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Old 11-11-2017, 11:34 PM   #44226
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Re: MMA Thread

Bisping is in for Anderson in Shanghai? Wow

Aldo/Holloway 2 as well
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Old 11-11-2017, 11:39 PM   #44227
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Re: MMA Thread

Copa Combate Risk $240.00

Marcelo Rojo (-190) vs Mikey Erosa + Levy Saul Marroquin (-210) vs Carlos Rivera $40.00 for $50.13

Marcelo Rojo (-190) vs Mikey Erosa + John Castaneda (-415) vs Kevin Moreyra $40.00 for $35.76

Marcelo Rojo (-190) vs Mikey Erosa + Marc Gomez (-350) vs Alejandro Abomohor $40.00 for $38.50

Levy Saul Marroquin (-210) vs Carlos Rivera + John Castaneda (-415) vs Kevin Moreyra $40.00 for $33.28

Levy Saul Marroquin (-210) vs Carlos Rivera + Marc Gomez (-350) vs Alejandro Abomohor $40.00 for $35.92

John Castaneda (-415) vs Kevin Moreyra + Marc Gomez (-350) vs Alejandro Abomohor $40.00 for $23.82
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Old 11-12-2017, 12:38 AM   #44228
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Re: MMA Thread

Just tuning in now, taking some Arlovski +280, obviously his chin is pretty gone but it's HW and anyone can knock out anyone and he's too offensively talented to be that big a dog against a prospect with no top 15 wins

I was actually considering Marquardt yesterday but only woke up mid fight looks like he made a fight of it
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Old 11-12-2017, 12:50 AM   #44229
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Re: MMA Thread

Arlovskis going to win if his chin holds up he's got the way better technique so far

Albini really does look like a fat baby
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Old 11-12-2017, 12:54 AM   #44230
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Re: MMA Thread

Competitive first round but pretty clear 10-9 Arlovski as he landed cleaner

Going to come down to cardio and whether Arlovski's chin holds up

Win or lose i'm very confident im on the right side at +280
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Old 11-12-2017, 01:00 AM   #44231
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Re: MMA Thread

Arlovski looks the best he has in a few fights, his cardio loks really good today and he's landing cleaner

20-18, first 4m of the round was close, Albini had the octagon control but Arlovski's clearly landing the better shots and seems to have better activity and cardio the clean shots at the end of the round make it a clear round for him

Albini's corner calling for leglocks/BJJ so they must be desperate
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Old 11-12-2017, 01:09 AM   #44232
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Re: MMA Thread

I have it a pretty clear 30-27 Arlovski scoring it in real time but the first round on the numbers Albibi landed more. Should be a 30-27, might see one 29-28 mixed in

Arlovski's never failed a drug test has he pretty sick how many roided up monsters he's beaten over the years and several generations of fighters when his chin's been fairly shot for several years.

Not sure if i'm going to fire any other spots

I love Arlovski 'if I lost tonight I was probably done but **** that im going to keep fighting'. One more win to tie Mir for most wins in UFC HW history. Hopefully they match him up with more 11-20 ranked guys in fights that are winnable but also challenging, he can be a solid gatekeeper to the top ten for another year or two hopefully.
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Old 11-12-2017, 01:17 AM   #44233
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Re: MMA Thread

I hope Brown gets to go out on a win. Not playing this one though too many variables and the price seems about right.
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Old 11-12-2017, 01:28 AM   #44234
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Re: MMA Thread

If Matt Brown didn't fold to body shots he could fight forever

Great finish for him. Diego really needs to fight lower level UFC guys at this point trying to move up in the ranks if he wants to keep fighting.
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Old 11-12-2017, 01:37 AM   #44235
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Re: MMA Thread

This is a tough one stylistically I like Pettis but I think he's past his prime and Poirier is still in his prime so i'm not sure what to make of it. Might fire something tiny for a sweat during walkouts but nothing significant

I think if Poirier shoots early and often and can get Pettis down he'll win, if not then he won't. So much comes down to Poirier's fight IQ.
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Old 11-12-2017, 01:45 AM   #44236
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Re: MMA Thread

Putting 100 on Poirier -106 as a 'Pettis is done post-USADA' sweat even though stylistically I like Pettis to find his chin if he doesn't i'm confident Poirier beats him in a 5 rounder. Pettis just hasn't looked good in a long time. Had 500 on Arlovski +280, so relatively small bet for me, that should do for today and another winning card
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Old 11-12-2017, 01:54 AM   #44237
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Re: MMA Thread

Wow, sick exchanges at the end of the round

Poirier has this unless he gets caught but if he trades like that he could, he def looks in his prime and Pettis doesn't
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Old 11-12-2017, 02:01 AM   #44238
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Re: MMA Thread

First UFC fight I’ve ever watched...IS THERE ALWAYS THIS MUCH BLOOD?!?
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Old 11-12-2017, 02:06 AM   #44239
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Re: MMA Thread

Poirier looks good. I think he's too hittable to ever be champ but good performance today

Picked up 1.5k for this card going 2/2, nice run in the second half of the year for me I think thats like 7/9 winning cards or something recently after I had a bad start to 2017

@stew blood like the main event is rare, maybe once every 3-4 cards worth of fights? (so once every 40 fights or so would be my guess) - Minor blood is pretty common though like once or twice a card (avg 10ish fights) a fighter gets a cut but not a bloodbath like the main that only happens once every few cards or so when a fighter gets badly cut

If this was your first UFC fight ever you should download/watch all of UFC 217 which happened last week, it has 3 title fights, a lot of big name fighters and was a very entertaining card to watch plus it happened last week so everything is relevant to the current UFC. You should also watch UFC 189 and 205 as both weren't too long ago and are some of the best events in recent memory. UFC 202 as well especially if you want to catch up on all the Conor McGregor hype (those 3 cards all have him on them).

Individual fights to watch, some of the best fights this year have been Swanson vs Choi, Johnson vs Gaethje, ill think of a few more. You should also watch Griffin vs Bonnar 1 for the history as the fight that started the modern era in the UFC.

Last edited by SwoopAE; 11-12-2017 at 02:12 AM.
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Old 11-12-2017, 02:11 AM   #44240
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Re: MMA Thread

That **** was wiiiiild
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Old 11-12-2017, 03:17 AM   #44241
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Re: MMA Thread

I love this sport and I love the fighters that put into this sport. Usually when I fighter talks about retirement I think he should have retired 2 years prior... I do care about fighter safety... but when it comes to Matt Brown (my all time fav. figher) I think he still has a lot more to give.

He shouldn't fight top guys but he is the perfect gatekeeper type fighter... if you don't get him out with a body kick you are in for a fn war... which I guarantee most prospects have never faced in their careers... so should they win it's great experience and should they lose it keeps Matt Brown entertaining in the eyes of the audience. The fact is he's fought 20 times in the UFC and never had a boring fight... no one can say the same.
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Old 11-12-2017, 04:05 AM   #44242
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by Malachii View Post
I took Moraes at -110, Stewart at average price of +158, and Poirier at +105. Also have smaller bets on Guida, Ferrerra, and Brown. Agree with you that the most likely outcome is that Guida takes him down and beats him up, although Lauzon's grappling is probably the best part of his game.
5-1 +4.1 units. On a heater
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Old 11-12-2017, 05:37 AM   #44243
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Re: MMA Thread





middle kingdom time

Shang = on (tone 4, said downwards like saying stop)

Hai = sea (tone 3, word is said with sound going down then back up)

Shŕnghǎi
on sea




tip ftw:
https://itunes.apple.com/gb/app/mich...536504628?mt=8

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Old 11-13-2017, 02:08 PM   #44244
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Re: MMA Thread

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Old 11-13-2017, 11:47 PM   #44245
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Re: MMA Thread

Anybody see any spots they like on UFC Fight Night 121? I haven't gone through all the fights yet, but the lines look about right on most of these fights. I think there could maybe be some value in Bec Rawlings at -150, but that's really about it for me so far.
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Old 11-14-2017, 05:49 AM   #44246
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Re: MMA Thread

Possibly Werdum? The price is steep but he doesn't seem to be affected by age yet and he's still a top 5 HW while Tybura pretty clearly isn't there yet. Might Consider Werdum ITD -110 since it's a 5 rounder so there's a good chance it ends in a finish one way or the other. That said he did go to two decisions with Travis Browne who is pretty terrible although he wasn't that bad at the time of the first decision. I'll probably play Werdum ITD as a pick'em here though. He's finished 17 of his 22 wins, two decisions were Browne, one was Nelson who had an iron chin at the time, one was TRT Bigfoot before his chin disappeared and one was early in his career and only one of the five was a 5 rounder so given he's -3xx straight up it seems reasonable.

Matthews may not be the prospect I thought he was but he's still tempting at -147 fighting at home, his losses don't look so bad in hindsight, imo he won the Holbrook fight even though it was way closer than it had any right to be and the other losses were to Vick and Lee who it turns our are probably both top 10 fighters. Granted his only decent win was Case and that fight was competitive. He's young and SHOULD be improving though even though he's disappointed at times in his run so far. Velikovic has a nice win over Musoke, but that's his only good win. I guess it's impressive he went the distance even in a loss to Till, so the price is probably about right. I'd need to watch more of Velikovic's fights to have a better idea.

I don't see how Will Brooks loses to Nik Lentz but not super keen to lay -3xx there either due to Brooks disappointing in the UFC so far but if Lentz can't LnP him and I doubt he can then how does he win? He doesn't even really have a puncher's chance. He needs takedowns in 2 rounds against a guy who is arguably a stronger, better wrestler than he is.

Will be interesting to see how Frank Camacho goes on a full gas tank. He looked decent vs Li, but then gassed super quickly but it was a short notice fight from memory. Does anyone have any idea how good his cardio normally is? Brown isn't exactly a world beater, I think it depends if Camacho brings cardio to this fight or not.

I love Chambers but if Kassem is non-terrible she should win and is only -147. I've never seen Kassem fight though. Chambers is old and has slick submissions but thats it, I really loved her getting a UFC win over Curran but it was only because Curran has peanut fight IQ. Kassem is 4-0 granted vs nobodies but she's 22 and should be improving and Chambers is 39 and isn't going to be getting any better at this point in her career. I'll probably play Kassem here.

Not sure about Volkanovski ITD but it's a short notice fight for Young who is basically a regional guy and Volkanovski has proven he's a UFC level fighter. Seems tempting. He's finished 13 of his 15 wins, granted most against regional level fighters and Hirota who he went the distance with is tough to finish

Theodorou should decision Dan Kelly but is Dan Kelly really a +210 dog? He's so old and should lose this fight but he keeps winning as a dog in the UFC. I'll leave it for now but if he gets to +300 i'll have to fire.

I've never seen Clark fight so hard to tell, but Bec Rawlings is pretty terrible at everything other than brawling. She's also filthy bogan scum, so I hope Clark wrecks her.

Most of what i've heard of Clark is from her domestic violence case where that tattooed scumbag Ben Nguyen knocked out (Julz the Jackal) assaulted her. Since I haven't seen her fights it's hard to say how good she is. I hope she wins though because Rawlings is an embarrassment to Australia and is the only Aussie fighter i'll cheer against every time.

No bets yet, but considering Werdum and Volkanovski ITD and Brooks, Matthews, Kassem and Camacho. Will take a more detailed look later in the week I guess. Maybe Tuivasa too? He'll be way bigger than Coulter, is fighting at home and is a young undefeated prospect granted with a lack of experience, Coulter is basically a journeyman who is 35 with no good wins and at 5'11 is really short for HW and Tuivasa is a big dude.
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Old 11-14-2017, 10:05 AM   #44247
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Re: MMA Thread

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I sort of can't get over the Dalby/Till fight in taking Till seriously as a threat at 170
From memory Till looked awesome in that fight before injuring his shoulder, you might wanna rewatch it.
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Old 11-14-2017, 03:33 PM   #44248
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Possibly Werdum? The price is steep but he doesn't seem to be affected by age yet and he's still a top 5 HW while Tybura pretty clearly isn't there yet. Might Consider Werdum ITD -110 since it's a 5 rounder so there's a good chance it ends in a finish one way or the other. That said he did go to two decisions with Travis Browne who is pretty terrible although he wasn't that bad at the time of the first decision. I'll probably play Werdum ITD as a pick'em here though. He's finished 17 of his 22 wins, two decisions were Browne, one was Nelson who had an iron chin at the time, one was TRT Bigfoot before his chin disappeared and one was early in his career and only one of the five was a 5 rounder so given he's -3xx straight up it seems reasonable.

Matthews may not be the prospect I thought he was but he's still tempting at -147 fighting at home, his losses don't look so bad in hindsight, imo he won the Holbrook fight even though it was way closer than it had any right to be and the other losses were to Vick and Lee who it turns our are probably both top 10 fighters. Granted his only decent win was Case and that fight was competitive. He's young and SHOULD be improving though even though he's disappointed at times in his run so far. Velikovic has a nice win over Musoke, but that's his only good win. I guess it's impressive he went the distance even in a loss to Till, so the price is probably about right. I'd need to watch more of Velikovic's fights to have a better idea.

I don't see how Will Brooks loses to Nik Lentz but not super keen to lay -3xx there either due to Brooks disappointing in the UFC so far but if Lentz can't LnP him and I doubt he can then how does he win? He doesn't even really have a puncher's chance. He needs takedowns in 2 rounds against a guy who is arguably a stronger, better wrestler than he is.

Will be interesting to see how Frank Camacho goes on a full gas tank. He looked decent vs Li, but then gassed super quickly but it was a short notice fight from memory. Does anyone have any idea how good his cardio normally is? Brown isn't exactly a world beater, I think it depends if Camacho brings cardio to this fight or not.

I love Chambers but if Kassem is non-terrible she should win and is only -147. I've never seen Kassem fight though. Chambers is old and has slick submissions but thats it, I really loved her getting a UFC win over Curran but it was only because Curran has peanut fight IQ. Kassem is 4-0 granted vs nobodies but she's 22 and should be improving and Chambers is 39 and isn't going to be getting any better at this point in her career. I'll probably play Kassem here.

Not sure about Volkanovski ITD but it's a short notice fight for Young who is basically a regional guy and Volkanovski has proven he's a UFC level fighter. Seems tempting. He's finished 13 of his 15 wins, granted most against regional level fighters and Hirota who he went the distance with is tough to finish

Theodorou should decision Dan Kelly but is Dan Kelly really a +210 dog? He's so old and should lose this fight but he keeps winning as a dog in the UFC. I'll leave it for now but if he gets to +300 i'll have to fire.

I've never seen Clark fight so hard to tell, but Bec Rawlings is pretty terrible at everything other than brawling. She's also filthy bogan scum, so I hope Clark wrecks her.

Most of what i've heard of Clark is from her domestic violence case where that tattooed scumbag Ben Nguyen knocked out (Julz the Jackal) assaulted her. Since I haven't seen her fights it's hard to say how good she is. I hope she wins though because Rawlings is an embarrassment to Australia and is the only Aussie fighter i'll cheer against every time.

No bets yet, but considering Werdum and Volkanovski ITD and Brooks, Matthews, Kassem and Camacho. Will take a more detailed look later in the week I guess. Maybe Tuivasa too? He'll be way bigger than Coulter, is fighting at home and is a young undefeated prospect granted with a lack of experience, Coulter is basically a journeyman who is 35 with no good wins and at 5'11 is really short for HW and Tuivasa is a big dude.
I didn't know Camacho took that fight on short notice, which changes things obviously. I bet him small. He has very accurate hands and Damien Brown has a lot of bad habits that no amount of coaching is going to break. That having been said, I find it difficult to believe that Camacho is more than 60% to win given the question marks around his cardio (maybe I'm being conservative), so not super enthusiastic about him at these prices. Also think Camacho could be vulnerable to leg kicks given his stance. He has great heart though.

I don't particularly like Bec Rawlings as a person, but whatever. She was doing pretty well against PVZ until she got caught, has good coaching, and the girl she's fighting doesn't seem good at all from what little tape I've been able to watch of her. She does seem like a headcase though.

Speaking of headcases, I'm tempted to bet on Anthony Hamilton but think I'm going to pass. Could be a good "buy low" opportunity though, the guy he's fighting looks like he's never lifted a weight in his life and Anthony Hamilton is very strong. Hamilton has a glass jaw though, and he also seems like the kind of guy who psychologically always finds a way to lose, so I don't think I'm gonna bet on him.

I think Ryan Benoit is 75 to 80% to win against Ashkan Mokhtarian so I took him at -260. Benoit's a dirty fighter though, hopefully he doesn't do anything stupid and get himself DQ'd.

The Mathews one is a difficult one for me to handicap, they seem like very similar fighters. I've watched a fair amount of tape on both. I think the line is about right.

Agree with you on Dan Kelly - I'd take him at 3-1 but I think this is a no bet at current prices. Theodorou sucks but he's a good athlete and rangy. The thing that I think could be Dan Kelly's path to victory here is that Theodorou throws these ridiculous kicks from range and if someone pressures him he looks to clinch and wrestle... and Dan Kelly went to the Olympics in Judo, so presumably he'd have a big edge in the clinch. Still, I find it hard to bet on a 40 year old guy who's fighting on one leg versus a very athletic 29 year old.

So to summarize, right now I have Bec Rawlings, Ryan Benoit, and Camacho.

Last edited by Malachii; 11-14-2017 at 03:45 PM.
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Old 11-15-2017, 01:17 AM   #44249
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Re: MMA Thread

I tend to agree re: Rawlings and Benoit being the correct sides at the current prices but i'm just not going to cheer for Bec Rawlings in a fight so no matter how much value there is i'm passing. Some Aussies have to take a stand against bogan filth representing us on an international level and she seems to be a bully and a terrible person in addition to being a filthy bogan.

Looks like Brooks steamed heavily today so I should have taken it when I could, way too steep now

Has anyone seen any tape on Nadia Kassem? I've been a bit too busy to do any real research and while i'm a fan of Chambers I really want to fade her since she's 39 and she wasn't really a UFC level fighter in the first place.
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Old 11-15-2017, 03:04 PM   #44250
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Re: MMA Thread

I jut mulled over that a little.

That's a strange fight for few reasons, like just rambling but Nadia Kassem got inspired to start fighting since watching The Ultimate Fighter 18, air date for that is September 4, 2013, her record is impressive but her third opponent back in her record Belinda Sedgewick looked like crack head that had not eaten for 3 days and was 20lb under weight,


What ever you can say about Alex Chambers, she just came off going three rounds vs ms little dynamite dynamic Paige VanZant (my future girl friend btw)and lost by sub in the 3rd.

But seriously, who is this Nadia Kassem? this could be another Jason Knight (a beast) getting thrown to a top tier and then you see what is the outcome. (Jason Knight got ripped a new one).


Some thing weird about this set up, I would not make any bet until there is more information, like it would be helpful if some one can link the
Jasita Yotawan vs Nadia Kassem


Also Nadia is no underdog here, she is the -150 fav vs Chambers, you need to be having the "scoop" to bet her hard.


To really bet Nadia Kassem, and it could be a good (great) bet, we need more information.

Its a HUGE step up for her... for that step up to happen means she must be one impressive girl to see training / sparing / her technique.

Edit: also SwoopAE, your from that part of the woods she is from no? Any input from there?
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