Cub Swanson
last four fights win by the distance, decision win. and then before that two loses to Submission (guillotine choke) Holloway, and then another 5th round Submission (neck crank) vs edgar.

Going back before that looking for a "convincing win", you have to find Dennis Siver TKO (punches) in the 3rd round 8 fights back in July 6, 2013


Then take a look at Brian Ortega and its a whole other story.

His last four fights have been ended by, Submission (guillotine choke),
KO (knee), a Submission (triangle choke), TKO (punches), by force on people like, Thiago Tavares, Diego Brandão, Clay Guida, Renato Moicano.

Also as a whole, 12 for 12 (no loses) with eight finishes, again four of which in the last four fights. So the guy is cooking with gas atm no?

This is just a surface scan the fight and looking at black and white with no tape but like yeah.... those holes your talking about? they better be big ones.


Just off the top of my hat from memory about Brian because we are here to share what we think pre event to figure out the best bets we can make,

The guy is slippery, (Black belt in Gracie Jiu-Jitsu -active 2010–present)
Lke he is hard to nail hard, that is going against what you are saying? and its appreciated the heads up, but my take on him "from memory", is that he is elusive as ***, like I was watching one of his fights and looking out for him to get smashed but it just never happened,

Also he is rugged hard-core, he has the look, he is not going to get worn down and sub'ed that is just not going to happen. He loses by KO only imo.

Interesting fight,
I'm interested to see how Brian Ortega performs.

This is no Club walk over and he is going to have his hands full 130%


Has any one else got any thoughts about Cub Swanson v Brian Artega?

is it just me or is this the most fights listed in one date all time?

Cub Swanson is really good. From what little tape I’ve seen of Ortega he’s very impressive. I don’t think I’ll bet it but I’m definitely looking forward to it as a fan.

I like both Cub and Brian but Cub has fought way better opposition and only lost to very good fighters, yes Brian is undefeated but he hasn't faced a guy as good as Cub. At close to a pick em I really favor Cub to win. But I see your argument regarding Ortega too, I just don't see him beating Cub, not yet anyway.

He is still improving but like I said he has holes in his game, he gets hit a ton, I feel Cub will be too fast, too dynamic, too elusive for Ortega.

Edit, I don't think he is that elusive (Ortega), his last fight for example, he was losing until he got the sub, he was also just getting hit in the face constantly.

Cubs lost by submission 4 out 5 times, Brian is a BJJ black belt and has great submissions, I'd hedge with a sub. His losses are all to legit champs top 3 guys though, so while I do feel Brian has a legit chance, I just don't see it happening just yet. You guys feel Cub is declining at all?

Balla have you watched all of Ortega's fights? He was on his way to losing a decision in a few of them before a r3 finish. He's a great finisher but Cub has an amazing chin as we saw in the Choi fight and never gives up.

I'm actually pretty low on Cub compared to most in that I don't think he's anything close to a legit contender for the belt, but that said I think he's a moderate favourite against Ortega, especially since this is his last chance to get a title shot and he will probably get one with a win here

I expect to bet Swanson as a small fav vs Ortega. Ortega's biggest advantage is he's younger and should be improving but from memory he was not winning any of his last 4 fights in dominant fashion prior to r3 finishes and he was at least 19-19 if not 18-20 in all of them (i'd need to rewatch or check the sherdog play by plays which you should do if you plan to bet Ortega here and ill likely do closer to the card)

Pretty absurd he has 4 third round finishes in a row. I'm leaning Swanson though. I remember describing Ortega as the least impressive prospect who is unbeaten with a 5 fight finishing streak in the UFC i've ever seen. He's got killer instinct and he's clearly good but Cub is hard to finish and is a step up from his next best win (all of his last 4 wins are fighters in the 11-25 type range, Cub is more like a top 5ish barely type guy)

I had and still have Choi as a better prospect than Ortega and took Choi over Swanson and Swanson beat him in a FOTY.

LOok at who Cub has lost to since 2007. Holloway, Champ. Edgar, #1 contender. Lamas, top 5 contender at the time. Mendes, top 5 contender at the time who was also on roids. Aldo, champ at the time. 2007, Pulver, before he fell off a cliff and when Cub was young. He's proven he can't beat the absolute elite of the division but I think Ortega is much closer in skill to guys he has beaten - Guida (Ortega vs Guida was a close fight til the finish), Oliveira, Poirier, Stephens, Choi, these are legit names. Cub wins the fights hes supposed to win and loses the fights hes suppsoed to lose. Unless he's fallen off a cliff (and he will soon as he's 34) he's definitely a fav here. He's shown no signs of falling off the cliff though, he dominated Artem like he's supposed to, turned back a prospect in Choi etc

If Ortega wins it'll almost certainly be by submission, Cub does not get knocked out generally speaking unless his chin's shattered overnight which it shouldnt have. Elite fighters can submit him, but i'm not sure Ortega can get him down easily.

Not a fight i'll go big on, but i'll def play Swanson, and maybe a small hedge on Ortega sub.

If I have to pick an exact result it's Cub via clear but competitive decision in a fight that's mostly contested standing.

it's crazy how Kevin still has trouble making 185, seems like its just a discipline and lifestyle thing, He is so small compared to Bisping and other big MW's like Weidman and Rockhold, IMO he even is a small WW, at WW he had more bodyfat than most others.

Same goes for Hendricks.

Hendricks is lazy and unmotivated since USADA came in, I think he'd been juicing his whole run and just doesn't want to put the work in now that things are hard without steroids. He's a lazy, cheating ******* in my eyes (I know he never tested positive but seriously, there is no chance that pre-USADA Hendricks wasn't roiding just look at his change in physique and drop off in general after - he's one of those guys like Erick Silva that was def roiding with hindsight but never got caught afaik)

I don't get it with Gastelum there is no way he should be at 185, he's just lazy or bad at cutting weight. That said good for him if he wants to fight at his natural weight class without cutting, but he's tiny for MW.

Looks like only Rolando Dy missed weight this card, guess he needs a win to avoid getting cut. I think he performed pretty well last time out for a not really UFC level guy.

Pretty happy with just Abdurakhimov and Guan for this card with a small bet on Bisping as a dog since we know he'll have the cardio and Gastelum's a question mark there in the championship rounds, I expect Gastelum to finish him in r2-3 a lot, but if he doesn't there's a good chance Bisping wins a 48-47 or could even finish him late if he gasses. I think Gastelum is -200ish so pretty happy with my Bisping +245.

I may end up making small sweat bets if I watch the card live too, will check out weigh ins and maybe make one or two more if anyone looks particularly good or bad

Outside of the main event you could easily go up to a casual fan and say 'this is a WSOF/Rizin card' and they'd say 'yep looks about right' and not recognise that anyone else on the card is a current UFC fighter. Hope it delivers some fun fights but I wouldn't be that surprised if no one on this card other than Gastelum and Li are in the UFC in a couple years time and maybe Guan if he lives up to the hype.

Ben Askren-Shinya Aoki fight

Askren was -1565 (sportbet) and -1700 (5dimes)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I52Ku7m0EUc

It's so hard to care about Ben Askren crushing cans in Asia.

I watched the fight, that went about as expected. I'm surprised he was that big a fav though even though obviously he's a terrible matchup for a past his prime and smaller Aoki.

Kind of surprised Aoki's only 34 it feels like he's a million in fight years

I guess Askren can crush cans and be the champ of One FC until he gets too old and we can continue to not care unless he fights in the UFC or Bellator or One FC manage to sign an actual top 15 LW to face him. I guess he beat Douglas Lima once upon a time but it's impossible to know how good he is other than 'better than all of the non-UFC level fighters'

Would be cool to see him against some of the legit contenders at 170 while he's in his prime as he's probably the only top 15 guy at 170 outside the UFC/Bellator but I think that ship has sailed and he'll crush cans in Asia until he's old.

Looks like tomorrow's card is on at a convenient time in Australia which is nice, not on PPV so we don't have to deal with 7am cards in our part of the world.

Bisping +250 (1u)
Bisping/Gastelum under 2.5 -110 (5u)
Leech NSC -292 (2u)
Caceres -150 (3u)
Caceres/Wang u2.5 +150 (3u)
Not Nash itd -120 (4u)
Moraes +400 (3u)
Curran +130 (1u)

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This was his retirement fight. I tend to believe him. We'll see.

He could be the next Philip Miller (although Miller actually fought in the UFC a couple times and also beat Jake Shields).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillip_Miller

Backed Guan at 2.4 due to reading a few long term profitable mma bettors like him. Also a few guys on here seem to be high on him.

Looking at backing Mazany and Abdurakhimov but waiting to see if I get at least close to Pinnacle odds with Matchbook or a European bookie,

His ground game and tdd is pretty horrific. On the feet he is a sniper however has pretty low output.

Caceres has solid grappling. If the fight ends up there he will dominate. On the feet he has become quite the striker and throws a high output.

Cacares has the ability to finish here and if the fight goes to Dec think his output wins him the fight. Guan Wang really has to finish the fight to win this imo.

Think the KO line is the better bet if betting on Wang.

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UFN 122 Risk $3178.25

Kelvin Gastelum wins by TKO/KO (+115) $80.00 for $92.00
Kelvin Gastelum wins inside distance (-139) $139.00 for $100.00
Kelvin Gastelum wins in round 2 (+450) $25.00 for $112.50
Kelvin Gastelum/Michael Bisping Under 2½ (-115) $115.00 for $100.00

Zak Ottow (+175) vs Li Jingliang $200.00 for $350.00
Zak Ottow +3½ points (-145) $145.00 for $100.00
Zak Ottow/Li Jingliang Over 2½ (-200) $120.00 for $60.00
Zak Ottow wins by 3 round decision (+250) $40.00 for $100.00

Wang Guan (+130) vs Alex Caceres $100.00 for $130.00
Wang Guan/Alex Caceres Under 2½ (+157) $100.00 for $157.00
Alex Caceres wins by submission (+601) $20.00 for $120.20

Muslim Salikhov (-215) vs Alex Garcia $215.00 for $100.00
Muslim Salikhov/Alex Garcia Over 1½ (-120) $90.00 for $75.00

Zabit Magomedsharipov wins inside distance (+104) vs Sheymon Moraes $30.00 for $31.20

Bobby Nash wins by TKO/KO (+145) vs Kenan Song $30.00 for $43.50

Xiaonan Yan (-156) vs Kailin Curran $156.00 for $100.00
Xiaonan Yan (-150) vs Kailin Curran $150.00 for $100.00
Xiaonan Yan wins inside distance (+350) $35.00 for $122.50

Yadong Song (-140) vs Bharat Khandare $140.00 for $100.00
Yadong Song/Bharat Khandare Under 2½ (-107) $80.25 for $75.00

Shamil Abdurakhimov (-140) vs Chase Sherman $140.00 for $100.00
Chase Sherman scorecards = no action (-105) $105.00 for $100.00

Gina Mazany (-115) vs Yanan Wu $115.00 for $100.00
Gina Mazany (-145) vs Yanan Wu $145.00 for $100.00
Gina Mazany/Yanan Wu Under 2½ (+115) $100.00 for $115.00

Rolando Dy (-160) vs Wuliji Buren $160.00 for $100.00
Rolando Dy wins by TKO/KO (+410) $25.00 for $102.50

Cyril Asker/Hu Yaozong starts round 2 (+117) $40.00 for $46.80

Fights to go distance under 5½ (-120) $48.00 for $40.00
Fights to go distance under 4½ (+221) $30.00 for $66.30
Fights to go distance under 3½ (+576) $15.00 for $86.40
Fights to go distance under 2½ (+1799) $10.00 for $179.90
Fights to go distance under 1½ (+8425) $5.00 for $421.25

Wang Guan/Alex Caceres FOTN award winner (+500) $15.00 for $75.00
Zabit Magomedsharipov/Sheymon Moraes FOTN award winner (+500) $15.00 for $75.00

Parlay:
Bobby Nash (-320) vs Kenan Song+ Kelvin Gastelum (-275) vs Michael Bisping $200.00 for $157.95

Added a few more bets

I really like Bisping/Gastelum to go the distance at +240, made a pretty big bet there (a lot bigger than my Bisping straight up bet)

Added Li dec at +210 and either guy dec at -139 for Li/Ottow

Added a small Guan KO play at +500 to go with my straight up

Can't seem to find anywhere to get an Abdurakhimov dec prop but I like that too but I think straight up's probably better as it's not a super appealing price and they're HWs so anything can happen if if I think Abdurakhimov mostly lays on him for 3 rounds assuming he doesn't get caught coming in.

Also took some Bisping/Gastelum starts r3 at -125.

Is it already started? my fightpass might have an issue, content is not showing.

I know nothing about the fighters but adding Song -137 vs Khandare and Wu -125 vs Mazany just because the prices on my locals seem solid vs Pinny and it gives me a sweat. Please be right market?

Fights start in 10m apparently.

yeah thanks, started 1 hour later than I thought, I actually enjoy fights at this time.
Just going to place some small bets as the fight progress, nothing major.

Think I might go Bisping by decision and the over 2.5 rounds.

Gl to all.

Go Yaozong I guess? Random Chinese HW probably is a can but we don't know for sure yet, whereas we know Asker is lower UFC level. More Asian prospects would be cool

No bet on the first one.

UFC Shanghai: Bisping vs Gastelum Bets, Picks, Predictions on Half The Battle

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8RGuM6UL8E&t=1909s
(you need to right click the link, cant get it embedded at 1909seconds some reason)
Alex Caceres vs Wang Guan (31:49)

Interesting insight.....
appreciate the padding out with further data / insight .


Its great people are betting Alex here, it clears up the texture of the thread :-)->-<

Adding a little more on Wang,

32 years old, fought Russians, fought Brazilians, mature..., powerful, big boy up at 145, lee roy gases 1.5 rds, calling out lee roy by sub is insanity.

Wang is a 2 or 3 unit bet and possible 1 unit play by finish / KO

Ask your self this one question?

Just what is Alex going to be doing half way through round 2... what is going to be the fight dynamic?


Alex by fluke 1st sub is the hope? and by KO 2nd or 3rd round Wang?
Have you seen how strong Wang is, and as pointed out he is not green 22 year old, he has been there got the tee-shirt all the mat.

I don't think this fight can go the distance, because of Alex movement there will be a little hunting going on.

I actually took Bisping dec at +550 then ended up deciding to go straight up dec +240 instead (added some Gastelum dec to balance it out + the straight up dec bet). I want Bisping to win as I have a Bisping bet, but my fight starts r3/fight goes distance props are way bigger. Bisping dec would be perfect but I win on a Gastelum dec too now, and only lose small if it starts r3

Goodnight Chinese random dude we've never heard of

I know who Dy is at least for this next fight so i'll cheer for him. No bets again though.

Lets go Mazany!
Closing line went completely against me lets hope she's not injured or something.

Tiny bet on Yanan Wu here just because of the steam I can't recall seeing either of them ever fight, but it's my smallest bet of the card so no big deal. Seems close halfway thru r1

Seems like Mazany was def the fav here and line move was wrong based on what weve seen so far. It's competitive but Mazany clearly winning