I don't see how Alvarez ever wins. He is declining big time and even though he looked a little better in the Poirier fight, he still looked nowhere near how he looked 5 years ago.

They are going to exchange and he's a lot more likely to get KO'd.

Swoop, what makes you think Eddy has a chance? I mean both a re going to be swinging and Justin is more likely to survive that imo. Unless Eddy catches him with a fluke, I really don't see him winning.

I like the finish by KO prop and ITD.

Idk, remember Eddie is the better wrestler, I mean he doesn't wrestle much but maybe the Conor fight knocked some sense into him when he's up against a better striker. Eddie did catch RDA standing remember he's not drawing dead and when he's the better wrestler I kind of think Gaethje is only like a -130 or -140 fav and I want Gaethje to win.

Poirier looked like a beast against Pettis and Alvarez was competitive with him prior to the stoppage. Yeah, Gaetheje is the fav but Alvarez is still the best fighter he's ever faced, Michael Johnson is his best win and while he's passed every test Alvarez is still a step up for him whereas Alvarez has been fighting guys on this level for a while (granted with mixed results).

If it's a pure brawl then yeah Gaethje is probably -200. If it becomes a tactical MMA fight though anything could happen and it's closer to a coinflip. Alvarez could steal rounds with takedowns and while Conor completely outclassed him standing remember he knocked RDA out all of 3 fights ago, it's not like he's terrible.

I'm going to enjoy the fight but probably won't be betting it.

I don't see it as a heart thing. He beat Edgar because Edgar is worse than him, and he lost to Max because Max is the best in the division.

Aldo is still a great fighter, I think the odds are a bit lopsided towards Holloway.

I think Gaethje should be a bigger favourite, I feel Alvarez is overrated - the only dominant performance he's had in the UFC is against RDA and there's a lot of variance in that fight. He's getting older, he gets rocked pretty much every fight he has, his striking defence is very suspect. Yes he can wrestle but Gaethje can too so I don't think Alvarez will automatically be able to fall back on that. I think Johnson is a more dangerous striker with a better chin than Alvarez and Gaethje passed that test. Gaethje's style, coupled with Eddie's tendency to get rocked I don't see this going 3 rounds. Gaethje by KO the majority of the time.

Ngannou only needs to connect once on Overeem, he's quick and explosive and that will likely happen at least once in 15 minutes. Overeem must know his chin is bad and he can't take a shot so he will probably be very elusive/tentative striking, throwing one shot and getting out asap so he's less likely to KO Ngannou than if he was more confident and not facing someone he knew was fast and had power...so feel Ngannou also wins by KO the majority of the time.

I was wrong about Aldo vs Holloway last time. I don't see Aldo ever winning a decision vs Max, his cardio just can't win enough rounds vs Holloway's output. Also don't buy that Aldo will have good legs to throw his leg kicks this time, he's hardly thrown them in his entire UFC run (compared to WEC) and there's always some excuse. "He's vs a wrestler.", "he injured his foot in the fight", "he injured his leg in training.". I just think his legs are not what they were - people look back on his fight with Faber but that was a different Aldo and that's long gone. Aldo should know he doesn't have the cardio to win a decision vs Holloway so I'm wondering whether his mindset will have gone from "defend the title with as little risk as possible" to "It's very unlikely I'll win a decision here, It's kill or be killed." and just try and KO him in the first couple of rounds and if not, probably get KO'd himself. Fight ends by KO at -120 seems like a good bet to me.

Another day of waiting for TUF finale card

Deanna Bennett vs Melinda Fabian announced, seems like an easy bet on Bennett if she's under -200

Just noticed something interesting looking at Nicco Montano's profile she lost her last fight to Julia Avila who is 3-0 and also has a win over Marion Reneau. Why isn't she in the UFC?

For 218, I probably should have got on

Interesting Torres is steaming hard vs Waterson but I guess not that unexpected as Torres is a decisionator and Waterson will have to finish her to win probably.

I sort of want to bet on Oliveira as a small dog to Felder but i'm terrible at picking Felder fights. I bet on him a bunch, he lost, then I finally fade him and he looks amazing. Passing for now.

Teymur is sort of tempting given how good he looked against Vannata but not super keen to fade Klose when it's -170

Sort of want Felice Herrig at -140 but Cortney Casey beat Aguilar which is really impressive so might pass. Granted Aguilar is probably coming off steroids pre-UFC so it might not be as big as it looks off the surface.

Cooper should beat Magana easily but the price is too steep - Cooper's two most recent losses are to the best two prospects in the division so don't mean much.

Still no plays for 218 yet i've waited this long so I may as well wait for weigh ins now. Leaning Reem Dec/Ngannou r1 TKO, Holloway but price too steep to bet (although I may take Holloway TKO if I can get an ok price or Holloway TKO+DEC prop if it's mispriced once line drops), might pay the -250 or whatever itll be on Cejudo anyway as I just don't see how Pettis beats him it's just a nightmare matchup for Pettis. If the Waterson price gets much higher might have to play it as an odds play even though I expect Torres dec. Herrig is tempting but i'll need to rewatch some Casey tape. Oliveira is tempting if price rises much further or maybe an Oliveira sub prop is a better idea. Medeiros is kind of tempting as a dog as I think Fake Cowboy is overrated, although he's better than I thought he was. Teymur is tempting. Avlarez tempting sort of even though I want Gaethje to win. Going to wait for weigh ins at this point and see how everyone looks. Even though he's a big fav I think Cejudo is my favourite spot of the 218 card so far.

Good post, like this analysis. I actually took Eddie Alvarez small just on the theory that it’s going to be a brawl and nobody is tougher / hits harder / is more of a brawler in that division than Alvarez, but you’re right that he seemingly gets rocked every fight and has a ton of mileage. Gaethje is pretty easy to hit though and he likes to stand in front of people, which is dangerous. On the other hand he’s younger and that counts for a lot. Should be a great fight.

Alvarez stating that he plans to brawl and not think so much. Alvarez also not reliable to stick to a game plan. He got a lucky punch on RDA, and that's what he has here as well, a punchers chance. I have no problem hedging with a KO for Alvarez but he's a lot less likely to get that finish.

He's not terrible but he's declined, he was much more versatile before but the wars have caught up with him, he is in denial and still thinks he's that guy from the past.

Well, I do. Simply watch Aldo's previous fights and see how ferocious and killer that guy can be. He wasn't as good as the previous Aldo. It's heart, motivation, he's toying with retirement.

According to you he's simply gone of a cliff, no longer able to complete, Max is NOT that good imo, that these other factors didn't play some kind of role.

I would agree that Also is declining but again he's only 30 and he dominated that devision for 10 years. It would be slightly disingenuous to say that his heart is still in it after his loss to Conor.

That isn't a known quantity. Gaethje was a wrestler first and is quite decorated. He just chooses to use it for defense only.

Not sure how "Aldo is still a great fighter" = "gone of a cliff, no longer able to complete" but I agree Aldo isn't the killer he used to be.

Backing off my Alvarez lean if he plans to brawl, that probably won't go well for him.

We should find out the rest of the TUF finale card today, still no bets for 218 hoping to get some nice openers once we know the rest of the TUF matchups

Hoping to get Nicco Montano as a dog to Sijara Eubanks. Sijara is probably stronger and more powerful but she has a lot of defensive liabilities and Nicco is a grinder with a lot of heart. I think Nicco wins a close 29-28 a lot and i'm thinking she'll open as a small dog. If Sijara by TKO is really long like +1000 or more ill consider it too. If Montano decision's a pile better than ML i'll take that.

If Rachel Ostovich-Berdon is less than -200 ill take her vs Karine Gevorgyan

If Deanna Bennett is less than -275 or so vs Melinda Fabian i'll take her

No leans on Beck/Dobson as we didnt see enough of them on the show

Pretty lol that the 12 seed vs the 14 seed is the final, the UFC seeders did not do well.

So in addition to Soto and Spicely i'm hoping to get Montano as a small dog and Bennett and Ostovich-Berdon assuming they're not unbettable favourites

I assume the cards not done at 9 fights and the rest of the WFW fights will be announced today i'll be surprised if Roxy doesn't get a fight and Montana if they're healthy. Stevenson and Whitmire probably get fights too. I'd expect those four to fight each other in some combination to round the card out at 11 fights

For some reason the graphic isn't showing Murphy vs the girl who wasn't on the TUF season and the only one from the show missing is Maia Stevenson.

Hopefully we get the rest of the lines soon. Interested in Montana as well if she's not an unbettable fav. Maybe Honchak at evens or better although unless the lines amazing I want Roxy to win so will leave it.

I just remembered the finale is for the belt so I favour Nicco Montano more over 5 rounds even though Sijara Eubanks cardio seemed fine vs Roxy, but Roxy really lacks physical gifts in MMA and Montano while not spectacular on that front is better and should make Eubanks work harder. I think Eubanks is more likely to finish but Montano is a pretty decent fav if it goes the distance

Jose Aldo vs Max Holloway
(Will fight go the distance)
No @ -162.50
Stake £260
Stake £99
(separate bets)

Jose Aldo vs Max Holloway
(Will fight go the distance)
No @ -162.50
Stake £437.50

Single: No @ 8/15
1 line at £101 per line
Total stake for this bet: £101
Potential returns: £155

Single: Under (4.5) @ 4/6
1 line at £52 per line
Total stake for this bet: £52
Potential returns: £88

No fight to go the distance
4/7
Stake £150,
returns £235

Fight Result. Method (5 way):
Holloway, Max To Win. KO, TKO, Disqualification or
@ +1
Stake £220,
returns £440

considering the fact Aldo may "be better", neglects the same may also be true on the other side of the fence to,

Aldo tires, he also slows down when caught, gets discombobulated then this is maxed out... or taken advantage of.

Max is the wrong dude to be fighting for Aldo, over 3rds would be a lot lot better for him here, then he could come with a game plain

What does he do here to win vs a guy with more reach and fresher on top of the world.

Look for more leg kicks from Aldo, fine.. look for checking from max and counters.

I like the ITD here quite a bit, reduced the straight up (5 way) on Max because this fight could end in the 1st rd, he has that as a path to victory only right?

Still tempted to get on Charles Oliveira even though he's shortened a bit but i'll wait for now. I def should have taken the +135 when I could get it in hidnsight and still tempted to get on in the +110 to +115 range as this fight seems like a pickem to me.

Apparently the TUF lines come out tomorrow on Pinnacle I emailed to ask so hoping some of the sides I like open at decent prices.

Magana is pretty terrible but Cooper is now -5xx that seems a bit insane for lower-mid level WMMA

I'm also still surprised Aldo is +250 or more, he's still a great fighter even if Holloway is younger, hungrier and matches up well with him.

None of the openers looking great for TUF Finale, might just be on Soto and Spicely, as long as at least 1/2 wins will profit for the card

Oliveira in to being a small fav vs Felder now which is about where I figured the line should be so will prob leave it for now I guess unless I can find a nice Oliveira sub prop once lines out

Eubanks hospitalised during weight cut, Roxy vs Nicco for the title now. Pretty confident Nicco wins it as much as I love Roxy.

Adding a little more,
Fight Result. Method (5 way):*
Holloway, Max To Win. KO, TKO
Stake £200 @ 9/10,
Potential returns: £380.00

Nicco Montano is -161 on one of my locals, all my funds there in play on upcoming Rugby 7s so after that grades i'm going to get on Nicco assuming line doesn't move past -170ish. I think she's about a -200 fav vs Roxy. That plus Soto and Spicely as dogs plus Montana/Ostovich/Bennett prices are all pretty unbettable even though I expect all 3 to win for the TUF Finale card. Will decide on 218 bets after weigh ins. In hindsight I wish i'd taken Oliveira and Cejudo lines earlier but happy to wait for now. Nothing else on 118 I like that much and at current prices it's all a bit meh.

edit: Got on Montano -161, slightly smaller than id have liked but itll do. Soto is my biggest bet then Spicely then Montano, i'd prefer Montano 2nd and Spicely the smallest but happy with what I have. That should do me for tomorrow I think.

UFC 218 PPV Event Detail:

Date: 2 December 2017

Time: Early Prelims: 6:15 PM ET / 3:15 PM PT

Prelims: 8 PM ET / 5 PM PT

Main Card: 10 PM ET / 7 PM PT

Venue: Little Caesars Arena Detroit, Michigan

UFC 218 PPV Full Fight Card:
Main Card
Weight class
Featherweight Max Holloway (c) vs. José Aldo
Heavyweight Alistair Overeem vs. Francis Ngannou
Flyweight Henry Cejudo vs. Sergio Pettis
Lightweight Eddie Alvarez vs. Justin Gaethje
Women’s Strawweight Tecia Torres vs. Michelle Waterson
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)
Lightweight Charles Oliveira vs. Paul Felder
Welterweight Alex Oliveira vs. Yancy Medeiros
Lightweight David Teymur vs. Drakkar Klose
Women’s Strawweight Felice Herrig vs. Cortney Casey
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Welterweight Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Sabah Homasi
Light Heavyweight Jeremy Kimball vs. Dominick Reyes
Heavyweight Justin Willis vs. Allen Crowder
Women’s Strawweight Amanda Cooper vs. Angela Magaña

Everyone made weight for UFC 218.
Aldo had a hard time though.

We need same day weigh ins before someone dies. 2 misses including a hospitalization for TUF Finale

Just on Soto, Montano and Spicely for tomorrow's card. GL all!

Same day's are just as bad. One fc style weight cutting is what needs to be implemented