I'm kinda hyped guys...

Added a bit more TJ +170, moves my average to like +156 or something and added a little bit more Gall too, i'd have like +104ish average or something there now, Gall TJ and OSP are all about equal 2nd biggest bets now after WB biggest.

I still haven't decided for the main event and I haven't decided who to cheer for either, i've always been the bigger Bisping fan but it would be sad if GSP joined the 'doesn't have it anymore' crowd and it's a cool comeback story so I think i'm happy either way.

Added a .5u punt on Masvidal. Mostly to have another fight on the main card to sweat, but also because Wonderboy should probably be downgraded more in terms of ability after the two Woodley fights than he has. Masvidal is a frustrating fighter, though, and him losing a split decision after having one dominant round early is reasonably likely lol.

after seeing what cody did to Dom it worries me.

like i want TJ to win, just like i want GSP to win. but both are risky. theres no easy money here and i usually can find it

lol the masvidal "punt" i dont think it is, but again wonderboy super dangerous and technically amazing, masvidal needs to make it dirty.

Want GSP, Randy Brown and Rose to win, mostly rooting against Bisping, Gall, and JJ just because I dont like them lol.

Although actually betting GSP, Brown, and got JJ at 1.27 , just don't see anyone beating JJ atm, but price is getting pretty ridic so might just arb and freeroll Rose.

Thinking about adding more on Masvidal and TJ, already got them but at around 2.25 price, so can get much better price and has to be value IMO, think both fights are really close. Same for Vick, might add a bit more on him aswell. Sick card super stoked!

TJ is tempting, but I'm not so convinced. When TJ fought Cruz they both had insane volume, but when Cody fought Cruz the volume was much lower. If TJ could make it a fight where the volume was as high as he likes, he would be a big favorite cuz no way Cody can keep that up, but like he did with Cruz I think Cody can decide the pace of the fight. The wrestling X factor is one thing, but people are saying Cody has great takedown defense and at that point I'm not sure how TJ reliably wins this fight.

Think i've finalised my bets for this card

GSP -110
TJ +186
JJ -300
Thompson -137
Duffy-162
Godbeer +300
Anderson +150
Brown +100

caught JJ line super early.

WB is great, but to be fair he is only really good at range, that is the outside range with his kicks and counters. Masvidal should be better anywhere else, if he can get in close or maybe get a takedown. Although I do think Masvidal is a bit to small, so that could make things harder in the clinch and with the wrestling. Think this is my favorite fight on the card together with TJ vs Cody.

your bets (1)

Single - Georges St-Pierre vs Michael Bisping
Georges St-Pierre - Fight Betting
Odds: 20/21
1 lines at £200.00 per line
Total Stake for this bet: £200.00
Potential Return:£390.48


Have to imagine GSP has watched all available tape on lisping, that he sees an easy mark in him and knows a solid path to victory,


bisping got kind of lucky vs rockhold, he doesn't have killer power, that was kind of a fluke punch?

Wonderboy vs Masvidal has the potential to be amazing or terrible. If Masvidal throws caution to the wind and attacks the way Brown did he's likely to get countered and knocked out but if he doesn't he could win

Fortunately the most likely 'boring' fight results in Wonderboy winning a 30-27 outstriking Masvidal at range since he doesn't have to be as scared to use his kicks in addition to his hands at range as Masvidal lacks Woodley's explosive takedowns. If he gets it to the mat sure it could be an issue for WB, but I just don't see Masvidal using a grappling-heavy gameplan he tends to fight the fight his opponent wants most of the time and if Wonderboy wants to stand and bang at range Masvidal's going to try and match him in striking technique and that makes him a substantial dog unless he can get inside Wonderboy's range. You don't get to be a 57-0 kickboxer without having better striking fundamentals than Masvidal, even if Masvidal is among the best technical strikers in the UFC - I think it's a case where Masvidal is more well rounded, but the thing he likes to do the most and is probably best at (technical striking) happens to be an area where Wonderboy is better than he is. Masvidal needs to turn it into a sloppy brawl or tire Wonderboy with clinches etc, and I don't think he has the size and power and fight IQ to do that more than about a third of the time (I have this fight's true line at about WB -200)

The great thing about this card is every fight has the potential to be competitive and both fighters have a way to win, Joanna is obv biggest fav on the card but Gadelha showed she can be taken down in the early stages and Roseis live to submit anyone if she can get a takedown. Godbeer vs Harris is at HW and Harris isn't exactly a world beater and i'm actually sort of tempted to take Godbeer at +290ish just because it's a HW fight and Harris is a 10-6 fighter. Yes, those losses are against decent HWs but his best win is still (probably) Anthony Hamilton who is let's say not good or Chase Sherman who is only a lower mid level HW. Oleinik is live to sub anyone and it's also a HW fight.

I put a tiny bet (less than 1/10th of a unit) on Zahabi and Godbeer for the sweats because if in doubt in a fight where both guys can win I figure i'll take the underdogs. Booked a friend's Vick bet so effectively have a tiny sweat on Duffy. Only fight I don't have a sweat on now is GSP/Bisping and I guess i'll decide during walk outs.

So I've ended up with:
Ramos -111
Gall +109
Anderson +140 (.5u)
Vick +140
Masvidal +159 (.5u)
GSP -115

Mostly about even with current line, except for Ramos which I got a great price on early. GL everyone.

EDIT: Cracking open a few beers. Don't really drink so hopefully I wont get too buzzed to enjoy the later fights.
EDIT 2: C'mon half a beer?! Already feeling it. feelsbadman.jpg. Hope to run better at betting.

UFC 217 Risk $4278.00

Michael Bisping (+100) vs Georges St-Pierre $300.00 for $300.00
Michael Bisping wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+310) $35.00 for $108.50
Georges St-Pierre wins by submission in round 1 (+1300) ~$28.00 for ~$364.00
Georges St-Pierre wins by submission in round 2 (+1700) ~$28.00 for ~$476.00
Michael Bisping wins in round 3 (+1400) $15.00 for $210.00
Michael Bisping wins in round 4 (+1600) $15.00 for $240.00
Michael Bisping wins in round 5 (+2800) $15.00 for $420.00
Michael Bisping/Georges St-Pierre Under 4½ (+147) $200.00 for $294.00
Michael Bisping wins by 5 round decision (+364) $100.00 for $364.00

T.J. Dillashaw (+163) vs Cody Garbrand $200.00 for $326.00
T.J. Dillashaw (+155) vs Cody Garbrandt $200.00 for $310.00
T.J. Dillashaw wins in round 4 (+2230) $15.00 for $334.50
T.J. Dillashaw wins in round 5 (+2848) $15.00 for $427.20
T.J. Dillashaw wins by submission (+800) $50.00 for $400.00
T.J. Dillashaw wins by decisions (+326) $35.00 for $114.10

Joanna Jedrzejczyk -5½ points (-280) $560.00 for $200.00
Joanna Jedrzejczyk wins by TKO/KO (+194) $50.00 for $97.00
Rose Namajunas wins by submission (+834) $50.00 for $417.00
Rose Namajunas/Joanna Jedrzejczyk Under 3½ (+179) $100.00 for $179.00

Jorge Masvidal (+160) vs Stephen Thompson $150.00 for $240.00
Jorge Masvidal scorecards = no action (+150) $100.00 for $150.00

Paulo Borrachinha wins by KO/TKO/DQ in round 1 (+171) ~$28.00 for ~$47.88
Johny Hendricks wins by KO/TKO/DQ in round 1 (+10000) ~$28.00 for ~$2800.00
Paulo Borrachinha/Johny Hendricks Under 1½ (-110) $110.00 for $100.00

Joseph Duffy (-160) vs James Vick $320.00 for $200.00
Joseph Duffy wins by TKO/KO (+265) $40.00 for $106.00
Joseph Duffy wins in round 1 (+297) $35.00 for $103.95
Joseph Duffy/James Vick Under 1½ (+130) $100.00 for $130.00

Walt Harris/Mark Godbeer Under 1½ (-150) $150.00 for $100.00

Corey Anderson (+130) vs Ovince Saint Preux $100.00 for $130.00
Corey Anderson (+125) vs Ovince Saint Preux $100.00 for $125.00
Corey Anderson/Ovince Saint Preux Over 1½ (-190) $95.00 for $50.00

Randy Brown (+110) vs Mickey Gall $200.00 for $220.00
Randy Brown (-110) vs Mickey Gall $220.00 for $200.00
Randy Brown/Mickey Gall Over 1½ (-130) $65.00 for $50.00

Aleksei Oleinik (+260) vs Curtis Blaydes $100.00 for $260.00
Aleksei Oliynyk wins by submission (+525) $50.00 for $262.50
Aleksei Oleinik wins by submission in round 1 (+1200) ~$28.00 for ~$336.00
Aleksei Oleinik wins by submission in round 1 (+1150) ~$14.00 for ~$161.00
Aleksei Oleinik wins by submission in round 2 (+1600) ~$14.00 for ~$224.00
Aleksei Oleinik wins by submission in round 3 (+2300) ~$14.00 for ~$322.00

Aiemann Zahabi (+160) vs Ricardo Ramos $100.00 for $160.00

Walt Harris wins Fastest KO (+400) $25.00 for $100.00
Aleksei Oleinik wins Fastest SUB (+850) $15.00 for $127.50
Randy Brown/Mickey Gall FOTN award winner (+1100) $10.00 for $110.00

Paulo Borrachinha wins POTN Bonus (+346) ~$14.00 for ~$48.44
Joseph Duffy wins POTN Bonus (+500) ~$14.00 for ~$70.00
Walt Harris wins POTN Bonus (+800) ~$14.00 for ~$112.00
Aleksei Oleinik wins POTN Bonus (+950) ~$14.00 for ~$126.00

That Johny Hendricks TKO/KO in Round 1 line is CRAZY

That is a pretty absurd line but some books leave crazy props out there I remember getting something like +4000 on Struve by r1 sub or tko i forget which vs some guy a while back in a pickem fight (i forget if it was sub or ko but I mean it's HW and ends in r1 nearly half the time). From memory Struve won the fight by sub.

I obv think Hendricks loses but would snap take a +10000 r1 tko prop, or any round for that matter

Looks like im on the same side as Jim on about two thirds of his picks and the opposite of about a third. GL! Have Gall, WB and OSP but have the same side of all of the others

Wow, that one looked like a pick'em fight I think Zahabi was on his way to a 29-28 but what a finish. Ramos had the first, Zahabi prob edged the second and was winning the third until elbow of death

Pretty happy with my side at +170 or whatever it was for 20 bucks, smallest bet of the card by far

Got 200 on Oleinik +300 up next I think, one of my smaller bets again but a bit more reasonable sized, hopefully he can find a random ezekiel choke or something

Fun fight to start the card, if anyone's reading the thread later and missed it make sure to catch the finish

Blaydes is a beast of a man but 40 submissions in 52 wins is one hell of an impressive stat for a HW who is +300 and it's crazy he's still been beating UFC-level guys

Anything could happen here

Regardless of outcome very happy with +300 with what we've seen so far, two closeish sub attempts and competitive standup

I think Oleinik was starting to take over until he got dropped, this might come down to cardio

10-9 Blaydes, ridiculous sloppy but entertaining round, hopefully Oleinik can ride out the storm and recover, Blaydes was looking tired until he dropped him. Can't go 10-8 despite the knockdown because it was such a close round other than that imo but couldnt fault a judge for giving one either

Only a glancing blow but they have to take a point for a kick to the head of a grounded opponent

WTF are they calling it off? Absurd if so NY have to get their **** together

Am I going to win by DQ here on a suckout? Lose by TKO? NC? Who knows

Can't be a loss surely as it connected and was a foul. No contest would be fair as it didn't land clean

this is such a weird outcome for this fight.

like the kick essentially didnt land, even if illegal it wiffed.

Even if they're stopping it based on previous damage it can't be a win surely as the fight was stopped on a clearly illegal blow that connected

Ugh, that ruling is disgusting, he just won by soccer kick. I mean it's fair in that he was winning the fight but it should have been a no contest

2/2 weird NY stoppages have gone against me (Weidman one and now this, while Weidman strike wasn't illegal in the end it also wouldn't have been stopped and should have been a NC)

Blaydes is a piece of **** saying he doesn't respect Oleinik after he just won by kicking him in the ear on the ground and he most certainly didn't look 'great' he did look better of the two but he'll get wrecked by a Mark Hunt level fighter let alone a top 3 guy

Glad I only had 200 on that if I had 1k+ i'd be pretty tilted.

rofl. HW is a joke (40 yr old man being competitive), NYSAC is a joke (always some **** like this), refs are a joke, mark ratner is a joke, joe rogan commenting on controversies is a joke.

Looks like a little bit of OSP steam moving back slightly which is nice for me

First big bet of the card up next on Gall, let's hope he's legit. I'm very high on him for a guy with 5 fights and only 1 fight against a UFC level guy (Northcutt) and he has the potential to be a superstar is his talent level can match his charisma/mic skills.

HW is ridiculous once you get below the Hunt/Lewis level guys who are gatekeepers to the elite. Can you imagine how easily Gustafsson and co from LHW would destroy these guys? So few divisions where the #4 guy from a division below would be -500 against a #9 type ranked guy one weight class up

Let's go Gall! Brown's pretty tall and lanky hopefully that works out well for me when Gall shoots for the takedown since it's easier to take down lanky fighters.

Worrying signs early. Need to find a way to top position