Rizin FF 8 was a fun card last night, 4.46 units profit.

Just want to point out that on the ceremonial weigh-in show on FS1 they showed a brief video clip of Cyborg once again specifically mentioning the word submission in relation to this fight. She has mentioned ground game and submission in every text or video interview I have seen this week. I know she has zero submissions on her record in nineteen pro fights, but she sure has it on her mind.

One of my locals had Smolka at +265 still so added on to make it a max bet since I like that side anyway plus hes been steaming in. Improves my average price to +244ish there.

Four big bets now on Khabib, Smolka, Esparza and Akhmedov. Hopefully I get 3/4 of them or even all 4 would be sick but 2/4 should show a small profit depending which two. Pretty happy that I win 2/4 on average here despite having one fav and three dogs.

I kind of like a Cyborg sub prop because Holm clearly has a weakness when it comes to submission defense, wouldn't be surprised

I'm actually considering that the most, and thanks Jim as I wasn't aware of that interview but had already taken note of the Cyborg sub prop potential - she's got solid grappling credentials shes just never needed to use them. Could easily see her getting a takedown and submitting Holly as she turtles from GnP at +1000ish its worth a shot.

edit: Added a small 0.1u sweat on Cyborg sub +1000. Got a couple base units each on my 4 main bets.

Everyone made weight and Khabib didn't even find a way to injure himself. We actually have a card where everyone made weight people (well, except Moraes in his weird attempt to maybe fight Rivera)

Did a bit more tape, cardio issues slightly worse than I remember for Akhmedov but he's almost always winning the fight early even in fights he went on to lose. Hopefully not cutting to WW helps his cardio out and he improves his strength and cardio by going up in weight. Whittaker did it and it worked out.

Slightly less confident than I was a day or two ago in my bets but I still expect to win 2/4 on average and I think i'll get 3 a reasonable percentage of the time.

Khabib easily made weight, he is talking about future move to flyweight now. I'd feel better about my bet on him if he was going to the heavier LW he usually is come fight time.

Cyborg fought a world champion kickboxer a few years ago, can't remember her name but she was a Dutch girl. Cyborg didn't win that fight iirc, just goes to show that while Cyborg steamrolls her opponents most of the time, when she faces legit opposition it's a different question.

The sub should be her bread and butter play, imo. She might not have a better opportunity to get the win. Can she stand and bang with Holly, hell yeah, she might even have the edge, who cares, it won't be a huge edge, perhaps 60%.

On the ground though, well she has to be 80%+ favorite there imo. Can see her win with a sub!

I'd say it's a lot more than 80% given how helpless Holm looked on the ground against Tate and Rousey. Only got a tiny play on the Cyborg sub but considering making it a real play I guess i'll decide tomorrow. I think Cyborg has an edge standing for the first few rounds though too, after round 3 or so Holm might have an edge on the feet if Cyborg gets tired. Hulk smash bullrush/takedown/submission is the easiest gameplan for victory for Cyborg though.

Khabib said he was promised a title shot with a win; I think he's largely driven by competition and is just going to take the low variance approach of shoot until he gets a takedown then wreck Barboza from top position. Barboza has to be so careful with his kicks given the stylistic matchup. Yeah, he has a puncher's chance, but he doesn't have the precision and hand speed of a Conor or even a Holloway which is what it might take to beat Khabib standing before he takes you down. The other route is to be a striker with Maia level BJJ who is happy to throw hands standing and work for subs/sweeps from the bottom.

Smolka and Esparza lines have moved in a bit from the prices I got, Akhmedov drifted very slightly. Khabib price better than best available current price but around the current novig line. Overall i'm in decent vs current lines, can't complain. I'm getting pretty tempted by Miles Jury as his price drifts in too.

Jorina Baars vs Cyborg Muay Thai fight mentioned above.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5QDryuUQKo

iirc Barboza curled up like a ***** on the ground vs an opponent, I can't remember who he fought but I remember it being him. Man, Khabib has me worried, we know he likes to test his standup game vs his opponents, and I suspect it will be no different vs Barboza, he says it is plan to stand with him. He almost got put out by Johnson. He need to be careful, Barboza might put his lights out.

I do think Barboza might finish Khabib but his only chance is by tko/ko and I give him perhaps 25%. I don't see him stopping Khabib's takedowns, there's just no way anybody stops em in that division. So yeah if Khabib takes it there then that's obv round and possible the whole match.

But Khabib has me worried, he seems like the unpopular kid at school who tries waaay to hard to be liked, ie: everybody knows he dryhumbs is opponents to death, and he knows that everybody thinks that of him, so he tries so hard to be the knockout guy.

Sooner or later he will get caught doing that, could be Barboza!

Taking a Barboza by tko/ko R1/2 prop looks like a good bet. As the fight goes on I think Khabib wears him down and takes a lot of energy away from Edson.

Wouldn't Kevin Lee matchup well with Khabib at LW? Probably the only guy he couldn't ragdoll with wrestling/grappling?

I'd be very surprised if Khabib lost this fight unless he tries to stand but I just don't see it, fight is too important.

Progress has been surprisingly slow, so I just placed some bets for tonight not based on model at all. Surprisingly excited for this card. A real fight for Cyborg, Khabib fighting, I kinda like Calvillo, several other good fights. Couldn't resist betting something

Hooker +170
Justino -350
Calvillo -217
Condit -152
Jury -176
Nicolau -223

UFC 219 Risk $4184.50

Cris Cyborg -5½ points (-225) vs Holly Holm $225.00 for $100.00
Cris Cyborg -5½ points (-275) vs Holy Holm $275.00 for $100.00
Cris Cyborg wins by submission (+950) $50.00 for $475.00
Cris Cyborg wins by submission (+1000) $50.00 for $500.00
Cris Cyborg/Holly Holm starts round 2 (-254) $762.00 for $300.00
Cris Cyborg/Holly Holm starts round 2 (-296) $148.00 for $50.00
Cris Cyborg/Holly Holm Over 1½ (-207) $207.00 for $100.00
Cris Cyborg wins in round 3 (+700) ~$30.00 for ~$210.00
Cris Cyborg wins in round 4 (+1350) ~$30.00 for ~$405.00
Cris Cyborg wins in round 5 (+2400) ~$30.00 for ~$720.00
Cris Cyborg wins by submission in round 2 (+3000) ~$30.00 for ~$900.00
Cris Cyborg wins by submission in round 3 (+4000) ~$30.00 for ~$1200.00
Cris Cyborg wins by submission in round 4 (+5500) ~$30.00 for ~$1650.00
Cris Cyborg wins by submission in round 5 (+6600) ~$30.00 for ~$1980.00

Edson Barboza (+240) vs Khabib Nurmagomedov $100.00 for $240.00
Edson Barboza scorecards= no action (+177) $100.00 for $177.00
Edson Barboza wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+498) $50.00 for $249.00
Edson Barboza wins in round 1 (+898) $25.00 for $224.50
Edson Barboza wins in round 2 (+1200) $25.00 for $300.00

Dan Hooker (+160) vs Marc Diakiese $100.00 for $160.00
Dan Hooker wins by submission (+850) $15.00 for $127.50

Carla Esparza (+200) vs Cynthia Calvillo $100.00 for $200.00
Carla Esparza/Cynthia Calvillo Over 2½ (-215) $215.00 for $100.00
Carla Esparza Points Victory or Technical Decision (+374) ~$30.00 for ~$112.20
Carla Esparza wins by split decision (+1000) ~$15.00 for ~$150.00
Cynthia Calvillo wins by split decision (+550) ~$15.00 for ~$82.50

Neil Magny (+145) vs Carlos Condit $100.00 for $145.00
Neil Magny (+140) vs Carlos Condit $100.00 for $140.00

Khalil Rountree wins in round 1 (-125) vs Michal Oleksiejczuk $62.50 for $50.00

Myles Jury/Rick Glenn Over 2½ (-200) $80.00 for $40.00

Marvin Vettori (-225) vs Omari Akhmedov $225.00 for $100.00
Marvin Vettori wins in round 3 (+941) $15.00 for $141.15

Matheus Nicolau (-210) vs Louis Smolka $210.00 for $100.00
Matheus Nicolau (-220) vs Louis Smolka $220.00 for $100.00

Mark De La Rosa (+185) vs Tim Elliott $100.00 for $185.00
Mark De La Rosa (+185) vs Tim Elliott $100.00 for $185.00
Mark De La Rosa/Tim Elliott Under 2½ (+180) $100.00 for $180.00

No fights end in submission (+460) $10.00 for $46.00

Khalil Rountree wins Fastest KO (+200) $25.00 for $50.00
Neil Magny/Carlos Condit FOTN award winner (+700) $15.00 for $105.00

Cris Cyborg wins POTN bonus (+130) ~$15.00 for ~$19.50
Edson Barboza wins POTN bonus (+415) ~$15.00 for ~$62.25
Khalil Rountree wins POTN bonus (+304) ~$15.00 for ~$45.60
Marvin Vettori wins POTN bonus (+1200) ~$15.00 for ~$180.00
Matheus Nicolau wins POTN bonus (+700) ~$15.00 for ~$105.00

Round Robin of Two-Team Parlays Risk ~$30.00
Cris Cyborg/Holly Holm fight ends in round 3 (+550)
Edson Barboza/Khabib Nurmagomedov fight ends in round 3 (+600)
Daniel Hooker/Marc Diakese fight ends in round 3 (+800)
Carla Esparza/Cynthia Calvillo fight ends in round 3 (+750)
Neil Magny/Carlos Condit fight ends in round 3 (+750)
Khalil Rountree/Michal Oleksiejczuk fight ends in round 3 (+800)
Myles Jury/Rick Glenn fight ends in round 3 (+900)
Marvin Vettori/Omari Akhmedov fight ends in round 3 (+650)
Matheus Nicolau/Louis Smolka fight ends in round 3 (+900)
Mark De La Rosa/Tim Elliott fight ends in round 3 (+850)

Decided to arb out my Magny bet by taking some Condit at -145. Have a pretty decent sized bet on Holm (including some props which could payoff huge if they hit) but otherwise not a lot on this card. Happy New Years everyone.

Can you bros hook me up w a stream please ? PM me

Parlay
Khabib Nurmagomedov-360 Cristiane Justino-325 Neil Magny+115
Risk $70.00 Win $181.50

small sweat ftw. hats off to holm or barbosa if they pull it off.

Rountree ITD (-250) 5u to win 2u

Tony Weeks and Sal D’Amato (yes, those two jokers) scored Vettori/Akhmedov as 28-28 but Glenn Trowbridge scored it 29-28 to Vettori. Thought Marvin stole it particularly with the third round. Scored the second round to Omari but favoured Marvin's work in the first to score it 29-28 to Vettori.

The three judges for the Cyborg vs. Holm fight are Derek Cleary, Dave Hagen and Chris Lee. I suspect their services won't be needed though as barring Holm just fighting at distance to avoid being KOed, it should finish inside the distance.

I will be amazed if Cyborg could pull off a submission win but 2017 being what it is, nothing is surprising any more.

Guys... I'm getting that Holm feeling. GL to those that have her!

Looks like I came close with my dog play on Akhmedov with him winning the first 2 rounds on most media cards but he ran out of cardio in the third; just woke up and tuning in now. Smolka didnt even come close although I crushed the closing line at least.

MEDIA SCORES
Andrew Lawrence
MiddleEasy.com 29-28 Vettori
MMAJunkie.com 29-28 Vettori
Jed Meshew
MMAFighting.com 28-28 DRAW
Rob Tatum
CombatPress.com 28-28 DRAW
Paul Fontaine
WrestlingObserver.com 28-28 DRAW
Dominik Durniat
Extreme Sports Channel 28-29 Akhmedov
Steve Duncan
mma.uno 28-29 Akhmedov
Matthew Wells
FanSided.com 28-29 Akhmedov
Ryan Frederick
WrestlingObserver.com 28-29 Akhmedov
Brian Knapp
Sherdog.com 28-29 Akhmedov
Josh Stillman
Sherdog.com 28-29 Akhmedov
Tristen Critchfield
Sherdog.com 28-29 Akhmedov
Eddie Mercado
BloodyElbow.com 28-29 Akhmedov
MMAMania.com 28-29 Akhmedov
Felipe Freitas
mmabrasil.com.br 28-29 Akhmedov

Feels like I was moderately unlucky there to only get the draw and that a 10-8 third wasn't guaranteed although I haven't seen the fight yet will watch it after. Jury wins but didnt end up firing it so i'm 0-1-1 so far. Hopefully Esparza and Khabib can get me to a winning card but i'll need both so i'm a dog now as one would be a small loss for the card.

Condit price is getting super tempting although im not a fan of fading that much steam will see how he looks walking out I guess. He did move in vs Maia and Woodley and out against DHK and Diaz though so its not like the steam has a history of being super accurate in Condit fights

Wow if Rountree had any cardio he'd have won by now but his cardio is worse than most HWs

Saki has iffy cardio too but he's going to wreck Rountree if they ever fight

Rountree has really low fight IQ he is 0-2 , 1-1 at best and he is striking from the bottom instead of getting the **** up. What a moron.

Lots of Holm/Magny/Esparza/Khabib steam for the main card. Pretty happy to just be on Esparza/Khabib at good prices and a tiny sweat on Cyborg sub. I kind of want Condit too but i'll just cheer for him as a fan the huge line move is a bit scary. u2.5 at +160 looks decentish though. Will think about it

Couldn't resist Barboza at +305. Added.

Anybody else think Magny got this?

Magny +3 1/2 (-160) 1.6u to win 1u