Yeah, makes sense.

But what else can I really go off of. Brendan was realllllly hyping him up so I had to believe. ;p

Thanks for that over Jim

Anyone betting Bellator?

Huge odds drift on Mcgeary, likely he is injured?

I was thinking about Fedor and Bader for Bellator but probably going to just pass. Fedor and Mir are both so far past their primes anything could happen and while i'm pretty sure Bader is better at everything than Mo and that Mo is drawing dead, not a huge fan of laying -275 on a guy with a history of upset losses like Tito and a slightly below average chin in Bader

Value play at Bellator 194: Female boxing champion Ana Julaton who is making her Bellator debut this Friday is a whopping +290 against fellow former professional boxer turned mixed martial artist Heather Hardy. Julaton is 2-3 as a pro and has previously fought decent competition in One FC in Asia. Hardy won her MMA debut in her first Bellator fight impressively, but then got outstruck and TKOed when she got her nose smashed in via a kick by a more well rounded martial artist who herself was making her pro MMA debut in Hardy's most recent bout to bring her record to 1-1.

It makes zero sense for Hardy to be such a big favorite, especially after her last fight. I consider this a who knows pick 'em type of fight and therefore Julaton at +290 has serious value imho. For what it's worth I also listened to an interview with Julaton on The MMA Report podcast and she sounded like she felt disrespected and determined to show that she is the better fighter. 2u on Julaton at +290.

Bader's something like 19-1 as a favorite. He maybe got lucky against Latifi though.

He was an underdog against Jones, Teixeira, Machida and Johnson. They all closed at -244 to -285. Tito was the only upset loss.

That's a good point actually I thought there were more for some reason. Mos striking sucks and I doubt he can outwrestle Bader so Idk How he can win

Bader and Mitrione fights aren't on this card tho

Mitrione one is according to wiki, I was going off bestfightodds and thought they had a huge card coming up but half of the fights are on different cards

Will probably tail Jim on the women's fight but not going to bet a ton on this one I don't do well on bellator in general

Heather Hardy looked decent in her first Bellator fight, then lost via doctors stoppage to Kristina Williams. It was Williams first fight but she looked fantastic.

Julatons last split decision loss looked like an amateur level fight IMO. Perhaps +290 is too high, but I think Hardy is clearly the favourite (stronger, fitter, hits harder, looks bigger/heavier too.)

Despite the updates about Heather's tough weight cut and slight miss on the scale, just wanted to temper expectations on Ana Julaton now that I had a chance to re-watch her Bellator debut at Bellator 185. She threw good kicks against a part-time fighter who stepped in on four weeks notice, but she seemed like she was moving in slow motion, almost refused to throw punches at all and got taken down three times. She did get up twice though in round one and two.

For her to win this she has to look a lot better than that first performance by putting together her boxing with her kicks, plus having more urgency. Maybe even using wrestling herself. I have to believe that she's been training and her coaches will have her looking like a more complete fighter. So it's a value play with Julaton as nearly a three to one underdog, but a lot of the outcome depends on how Julaton looks compared to her previous Bellator fight.

I also like the over 1½ on Mitrione vs Nelson at -135, and Mitrione by 3 round decision at +278 in the main event. Patricky Freire by 3 round decision at +234 vs Derek Campos. Also like Liam McGeary scorecards=no action vs Vadim Nekmov. Liam has never been KOed, but he might get wrestle****ed or outpointed if he doesn't get a submission with his long limbs or other finish.

Backed Julaton at 3.9 as its a good price compared with Pinny and 5dimes.

Watched her a few times in One FC and don't expect too much. Hardy showed she is pretty green in her last fight so hopefully its at least competitive.

I quite like mitrione Dec too but no bets for now. I'm actually on holiday atm so will probably miss the bellator card gl all

Bellator 194 Risk $1408.00

Roy Nelson +3½ points (+100) vs Matt Mitrione $100.00 for $100.00
Roy Nelson/Matt Mitrione Over 1½ (-135) $135.00 for $100.00
Roy Nelson/Matt Mitrione goes 3 round distance (+135) $75.00 for $101.25
Roy Nelson wins by 3 round decision (+500) $40.00 for $200.00
Matt Mitrione wins by 3 round decision (+278) $75.00 for $208.50

Patricky Freire (-178) vs Derek Campos $178.00 for $100.00
Patricky Freire wins by 3 round decision (+234) $50.00 for $117.00

Liam McGeary (-130) vs Vadim Nemkov $130.00 for $100.00
Liam McGeary wins inside distance (+140) $50.00 for $70.00
Liam McGeary scorecards = no action (-140) $140.00 for $100.00

Ana Julaton (+290) vs Heather Hardy $200.00 for $580.00
Ana Julaton +3½ points (-135) $135.00 for $100.00
Ana Julaton scorecards = no action (+170) $100.00 for $170.00

Glory 50 Risk $1225.00

Murthel Groenhart/Harut Grigorian Under 3½ (-145) $145.00 for $100.00
Murthel Groenhart wins in round 2 (+500) ~$20.00 for ~$100.00

Richard Abraham/Malik Watson-Smith Over 2½ (-150) $150.00 for $100.00

Benajamin Adegbuyi (-130) vs D'Angelo Marshall $130.00 for $100.00
Benajamin Adegbuyi (-130) vs D'Angelo Marshall $130.00 for $100.00

Guto Inocente (-150) vs Junior Tafa $150.00 for $100.00
Guto Inocente/Junior Tafa Over 1½ (-140) $140.00 for $100.00

Sitthichai Sitsongpeenong (-260) vs Christian Baya $260.00 for $100.00
Sitthichai Sitsongpeenong/Christian Baya Under 4½ (+170) $100.00 for $170.00

Yeah, I meant Bader and Mir actually.

Saw that on bestfight too, it had been there for awhile but then on the 1/20 card I saw that each tourney fight is on a different card.

Hey Jim, You owe me a beer for compelling me to watch that Ana/Heather fight.

Thought the score was right. Roy needed to be more active after the takedowns the first 2 rounds.

Didnt actually bet or watch this one but I saw Mitrione won a decision so that was nice, and Hardy won a competitive decision there so not quite

Not much standing out on the next card, i'd take Lewis except his back might be questionable and I did like Medeiros when his price was higher, I think I still do but i'm going to wait for the weigh ins probably

I think Vick should beat Trinaldo due to Trinaldo's age/Vick's size too but not betting it at current price

Joby Sanchez seems to be steaming hard

Sort of tempted to fade Sage -300 by default but Gouti is pretty bad from memory i'll need to rewatch some tape

I need to remember what Gordon looked like against Dias I can't remember that fight but Carlos Diego Ferriera might be value at +2xx. Will need to watch tape before the card.

I don't even remember who Millander is against Alves so will have to refresh my memory there

Joby Sanchez might be worth a look too some early steam and the name sort of triggers a memory of being impressed by him but i'll need to rewatch his recent fights to remember as well

That Hardy vs Julaton fight was tough, low life grappling. Julaton throwing back elbows of the ground exposing her neck was so frustrating after backing her.

Quite like Lewis tonight but with his back injury problems think its a bit risky.

Eyeing Trinaldo vs Vick. Dunno when to fire though.

Vick is always huge at weigh ins. I think everyone knows that he's huge by now but who knows.

In their last 8 fights its moved in Vick's favour 4 times and Trinaldo's 3 times so neither is exactly attracting steam every time they fight so it seems like it could go either way.

I think Vick should win but not super keen at the price when Trinaldo could grind him out the way Matthews was having success early against him until he made a mistake, but Vick's size and youth advantage is huge and he's improving pretty fast.

Yeah, I've been on Vick twice now I think and won. But I think Trinaldo is still in it and afai can gather will have some advantages in wrestling. I took Trinaldo +205 and draw +6600, thinking Vick could get a 10-8 round while Trinaldo grinds out two. Realized after I placed the bet that I should have checked what rules are in play for this card.

Took Meideiros at 2.2 with a few bookies that were slow.
Backed Cerrone at 1.95 for small arb.
Which is my only action so far for tonight.

Gouti's odds stand out just because Sage is still pretty green.

vick is underrated imo. amazing record against mid/high level ufc caliber opponents. im def picking him again.

also has almost 10 years less of mma wars than trinaldo. also hes 6 foot ****in 3 at LW and trinaldo is 5'8 lol. i can only imagine the reach.