£75 cost of calling that, should have updated it the other way so £75 goes the distance, what ever.

great card, had no business betting either of the guys in the main, betting for fun is not what we are here for..

Wtf was that robbie lawler seemed sedated or something. I guess Rory was right USADA Robbie Lawler is ****

was slightly worried that barrage didnt seem to phase him. but it was somewhat misleading, as on the replay, the punches were not landing very clean.

on another note, when was last time, if ever, lawler got dominated like that? woodley vs rda sounds good.

It was a very entertaining main event fight. Big card for me, $1212.88 profit including a couple of winning live bets. More if Robbie/RDA gets FOTN.

Good call on Błachowicz Jim and RB. Put one unit on that at plus 158 just based on your guys recommendation, appreciate the good insight.

Hit on RDA for two units at plus 110 but lost one unit on Darren Stewart at plus 280, so up 2.78 units overall.

Missed the card ended up oversleeping but will catch the highlights, I just wasn't that excited for this one for some reason, nice card Jim, I was considering Di Chirico as well but glad I skipped it overall, Blachowicz won but Lawler is pretty done as a contender and would have lost for me so glad I backed off that lean and the Perry/Ponzi under. RDA vs Woodley might be interesting due to RDA's style, Woodley can't win a decision through inactivity. I guess that's the fight to make unless you want to cash in on Colby being a heel while he's in the news a lot and try and turn Woodley into a loved champion. I'd be down for Wonderboy vs Covington though because a highlight reel finish is what Wonderboy needs to be interesting again to casual fans and if Covington beats Wonderboy then he's 100% earned a title shot.

Assuming Condit beats Magny (or even if he doesnt tbh) there is no reason not to make Condit vs Lawler 2 too as the main of some fight night or Fox card, let's see who wins when we add another five rounds onto one of the best fights ever now that neither is in title contention.

In fairness the dude has fought over 17 years and been through some insane wars, including a rough knockout not that long ago. Maybe USADA but maybe not.

I am a big fan of his but I hope he doesn't fight again. He never seemed like the sharpest dude in interviews but he sounds worse than ever now. I'm concerned for his long term health.

2-0 night for me. Ponz fight was a little bit scary but his sharper technique and control of range came through in the end.

Really enjoyed the card as a whole some great fights.

December 30, 2017 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Pretty straight forward for me next card, i'm betting Khabib, Rivera or Rivera by decision and Condit or Condit by TKO/ITD assuming lines open about where I expect with Khabib and Rivera as small to moderate favs and Condit in about a pickem.

Might consider Jury if hes only a small fav and Esparza if she's a substantial dog too. Maybe Akhmedov too depending on the price.

Definitely liking 219 for betting more than I liked this last card.

After that one I really hope I get Choi at pickem prices or as a dog to Stephens. Stephens will stand and bang with him and Choi is younger and has better accuracy and technique and a good enough chin to take some shots. Stephens might be able to wrestle-**** him to a decision if he comes to wrestle, but that's not his style at all against a guy who will stand and trade with him. Pretty good chance it'll get FOTN too if it goes for over a round and a half.

Assuming Usman vs Meek happens i'll be all over Usman too if he's anything less than -400. Mismatch. Usman is probably a better prospect than Colby Covington with a ton less hype.

Also I love betting on Darren Elkins and will out of principle if he's a huge dog like usual, but if he's at close to pickem odds i'll have to take Michael Johnson, i'm not sure Elkins is physical enough to hold him down for 2 rounds (although he'll try) and Elkins is drawing super thin on the feet. Will be interesting to see the odds; if its a pickem I probably take MJ but if Elkins is his usual +200 or more I may just have to since betting on him has given me my best ROI out of any fighter i've bet on a ton of times with a long UFC career probably.

Uriah Hall by KO seems like a fairly easy bet vs Vitor too or fight doesnt go the distance depending on prices. Vitor is done unless he's juicing for one last fight he has 2 minutes to knock Hall out then hes done. Actually, I may just bet the under in this one if it's at all reasonable.

James Krause could be a bet if it's close to a pickem too and I assume PVZ will be an unbettable fav but if she isn't seems like a bet vs Clark even though PVZ is very green she should be improving more than Clark even with all of the distractions she's had and if she's less than -200 its probably a bet.

Choi, Usman and the under in Hall/Belfort all seem like must bet spots unless the line is way different to what I expect (Usman could open -800, but if he opens -400 im on it). Would be shocked if Choi was more than -175 and happy to take him to about that, expecting more like -135 and thinking we might get u1.5 rounds at -125 or something for Hall/Belfort although maybe not it could be -200 or whatever. Might just bet fight doesnt go the distance if it's -300 or better or take Hall by TKO if the line is at all reasonable.

I think Condit is gonna be at least -170 fav, and agree on the rest for 219 Khabib is gonna smash anything around him unless edson he can connect a flying knee or something and its imposible to KO Lineker so that makes sense

Really hoping to get a better price on Holly something around +350, but im not sure i will get it.

Cant wait to see the Lima/McDonald odds im all over the Red kind

Edson Barboza = Kicker's Chance?

We have heard the phrase "Puncher's Chance" in boxing and MMA, but in MMA, I think Barboza defines Kicker's Chance.
#Spinning_Stuff*

* = grown folk's talk for "stuff"

Mangy train , condit past prime

I’m not sure I’d take Condit as a big favorite over Magny, Condit’s well past his prime and Magny’s long and has a pretty well rounded skillset (although obviously vulnerable to leg kicks, which Condit is quite good at). But I think Magny’s length could cause Condit problems.

Also agree on Usman, I think he’s the future champ. Only problem is Oddsmakers seem to have reached that conclusion too.

Francis Ngannou for + 10 units ftw ?

Its HW man i dunno man too much variance imo, Ngannu by KO @1.83 looks nice tho

I completely agree with this fwiw (I think his last 'prime' fight was the Lawler war; that fight ended both of their primes) but his biggest weakness is guys who can take him down easily and hold him down; i'm not convinced Magny is that and Magny doesn't have the best chin.

I would fade Condit vs most of the top 15, Magny is one of the few guys I like his side. Won't lay -170 if its that but will take it in a pickem.

Few random overseas books seem to have Khabib about -300 range, i'll pass if it's much above -200. Will consider Khabib ITD instead at like +160 or better; Barboza has more of an elite offense than elite defense and i'm not sure he survives 3 rounds on his back if Khabib can take him down at will and both the TKO from GnP and sub are possible (and if he can't we're probably getting a Barboza UD or TKO)

If Rivera dec is +100 or better vs Lineker definitely getting on board that train too; Rivera is a decisionator and has better technique than Lineker, Lineker has a chance to KO anyone but isn't going to be winning the decision often and he has an iron chin for BW so he's not getting finished by Rivera unless it's by a random submission and Rivera isn't exactly known for that

Hopefully we get some lines soon it's a numbered card and only 12 days away

Opened. +170 mangy all day.

Leaving Condit alone for sure at current price may even play Magny if he gets to +200

Tilted I missed Khabib -205; took a little -231 and will prob play some ITD once line drops.

Took some Choi -160 and Rivera -178 too.

Very likely to add Khabib ITD and Rivera Dec.

Oezdemir +241 tempting too but ill wait. DC getting older and he's coming off getting TKO'd by Jones. He could get booped. Oezdemir has power. Obv DC is the fav, but I don't hate Volkan as a decent dog.

Likely to play Esparza if her price keeps rising +251 is already ok, Calvillo's looked legit but she hasn't faced a wrestler of Carla's caliber yet. Could easily get LnP'd for 2 rounds.

Annoyed at myself missing Khabib -205 open i've been watching the markets all day waiting for the open on Pinny since 5d posted theirs.

I think the Condit/Magny line is about right, maybe -160 Condit or so, so def going to leave that alone but might take either side if it moves a ton. I think Khabib is probably closer to -300 but not super excited about -231 the way I would be by -205, i'm hoping to get some Khabib to finish him at like +160 or something.

Not super excited by the Choi line either but I do think he wins 2 in 3 or so, so taking a small amount for now.

I like Whittaker price too but not going to tie up the money this far in advance for a line that wont get much better or worse probably.

Don't you think Calvillo is a bit too dangerous on the ground? Tbh I can't remember right now if we've seen much of her off her back, but I would be scared the whole fight if I had Esparza and she way laying in Calvillo's guard all night even though I thought that was the way to win Am I crazy for thinking the more likely way is that Esparza keeps the fight standing and just outpoints her? IIRC Esparza was looking better on the feet in her last outings.

EDIT: By the fightmetric numbers she did NOT do as well as I remembered in her last two.

I need to rewatch a bit, I remember seeing she was only 2/4 for stuffing takedown attempts though or something on fightmetric across last few fights and while Carla's striking isnt elite its improving.

It's just a big step up in competition for the price, will get on Esparza whenever the price stops drifting. I think Calvillo is more like a -150 fav than a -250 or more fav.

Got me some Magny too. Like him as a dog versus Condit.

I like Magny. A perfect example of someone who has maximized his gifts and masks his shortcomings. He's just limited. Limited subs. Moderate TD game. Moderate top control. Below average stand up.

With the exception of Gastelum, when he's won he's done it primarily with cardio/conditioning. The next person to out cardio Condit will be the first.

Is Magny going to take him down and control him? Sub him? KO him? He sure isn't going to out point him standing.

This seems like a perfect get well fight Carlos. If he's past it I'm wondering where that became evident. Knee injury against Woodley. He blew through Alves. IMO he beat Lawler three rounds to two. He made a fatal mistake early against Maia.

Everyone at the top of 171 is his age or older.

Meh, I see the argument for Condit, and maybe I just have a higher opinion of Magny than you do, but I think Magny could cause Condit problems. Magny is younger, is a significantly better athlete, and has reach on Condit. Condit also has a ton of mileage on him, I realize he's only 33 but 40 fights is a lot, and he's had some absolute wars. We'll see what happens. I think Condit probably deserves to be a favorite, but IMO he's more like a 55% favorite than a 2-1 favorite. Perfectly happy to take Magny at +170.