Don't like this weekend's card at all for betting.

Like Gastelum against Bisping. Really bad match up for Bisping without coming off a stoppage and fighting short notice.

Missed out on the early price but still like him at 1.53. Really have a tough time seeing Bisping hanging with Gatelum unless he takes a wrestle heavy approach. Which is something he has never done.

Sportsbook.com has futures for the winner of the Bellator 2018 Heavyweight Grand Prix if you don't mind tying money up for as long as a year. Betting the field assumes there will be an alternate winning the GP, a not inconceivable outcome if you remember alternate Daniel Cormier winning the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix years ago:

Chael Sonnen +1200
Fedor Emelianenko +500
Frank Mir +380
Matt Mitrione +200
Muhammed Lawal +1200
Quinton Jackson +1500
Roy Nelson +500
Ryan Bader +260
Field (Any Other Fighter) +1000

Bovada Odds
*Fight not official - just rumored

I don't think that Jenel Lausa should be +290 versus Eric Shelton. An underdog, sure, but to my eye his hands are much better than Eric Shelton's, if he can successfully defend the TD and keep the fight standing he could have a lot of success. I think there's good value at +290.

Also, couldn't help myself and took me some Dan Kelly at +220 (small). I don't love it, but such a big part of Theodorou's game is initiating the clinch when pressured, and I just don't see him having a lot of success there against Kelly. Plus, you know, Kelly's a high IQ guy and a former Olympian, Theodorou's doing movies and sh*t and probably isn't all in on being a cage fighter, etc.

But I'm probably just biased towards Judo guys and lighting money on fire. Whatever, it's a small bet.

Anyways, now have Bec Rawlings, Ryan Benoit, Camacho, Lausa, and Kelly.

Must fight in 2018 for action? I think the bout is rumored to be held at UFC 219 on December 30th, 2017.

Diaz getting the WB fight over the Lawler/RDA winner is kind of ridiculous but if they really make the fight for December so that the division isn't held up i'm fine with it - obviously the UFC want Diaz to win the belt so they can make Conor/Diaz 3 for a third belt and he actually should beat Woodley standing if he doesn't get put out cold when Woodley hits him through volume, but the far more likely outcome is Woodley takes him down at will and beats him up on the mat. Still, Nate has a good submission game from guard so i'd watch it.

I think -230 or something's about right for Woodley vs Diaz. Woodley

Even though Wonderboy and the Lawler/RDA winner and Covington all deserve it more as well as GSP although GSP has to fight Whittaker next in his contract apparently and that should be the main event for the Perth card imo, they can't make a third Wonderboy fight until he cleans out the division or Woodley loses the belt, timing may not work for Lawler/RDA if Woodley wants to fight before the end of the year and Covington does really need one more win and it's a heel vs heel fight which is the problem as far as buy rates go it'd make a lot more sense if the champ was either well loved and easy to cheer for or Brazilian given who Covington is.

Werdum and Covington got into an altercation in Australia apparently

https://www.mmafighting.com/2017/11/...ed-altercation

Covington could be the new super-heel in Brazil the way Sonnen was if he plays his cards right, since he's such a boring fighter it does make sense $ wise to go full heel as he's never going to be a draw with fans cheering for him. The problem is 170 is pretty light on Brazilian 'heroes' for him to fight at the moment other than RDA

Kassem seems to be steaming in a bit and the Matthews price seems to be getting better with money coming on Velikovic, Brooks has already steamed since my original leans so 2 of my picks moving in and 1 drifting although I still haven't fired any bets, might as well wait for weigh ins if i've waited this long

Yes if it fight wont happen, they will lock up your money for a whole year, better to just wait for announcement before placing a bet on this one IMO

LOL look at this one, McGregor vs (the swimmer) Michael Phelps
AND McGregor is the huge underdog, that is just so bad, they just want to lock your money up for a long time, since there is 0% chance this fight happens,

https://gyazo.com/af6ff721b4fe53b2b91342675f100ed8

Works two ways, there's the interest from locking the money up for a year then theres the small chance the account owner forgets about the account/dies/whatever else and they get to keep the money. I understand why people might bet on fights likely to happen like GSP/Whittaker or Conor/Ferguson to lock in a good early line but stuff like Conor vs Phelps is just stupid

Yeah good point, I still have a bet that is finally coming 'free' end of they year that I almost forgot about

sometimes early lines are pretty good indeed, I got in a nice early bet on TJ vs DJ on TJ at 2.75, so hope that happens early 2018, else I got like 10% of my Bankroll locked up until end of 2018 or until it the fight takes place. Also no mention about weight-class so hope they somehow do it at 135 or 130 wich only increases the value of my bet.

That's an amazing price for TJ i'm pretty tempted at evens or better. Going to wait until the fight is announced though to bet it

yeah really happy about it, keep an eye on Ohmbet they sometimes have really profitable early lines.

Bellator 188 Risk $1270.00

Noad Lahat/Jeremiah Labiano Under 2½ (-145) $145.00 for $100.00

John Salter/Jason Radcliffe Under 1½ (-185) $185.00 for $100.00

Denise Kielholtz (+205) vs Jessica Middleton $100.00 for $205.00
Denise Kielholtz (+200) vs Jessica Middleton $150.00 for $300.00
Denise Kielholtz (+200) vs Jessica Middleton $100.00 for $200.00
Denise Kielholtz (+195) vs Jessica Middleton $100.00 for $195.00
Denise Kielholtz (-130) vs Jessica Middleton $390.00 for $300.00
Denise Kielholtz wins by 3 round decision (+155) $100.00 for $155.00

getting wood chippings in the oven on Alex... think she is aged a little pushing up hill getting in with little ms Tyson, could hang till the 3rd.. and seeing 33/1... umm.. that's kind of possible here with the fav vs an old dog that will know will know how to drag the fight out unless she gets blasted which is difficult at this weight and seriousness.

People get all crazy KO records but then when you step in with actual professionals that are legit it doesn't translate, her edge if it exists (nadia) could become more evident rd 3 so I like the 33/1 here.

Seems Nadia is a little animal even her own boy friend (which coaches her) does not know who she is some times when training (Spar) she has the eye of the tiger and has the cage as a place of purity which I like to hear.

Hopefully she has a great fight and it at least steps her up so she can see what it is like at the more difficult level with opponents that know lots of tricks... like moving their heads out of range or away from spinning back fists lol

Like the mature movement in her fight in which she took a bantamweight belt, she doesn't rush and is no amateur in movement even when the opponent is smashed badly, she progresses.

Nadia is a Boxing, BJJ artist and have to guess her BJJ is at beyond comprehension level immaculate,

Little collaborating information, bookies have her as semi big fav...

Ill bite.... jumping on the Nadia glory train



Win
Single: Nadia Kassem to Win in Round 3 @ 33/1
1 line at £25.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £25.00
Potential returns: £850.00

Single £125.00
Kassem, Nadia @ 8/11 (Fight Prices)
Event: Chambers v Kassem
Est. Return: £215.91
Stake: £125.00

interesting to see what happens in this fight, could be a new shark in the waters

I didn't notice that.

I see that they've changed it to "Must fight in 2017 or 2018 for action".

That r3 prop is pretty solid imo at the price you got

I missed the early Kassem line but oh well will wait for weigh ins now after i've waited this long

I am taking a chance on Gleidson DeJesus at +409 against a very promising prospect Jose Torres in Titan FC 46. This is a value play, as I consider Torres one of the best lighter weight prospects outside the UFC right now. But Torres is coming off a broken right hand, torn right MCL and long layoff and he's defending his bantamweight belt instead of his Titan FC flyweight belt tonight, when he really should be a flyweight in the UFC eventually. He'll be giving up height, reach and size to DeJesus who last fought at a 140 pound catchweight and looked good there. DeJesus has good power for the weight class, a good sprawl and takedown defense and submission capability and he stays pretty composed in there. If Torres isn't 100% and DeJesus is on his game I think he can be a difficult fight for Torres. Also from a pop psychology viewpoint, Torres said in one of his interviews that if he lost this fight, no big deal because it's up from his ideal weight class and that he'll still get in the UFC. I didn't like to hear that from Shorty.

Titan FC 46 Risk $345.00

Gleidson DeJesus (+409) vs Jose Torres $100.00 for $409.00

Raush Manfio (+118) vs Chazz Walton $100.00 for $118.00

Parlay:
Jorge Calvo Martin (-235) vs Juan Puerta + Gustavo Balart (-501) vs Marcelo Castaneda $145.00 for $102.96



I like the Northeast locals on CES tonight, especially with Rebello's experience and Santiago's pro winning streak.

CES MMA 47 Risk $532.50

Greg Rebello (-170) vs Derrick Brown $255.00 for $150.00
Richard Santiago (-185) vs Shawn Mack $277.50 for $150.00

Added more on Manfio in the co-main. His knees are awesome: Raush Manfio (+115) vs Chazz Walton $100.00 for $115.00

Lol kassem benoit clark and camacho all miss weight. What a joke same day weigh ins or mandatory move up a weight class if you miss weight. Weight cutting is dangerous stupid etc

Just move every weight class up 10 pounds til lw 165 make ww 185 mW 200 lhw 220 and hw 221 to 300 as I don't anyone above 300 is in shape to fight. All champs retain their belts but can move weight classes if they want. Scales on the way to the octagon.

Unfortunantly until someone dies they will never even consider such common sense fixes.

Also tomorrows card is garbage, hard to get excited. Highlight of the whole thing will be Werdum throwing the boomerang at Covington.

Backed Kelly at 3.5 and Volkanovski inside the distance at 1.66.
Kelly usually makes fights awkward and with the crowd behind him could easily sway a split decision. Volkanovski should crush Young and think there is some value at 1.66 although 5dimes are offering 1.71.

Also like Camacho but a little worried he missed weight so going to pass on that.

Ended up firing a bunch of late spots. I took Kassem -17x despite the weigh in miss and also a Kassem r3 +3300 prop I found which is obv good because WSW TKOs tend to happen due to accumulation of damage, Chambers has been subbed several times despite being a grappler herself and Chambers is likely to be outclassed as long as Kassem's cardio is fine. This is mostly a fade on Chambers, she was one of my favourites on TUF and seems awesome and I loved her comeback vs Curran it was one of my favourite MMA moments ever for non-big name fighters but she's 39, not getting any better and isn't really UFC level and Kassem while untested seems to be a prospect. She missed weight which is a concern, but at WSW they *should* have cardio and given she missed weight she REALLY needs this win if she's going to get a second UFC fight.

Clark at +122 because she steamed in a pile today and I dislike Rawlings and it's close to an arb vs Pinny so can't be terrible even though I was leaning the other way I forgot Bec is moving up from 115 and Clark normally fights at FLW not SW. They both seem to not really be UFC level fighters, Bec has her moments but is sloppy lazy and dumb and I haven't seen enough of Clark to have any idea really, but she's slightly bigger and a dog so whatever, although Bec's obviously faced the higher level competition and Clark obviously had a rough weight cut. Another case of they're small enough girls cardio hopefully isn't an issue and Clark also needs this win to get a second UFC fight given she missed weight.

Matthews -140ish, I rode the Matthews hype train hard and while I got off it a bit I do think he's still slightly underrated as I had him winning his last fight he's just not as good as I thought he was at first. He needs this one and is hopefully focused and he's still young and improving.

Werdum SUB at +160 and Werdum wins in r1 at +300, Werdum should tap Tybura as soon as a grappling exchange happens and it's 5 rounds. Werdum could win by R2 TKO or something stupid that misses both props, but I fully expect him to submit Tybura sometime in the first 3 rounds and he very easily could in the first minute or two if he gets him down.

Tuivasa at -17x and wins by r1 TKO +188. Unbeaten prospect with heavy KO power fighting at home against a guy coming off a KO loss who doesn't really have any good wins. Granted Tuivada doesn't either but he's the better prospect, the fight is -500 to not go the distance and unless they both gas I fully expect Tuivasa to knock Coulter out (or get knocked out on occasion but I think he deserves to be the favourite even though hes unproven). Also, AUSSIE AUSSIE AUSSIE patriotism and whatnot.

Made a small play on Camacho at -128 (was going to go wins by r1 TKO at +400 instead and I think that might be better in hindsight but oh well). Would have gone bigger if he didnt miss weight. Should have probably played the prop but straight up will do it's a high enough variance card as is with all the props I have.

Also did a small Brooks + Volkanovski parlay at -260ish which i'm sure is horrible in theory but I just do not see either one of them losing almost ever, barring puncher's chance in the Volkanovski fight vs a short notice journeyman and Brooks against a worse grappler and striker who doesn't have KO power, Lentz only hope is to LnP for 2 rounds and I don't see a path for him to do that given Brooks has hung in there with better offensive grapplers, Brooks has disappointed in the UFC so far but he's so much better than Lentz at everything he should win easily and I was stupid not to bet him straight up at the -3xx open.

Was going to take Benoit but decided not to after he missed weight because he's a bit of a headcase and is a bigger favourite than the others that missed, I fully expect him to wreck Mokhtarian though. I bet on the other 3 fighters that missed weight because apparently I like to live dangerously or something. Red flags everywhere. Hopefully it works out.

No interest in Shelton/Lausa, Kelly/Theodorou (lean Kelly at +260 but wont fire unless it gets to +300, obv lean Theodorou by decision but with homecrowd judging and a likely competitive fight not playing him ever), Muhammad/Means or Wieczorek/Hamilton, all four fights lines seem about right to me. Of the four i'd be closest to betting Kelly probably. All no plays for me though.

Let's see if I can extend this current hot streak i've been on over the past 3 months or so. It's been a weird year, the first half of the year was my worst period of MMA betting ever and the second half the year so far has been my best period of MMA betting ever.

UFN 121 Risk $2087.00

Fabricio Werdum/Marcin Tybura Under 2½ (-120) $120.00 for $100.00

Bec Rawlings (-120) vs Jessica-Rose Clark $120.00 for $100.00
Bec Rawlings (-123) vs Jessica-Rose Clark $123.00 for $100.00

Tim Means (-200) vs Belal Muhammad $200.00 for $100.00
Tim Means wins by TKO/KO (+250) $40.00 for $100.00
Tim Means wins in round 2 (+600) $10.00 for $60.00

Bojan Velickovic (+120) vs Jake Matthews $100.00 for $120.00

Daniel Kelly (+260) vs Elias Theodorou $100.00 for $260.00
Daniel Kelly +3½ points (-160) $160.00 for $100.00
Daniel Kelly +3½ points (-160) $160.00 for $100.00

Alex Volkanovski/Shane Young Under 2½ (-164) $164.00 for $100.00

Ryan Benoit/Ashkan Mokhtarian Under 2½ (+117) $50.00 for $58.50

Will Brooks wins in round 3 (+1300) vs Nik Lentz $15.00 for $195.00

Rashad Coulter (+155) vs Tai Tuivasa $100.00 for $155.00

Damien Brown (+115) vs Frank Camacho $100.00 for $115.00

Alex Chambers (+170) vs Nadia Kassem $100.00 for $170.00
Alex Chambers (+170) vs Nadia Kassem $100.00 for $170.00
Alex Chambers wins by submission (+390) $35.00 for $136.50
Alex Chambers wins in round 3 (+1350) $20.00 for $270.00
Nadia Kassem wins in round 1 (+375) $30.00 for $112.50

Eric Shelton wins by submission (+400) vs Jenel Lausa $25.00 for $100.00

Adam Wieczorek (-160) vs Anthony Hamilton $160.00 for $100.00
Adam Wieczorek wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+140) $40.00 for $56.00

Bojan Velickovic/Jake Matthews FOTN award winner (+800) $15.00 for $120.00

she might knock her out man in the 3rd.....