couldnt have said it better myself.

Caceres is all flash, no substance. He looked good against Cole because frankly, everyone looks good against Cole.

Thats a good call - Cole Escovedo is like Danny Downes, his opponents always look like world beaters

Put a 'to win 1 unit' 2.x unit bet on Stephen Thompson. His record is pretty amazing, his opponent is unknown and he's been strongly recommended in thread.

I'm pretty heavily exposed if there are a lot of upsets this card but so long as either Werdum wins or most of the other favourites win ill be fine

Interesting enough the line moved from -266 to -271 immediately after my $240ish bet (already had 25 on him at -260) so there mustn't be that much money on that fight, or someone made a large wager at the exact moment I did - seems weird a small bet like that would move the line by itself

Ok so I have

50 on Condit to win 85.50
444 on Werdum to win 335.96
266 on Thompson to win 99.09
270 on Herman to win 100
240 on Barao to win 100
230 on Kos to win 100
80 on Figueroa to win 62.50
8.85 to win 1.97 on Poirier (lol sweat)
15.15 to win 4.84 on Brown (lol sweat)

About 16 units in play on this card to win about 9 units, I could get crushed if the underdogs clean house, but I doubt it. This is a favourites card imo and I expect to get 7/9 a lot here or even 8/9 if I run good and 6/9 most of the rest of the time.

Will probably parlay the 8 favourites (everyone but condit) into all of the possible 7-fight-parlay combos for 10 bucks per bet if the odds are right, if not then I won't bother.

Actually adding another 100 on Figueroa because as just_mo says, pretty sure Bruce Leeroy is going to get crushed by anyone not terrible

1u Thompson 1.4
1u Poirier 1.25
0.5u Kuiper 2.75

Here are my bets - I'm personally staying away from Thompson due to too many variables. Also, don't know why, but I felt like betting my entire account. I know it's not much to some, but usually I'm betting around half this on a specific card. FWIW.

Favorite Parlay - Brown + Riddle + Herman + Poirier - 10 to win 15 (I'm about 0/45 on four fight parlays, love the sweat though)


Underdog Parlay - Sittigen + Jorgensen - 2 to win 17.90

Realistic Parlay - Brown + Herman - 10 to win 7.44

Straight up - Herman - 10 to win 3.33

I went back and forth about wether or not to gamble on the main event. Carlos has always been one of my favorite fighters. I still remain (so I think) impartial when it comes to betting however. I watched the weigh-ins yesterday and dumped the rest of my money on Condit. Something told me it was right. That little voice in my head and little rumble in my stomach told me to pull the trigger, so....

18 on the new Welterweight Champion of the woooooorld, Carlos Condit! to win 31.50

You feel the sweat yet? I do.

Hey i'm thinking of redepositing on 5d to get some more parlay action on the many locks on this event. Do any US players know if they are still accepting US visa depos and whether or not they have legit US cashouts should i actually hit a few?

O US guberments why take down my ways to watch these !!!! Should be an amazing card tonight boys.

If anyone likes Herman like Swoop does, can you please bet him enough to move the line at the low price of -272 on Pinny? I'd like Starkes to get back to the +250 - +260 range. I miss Matchbook.

The favorite lines on bodog have moved quite a bit between last night and today, shifting back and forth. Got Poirier at -400 this morning and I'm pretty happy about that.

I see almost no chance Starks beats Herman, I will be shocked if he wins. I watched his debut and he was extremely unimpressive. Meanwhile Herman has been crushing people (lower level fighters, granted). Further, Starks' main strength is wrestling, while Herman has showcased a very dynamic and dangerous guard his last couple of fights.

I don't think he's looked super-impressive in either fight of his I watched but he's a better wrestler than Herman and conservative in the guard so if he can take Herman down, he'll lay on him for 3 rounds. Obv if Herman's wrestling is close enough to Starkes' then he should tool Starkes on the feet. Guess we'll see. Someone hit Starkes after I posted so I fired my bets just now anyway before it gets worse so I'm done betting unless it makes it back to where I bet him earlier.

Weird, someone else who just has Pinny as far as big MMA books must have hit it multiple times after me since there was a scalp for a bit on Pinny vs 5d and BM.

just bumping my picks so i can find them more easily

4-2 ytd+1 unit
werdum-128

also condit will be a play but i will likely place the bet right before the fight as the line is slowly going up.

Condit needs to come out and land some thing meaningfull with power early and if he gets DIAZ going end him, he wants to use his technic and speed early.

If Diaz gets his jucies going from mid rd 2 condit is all over,

If I was condit I would I would look to end Diaz in the first because if he doesnt it will be a slow death, Diaz is a beast but Condit looks sharp and confident you can see he is living it.

One of the sickest fights ever, im actually leaning to condit at +190, Condit is the danger guy here.

A fight between diaz and gsp would have a lot more chracter than condit vs gsp.

You all should be rooting for diaz here even if you have units on Condit.


go diaz

Anyone got a good stream for prelims? Can only find main card stuff at the moment.

Just woke up to find i'm 1-0 so far, good start

Nevermind found one. PM me if you need it.

No idea how to score that, the groin kick, then Cacares gets dropped and nearly finished, then dominates the rest of the round?

O jebus that is a crazy 1st round. I would have to give to alex, but pride rules Figueroa. Idk hard as fack to score that one.

hahah so many nutshots.

If he doesnt lose a point there... ffs aim your kicks properly

Figueroa is trying to pressure Herb for the point deduction although it is warranted in this case

yea man, def need a point deduction here, thats just too much of an advantage.

Oh wow 2 points thats harsh I was expecting 1 point

Cacares can still 30-27 it but I hope Figueroa can win a round and make me money

Figueroa's hurt though you can tell