machida +230 has me baffled a bit, thoughts? obv, getting old, just got murked by brunson, but still that big of a dog seems crazy to me, especially in Brazil

I know anders is a young up and comer, but he hasn't fought anybody in the top 20 (ish) yet

I was initially surprised by the line but I think I agree with it.

Lyoto will be 40 in May. Coming off of back to back KO losses. One shot KO losses. Small sample but did not look good at all off of the drug suspension. If you are backing him, what is the path? He's going win by stoppage? He's going to last five rounds without getting clipped again?

While the Rockhold loss appeared to be ground issues, it all started off of a weak sauce back hand that floored Machida. Punch resistance goes for a guy that fights with his hands by his waist, not good.

I guess he could land a kick for the finish akin to Dollaway or Munoz.

anyone seen JimGunn ? miss his posts here

Machida looked very old/done against Brunson but this is a HUGE step down in competition from a long list of top 10 fighters for him. I haven't watched much tape on Anders yet but his only notable win is Rafael Natal.

Lyoto is sort of in a similar position to where Tito was pre-Bader where he'd fought a bunch of killers in a row where Tito was coming off looking horrible against Hamill, then went on to go 4-4 in his next 8 fights (granted he lost 3 more vs contenders post Bader before going 3-1 in Bellator)

It'll be very interesting to see whether Machida is just totally done, or is just unable to compete against top 10-15 guys anymore. Anders isn't really even the best matchup to decide that since he's unbeaten but against nobodies, it'd be better if he was facing a known mid-level guy so we'd have a better idea where he stacks up

I did say I was done betting on Machida for good after Brunson, but I may fire one more time especially if the price gets above +250 and its looking like it might. I do need to watch Anders last couple fights first as I do remember him beating a can in one of those fights but can't recall much about how it went down. He does have a decent amount of TKOs on his record but it's so hard to say since Machida's been fighting top 10 fighters in every fight except Dollaway (who was top 15ish at the time) for something like 19 fights straight and Natal was lower ranked at the time he fought Anders than anyone Machida has fought since at least 2007 which was so long ago it's irrelevant.

Machida looked lost on the ground vs Brunson and Rockhold and got crushed by Brunson on the feet but Brunson is an elite striker and top 10 fighter. Machida should be able to compete with slower guys through his superior technique as long as he can keep a fight standing, I mean he was holding his own with Romero in a close-ish fight until the finish standing and that was one fight before his current fight

Wild card of course is Machida is getting old, looked terrible in his last fight and could have got USADA'd although it's very depressing if thats the case as he was one of my 'most likely to be clean' elite fighters, I think it's more likely age got to him and his chin is fairly gone but who knows, given his friendship with Anderson who turned out to probably be cheating his whole career (and definitely post-leg break)

The skillset that made him the UFC champ is still there he's just old and slower - I mean he did better against Jon Jones than anyone other than DC and Gus

Interestingly betting lines have Machida as a big fav if it goes the distance which makes sense as if he gets taken down he's shown weak defense on the ground but if he can keep it standing and not get knocked out he should outpoint any non elite fighter, it was only 3 years and change ago that he made Mousasi look helpless on the feet (well not a one sided beatdown, but a very clear decision)

I'm sort of tempted by Moraes as he could easily catch Means in a sub and is a decent dog, he got KTFO'd by Usman last fight but is generally a solid mid level fighter with elite BJJ and while Means has a better striking offense he's prone to making mistakes and getting submitted and he's just not that good

I think Thiago Santos will win by TKO but the odds aren't super appealing. Smith is not super impressive to me.

Maia Stevenson looked terrible on TUF but her relatively unknown opponent is -3xx and not too keen on laying that price on random prospects in WMMA. Maia also lost to Sijara who it turned out was good enough to be a fav in the final before her injury so it may not be as bad a loss as it looked.

I remember being impressed by Golm's grappling and bet on him in his debut, I know Johnson's a striker but he's weird, he loses a decision to Albini who was terrible against Arlovski, loses to smotherhumper Rosholt but then takes Volkov who is quite good now to a split and beats Omielanczuk, Tybura and Adburakhimov.

Obviously Shevchenko should win vs random undefeated prospect chick who has beaten up cans but never laying a ridiculous price on her when she's so inactive at times and can give rounds away.

I've always been really high on Dodson but sort of question whether he cares anymore when he's so far from a title shot, he should win the fight but not betting either side there, for some reason I think Munhoz might beat him.

Doesn't seem like a super appealing card for betting overall.

Took Dodson at 1.7 and Machida by KO at 6.5.

Dodson is the quicker, hits harder and has the better footwork. Maybe you can question if he still really wants it but he was competitive with Moraes in his last fight. If he knocks out Pedro he would only be 2 or 3 fights away from a title shot.

Machida is one of my all time favourite fighters. So maybe there is a little bias in backing him by KO but I think there is some value in it.
He did look old in his last fight and punch resistance doesn't seem to be there anymore, Also much like Anderson he relied on his reflexes earlier in his career which have faded. But if he does find a way to win this fight, I think he catches Anders moving and puts him out.

No bets for this card, my only bet Munoz didn't make weight

Machida by KO looks tempting but i dont rlly see winning a fight

gl everyone!

I was out of town on business for a solid week which took me out of the MMA betting bubble for two weekends in a row and put me way behind all the news and stuff. But I'm betting Machida today as a big underdog for better or worse. This is a big step up for Anders and I'm willing to back Machida one more time at these prices despite the fact that he does poorly against southpaws. I'll have more or less full action on today's UFN 125 Belem card. I'll probably end up posting my bets late in the afternoon.

Ended up w 5 bets so far

Santos -277 (I just don't see him losing to Smith unless what he gets taken down and randomly submitted? Lombard is washed up and was handling Smith until he went full Lombard

Machida +235

It's Lyoto Machida at +235 in Brazil. He's still never lost to a non elite guy. Yes, his chin is shot and he's old but it's a HUGE step up for a guy whose best win is Rafael Natal

Moraes +174

I think he can catch Means or if he can get some scrambles he could win rounds. I do think he's a dog but more like a +150 dog. Wouldn't be surprised if he guillotines Means or latches onto his back.

Vera -125

I don't really have a lean in this fight but it's an arb vs the Pinnacle price so I just took it for the sweat

Green +120

Same as Vera fight. Got a good price on a stale line so just jumped on blind for the sweat.

I'm hoping Machida wins by crane kick and then retires in the ring. You can't compete at this level in your 40s especially when yr game is all about speed and elusiveness.

I mean, you can, just not against top 15 fighters. Hell, Tito is still picking up wins, he just needs to fight to his level as he's not the same fighter that was invincible 10 years ago.

Although at some point if it gets like it is now with Gomi you just can't compete with anyone anymore and it's time to hang it up. Machida is nowhere near the 'losing to cans' level yet; I mean he could be and we don't know it but his current losing streak is to top 10 guys. We'll have a better idea where he stands after tomorrow; if he's at least competitive he can continue fighting at a lower level, if he wins he may even still be fringe top 15 and if he gets destroyed in under a minute then its time to call it a career

I hope that this isn't the last we see of the Dragon; i'd be happy to see him headline fight nights in Brazil against mid level guys for a few more years if he can still go just not against the elite, I even bought his shirt when I first got into MMA, he was my original favourite fighter (along with Brock Lesnar since UFC 100 was my first ever UFC event I watched). If he loses badly I want him to retire for his own safety but if it goes the distance win or loss or ideally if he wins it'd be nice to see him either go out on top or keep fighting at a decent level if thats what he wants to do, just let him fight guys who aren't top 10 since he's not at that level any more. I can't imagine that there are no guys in the UFC at MW that he can't beat, I mean he's not going to lose to guys like Francimar Barroso from the last card who are in the UFC in the same division as him more than half the time, the guy couldn't touch Villante for most of the fight and he's the most hittable guy on the roster lol

I just found Eryk Anders KO R1 @ +225 so i might fire that and some Machida @ +225 to have some fun, i think betting the same amount in each bet is the way too go

Comon Jim post already the pics for tonight. I need to win some monies.

UFN 125 Risk $3113.00

Lyoto Machida (+245) vs Eryk Anders $250.00 for $612.50
Lyoto Machida wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+550) $40.00 for $220.00
Eryk Anders wins in round 1 (+145) $75.00 for $108.75
Lyoto Machida wins in round 1 (+1000) $10.00 for $100.00
Lyoto Machida wins in round 2 (+1600) $10.00 for $160.00
Lyoto Machida/Eryk Anders Under 2½ (-220) $220.00 for $100.00

Valentina Shevchenko/Priscila Cachoeira Under 2½ (-122) $91.50 for $75.00
Valentina Shevchenko wins by submission (+210) $40.00 for $84.00
Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 3 (+900) $20.00 for $180.00

Michel Prazeres (-115) vs Desmond Green $230.00 for $200.00
Michel Prazeres scorecards = no action (-205) $205.00 for $100.00
Michel Prazeres wins by 3 round decision (+170) $100.00 for $170.00

Marcelo Golm/Timothy Johnson Over 1½ (-140) $140.00 for $100.00

Marlon Vera (-140) vs Douglas de Andrade $140.00 for $100.00
Marlon Vera wins by submission (+400) $25.00 for $100.00

Thiago Santos wins in round 1 (+170) $35.00 for $59.50
Thiago Santos/Anthony Smith Under 1½ (-115) $115.00 for $100.00

Sergio Moraes (+175) vs Tim Means $100.00 for $175.00
Sergio Moraes +3½ points (-155) $155.00 for $100.00
Sergio Moraes wins by submission (+480) $25.00 for $120.00

Damir Hadzovic (+210) vs Alan Patrick $200.00 for $420.00
Damir Hadzovic scorecards = no action (-135) $135.00 for $100.00
Damir Hadzovic wins by TKO/KO (+415) $25.00 for $103.75
Damir Hadzovic wins in round 2 (+925) $15.00 for $138.75
Damir Hadzovic wins in round 3 (+1200) $15.00 for $180.00
Damir Hadzovic/Alan Patrick Under 2½ (+179) $100.00 for $179.00

Polyana Viana -3½ points (-215) vs Maia Stevenson $107.50 for $50.00
Polyana Viana wins by submission (+175) $50.00 for $87.50
Polyana Viana wins by TKO/KO (+447) $25.00 for $111.75
Polyana Viana wins in round 2 (+450) $25.00 for $112.50
Polyana Viana wins in round 3 (+925) $15.00 for $138.75
Polyana Viana/Maia Stevenson Under 2½ (-112) $56.00 for $50.00
Polyana Viana/Maia Stevenson Under 2½ (-112) $56.00 for $50.00

Joe Soto (-120) vs Iuri Alcantara $120.00 for $100.00

Deiveson Figueiredo (-147) vs Joseph Morales $147.00 for $100.00

Added more on Fig with this late line movement: Deiveson Figueiredo (+115) vs Joseph Morales $100.00 for $115.00

Well at least Jim is on the same side as me on 4/5 fights today, feels good, only one we disagree on is Green/Prazeres and that was a line movement bet more than any real personal opinion

gl!

Pinnacle finally has props for this UFC card hopefully we get all of the finish/dec props etc on every card from now on

Moraes narrowly outstriking Means over two rounds this is good. I expected him to be shooting more. It's nice he can just pull guard whenever he wants and be fine. R2 was close, 1 was close too. Could be 19-19, could be 20-18 Moraes, who knows, it's in Brazil so I don't mind my chances if it goes to a split. if Moraes wins R3 ill be confident if he doesnt could go either way

Moraes looking tired but this round is close too anything could happen on the cards

Means def winning r3 so far though

Probably a small dog to get the decision now that Means wins r3, but it's pretty likely to be a split dec

Whew I was hoping Moraes would edge it especially in Brazil, could score that one either way depends who we think won r2. Was worried Sherdog had r2 unanimously for Means, but I thought it was a coinflip round live.

Nice start to the card for me getting an underdog, hopefully Santos can keep the good times rolling up next. Little bit of late Smith steam so I won't beat the close, but I do think Santos wins.

ouf Means got robbed there. Not the biggest robbery but still that was easy to judge

Its rlly hard to win a 3rd decision in Brazil man, Tim Means had that one

I think r2 was a legit coinflip. But yeah, in the USA Means probably wins it more often than not. It's not a decision i'd get upset about or anything though compared to some robberies. I obviously wouldnt have been upset to lose the decision either but I didn't hate my spot going to the cards there on at +174 I thought i'd get it like half the time in Brazil, and probably a quarter of the time in the USA.

I tend to factor the home crowd judging into any fight likely to be close in Brazil. There can be exceptions though like Machida vs Davis was a clear Machida win in Brazil yet Davis got the decision

2-0 start for me with Moraes and Santos winning.

Added a small Golm -164 bet too, I bet him in his debut, obviously a big step up but i'll take the prospect over the established mid level HW I guess especially in Brazil.

Green, Golm, Vera, Machida from here after a 2-0 start. My Vera -125 looking great vs current line, kind of annoyed I didn't get more on it as it's one of my slightly smaller bets

Vera looks... not good. Crazy given he steamed so much

Sort of considering getting off Green since the Brazilians are all crushing it today but we'll wait and see

About to be 2-1 for the card

Added more on: Michel Prazeres (-110) $220.00 for $200.00

I'm also on Prazeres at -110 (5D) 1.1u to win 1u

Reports say that he is at 180lbs+ right now and his opponent had the chance to refuse the fight (as they gave him up to 173) but still took it. Not sure if that's a smart decision, at that weight that's a big difference. I understand the mentality but still not a good move to fight a rehydrated WW.