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Old Yesterday, 12:41 AM   #44301
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Re: MMA Thread

Whew I had it for Matthews narrowly but knew it could go either way

He's such a powerful offensive grappler but he makes so many mistakes he still has potential but he needs to move to the us and train with real camp
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Old Yesterday, 12:42 AM   #44302
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Come on Jake Matthews show us some of that potential
No need when u got 2 judges to bring your potential. Sick decision. Should have been 30-26 to perhaps 29-28 all for the Serbian fighter. Even Jake's Dad knew his kid needed the finish. Disgraceful judging.
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Old Yesterday, 01:02 AM   #44303
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Re: MMA Thread

Wtf no at 30-26 lol 29-28 either way is the only acceptable scorecard imo velikovic won the fight as a whole but Matthews won r1 clearly imo even though it was a close round and round 3 was close but Matthews had a better sub attempt and they had a similar amount if top control obviously r2 was dominant but probably not a 10-8 and r1 and 3 were close but I had it coming down to a super close r3 and I think Matthews edged it under 10 point although I'd have to rewatch. Velikovic clearly won under pride rules. I think Matthews beat Holbrook and lost an unlucky decision so I don't mind if he gets a lucky one

A judge scoring brown vs camacho for brown is miles worse than either judge scoring this one for either fighter imo you couldn't complain either way r1 and 3 were close so the fight can go either way. Brown lost rounds 2 and 3 badly and still get it on one card somehow

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Old Yesterday, 01:12 AM   #44304
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Re: MMA Thread

meh... Matthews got 1 TD with like 5 attempts in rd1 and ate a lot of elbows trying for the TD. On the ground he did nothing. Both guys could have done better work but both are still improving.

The truth came with the commentators never hinting that Matthews had a chance come decision. The camera only zoomed in on the Serbian prior to it being announced a split decision.... and the real truth is the audience didn't even cheer despite Matthews being a hometown hero. They knew what they saw.
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Old Yesterday, 01:21 AM   #44305
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Re: MMA Thread

Weird Sherdog has unanimous r1 for velikovic and r3 for Matthews. Maybe I missed something in r1.

Fwiw I watched it w no commentary at sports bar so no commentary bias.

I agree velikovic won it as a whole but had it 29-28 Matthews under 10 pt
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Old Yesterday, 01:48 AM   #44306
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Re: MMA Thread

Missed Clark/Rawlings but it looks like I got the win on Clarke too

Werdum by sub please ideally in r1 to finish off a winning card. Will be either a big or small to medium win for the card depending.
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Old Yesterday, 01:58 AM   #44307
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Re: MMA Thread

Looks like a no to the r1 prop for Werdum, hopefully he wins via submission rather than TKO since both look possible atm but i'm pretty confident he's going to submit Tybura at some stage based on what we've seen so far
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Old Yesterday, 02:05 AM   #44308
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Re: MMA Thread

Less confident after r2 might need Tybura to gas or get rocked. Werdum seems to have figured out 'I can outstrike this guy I guess' so he seems content to do that
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Old Yesterday, 02:17 AM   #44309
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Re: MMA Thread

40-36 Werdum pretty gross Tybura saved by the bell on the guillotine and nearly got arm triangled

Hopefully we can get back to grappling for the r5 sub
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Old Yesterday, 02:20 AM   #44310
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Re: MMA Thread

Werdum is NOT taking his opponent seriously here and falling in love with his striking nearly got headkick KO'd twice there. He's going to get himself knocked out again by an elite striker if he keeps falling in love with his standup

Tybura only really has a punchers chance against Werdum and he's not even a better striker it's a pretty gross mismatch

I guess in hindsight the line is probably close to correct at +160 sub as he had 3 legit chances to submit him, maybe not quite good and more like +200 as Werdum is probably more likely to win by TKO than I expected

I think the value was in the straight up moneyline at -300ish in hindsight if they were to fight again i'd just take Werdum straight up probably.

Oh well lost a bit back but still another winning card for me, picked up about 1k for the card or so, would have been more like 3 and a bit if Werdum had got the sub.
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Old Yesterday, 05:31 AM   #44311
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Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Anyways, now have Bec Rawlings, Ryan Benoit, Camacho, Lausa, and Kelly.
Went 2-3 for -3.2 units. On the plus side, I had Nick Lentz to win by submission as a prop which alleviated some of the damage. Wish I had put some more money on that, in hindsight that was a massively +EV prop. But still a down night.

Also, I agree with RB87 re: Bisping v Gastelum: I think Gastelum is a horrible matchup for Michael Bisping and have made a big bet on him to win. Gastelum is younger, faster, has more power, has better boxing overall, and has a great chin. He's basically a guy who is significantly better at the things that Bisping does best.
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Old Yesterday, 12:13 PM   #44312
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Re: MMA Thread

swoop, great if you can finish up the end of the year with a nice big win.

Looking at Max Holloway v Jose Aldo, I think what we (the thread working out good bets) can do here is load up huge on Holloway... and then hedge with the "obvious", road to victory Aldo only has, Aldo by "lucky", explosive R1 KO, maybe in R2.

Its when you can do the following in MMA betting is when you win your bets.

- You can eliminate an obvious outcome, for example my developing favorite semi go to of ITD or (not to go the full x rds, 3 or 5).

- Secondly we can clearly classify the tools and structure of the fighters, what they bring to the table,



See the thing is I am not contaminated if that's the right word? with Aldo's previous own age of the division and it brings in another important point about betting MMA,

You got to be able to look at it, what ever it is, and see it in the cold hard light of day and not have any BIAS, BIAS like said in pulp fiction is like pride and it will get you in trouble.


To me Aldo has less than 10% chance of winning but as sure as I can be it certainly 1million percent is not going to be via any 5 round dominance of Holloway, its not going to be by any owning of the cage in rd 3 for example,

Aldo DID rock or come close to rocking Holloway, but close is some times an illusion in MMA with true masters able to move and allow the impression that the other fighter is close to landing, seeing which way the other fighters head is moving (riding the punch) is a good indicator of who is really in control.


I cant tell any one what to do, and I sure did try a few times in the thead, but I recommend we bet Holloway with huge sums and hedge that MOFO with Aldo by R1, R2 KO


I just can not understand why Aldo is going back into the cage with Holloway unless the fight is fixed or some thing but Holloway is a man of spiritual truth and above the game personally and spiritually and I know he and also UFC would never even go close to any thing like that.


I like Holloway and its conceivable Aldo will alter his game plain to be either even more explosive in the 1st or will drag it out into the 4th,

Aldo is too small and he tires.


This fight is free cake, you can pick up a little on your lips or you can smash it imo.
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Old Yesterday, 06:31 PM   #44313
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Re: MMA Thread

Guan Wang @ 6/4
Alex Caceres - Guan Wang
25th Nov
Fight Winner

Stake £100 EST return £250.
Adding some more in a min.

Caceres is going to get knocked out, go look up Guan Wang and where the guy trained.
China open up a special centre "Xian Sports University", aka a centre to turn out the most bad arse MMA fighters China can muster to the world stage.

This killer weight 146lb has a record of 16 wins 10 by KO, 2 subs, 4 decisions and his 1 loss? by decision.

Alex Caceres proved some thing to me recently in his fight against Jason Knight, its that he is great, at demonstration, wushu, at showing the art in martial art but at some point in a prize fight power and leathalness does come into it.

I see a video with Guan Wang saying into the camera with confidence how he is going to show his china power.


Well, fortunately I know wtf that means. It means you better wrap your kidneys up in Kevlar.

Ask your self this question... first ever fight card in China...middle kingdom has the pick of the litter to put up on the world stage,

You know how many people there are in China, its a lot plus 1billion.

This guys record is not no 16wins and 1 loss, this guy is some thing special indeed and little Alex Caceres is going to feel some real power and movement that is ON POINT.

there is on point.. and then there is the Chinese version of kung fu (internal excellence).

Alex Caceres is no fav here gtfo

Adding more,
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Old Yesterday, 06:42 PM   #44314
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Smile Re: MMA Thread

Single

Guan Wang @6/4

Alex Caceres - Guan Wang
Fight Winner Stake £135.54 Est Return £338.85

I am hugely excited to see China participate in a UFC event (dream come true) and very much look forward to seeing in the coming years and decades ahead China and its people realize great success in the simple yet complex sport.


Release the Kraken!
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Old Yesterday, 06:55 PM   #44315
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Re: MMA Thread

Interesting. I might watch some tape on him and look into it Balla.

I fully expect Holloway to beat Aldo again but not laying -260 or whatever to fade Aldo even though he's clearly declining he's just too good a fighter to fade at that price. I took Holloway as a dog in the first first and I expect him to retain but the price is too steep.

Cyborg only -296 vs Holm which is interesting, Holly def has the best striking technically that Cyborg has faced and has better cardio, but she's still probably going to get hulk smashed. Cyborg looked a bit worse off the PEDs and her cardio is a big question mark but it's still tempting because it's Cyborg not at -1000

Lawler in to -118 vs RDA, I know he's declining a bit but that's very very tempting. He has better standup than RDA and is hard to take down imo plus should have a size advantage and even though he's old at 35, RDA is 33 and has had his share of wars too.

I guess the only issue is it's 3 rounds not 5 and RDA is a fast starter, if I have to pick an exact result i'd take 29-28 Lawler with RDA winning the first and Lawler winning the second and third rounds.

Bisping at +220 is starting to get tempting vs Gastelum. Yes, Bisping's past his prime and is on a quick turnaround but he's still a legitimate top 10 fighter at MW and I think Gastelum should be more like the -150 to -200 range. Gastelum is a pretty small guy for 185.

I'll definitely look into Guan, Caceres is flashy and talented offensively but his defense is pretty terrible.

I'm high on Li Jingliang but Ottow isn't bad. I think i'll take Jingliang if I can get -150 but probably not at the -170 hes at now.

Kailin Curran has one of the worst fight IQs of any female fighter but if she's a dog to the Chinese girl who has only fought cans i'll definitely consider it. Her 4-5 record might get her underdog odds and she's faced legit fighters and has lost fights she was winning due to mental errors. I'll have to see what the judging was like on the last China card if there's a hometown judging bias if i'm considering betting on/against a few Chinese fighters.

Shamil Adburahkimov won 3 rounds vs Derrick Lewis before losing so if he's at close to a pickem with Chase Sherman i'll probably get on there too. Will also consider the Abdurakhimov by decision prop if the price is reasonable which it's likely to be because HW. Maybe not since his last 4 wins have been by decision though idk.

I don't know who about half of the fighters on the undercard are, which for a hardcore MMA fan is not a good sign for the UFC. It's slightly weaker than the Australia card on paper I think although the Australia card delivered a decent night of fights so hopefully the China card does too.

Will wait for prelim odds to come out before figuring out what bets if any i'm making.

Also Oezdemir just got arrested so it seems pretty likely that we're going to be getting DC vs Gustafsson 2 (and i'll be taking Gustafsson if he's at + anything). UFC can't risk Oezdemir becoming champ then getting convicted of a felony, he'll get his title shot when the legal issues are behind him I guess.
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