Kind of agree that Ortega is gettin better and should not be faded at all. After thinking about it some more and how easily he beat Cub, I think he whips Aldo for sure, and has a decent chance vs anybody, really. Like Willkn says, they must fight perfect vs him, while he can just steamboat forward until he locks in that sub. His stand up is improving, once that's on par, he'll be very hard to beat. He'll be like how Aldo use to be (perhaps not that great but pretty solid stand up, for sure), great stand up, never needed his BJJ but it was there just in case.

Obviously Holly is the play, the further the fight goes the more likely she is winning. Koolwhynot asked why she wins in 4th or 5th round. Simple if the fight gets past the 3rd, nobody thinks Cyborg has the gastank to actually go 5 rounds. We all know Holly can, Cyborg looks very prone to gassing, I have seen it in all her fights and her muscles and the way she fights, super explosive and goes for the kill early.

One thing I'd like to point of Cyborg is no Valentina. Sure Shevshenko was probably the best striker Holly faced and she did well, holding her own but and there is a big but, Cyborg isn't a counter striker, so the million dollar question is can Holly evade Cyborg from pounding her face in, especially 1-3 rounds? Will Cyborg get as frustrated as say Ronda?

Balla you compared Cyborg to Bethe, but cmon, they not even on the same planet here, only thing they have in common is that they are Brazilian and have similar build. But Cyborg striking and the way she fights, it's on a different level all together.

Holly does have good footwork, range, she knows how to fight, she's smart, listens to her coaches, they have game plans etc.

Q1: Will Holly be able to evade the barrage, the storm that Cyborg will bring in R1 and R2, after that she slows down considerably, to where I am confident to say that I don't see her getting a finish in R3. So really only 2 rounds in my opinion. Can Holly evade for 10 mins? She has done it in the past but not vs elite pressure fighters, so this is a big question mark?

Q2: Will Cyborg take it to the ground at all? I feel Holly is somewhat weak on the ground, Miesha choked her out and if anything is weak in her arsenal it's probably her ground game. That said, Holly's pretty strong but so is Cyborg, so.... Personally I don't think Cyborg will be attempting any Subs or going for takedowns, well I'm hoping for that anyway.

Can Holly evade Cyborg for 10 mins? Has Holly ever been finished? I think Cyborg's only path to victory is a finish, that might prove harder than everybody thinks imo!

Holly does not need power imo, fighters that gas, they give up easily, no need to damage them, all Holly needs to do is dance with her for 10 mins, after that Cyborg becomes soft and Holly will steamroll over her.

I like Fedor as a dog!
Ngannou big fav vs the champ, obvious but was hoping for a pickem!!!

Best underdog of the UFC on Fox Winnipeg card for my money is Jan Blachowicz at +160 vs Jared Cannonier. This feels like a pick 'em to me, or maybe Blachowicz should be slightly favored if anything. Blachowicz is coming off a great finish and he hung in there at the very top of the division in his recent fights win or lose, even out striking Gustafsson at points in their fight last year. 2u on Blachowicz.

Best bet on Cyborg/Holm bout at UFC 219 is over 1½, even at -207 now. I took it to win 1 unit. Also took a little on starts round 2 at -296 to win .5 unit.

As we near the close of 2017 and my bets are even still on the cooking pot,

I just want to say that UFC has delivered above and beyond in all ways above expectation in production and all manner.

Quite frankly I don't know how to describe the add that UFC has made to my life as a MMA fan! and also part time better.

Every thing I have touched has multiplied but nothing is compared to the show that is UFC.

Rooting and tooting for all MMA thread betters and cage side walkers.
Sick card set ups all the year. Look how insanely good this year has been.

Only thing I have to say about 2017 is can we go back to the start of it and go again...


2018...... a golden harvest for MMA

edit; UFC there is nothing even remotely close,

C.Sonnen vs Q.Jackson
Fight Result (2 way):*
Jackson, Quinton To Win
Stake: 27.00 (maxed out line)
Potential returns: 48.33

Quinton cooking the airways making it known the dog is in town for weeks now, man has to know what is said can be heard dam :-)

Hope to see a fight Quinton keeps on the feet...

F.Ngannou vs S.Miocic
Fight Result (2 way):*
Ngannou, Francis To Win
Stake: 125.00
Potential returns: 210.00


Miocic looks like a deft ricky hatton arm and elbow power puncher, that's not going to work against a mountain that is not there to be chipped way... Miocic is going to have huge problems to deal with in r1..

that's its I'm done now for the rest of the year, Robbie Lawler v Rafael Dos Anjos ITD is interesting?

Agree with Blachowicz being a decent dog. He seems to be consistently underrated. One of the better recent cards for betting this. On Blacho and Ponz for this card which I feel really confident are solid value spots.

One of my bigger bets this year is Ponz. He is a really bad match up for Perry, uses his range really well, great jab, physically strong. Think Perry is going to be eating shots trying to close the distance for the majority of the fight.

Hey, there doesn't seem to be much discussion regarding Lawler v RDA yet. What are people thinking? I'm leaning towards Lawler but hard to back against RDA given how good he's looked at welterweight.

Shadowing RB
Santiago Ponzinibbio @ 8/15
Mike Perry v Santiago Ponzinibbio
Fight Outright
Stake:
£80.00
Potential Returns:
£122.67

I like the thought process here, but I can't bring myself to bet against Mike mother****in' Perry. Dude's too entertaining to root for.

Do you guys have any thoughts on Misha Cirkunov versus Glover Texeira? I haven't had time to watch any tape, but I recall thinking after that Gustafon fight that Texeira looked old and washed up. Then again, his only losses have been to elite competition (Jon Jones, Phil Davis, Anthony Rumble Johnson and Alexander Gustafson.) Still, 38 in fighter years is ancient, and he's been on the wrong end of some savage KO's. Gotta wonder if he's still the same guy he was a few years ago.

I picked up 2u on RDA at +110 when the line first opened. I don't necessarily think it's a great spot, but I do think that RDA is the smarter / more skilled fighter and has more ways to win.

Then again, Lawler is a savage in the ring and for some reason I've never liked him (not sure why, he seems like a nice enough guy, but w/e) and I've always been a fan of RDA, so could easily be biased here. I don't think it's necessarily a great spot either way, I'd say RDA is probably like 55% to win if I had to pick a number.

your bets (1)

Single - Rafael Dos Anjos v Robbie Lawler
No - Fight to go the Distance?
Odds: 8/13
1 lines at £200.00 per line
Total Stake for this bet: £200.00
Potential Return:£323.08

looking into the ponz bet, it is a good pick,

- Alan Jouban beat Perry with all around MMA game and Santiago is better than Jouban, I would say by quite a bit, Santiago is a champion there is no other word for him.

- Alan Jouban lost to Gunnar Nelson and it doesn't work like that, but yeah Santiago beat Gunner.

Also from tape, Perry beat Danny Roberts and Danny was in Perrys wheel house for 3 rounds, yes Perry has a killer right hand but it took him time and he was in his element.

Well Perry is not going to be in his element vs Santiago,

Further, for a fighter like Santiago, it is going to be dramatically easier to train for a guy like Perry, sitting in your arm chair its understandable to be in fear considering get in the cage with a monster like him, but for a truly and here we can say truly, elite guy, its food.

I think this comes down to how Santiago wants the fight to go down, and he is going to want it to go down with him leaving the cage with the tittle shot, standing and banging is the only no go. To be a part of the game plain and this guy, this weapon, is the kind of fighter than can be given a plain to follow, he is a professional, a champion. Its not easy to nail gunner, well he did it.

8/15 on Santiago is a live bet, I think the interesting thing is use of props in this fight like Santiago inside the distance ?

Santiago is of the level that his top end game if put out in the cage vs Perry, it can only mean perry gets folded up.

Perry cant chain punch attack like cody, closing distance, swamping, he loads up with bombs, that's not good enough vs Santiago


Santiago vs Darren Till is an insanely good fight waiting to happen down the road. I have no interest to pick a winner out of that, possible slight edge to till but its slim, I put till above Santiago.

Santiago Ponzinibbio @ 8/15
Mike Perry v Santiago Ponzinibbio
Fight Outright
Stake:
£125.00
Potential Returns:
£191.67

I am more confident Santiago wins, than the spot, Robbie Lawler v Rafael Dos Anjos ITD, but I can see the level pf punishment in the Lawler + RDA being very high and both fighters knowing that any weakness absolutely must be capitalized on.
25mins is a long time, dudes like Carlos conduit drag the fight out, dudes like RDA and lawler.... the engagement is going to be closer and more violent, both are looking to end the fight not dance for 5 rounds and go to the judges. kill or be killed.

Look at the damage Lawler has been involved in... followed by a clean rd1 ko.

my spider sense is telling me I have made a losing bet, I know it's not Santiago so it must be the ITD prop in main.

Seeing RDA going 5 full in Mexico city (alt) vs tony.f, well that only goes to show the quantity that RDA is, also Lawler knows how to fight with caution foot off the gas (cowboy early?).

First time ever but I am backing off the ITD in the main, leaving £75 in play on the ITD just to take the loss but to call it.

This is def, not a fight you can be cert 1million percent (as comes along time to time) that it's going to end ITD.

No more bets for me, thanks for the Santiago tip.

Yes @ 6/4
Rafael Dos Anjos v Robbie Lawler
Will The Fight Go The Distance?
Stake:
£125.00
Potential Returns:£312.50

Lets go Balla

Yeah i'm actually considering playing the over in RDA vs Lawler, o2.5 rounds is kind of tempting at -133ish. Not going to fire yet

I tend to agree with Jim that the Blachowicz fight should be closer to a pickem its back to +150 now but probably still playable

Pretty tempted by the u1.5 rounds in Perry/Ponzinibbio just due to their fighting styles, I feel like one of them is going to knock the other out more often than not. It's hard to say whether Ponz is truly elite yet imo (he won the Gunnar fight off an eye poke) but he's clearly good and Perry has serious KO power. Santiago will turn his lights out if he connects clean though in a way Jouban couldn't.

I'm going to hold off until weigh ins to place my bets, none yet but a few I have my eye on. I originally liked Lawler but i've backed off my pick a bit as RDA has steamed in a little, I sort of lean Lawler but he's been through so many wars even though RDA is getting up there in age too.

So does holly have the power to stop her even if she's gases, seems very very unlikely. Odder things have happened though

Titan FC 47 Risk $380.00

Luis Gomez (+265) vs Sodiq Yusuff $40.00 for $106.00
Gustavo Balart (-165) vs Bruno Mesquita $165.00 for $100.00
Beibit Nazarov (+170) vs Demarques Jackson $65.00 for $110.50
Michael Cora (-110) vs Rico Farrington $110.00 for $100.00

Bet Type: Single. Unsettled

S.Ponzinibbio vs M.Perry
Fight Result (2 way):*
Ponzinibbio, Santiago To Win
Stake: 1,438.00
Potential returns: 2,315.18
Price: 1.61

UFC on FOX 26 Main Event:
170 lbs.: Robbie Lawler vs. Rafael dos Anjos

UFC on FOX 26 Main Card (8 p.m. ET):
145 lbs.: Josh Emmett vs. Ricardo Lamas
170 lbs.: Mike Perry vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
205 lbs.: Misha Cirkunov vs. Glover Teixeira

UFC on FOX 26 Prelims on FS1 (5 p.m. ET):
205 lbs.: Jan Blachowicz vs. Jared Cannonier
205 lbs.: Julian Marquez vs. Darren Stewart
170 lbs.: Galore Bofando vs. Chad Laprise
170 lbs.: Danny Roberts vs. Nordine Taleb
155 lbs.: John Makdessi vs. Abel Trujillo
185 lbs.: Oluwale Bamgbose vs. Alessio Di Chirico

UFC on FOX 26 Prelims on Fight Pass (4:30 p.m. ET):
170 lbs.: Jordan Mein vs. Erick Silva

Ballsy bet Balla, i think we all know Ponzinibio is better i just hope pick him apart from the outside and dont start brawling gl

Im thinking on loading up on Makdessi and Mein, and maybe Emmett by Split Decision if its at a good price

gl balla, I think im giving this card a miss, but would bet Lawler on my own read and Blachowicz probably on Jim's recommendation. Not super confident in any of it including the Perry/Ponzinibbio under I was considering so just going to give this one a miss, get a few hrs sleep and wake up for the main card.

Will it help the result if i sleep through the event

It will be till vs ponz, which i have zero intention of betting.

This is a boy trying to be a man vs a fully developed champion, big gap.

Hedge by perry rd1 ko could be sensible?

You cant just be a one trick pony, as damien.m found out (no kicks etc).


Main event could be a special Scrap! hopefully my screen will still be working so i can wAtch it..