I just took Joby Sanchez -127, Lewis +116 (im taking him at his word his back is healthy), Medeiros at +118 on a slow mover and Ferreira at +216 on a slow mover

I'm mostly taking Joby on the line move/good price vs current line; Tybura moves slow so i think Lewis can land on him maybe and while Lewis lacks striking technique he does have hulk-smashing ability. Medeiros is mostly a fade on WW Cerrone + some line movement and I don't think Cerrone can bully him the way he does in most of his wins. Ferreira i'm just quite impressed by as a fighter, losing to guys like Poirier is nothing to be ashamed of and he's got some solid wins, i'm just not sure Gordon should be more than a 2 to 1 fav, plus Ferreira has steamed in a bit too vs the price I got. I did mention him yesterday when he was still +2xx on Pinn though anyway.

Considering a Vick prop of some sort as well and then thatll do me for the card

edit: Diluted my Ferreira price to +201 to get a full bet on along with the other 3. Decided to pass on Vick; I think he's going to win but the line just isnt good enough

Sort of backing away from my Medeiros lean a bit I might end up arbing it, but Cerrone is really small for WW and coming off 3 losses including that Till knockout. Keeping it for now. Cerrone has definitely faced the better guys and if he goes on a 4 fight losing streak that'd be pretty crazy but it could happen; he fights best when he can bully guys and he can't bully the bigger fighters at WW.

Millender is huge. Considering him on size alone although Alves probably has better technique I haven't seen enough Millender

Vick huge as expected going to just fire him smaller than my other 4 bets straight up.

Forgot Ferreira got usada'd

I like it a lot less now might arb tomorrow idk well see what lines do. He did look good at weigh ins though

Decided to add some Moras +128 vs Pudilova. I forgot how good her record was and this one feels more like a pickem. Pudilova got all aggro at her at weigh ins too. Beating Evans-Smith is no joke and while Moras doesn't look dangerous at all I think the fight should be at least a pickem after looking at it a bit more. Plus I got a price that is close to an arb vs Pinny although not quite so pretty happy with it

Medeiros +118
Ferreira +201 average
Joby Sanchez -127
Lewis +116
Vick -223
Moras +128

Thats my card so far, only one that isnt in good vs current lines is Vick and it's only narrowly outside. I do think he wins, but he is probably only something like a 2 to 1 fav so I don't love the bet. Lewis and Vick fighting in front of their home crowd could help a bit plus sway the judges in the case of a close 29-28 type fight in either of them. Kind of want to fade Sage but Gouti has never impressed me at all and Sage should beat him. The UFC definitely want him to, lol

I think Gouti is decent value. It was only a fight ago that Sage lost to Mickey Gall who is lower tier in the UFC.

Gouti has fought the better competition and I think Laprise and OAM would both starch Sage. I think Gouti is probably closer to a 3.0 dog then 4.0. He is also training at Jackson Wink so he is at a good camp.

Will keep fading Sage until he shows his is a well rounded fighter.

Forgot that UFC was going up against the NBA on a Sunday night this weekend. Also forgot that the UFC are in Texas as well.

Am sorely tempted that if a fight is seemingly going to decision and it does go to the judges to just bet against the favourite in live betting as it seems to be going that way lately...either that or live bookies suck in thinking who wins the fight. Also, it's Texas so hometown cooking and bizarre scoring will surely be served as the dish of the day tonight.

The Devon Alexander/Victor Ortiz boxing match has ignited my paranoia but thankfully Don Griffin (had it 115-113 Ortiz) and Javier Martinez (114-114) are not involved in MMA judging but Glen Crocker (114-114) is.

Have no idea who the judges are tonight though.

The worst judges scorecard I've ever ****ing seen in my life, just amusing.

huge on sage, this is a squash match.

took under 2.5 mrono/burkman -117
took trinaldo +200
huge on sage avg of like -295ish
cowboy -102, think ill add some.

couldnt find anything i really liked on the undercard like i usually do.

UFN 126 Risk $3877.50

Donald Cerrone (+100) vs Yancy Medeiros $200.00 for $200.00
Donald Cerrone wins by submission (+425) $25.00 for $106.25
Donald Cerrone wins inside distance (+172) $50.00 for $86.00
Yancy Medeiros wins in round 1 (+551) $20.00 for $110.20
Donald Cerrone wins in round 2 (+675) $25.00 for $168.75
Donald Cerrone wins in round 3 (+1150) $25.00 for $287.50
Donald Cerrone/Yancy Medeiros Under 2½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00

Marcin Tybura (-110) vs Derrick Lewis $220.00 for $200.00
Marcin Tybura wins by decision (+302) $50.00 for $151.00

Francisco Trinaldo (+195) vs James Vick $100.00 for $195.00
Francisco Trinaldo +3½ points (-120) $120.00 for $100.00
Francisco Trinaldo wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+626) $25.00 for $156.50
James Vick wins by submission (+353) $30.00 for $105.90

Thiago Alves (-150) vs Curtis Millender $300.00 for $200.00
Thiago Alves wins by 3 round decision (+168) $75.00 for $126.00

Steven Peterson (+160) vs Brandon Davis $100.00 for $160.00
Steven Peterson wins by submission (+700) $30.00 for $210.00
Steven Peterson wins in round 3 (+1750) $20.00 for $350.00

Sage Northcutt (-305) vs Thibault Gouti $305.00 for $100.00
Sage Northcutt/Thibault Gouti Over 1½ (-137) $274.00 for $200.00
Sage Northcutt wins by submission (+460) $25.00 for $115.00
Sage Northcutt wins in round 3 (+900) $10.00 for $90.00
Sage Northcutt wins by 3 round decision (+295) $50.00 for $147.50

Carlos Diego Ferreira (+170) vs Jared Gordon $100.00 for $170.00
Carlos Diego Ferreira/Jared Gordon Under 2½ (+172) $100.00 for $172.00

Geoffrey Neal (-185) vs Brian Camozzi $185.00 for $100.00
Geoffrey Neal -3½ points (+125) $75.00 for $93.75
Geoffrey Neal wins by TKO/KO (+166) $30.00 for $49.80
Geoffrey Neal wins in round 1 (+250) $25.00 for $62.50
Geoffrey Neal/Brian Camozzi Under 1½ (+122) $40.00 for $48.80
Geoffrey Neal/Brian Camozzi Under 2½ (-175) $52.50 for $30.00

Joby Sanchez (-140) vs Roberto Sanchez $140.00 for $100.00

Lucie Pudilova -3½ points (+225) vs Sarah Moras $100.00 for $225.00
Lucie Pudilova wins by TKO/KO (+1100) $25.00 for $275.00
Lucie Pudilova wins in round 3 (+2175) $15.00 for $326.25
Lucie Pudilova wins by 3 round decision (+100) $50.00 for $50.00
Sarah Moras (+125) vs Lucie Pudilova $100.00 for $125.00
Sarah Moras wins by submission (+567) $20.00 for $113.40

Alex Morono (-321) vs Josh Burkman $240.75 for $75.00
Alex Morono/Josh Burkman Under 2½ (+115) $100.00 for $115.00

Oskar Piechota/Tim Williams Under 2½ (-155) $116.25 for $75.00

Fights to go distance under 6½ (-160) $64.00 for $40.00
Fights to go distance under 5½ (+135) $40.00 for $54.00
Fights to go distance under 4½ (+350) $25.00 for $87.50
Fights to go distance under 3½ (+985) $15.00 for $147.75
Fights to go distance under 2½ (+3250) $10.00 for $325.00
Fights to go distance under 1½ (+18000) $5.00 for $900.00

time for burkman to hang them up, that records getting grisly

omg what an awful standup, fade grapplers!

added a half bet on neal at -194, just cause i thought camozzi is awful, easier fight than i thought.

can't ever see sage as a title contender, he made hard work of that fight

wow got bad end of that price, glad i came out on top. think it was a pretty clear 29-28 though.

Was half-expecting a contentious split decision but Sage got 3x29-28s. Round 1 was more Sage but you might have liked what Gouti was offering there but round 2 was Gouti's. Thibault didn't really do anything in those takedowns in round 3 as Sage responded with elbows to the head & body.

Feel the only person who can complain tonight so far is Sarah Moras who was made to stand up in round 1 by Jacob Montalvo which more than likely changed the dynamic of the fight in favour of Lucie Pudilova.

hes an odd duck. flashes of amazing technique combined with all the physical talents but hes just lacking something.

Not watching live as I'm out today but I saw millender wrecked alves nearly fired him on weigh in alone looking forward to catching that fight

1-2 so far but the win was on a dog down slightly heading into the last 3 need 2 of the last 3 for a decent card biggest bet is lewis

trinaldo had nothing for vick. i thought trin was tough enough to go judges and i was right. +150 for vick judges. vick was never hurt and just did whatever he wanted from the outside via kicks and knees.

Just got home in time to watch comain and main, i'm 2-2 for the card with Moras and Joby losing and Ferreira and Vick winning so far

Lewis and Medeiros to close it out although im not sure on Medeiros will decide during walkout if I keep it. I got +118 so its very arbable to freeroll at least if I decide to

Let's go Lewis, Hulk Smash time. I think this comes down to is he really healthy, Tybura will struggle to get him down and while Lewis has bad technique he's really strong and is the better striker, I don't think Tybura can take him down at will which means Lewis clips him at some point imo

Tybura (-105) 2.1u to win 2u at 5D

wow whatta fight !!! go Tybura !!!

heavyweight is such a weird class. like lewis just sorta lost balance and fell and couldnt get up quick enough.

alright !! **** him up Marcin !!

im surprised hes so easily able to control him and lewis is such a massive HW, dammit black beast

perfect second round. Tybura needs to take him down asap on the 3rd, Derrick is exhausted.