (+1600) $20.00 for $320.00
Jeremy Stephens wins in round 5 (+2500) $20.00 for $500.00
Jeremy Stephens wins by 5 round decision (+433) $50.00 for $216.50
Jeremy Stephens wins by 5 round unanimous decision (+460) $25.00 for $115.00
Jeremy Stephens/Josh Emmett number of takedowns draw (+205 ) ~$10.00 for ~$20.50

Tecia Torres (+240) vs Jessica Andrade $75.00 for $180.00
Tecia Torres +3½ points (-120) $120.00 for $100.00
Tecia Torres/Jessica Andrade Over 2½ (-250) $250.00 for $100.00
Jessica Andrade wins by 3 round decision (-130) $97.50 for $75.00

Ovince Saint Preux (-150) vs Ilir Latifi $450.00 for $300.00
Ovince Saint Preux (-151) vs Ilir Latifi $302.00 for $200.00
Ovince Saint Preux wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+274) $75.00 for $205.50
Ovince Saint Preux wins in round 3 (+1075) $10.00 for $107.50
Ilir Latifi/Ovince Saint Preux fight does not go distance (-110) $110.00 for $100.00
Ilir Latifi (+108) vs Ovince Saint Preux $200.00 for $216.00
Ilir Latifi wins by TKO/KO (+735) $20.00 for $147.00
Ilir Latifi wins by 3 round decision (+260) $40.00 for $104.00

Mike Perry/Max Griffin starts round 2 (-130) $130.00 for $100.00
Mike Perry/Max Griffin Over 1½ (+100) $100.00 for $100.00
Mike Perry wins in round 2 (+450) $25.00 for $112.50
Mike Perry wins in round 3 (+1150) $15.00 for $172.50

Brian Kelleher (+135) vs Renan Barao $100.00 for $135.00
Brian Kelleher wins in round 3 (+1400) $10.00 for $140.00
Renan Barao/Brian Kelleher Over 2½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00
Renan Barao/Brian Kelleher Over 2½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00
Renan Baro by decision (+250) $40.00 for $100.00

Marion Reneau wins inside distance (+435) $25.00 for $108.75
Marion Reneau wins by submission (+1100) ~$10.00 for ~$110.00
Marion Reneau wins in round 3 (+2200) ~$10.00 for ~$220.00
Marion Reneau/Sara McMann Under 2½ (+230) $100.00 for $230.00
Marion Reneau/Sara McMann Under 2½ (+195) $100.00 for $195.00

Angela Hill (-130) vs Maryna Moroz $260.00 for $200.00
Angela Hill -3½ points (+240) vs Maryna Moroz $50.00 for $120.00
Angela Hill wins by 3 round decision (+100) $75.00 for $75.00

Alan Jouban wins in round 2 (+425) vs Ben Saunders $25.00 for $106.25

Marcin Prachnio/Sam Alvey Over 2½ (+100) $100.00 for $100.00
Marcin Prachnio/Sam Alvey Over 2½ (-150) $112.50 for $75.00
Sam Alvey wins in round 3 (+1800) ~$10.00 for ~$180.00
Marcin Prachnio wins by 3 round decision (+150) $50.00 for $75.00
Marcin Prachnio/Sam Alvey goes 3 round distance (+120) $100.00 for $120.00

Rani Yahya (-225) vs Russell Doane $225.00 for $100.00
Rani Yahya wins in round 1 (+275) $15.00 for $41.25
Rani Yahya wins inside distance (+140) $40.00 for $56.00
Russell Doane wins in round 3 (+1600) ~$10.00 for ~$160.00

Eric Shelton (+115) vs Alex Perez $200.00 for $230.00
Eric Shelton scorecards = no action (-131) $131.00 for $100.00
Eric Shelton wins by submission (+801) $30.00 for $240.30
Eric Shelton wins in round 3 (+1800) ~$10.00 for ~$180.00
Eric Shelton/Alex Perez Under 2½ (+140) $100.00 for $140.00

Albert Morales (+140) vs Manny Bermudez $100.00 for $140.00
Manny Bermudez wins by submission (+170) $30.00 for $51.00

Fights to go distance under 6½ (-153) $61.20 for $40.00
Fights to go distance under 5½ (+169) $40.00 for $67.60
Fights to go distance under 4½ (+443) $25.00 for $110.75
Fights to go distance under 3½ (+1297) $15.00 for $194.55
Fights to go distance under 2½ (+4550) $10.00 for $455.00
Fights to go distance under 1½ (+28600) $5.00 for $1,430.00

Jeremy Stephens/Josh Emmett wins FOTN (+250) ~$20.00 for ~$50.00

Took a small Alvey +207 straight up be to go with my TKO prop

Took some Stephens -132 since my parlay immediately died

Was considering Yahya too but didnt want to fade the steam

Not the best start for me let's hope Alvey can get things back on track

damn wish i pulled the trigger on alvey prachnio WOAT

fight iq of a toaster lol

Not watching the card since im out atm but looks like Alvey got my card back on track there with the straight up and TKO prop

No bets for a bit until the McMann/Reneau under

had jouban smallish at opening line. have mcmann as one of my biggest bets in a long time. reneau has no chance to keep the fight standing. if she throws up a triangle or something, so be it, but mcmann is the fully evolved version of talita bernardo who reneau had struggles with.

Took Stephens at -125 just now reduced price at 5D 2.5u to win 2u

Good luck everyone

Anyone have any good avenues to watch these fights that can pm me one or two?

whoops, first round went to plan lol

need barao to salvage this card

Whops. Didn't realize this card was earlier. Just jumping on some bets for fun. Not finding time to work on my stuff recently, hopefully that's changing in the coming weeks *fingers crossed*.

Stephens, Torres, OSP, and Griffin/Perry over 1.5

3-2 but about a 5k loss

took a medium bet on stephens cause of price movement

Just caught Griffin +130 after the 1st live betting . I think he won that 1st one easily and had Perry figured out

Over cashes. Does Perry just look completely off? He's had almost nothing going for him this fight.

Perrys crazy girlfriend so -EV there. if you are just gonna scream random **** like ... Show him your strength baby .. instead of specific instructions you need to stay home.

if perry doesn't get the KO he looks very pedestrian, i.e. jouban

took andrade at -227, think striking is somewhat even but andrade will secure enough takedowns for the win. the waterson fight was rly troubling for torres in the tdd department.

Torres is landing cleaner but her punches just do not faze Andrade at all

I assume judges will score the round for Andrade on aggression even though Torres was landing cleaner pretty close round

Torres could land a free shot on Andrade with her hands tied behind her back and it wouldn't drop her though lol