omg omg !!! whatta finish !!! well done to the Beast !! thats some serious power !!

holyyyyyyyy ****ttttttt

lewis holy ****. crazy he still has the unreal power at the end.

he did one final burst after he spun away from tybura.

Nate Diaz usada gonna be testing you tomorrow lol

I usually love to fade Lewis but this felt like a perfect matchup for his power

Turns out he just got taken down a ton and fought terribly, then randomly hulk smashed him in r3 as he tends to do

We def fade Lewis vs any skilled and big fighter but we can back him vs anyone slow/hittable since he has that hulk smash power

3-2 for the card now after a 0-2 start, i'm guaranteed a small profit since Lewis was my biggest bet of the card, not at all confident in my Medeiros pick but the market likes it and Cerrone is getting up there in age, he could be done coming off 3 back to back losses. We'll see. Cerrone is not good at WW since his style is to bully his opponent and he's huge for 155 but small for 170. He'd be the perfect fit for a 160 or 165 weight class.

Will either win about half a bet or 2 and a half bets for the card depending on the result of the last fight

Swoop you cant objectively say that Lewis was a good bet. He was drawing almost dead on the 3rd and Marcin fought a great fight. These things just happen at HW

Man Cowboy looks old, 2.32u to win 2u on Medeiros 5D

Ok that was disappointing Cowboy had 0 head movement, Medeiros was just trying to put on a show and this is the result. He could have won that fight with his straight left.

i thought stoppage might have been early but no complaints from yancy.

im not convinced cowboy is back, but hes still mid range UFC caliber i think.

a 160 or 165 lb weight class would be cool for cerrone.

Cowboy is done, but Medeiros just wanted FOTN he didnt come to win

I knew Cowboy was winning halfway through the round even though Medeiros was landing better early, as soon as Cowboy started timing him it just felt like the counter-ko was coming

I'm going all in fading Cerrone the next time he faces a precision striker, he should get a top 10 fighter next after that and he is not going to win if he does get a top 10 guy, he's not getting any better and age is slowly getting him.

Medeiros just looked happy to be in the main event but that will be his first and last main event. Cowboy is done like I suspected, but he had just enough left to counter Medeiros because he was reckless and wanted to win FOTN

Won about half a bet for this card going 3-3, on to the next one.

@Nick I said I thought pre fight Lewis matched up well stylistically, obviously not as well as I thought. I've faded Lewis more than ive backed him (Hunt vs Lewis was one of my biggest MMA bets ever) and i'll continue to fade Lewis against anyone competent at either grappling and striking defense or technical striking with good striking defense and takedown defense. Obviously got lucky, but I did say that Lewis would clip him at some point and he did, but I also thought that would be because Tybura would struggle to get him down. Granted, he fought like garbage until that point. Lewis is absolutely a garbage fighter, he just has insane size and power and at HW that's enough against any non-elite non-specialist who can impose their game.

That might be the last time Cerrone wins in the UFC if he keeps fighting elite guys. He'll still beat gatekeepers for another year or two though before he's completely done so it depends who he gets next but if its a step up im fading him at WW. I've never been a fan of his really, but you have to respect the way he's down to fight anyone and fight 4-5 times a year. I can't even imagine the brutal beatdown he'd receive from someone like Wonderboy

He'll probably get the Brown/Condit winner if it's Condit or Neil Magny. It's crazy he's never fought Magny although I guess he's only been at WW for a while.

They won't give him Usman as Usman would wreck him, I can't imagine them giving him Wonderboy or Maia or anyone like that. It has to be Magny, Condit or maybe someone like Ponzinibbio. He could beat Condit via LnP or Magny via KO I guess. I don't think he beats anyone else in the top 15.

great card for me but prob got my money in bad with how big i was on sage. really thought his athleticism would be too much for gouti.

Losing card for me but felt I got my money in good with Gouti.
Looking at next week really think Emmett is a solid underdog bet against Stephens.

Not sure how to view my Trinaldo bet after that. I guess it's always hard to say even in retrospect. At least I think he had moments and wasn't drawing dead, but Vick taking that much time off in the fight and still winning wasn't exactly encouraging. -1.3u

i bet trinaldo too, line seemed appropriate maybe slight value in vick just seeing as how hard of a time trin had getting inside on vick. don't think either side was crushing this bet. i think the second round was closer than people made it out to be, though i had it scored 29-28 vick.

Huge swing in the Tybura fight with that Black Beast knockout. I totally picked Peterson, Trinaldo and Alves wrong, but the point spread wins on Trinaldo and Pudilova really saved me as well as Neal, Northcutt, Ferreira and finally Cowboy coming through with that round 1 KO in the main event. Not a bad card with $772.05 profit on the balance after subtracting a $100.00 live bet on Tybura after round 1.

Picked up Edgar -180 now that its on Pinny. Bit curious about the line movement so far, but my ability to predict line movements has been awful so just taking a price I think is okay right away.

I like it on Edgar but waiting for now.

OSP looked bad last fight til the knockout but sort of want to take him anyway

I think I like Aubin-Mercier at the current prices too. OAM is my current fav bet of the upcoming card so i'll fire once a few more books put their lines out.

Going to load up on Khabib and Rose for the April card but too far away to tie the money up. I kind of expect Rose to close at evens there so I probably should lock that up soon at +150ish

OAM opened at -112 on Pinny but only with small limits, so I maxed it 3x to get a decent but not max sized bet on at -115ish average. Only about half a standard bet still but pretty happy with it for now will wait for the market to mature a bit

Pretty sure i'm going to end up taking OSP too. Latifi is built like a brick, but OSP is going to have a serious reach advantage to overcome his technical deficiencies and he has power and he doesn't have to kick as high as usual to hit Latifi's head. He has power in his hands too. OSP will lose to technical strikers or guys who can take him down at will, but i'm not sure Latifi is either of those things. Latifi could definitely land on him

OSP certainly has a ton of problems as a fighter but he's faced WAY better competition than Latifi overall. I'm going to wait for a bit but i'm pretty sure i'm going to talk myself into taking him

Conor and Khabib are both 29

Tony Ferguson is 34

Didn't realise how big the age gap was until I looked it up. Tony's getting pretty old for 155. Pretty confident Khabib's going to make him look average. Khabib vs Conor is THE money fight and while the fight itself is likely to be completely one sided regardless of who wins it's so interesting, I think I lean Khabib there and would take either Khabib or Conor against Ferguson, but Ferguson against anyone else in the division.

That's the only think keeping me from going hard on Frankie Edgar too vs Ortega, the age factor, he's getting up there for a lighter weight class, but given he's never been knocked out he'll be able to go as long as his chin holds up I think and his submission defense should be good enough even vs Ortega and theres no way Ortega wins a decision in a million years and a tko is unlikely too.

I'll be curious how UFC handles the belt. If Diaz vs McG 3 isn't already in the works it feels like the UFC is doing everything in their power to grease the wheels for a Khabib vs McG in Russia fight in the fall.

why do you like OAM? burns and his grappling game should cancel out and are you that confident betting on OAM's striking?

I just saw this on wikipedia.
Burns was scheduled to face Olivier Aubin-Mercier on February 24, 2018 at UFC on Fox 28.[29] However, on February 21, 2018, both Burns and Aubin-Mercier were pulled from the card, as promotional medical team deemed Burns would be unsafe to meet lightweight upper limit of 156 Ibs limit upon his arrival at the fight week.[30]

and that fight isnt listed on ufc.com

edit: holy **** he was gonna cut 30 pounds before friday lmao.

Burns was great value at +155 where I bet him and especially at the peak of +170. If he had only come in a little closer and cut down to 160, took the -30% penalty and benefited us backing him it would have been great. Shame that fight is off.

Some of my other thoughts and bets on the card:

I took Jeremy Stephens at -145 over Josh Emmett. Emmett's recent highlight reel KO of Lamas was very impressive but Stephens is a better striker and has faced much better competition in his long UFC career. Only one KO loss for Stephens in 41 pro fights. This is also Emmet's first five round fight. 2.9u to win 2u.

Good price of +108 on Ilir Latifi over OSP at BetOnline. Think he can use wrestling and if he doesn't get knocked out like OSP did to Corey Anderson he can win a 3 round decision at least. Took it for 2u.

I like Angela Hill ML -130 vs Maryna Moroz. Angela has improved a lot in her UFC, Invicta and back to UFC campaign. She'll be a much better striker than Moroz and won't be easy to take down or submit. She actually gave future strawweight title challenger Jessica Andrade a good fight on short notice not long ago. 2.6u to win 2u.

Sara McMann does have quit in her despite being an Olympian and Marion Reneau is a 40 year old high school gym teacher. Both these girls have subbed their opponents and gotten subbed multiple times in their careers. It's always somewhat risky in a women's bout, but I like the under 2½ at a high price of +195 in this case.

I like Mike Perry/Max Griffin over 1½ at +100. These guys both have some quick KOs but only over lesser competition. They'll have to respect each other on the feet at first to feel each other out. I think this will go at least until round 2 and maybe even into 3 or possibly the distance.

I like Renan Barao/Brian Kelleher Over 2½ at -125 as well. Barao might not look great but he should be savvy enough to not get stopped at least. And if he does look better than expected he's likely win a decision not get some highlight reel stoppage. His last three fights vs Sterling, Nover & Stephens went the distance and even his stoppage of Mitch Gagnon in between the two TJ Dillashaw fights by submission occurred in the last part of the third round and also covered the over 2½.

I figured OAM would get top position a lot and not get submitted against Burns despite Burns being the better BJJ practitioner and win a competitive decision. OAM is pretty solid on the ground himself and I figured he'd get top position a lot.

Seems like it doesn't matter now anyway as the fight is off. I'm thinking maybe OSP ITD/Latifi decision could be interesting, will do a bit more analysis there. I agree with Jim that im leaning Hill against Moroz even though I like Moroz more as a fighter, Hill isn't an amazing wrestler but her TDD is okay enough to probably keep it standing and Moroz has better BJJ than wrestling. Her striking is solid, but Hill's is better so I figure Hill's likely to land more in a fight that takes place mostly standing. Haven't bet it though.

I do think the UFC needs to just change something with weight cutting to make it same day weigh ins and you step on a scale on the way to the cage it's ridiculous the amount of cards that are ruined by weight cutting, and it's unfair that some guys come in with a ridiculous fight night weight advantage, it's meant to be about who the better fighter is not the better weight cutter

Does someone need to die to change it? It feels like nothing's going to change until someone else passes out weight cutting and this time hits their head and doesn't wake up. Same day weigh ins on the way to the cage (or 15mins before walkout if they dont want to televise it), same penalties of losing x% of purse for missing weight and any fighter that misses weight a second time in say 5 fights or less is forced to move up a weight class and just shuffle all of the names of the weight classes up by about one weight class in weight so LW is 170, WW is 185, FLW is 135, etc - move LHW to 220 or 225 and HW to 300 and we're good.

I agree w Jim about the over in the Barao fight too, not sure about Perry/Griffin as i'd have to watch some Griffin tape as I can't remember his last few fights. I agree about the womens under being value at that price too, good chance I tail some of those. I'm definitely not betting on Latifi, but may not take OSP either, I might consider an OSP ITD prop if the price is solid as if he wins it'll probably either be by submission or head kick/Latifi walking into a counterpunch.

I quite like Stephens at -145 too but I think that price is gone. I'm pretty low on Stephens compared to most, but his last fight vs Choi was one of his most impressive fights ever, and if he can lure anyone into a brawl and see who drops first he's likely to come out on top. Emmett seems like he has a swing for the fences style standing and the way to beat Stephens is through being more technical and using stick and move and counter-striking and that just doesn't seem like Emmett's style.

Back to having no bets for the card anyway with the OAM/Burns fight cancelled