that's why you don't bet overreem @ + 300 or what ever the heck people are talking about lolz

Damn. Another **** night -4.4u. Gonna hit the bad side of 5% overall ROI soon.

thats more like it!!!!

Aldo Round 1 or 2 TKO!!!! Otherwise Max wins!!!

must have felt real nice seeing le banner behind him,


Aldo may win this but there is just no path to 5 full rounds, its Aldo rd1, or its Max.


Edit: Aldo looks already beaten, dejected?

I like the U4.5 as well at 1.57

I give him 2 rounds

Aldo might dec him!!!

Big props on Aldo 20-30x!!!

Aldo up 2 rounds?

Damn I still win but Aldo would of been sky high if it hit!!

Thoughts on Stipe/Ngannou line

Ngannou -140? After that I think he has to be favored.

3-0 + 3.6 units.

it is





























































































































































































what it is.

And in retrospect, I regret not betting much bigger on Cejudo. I just don't see how Pettis ever wins that fight absent a lucky KO, and how common are knockouts at flyweight, really? Of course, hindsight is 20/20 and all that. Still, that was a really high percentage spot.

7.73 units profit on UFC 218, plus big wins on Bellator and Glory, so huge weekend for me. Lotta great fights next weekend to look forward to.

Ended up sleeping through the card and missing it. Managed to dodge spoilers and watch the main card. Ngannou has such beastly power, that would have put anyone out. Holloway looked great, Aldo is clearly declining and may be fade material vs contenders moving forward. IF i'm wrong and Aldo isn't declining, Holloway will hold the belt for 5+ years unless a super-elite wrestler can LnP him. Holloway has precision technique and volume striking. His power is only average, but that's enough when he has every other aspect down with his hands there are so few who throw with both precision and volume the way he does.

No bets for me at all this card if you look at my pre-card comments from over the week it's the rare card where the more spots I bet the better I would have done - went 1/3 with my strong leans (Reem or Reem dec, Cejudo who is just a nightmare matchup for Pettis and Oliveira) but then all of my slight leans won (Alvarez, Herrig, Medeiros and Teymur) - I might have bet Waterson too if her price closed above +200 not sure where it did

So i'd have gone 1-2 if i'd only bet the spots I really liked, 5-2 if I included leans I mentioned in thread and 5-3 probably if I was watching the card live and betting every fight from the tv prelims on.

Main I liked Max to win and like Max more than Aldo so wanted to cheer for him but wasn't going to lay the price, so would have almost certainly been a no play.

Swanson vs Ortega next weekend, we're having a really nice run of nonstop MMA every weekend at the moment. I like Swanson or Swanson by decision at first glance maybe hedged with Ortega r3 or sub, will look at prelims once the lines are out it's one hell of a weak card.

Probably going to save my powder for 219 though for big bets, will be going hard on Khabib. Might play some Cyborg wins in r1 and Holm wins via r4-5-dec depending on prices. Pretty likely to bet Rivera over Lineker if the price is reasonable, probably Rivera by decision if the price is right. I don't know how I missed that Condit is fighting Magny; that might actually be a spot to bet Condit by TKO or Condit ITD, Usman is going to beat the crap out of Meek too but will probably be unbettable.

Rogan was wrong to say Aldo is only 33 (yo) or what ever and he was in his physical prime, that neglected the supposed wisdom or recognition that Aldo has been touched by the new testing rules.

You give some one performance enhancing route for long time, then bounce them back to fresh and steady.. in with a prime Holloway.

Swoop there was money to pick up there just sitting on the side walk, the ITD and under 4.5 were locks.

Loved to see the Stockton slap

bit coin to 100k! (could be).

I agree that Holloway ITD was most likely especially in hindsight. Definitely likely that Aldo was on PEDs pre-USADA but he did perform really well vs Edgar in the 2nd fight. Maybe that's just a bad matchup for Edgar.

If Edgar can't take Holloway down at will i'm not sure how anyone in the division beats him (except if Conor made 145 which I doubt he can anymore) - guys like Cub Swanson are drawing dead

I know he lost to Swanson but i'll watch the hell out of Holloway vs Choi if Choi can earn his way to a title shot and mature a bit as a fighter.

Holloway's active anyway and young so we'll get to see him against every viable contender if he keeps winning.

5 of Holloway's last 11 wins occurred in R3, his style just lends itself towards finishing guys through volume in the mid to later rounds, will def keep that in mind for his next few fights and look to find some nice wins in r3-4 style props.

Wonder why you guys arent more excited about Ngannou. I was expecting a classic balla piece on him but nothing

I was pretty impressed by his performance. I'm definitely considering taking him to KO Stipe when the title shot comes. Will be interesting to see what the odd are like given we haven't seen Ngannou tested, but we've also seen Stipe lose fights (Struve, granted when he was a lot greener) and a close fight against prime JDS and also survive adversity against Reem

Ngannou is even bigger than I remember though and he has an inspirational story and he really wants this. I know Stipe really wants it too but i'm leaning towards Ngannou. Stipe may have to wrestle with him unless he has improved his defense a lot, he can't take a hard shot to the chin from Ngannou.

I've faded Stipe a lot in his UFC career, but finally got on the Stipe bandwagon before his last fight against Overeem but I think I might take Ngannou if he's at + which I assume he should be as Stipe's faced the tougher competition overall and is less of an unknown factor. I'm guessing it opens Stipe -150 Ngannou +125 or something maybe? I hope we get to see it soon we haven't had an active HW champ since JDS. Stipe is a big step up for Ngannou though. He has a better chin than Reem and Arlovski, but lacks the iron chin a prime Hunt/Nelson type guy and i'm pretty sure Stipe can't take a full power shot from Ngannou and not go out cold. He's going to have to beat him with technique or drag the fight into deep waters and hope Ngannou gasses because in r1 I feel like Stipe is going to get dropped a huge percentage of the time and if he does it'll be tough to survive

Stipe is gonna be favored?

I doubt that.

Yeah I'm pretty sure Ngannou is going to be favored, if for no other reason than there's a ton of hype around him. Haven't watched enough tape on Stipe to really have an opinion on how the fight is going to go down, but Ngannou is looking like he's the future of that division.

Ngannou will open -150 and get steamed I feel.