Whew I had it for Matthews narrowly but knew it could go either way

He's such a powerful offensive grappler but he makes so many mistakes he still has potential but he needs to move to the us and train with real camp

No need when u got 2 judges to bring your potential. Sick decision. Should have been 30-26 to perhaps 29-28 all for the Serbian fighter. Even Jake's Dad knew his kid needed the finish. Disgraceful judging.

Wtf no at 30-26 lol 29-28 either way is the only acceptable scorecard imo velikovic won the fight as a whole but Matthews won r1 clearly imo even though it was a close round and round 3 was close but Matthews had a better sub attempt and they had a similar amount if top control obviously r2 was dominant but probably not a 10-8 and r1 and 3 were close but I had it coming down to a super close r3 and I think Matthews edged it under 10 point although I'd have to rewatch. Velikovic clearly won under pride rules. I think Matthews beat Holbrook and lost an unlucky decision so I don't mind if he gets a lucky one

A judge scoring brown vs camacho for brown is miles worse than either judge scoring this one for either fighter imo you couldn't complain either way r1 and 3 were close so the fight can go either way. Brown lost rounds 2 and 3 badly and still get it on one card somehow

meh... Matthews got 1 TD with like 5 attempts in rd1 and ate a lot of elbows trying for the TD. On the ground he did nothing. Both guys could have done better work but both are still improving.

The truth came with the commentators never hinting that Matthews had a chance come decision. The camera only zoomed in on the Serbian prior to it being announced a split decision.... and the real truth is the audience didn't even cheer despite Matthews being a hometown hero. They knew what they saw.

Weird Sherdog has unanimous r1 for velikovic and r3 for Matthews. Maybe I missed something in r1.

Fwiw I watched it w no commentary at sports bar so no commentary bias.

I agree velikovic won it as a whole but had it 29-28 Matthews under 10 pt

Missed Clark/Rawlings but it looks like I got the win on Clarke too

Werdum by sub please ideally in r1 to finish off a winning card. Will be either a big or small to medium win for the card depending.

Looks like a no to the r1 prop for Werdum, hopefully he wins via submission rather than TKO since both look possible atm but i'm pretty confident he's going to submit Tybura at some stage based on what we've seen so far

Less confident after r2 might need Tybura to gas or get rocked. Werdum seems to have figured out 'I can outstrike this guy I guess' so he seems content to do that

40-36 Werdum pretty gross Tybura saved by the bell on the guillotine and nearly got arm triangled

Hopefully we can get back to grappling for the r5 sub

Werdum is NOT taking his opponent seriously here and falling in love with his striking nearly got headkick KO'd twice there. He's going to get himself knocked out again by an elite striker if he keeps falling in love with his standup

Tybura only really has a punchers chance against Werdum and he's not even a better striker it's a pretty gross mismatch

I guess in hindsight the line is probably close to correct at +160 sub as he had 3 legit chances to submit him, maybe not quite good and more like +200 as Werdum is probably more likely to win by TKO than I expected

I think the value was in the straight up moneyline at -300ish in hindsight if they were to fight again i'd just take Werdum straight up probably.

Oh well lost a bit back but still another winning card for me, picked up about 1k for the card or so, would have been more like 3 and a bit if Werdum had got the sub.

Went 2-3 for -3.2 units. On the plus side, I had Nick Lentz to win by submission as a prop which alleviated some of the damage. Wish I had put some more money on that, in hindsight that was a massively +EV prop. But still a down night.

Also, I agree with RB87 re: Bisping v Gastelum: I think Gastelum is a horrible matchup for Michael Bisping and have made a big bet on him to win. Gastelum is younger, faster, has more power, has better boxing overall, and has a great chin. He's basically a guy who is significantly better at the things that Bisping does best.

swoop, great if you can finish up the end of the year with a nice big win.

Looking at Max Holloway v Jose Aldo, I think what we (the thread working out good bets) can do here is load up huge on Holloway... and then hedge with the "obvious", road to victory Aldo only has, Aldo by "lucky", explosive R1 KO, maybe in R2.

Its when you can do the following in MMA betting is when you win your bets.

- You can eliminate an obvious outcome, for example my developing favorite semi go to of ITD or (not to go the full x rds, 3 or 5).

- Secondly we can clearly classify the tools and structure of the fighters, what they bring to the table,



See the thing is I am not contaminated if that's the right word? with Aldo's previous own age of the division and it brings in another important point about betting MMA,

You got to be able to look at it, what ever it is, and see it in the cold hard light of day and not have any BIAS, BIAS like said in pulp fiction is like pride and it will get you in trouble.


To me Aldo has less than 10% chance of winning but as sure as I can be it certainly 1million percent is not going to be via any 5 round dominance of Holloway, its not going to be by any owning of the cage in rd 3 for example,

Aldo DID rock or come close to rocking Holloway, but close is some times an illusion in MMA with true masters able to move and allow the impression that the other fighter is close to landing, seeing which way the other fighters head is moving (riding the punch) is a good indicator of who is really in control.


I cant tell any one what to do, and I sure did try a few times in the thead, but I recommend we bet Holloway with huge sums and hedge that MOFO with Aldo by R1, R2 KO


I just can not understand why Aldo is going back into the cage with Holloway unless the fight is fixed or some thing but Holloway is a man of spiritual truth and above the game personally and spiritually and I know he and also UFC would never even go close to any thing like that.


I like Holloway and its conceivable Aldo will alter his game plain to be either even more explosive in the 1st or will drag it out into the 4th,

Aldo is too small and he tires.


This fight is free cake, you can pick up a little on your lips or you can smash it imo.

Guan Wang @ 6/4
Alex Caceres - Guan Wang
25th Nov
Fight Winner

Stake £100 EST return £250.
Adding some more in a min.

Caceres is going to get knocked out, go look up Guan Wang and where the guy trained.
China open up a special centre "Xian Sports University", aka a centre to turn out the most bad arse MMA fighters China can muster to the world stage.

This killer weight 146lb has a record of 16 wins 10 by KO, 2 subs, 4 decisions and his 1 loss? by decision.

Alex Caceres proved some thing to me recently in his fight against Jason Knight, its that he is great, at demonstration, wushu, at showing the art in martial art but at some point in a prize fight power and leathalness does come into it.

I see a video with Guan Wang saying into the camera with confidence how he is going to show his china power.


Well, fortunately I know wtf that means. It means you better wrap your kidneys up in Kevlar.

Ask your self this question... first ever fight card in China...middle kingdom has the pick of the litter to put up on the world stage,

You know how many people there are in China, its a lot plus 1billion.

This guys record is not no 16wins and 1 loss, this guy is some thing special indeed and little Alex Caceres is going to feel some real power and movement that is ON POINT.

there is on point.. and then there is the Chinese version of kung fu (internal excellence).

Alex Caceres is no fav here gtfo

Adding more,

Single

Guan Wang @6/4

Alex Caceres - Guan Wang
Fight Winner Stake £135.54 Est Return £338.85

I am hugely excited to see China participate in a UFC event (dream come true) and very much look forward to seeing in the coming years and decades ahead China and its people realize great success in the simple yet complex sport.


Release the Kraken!

Interesting. I might watch some tape on him and look into it Balla.

I fully expect Holloway to beat Aldo again but not laying -260 or whatever to fade Aldo even though he's clearly declining he's just too good a fighter to fade at that price. I took Holloway as a dog in the first first and I expect him to retain but the price is too steep.

Cyborg only -296 vs Holm which is interesting, Holly def has the best striking technically that Cyborg has faced and has better cardio, but she's still probably going to get hulk smashed. Cyborg looked a bit worse off the PEDs and her cardio is a big question mark but it's still tempting because it's Cyborg not at -1000

Lawler in to -118 vs RDA, I know he's declining a bit but that's very very tempting. He has better standup than RDA and is hard to take down imo plus should have a size advantage and even though he's old at 35, RDA is 33 and has had his share of wars too.

I guess the only issue is it's 3 rounds not 5 and RDA is a fast starter, if I have to pick an exact result i'd take 29-28 Lawler with RDA winning the first and Lawler winning the second and third rounds.

Bisping at +220 is starting to get tempting vs Gastelum. Yes, Bisping's past his prime and is on a quick turnaround but he's still a legitimate top 10 fighter at MW and I think Gastelum should be more like the -150 to -200 range. Gastelum is a pretty small guy for 185.

I'll definitely look into Guan, Caceres is flashy and talented offensively but his defense is pretty terrible.

I'm high on Li Jingliang but Ottow isn't bad. I think i'll take Jingliang if I can get -150 but probably not at the -170 hes at now.

Kailin Curran has one of the worst fight IQs of any female fighter but if she's a dog to the Chinese girl who has only fought cans i'll definitely consider it. Her 4-5 record might get her underdog odds and she's faced legit fighters and has lost fights she was winning due to mental errors. I'll have to see what the judging was like on the last China card if there's a hometown judging bias if i'm considering betting on/against a few Chinese fighters.

Shamil Adburahkimov won 3 rounds vs Derrick Lewis before losing so if he's at close to a pickem with Chase Sherman i'll probably get on there too. Will also consider the Abdurakhimov by decision prop if the price is reasonable which it's likely to be because HW. Maybe not since his last 4 wins have been by decision though idk.

I don't know who about half of the fighters on the undercard are, which for a hardcore MMA fan is not a good sign for the UFC. It's slightly weaker than the Australia card on paper I think although the Australia card delivered a decent night of fights so hopefully the China card does too.

Will wait for prelim odds to come out before figuring out what bets if any i'm making.

Also Oezdemir just got arrested so it seems pretty likely that we're going to be getting DC vs Gustafsson 2 (and i'll be taking Gustafsson if he's at + anything). UFC can't risk Oezdemir becoming champ then getting convicted of a felony, he'll get his title shot when the legal issues are behind him I guess.

I could be biased because I’m an RDA fan and have never liked Lawler, but I think RDA will win. Much better fight IQ, has better standup tools imo and much better on the ground if it goes there. Lawler needs to bull rush, clinch and brawl (which could definitely work) but I think RDA will find a way to win.

Where do you put a guy that decision wins over Nate Diaz over three rounds, decision wins over Anthony Pettis over five rounds, TKO's Donald Cerrone in rd 1 gets KO'ed by Eddie Alvarez (rd1) but then goes the distance vs Tony Ferguson at altitude (Mexico city), and then has won his last two fights.


What I see in that is that as obvious as it sounds, this is a guy that knows how to put a camp together, and come out with a great game plain.

From memory his KO loss to Eddie Alvarez was not a fluke but he was not warmed up or in gear and it was kind of unlucky, but lets remember eddie lifted the no1 tittle after this fight?

If any one is winning in the first round its Rafael Dos Anjo, he showed excellent pivoting and ability to get inside on Donald Cerrone Ill always remember how impressive and fast he was there.

Rafael Dos Anjo will get in the cage looking to obliterate Robbie Lawler in the first rd when he is cold and flat because as sure as lemons are bitter he is the wrong dude to be in front of when warmed up and double that if he has been nicely punched in the face hard a few times,

His Tarec Saffiedine fight brought Rafael Dos Anjo to Welterweight debut(June 17, 2017)

weight classes in UFC
Strawweight. 115 lb (52.2 kg)
Flyweight. 125 lb (56.7 kg)
Bantamweight. 135 lb (61.2 kg)
Featherweight. 145 lb (65.8 kg)
Lightweight. 155 lb (70.3 kg)
Super lightweight. 165 lb (74.8 kg)
Welterweight. 170 lb (77.1 kg)
Super welterweight. 175 lb (79.4 kg)


15lb of extra weight counts for a lot and means Rafael Dos Anjo will be feeling it and this fight in some ways will be fresh and new, his body will still feel a little more stronger fuller more capable backed by two wins at this new weight, so he is going to feel bullet proof a little.


This is a five round fight and if it goes over 2rds... forget about it Lawler engine will be running and that will be all she wrote, but those first two rounds are going to be a real chance for Rafael Dos Anjo to impose himself, and he has shown if he has the right mental cap on, he is an absolute killer.

Bet around the 1,2nd Rafael by stoppage, else Lawler will wear down and beat a "heavy", tired Rafael.

I don't think this fight goes the distance, Rafael has the advantage in the first round(s).

(Robbie Lawler has left years off his life in the cage, he deserves as much credit as is possible, when I think of the best fight I have ever seen and close my eyes its him vs Rory MacDonald).

Watching Alex Caceres vs Rolando Gabriel Dy (his last fight) has shown to me this is a fighter that is "light" in power. He also appears to enjoy looking good and keeping a fight going that he could have finished, if he heads into the 3rd vs a guy in that bad of condition and limited ability to fire back (and smaller), how is he going to handle a large pressure hunter killer like Wang Guan.


Wang Guan for a Featherweight seems to generate considerable power and he is a quick dominate attacker, although his movement is no dance its effective and puts the other fighter to the test about how are they going to handle some one looking to walk through them, he is impressive to watch and his although limited arsenal looks to be foundation for more exotic techniques if the avenues arises, If there is a fighter I like to be betting against with a fighter that is going to walk him down with lethal power, its Alex Caceres, give him room and ability to express himself sure he looks the part but what happens if you don't allow him to express himself oppress him compact him. in a fight vs some one like Wang he needs to be able to stop the other fighter cold by way of KO and I know he wont be stopping him by sub all that ground game will be mastered inside out outside in.

If Alex Caceres is an exhibit piece vs a terminator T1000, he may dance and move around Wang the whole fight but note in his last fight (Rolando Gabriel Dy) he got caught plenty in the 2nd round vs a one eyed guy that should have been out of there already, Alex gets hit,

So in vs a guy he wont finish
Other guy is powerful, walks forward, KO artist, broad shoulders, strong as an ox.
Fight is in China (home turf).
Bruce lee came from these neck of the woods and his movement and tactics although excellent for him due to his speed and tremendous force generated is difficult for other people to use devastatingly, it allows students of this part of the world to analyse a good counter strat,
Wang Guan body kicks able to take trees down.

Alex Caceres has a legit fight in shanghai, what ever is the outcome its good for the sport, he will gain great recognition for his art, if he does lose but gets it into a competitive battle he will gain a nations admiration imo.

Wang Guan by 3rd KO.

Are there 10-10 rounds in Australia? I've seen Theodorou 30-28 from multiple sources

It's weirdly inconsistent how we occasionally get a 10-10 score in a round where strikes were landed (fair enough to score a round 10-10 if neither fighter lands a strike or takedown) and then sometimes you don't. No idea if it's Australia specific, I don't think so.

I fired my first two bets for the China card, took Abdurakhimov at -134 and Wang Guan at +135, don't think i'm going go too hard on this card. I kind of want Kailin Curran at +120 even though she's amazing at losing fights and I kind of want Li at -175 but it's just slightly steeper than i'm willing to pay. I just noticed that Wang Guan is +145 at one of my locals, so oops did not get the best price there. I guess I might go bigger if he steams in a bit.

I'm pretty sure i'll take Bisping too, he's +245ish at the moment but I think the general steam has been on Gastelum so i'll wait for now, I don't think the Bisping price will get that much worse, although it seems to have moved in from the absolute top of the steam slightly. I think Gastelum wins but I also don't think Bisping is more than a +200 dog here. Actually, talked myself into it, taking Bisping +245 for half the size of my other two bets

My card so far

Abdurakhimov -134
Guan +135
Bisping +245

Sized my bets slightly smaller than usual so far but may end up adding more at weigh ins/later etc

Is Conor v Tony confirmed? Betfair have it listed already but cant find its confirmed.

https://www.betfair.com/sport/mixed-...entId=28424293

It's not confirmed afaik its just a likely fight in 2018

I really don't see Bisping beating Gastelum absent a highly improbable knockout. I think he's like a 4-1 dog and personally wouldn't touch him at +245, but to each his own.

I know I've already made my case here, but Gastelum:
- Has better hands than Michael Bisping
- Is younger (he's 26 and in his prime, Bisping is 38 and thinking about retirement)
- Is faster / has ++ handspeed
- Has more power
- Has never been KO'd or TKO'd and seems to have a really good chin
- Has very good TDD (not that Bisping is really a wrestler who looks to take people down, but still). If Tim Kennedy couldn't hold him down, Bisping's not gonna be able to hold him down.

So I mean, what is Bisping's path to victory here? He's gonna have to try to strike with him, and while obviously it's a fight and anything can happen, I just don't see Bisping winning a striking battle.

Agreed, Bisping just got choked out, but basically got TKO'd and GSP isn't as good a striker as Gastelum imo. Bisping has size and reach etc and it's 5 rounds.

But because he is fighting almost immediately after getting choked out vs a guy that has a great chin and puts guys to sleep, I just don't see how Bisping is going to win this. Gastelum has 5 rounds to touch Bisping chin and when he does, Bisping is likely going night night.

Gastelum struggles with wrestlers but I don't see Bisping taking that approach at all. He's a striker and he despises wrestlers!

I think the bet is Gastelum by KO at 1.9 that's a pretty solid punt imo.

I wouldn't take him straight up at 1.33, looks a little short but I wouldn't bet the other way just because of the short price.

Also Bisping looking at retirement, he is likely just trying to get some more $$$$ as quickly as possible.

Cub Swanson v Brian Artega, I think Cub should be a bigger favorite. Artega is young but he has holes in his game and get hit a ton, Cub is going to exploit him, I think this is a great bet at 1.8.