Ew, I originally liked Li straight up too but decided the decision prop was more value.

Hopefully Bisping/Gastelum goes the distance. Up a tiny amount for the card still but sends me back closer to even

Hopefully both guys chins hold up and we can go the distance for a decent win for the card. let's go Bisping 48-47 imo

Ew I had a sinking feeling right before the main started. Didn't end up getting off but I almost wanted to

Small loss for the card, probably 2 units and change

Guess that's it for Bisping. Give him an easy fight in England and call it a career

Disappointing finish to the card after a good start

Hope everyone wakes up to good results since i'm pretty much here by myself today on Pacific time

Great card for me went 3-0.
With Mazany, Guan and Gastelum coming through.

Felt like Bisping should have called it a day after the GSP fight. A rematch with Vitor in Manchester would be a good way to end his career and winnable for him at this point.

Nice work on the 3-0 card, pretty sure I went 3-4 for fights I made/lost money on for a net loss of about two bets

I think someone with no KO power is a better retirement fight for him. Let me think, a wrestler who isn't that good but has an ok rank and not much power. His next fight should be his retirement fight unless he wants to fight as a gatekeeper to the top 20 or whatever and he's above that would be better off commentating/analyst or being a brand ambassador for the UFC in the UK.

Elias Theodorou would be perfect actually. Mostly stands, has no power. Bisping could have a back and forth standup fight with him and rankings wise it's not too outlandish as Bisping's coming off 2 losses and Theodoru just beat Dan Kelly. That or Vitor I guess but that's risky even though Vitor only has 2 minutes in him without TRT. Anything else is too risky and Bisping deserves to go out on a win in front of his home crowd.

The most wonderful things you will ever see or do will not be in this life time but ahead, so be ready, stable with peace and love in your heart!


Wang result is Super for the thread!


Hope its ok to play a kung-fu classic?

1-0 +5.5 units. Gastelum is a beast!

Also, do you guys have any thoughts on Holly Holm at +260 versus Cyborg? Cyborg can't possibly be THAT good, can she? I haven't seen much of her, but Holly is no joke.

It's tough to gauge where Cyborg is at because she hasn't fought elite competition. She ran through so many straight fights. I thought her last fight she didn't look invincible, and that was against a short notice Evinger.

It seems like a fight that should stay standing, and Holly should be the better kickboxer. I'd like Holm more if she wasn't coming off a so-so win and 3 losses though

I think Holly will have an advantage in the cardio department over 5 rounds. She's also probably just as strong as Cyborg, I'm looking forward to this fight, I think a lot of people are writing Holly off, but I do think she has a chance to beat Cyborg, she might even finish her later on, just because I think Cyborg gasses in the later rounds, especially if she comes out trying to finish Holly early.

Agree, I think Jacksonwink camp will come up with a solid game plan, lots of lateral movement, avoid the pocket just move around a lot, let cyborg chase and maybe get a bit reckless. Holly is a great counter puncher, she is strong and big indeed but just lacks the power to her punch.

Yeah Holly's not 1 for getting tied up, we have seen that on multiple occasions, she's strong in the clinch too. Holly should indeed be moving in and out a lot, much like a boxer does, she was a boxer, she did great vs both Miesha and Ronda.

We'll see, obviously Cyborg favorite but I wouldnt count Holly out too easily. I mean even on points, I can see Holly winning, or finishing her late. I have this feeling Cyborg is going to get reckless, once she realises that Holly is not just going to stand and bang with.

Obviously just a feeling but I will def be playing the R4,5 finish for Holly. As I really think if Holly can weather the storm of the first 2 rounds then she could easily find that finish.

That would be my gameplan for Holly anyways!

Odds went out on pinnacle few hours ago for ngannou -187 vs overeem +165

wow .... i was expecting the opposite tbh. I like ngannou and have bet on him in all his UFC's fights but he hasn't fought anyone that is in the top 10 right now ( arlovski was #8 at the time of their fight ).

On the other way all his wins were with a finish, and has never been in any kind of trouble during those fights.

When Reem fought Miocic for the belt last year he closed at the +125 and now he's +165 vs ngannou.

For the fight i expect either an early KO by ngannou or reem to slow down ngannou with leg kicks early and grind a 3rnd decision.

I tought I was gonna do a big bet with my head on Ngannou, but I will ended doing a smaller one with my

-jpp

Allistair has a glass jaw and Ngannou hits like a truck.

Think the odds are about right with Overeem and Ngannou.

Overeem is good at baiting guys in and I could see him catching Ngannou early but obviously Ngannou cracks harder then anyone and Reems chin isn't the best.

At first glance I like the look of Brett Johns at 1.5. Reminds me a bit of prime Jon Fitch in that he can just stick on guys and grind them out. Not watched Soto's last few fights though so not jumping on it yet.

Best value of the entire weekend coming up is Joe Soto at +170 over Brett Johns. Joe's the most accomplished and experienced opponent that Johns will have faced yet with good boxing, wrestling and submissions. Johns has mostly squeaked out decisions vs lesser opponents in the UFC so far despite his undefeated record. 3u on that.

Sean O'Malley the young flashy striker and stoner in his off time that Dana was all excited about on DWTNCS vs Terrion Ware: Ware seems hand picked to give O'Malley a striking battle on the feet. I'm expecting a knockout looking at O'Malley's record even though Ware hasn't been knocked out himself yet. As his competition level increases going forward, he may not be able to finish everyone of course, but I'll take a gamble this time and at this price on the under 2½ at +145 in this, his first UFC bout.

Thanks Jim - if I remember correctly Soto went several rounds with TJ and even may have won a round. Will look into it but that line does look good on the surface

I agree re: Ngannou via KTFO or Reem decision being the most likely spots - I guess Reem could finish Ngannou in r2-3 if he slows down if he's unable to land on Reem but I expect Ngannou to hulk smash him in r1 if he can find his chin even once

We haven't really seen Ngannou been tested yet, he hasn't really faced any threats at all, all his wins he's never been in trouble, I have no idea how he deals with adversity. With that being said, I have this feeling that he is a very special individual. Mcgregor special, Jon Jones level special. I really see him go undefeated and win the belt all this at HW, were 1 punch can literally change the outcome of a fight, more so than other weight classes.

This guy is hungry, trust me on that. He came from nothing, sure lots of people come from nothing but this guy from Africa, over to France and homeless, broke and has to make it happen. Africans don't have an easy ride in Europe, I think overall, they have to have alligator skin imo. Not right obv, but the ones who embrace the struggle and conquer, take the world, they work 1000% harder than the rest, imo.

He has shown to me that he isn't going to fold to pressure, in several of his fights, the Arlovski and Hamilton fight, he was green and they were somewhat accomplished, you have to take that into consideration, the man shows up and he believes he's going to win and it showed in his fights, he smashed them convincingly, too easy, if you ask me.

All of this and he hasn't even been training MMA that long, if I remember correctly. But it's the character of the man that has me convinced he's special. He's humble, but confident, not arrogant but has self-belief, he has the right balance.

I could of easily written similar about other fighters, including the Reem, and Alistair does fit that discription too, but he is getting much older now, he was exceptional several years ago too, but you are going to have a hard time fighting anybody at HW with a chin like he has. Literally a jab, turns his lights out, and while he has developed a style that protects his chin as much as possible, it also hinders him to attack proficiently imo. That defensive run away style,is not a great style, I don't think he has any other way of fighting, so he has to make it work, he can't stand and trade with anyone anymore, so he has to work with what he's got.

I considered the ground game of Reem, the clinch, him up against the cage grinding on Ngannou, looking to land knees and in the pocket. All these aspects, I just don't see it, Ngannou is just too strong a guy. Sure there's a chance he catches Ngannou in the clinch with a knee, he does that to a lot of guys, Ngannou's a tall dude though, he's very very strong, just look at how he man handled Hamilton and reversed on the ground with that armbar for example.

Reem can catch him, but it won't be because he's dominating Francis, it'll be a fluke, or more like a mental error by Francis, perhaps inexperience will show, but looking at his past fights, I tihnk he's ready, I don't think he's going to choke it.

I was hoping the line would be closer to a pickem, Reem's experience and Ngannou's lack of experience and lack fighting top 5 guys, you'd think Reem would be the favorite, or closer to a pickem.

Always difficult to pick a winner in MMA, anything can happen but I feel Ngannou will win this. I just don't see anybody with the skill level to beat this guy, you'd have to have a significant edge to make up for his strength, youth and athleticism, I just don't see anybody at HW having that with the exception of Cain perhaps. I think Cain might be the only guy that can hang with Ngannou.

Big risk for Ngonnou (or however tf you spell it) is if he doesn't finish him early he could gas. Guys that are built like that tend to gas out, the guys that can go 5 rounds full speed are built like Bisping or Diaz (i.e. more of a swimmer's body.)

That having been said, I think he's gonna smash Allistair. Allistair's 37 and has a lot of mileage. On paper this is not a good matchup for him.

Not sure this is correct but can we assume that not many HW's can go 5 rounds anyways?

Cain Valesquez and Fabricio Werdum both probably could, but yeah I think your overall point is right.

I agree with you on Ngonnou, only reason I mention it is because I re-watched his fight against Curtis Blades and he seemed to be visibly slowing down by the end of round 2. Of course, this is only a 3 round fight so might not be that big of a risk.

Anyone thinking Aldo could get that belt back? I mean he's only 30 and now that he's fought Max, he might feel more confident/comfortable, I feel he somewhat got effected by his loss to Conor, he did bounce back and beat Edgar, thats what champions do but he seemed his heart was not really in it anymore, talking about retiring/football etc. He then went on to lose to Max.

He had some early success, winning 1 perhaps 2 rounds, I think he might be done sulking about his loss and be back to his winning ways, like a champion!

Beating Max is going to be tough, the guy is hungry and he took everything Aldo threw at him, but the price is pretty good to bet Aldo. Just not sure Aldo can go 5 rounds anymore, and looking at the 1st fight, knocking Max out seems also a little implausible but not necessary improbable.

Aldo's most likely path to Victory?? Be more patient, like he fought Edgar? Kick this time around, chop at Max's legs??

Still not sure Aldo has his heart in it anymore.

Thoughts?

I'll check that fight out, thanks.

Managed to get on Soto at +186 at one of my locals

Considering Spicely +175 as well, seems like more of a coinflip but haven't fired yet so only on Soto so far.

Will be interesting to see what the rest of the card is but i've watched this whole TUF season so I think i'll have a good grasp on who's going to win some undercard fights as i'm guessing most of the season will get on the card. Nicco Montano seems like a solid grinder, it's hard to predict what'll happen with Roxy vs Eubanks for the other final spot, will depend if Roxy gets her down I guess. I'll almost definitely bet some undercard fights though once they're announced, I think the last ep is a day or two away and the rest of the card announced then

Added Spicely +171 as the line's started moving and I was really close to making the bet earlier today so decided to get on before it moves more.

Cachoiera vs Murphy added to the card, kind of surprised that Murphy isn't fighting anyone from the house given she had issues with a few of them (although she can't fight Eddie Alvarez I guess which was the real rivalry)

I hope Roxy wins although I really like Nicco Montano too, if either of them win i'll be happy. Both of them and Sijara are probably just keeping the belt warm for Valentina Shevchenko, but it would be cool to see Roxy or Nicco get the belt.

Kind of want to fade Murphy but I know nothing about her opponent so just going to leave it alone for now.

Fairly big bets on both Spicely and Soto as I think both are a lot closer to pickem fights and got nice prices on both compared to the sharp books current lines. My card so far is now

Soto +186
Spicely +171

I'm sure i'll add a few more too tomrrow once we have the finale matchups announced and lines drop for him.

I totally forgot that we have 218 this weekend as well I thought that was next week. 2 cards this weekend is nice. Can still get Ngannou at arb price vs Pinnacle but i'm not super keen to fade the Reem at -210 even if I think Ngannou hulk smashes him in r1 most of the time. Alvarez could be a bet against Gaethje, but leaving it for now too especially as I like Gatheje more and want him to win. I do think +162 is reasonable though. Cejudo is kind of tempting even at -220ish I just don't see how Pettis keeps it standing for 2/3 rounds. To be honest i'm not even sure he can badly outstrike Cejudo let alone when the takedown is an option.

I fully expect Holloway to beat Aldo but not willing to fade Aldo at the current line.