Got my bets sorted for this card.

James Vick at 2.5
TJ at 2.5
Bisping at an average of 2.45 (due to arbing but leaving profit on Bisping.)

Feel really good bout all of these positions. Biggest MMA bet of the year for me on Bisping. Second biggest bet of the year after Mayweather.

Also want to back Bader if I can get him around 1.33. Wish I had access to Betonline as that early price was pretty sick.

Surprised Vick is moving the way its moving. I was just gonna mention the other fight I'm kinda curious about is Anderson. I think at some point, maybe once it gets above +150, there might be some value there.

What's Anderson better at than OSP though? OSP is def the better submissions guy, he's a better physical specimen although they're both beasts

OSP is 2 weeks notice I guess but other than that, he's faced the higher level competition and while elite strikers can outstrike OSP it's not like Anderson is a high level striker (it feels weird writing that as i'm used to Anderson meaning Silva).

I mean Okami might be smaller than Anderson but he's still a wrestler and OSP ragdolled him.

Yeah, OSP has lost 5 of his last 10 but all 5 are to guys way better than Anderson and the wins over Okami and Shogun and Cummins and Krylov and going to a split with Oezdemir is better than anything Anderson's ever done.

I wouldn't back Anderson until at least +220 or something here and am super happy with the -15x I got on OSP, it's currently my second biggest bet on the card after Wonderboy. Anderson is a prospect but he's shown to be more of a #15ish type guy, whereas OSP is clearly a 5-10 range guy.

Kind of surprised Vick is as big of a dog as he is, leaving it for now but if he gets up to the +200 range and looks fine at weigh ins i'll def get on it

^ I think Anderson will just do more overall. There might be something misleading in his stats, but it looks like he has generally higher output on the feet, tries more takedowns, etc. I believe doing a lot of stuff is one of the best predictors of winning rounds. Being very close to prime physical age, and OSP getting older fast, doesn't hurt either. If either guy comes in looking a lot better it's probably Anderson.

That's a good point, I didn't realise OSP was 34 I thought he was more like 32ish. He's not old enough to have fallen off a cliff yet though which is good, this is probably his last chance to get a title shot on his current win streak. I guess i'm just not that sold on Anderson.

Added Rose/Joanna doesn't go the distance at +120 and added on a bit more Gall at evens, now that he's started steaming in i'm pretty convinced he closes as a fav.

Read some analysis about Vick vs Duffy, and how ppl think Duffy's boxing game, especially his work to the body, matches up well against Vick. This is one thing that doesn't show up in the stats so clearly, but might be more telling when watching tape.

Good luck on your Wonderboy bet Swoop. I bet him small when the line first opened but I'm nervous fading Masvidal, he's really good. Then again, so is Wonderboy. Should be a great fight.

Then again, Masvidal is the GOAT at losing split decisions in fights he should have won, so you definitely have that working in your favor :-)

Do you have a link?

^ Analysis might have been an exaggeration. It was a twitter exchange which prompted me to go look at the stats again.

Yeah I think I was wrong initially in saying that fight was a pick'em, outside of size and maybe his standing guillotine i'm not sure Vick is better at anything anymore.

Wonderboy by decision is +160 which is tempting as well as WB straight up but with how aggressive Masvidal is I think there's a decent chance WB finishes him (as well as a slim chance Masvidal catches him on the inside and finishes) so I think my straight up bet is probably the best way to do it unless the tko or decision line is misplaced when/if its released which is unlikely.

Glad I added on to Gall at evens as he's a fav now at most books; dilutes my average price to +107ish from the +114 I got initially but it's now clearly my second biggest bet after WB with OSP third.

Big steam on Ramos today. The Joanna/Rose line is getting pretty ridiculous too for a fight where the underdog does have a clear way to win (get Joanna down which Gadleha has proven is doable and submit her) - granted it's a long shot but if the line keeps drifting out towards +600 I may have to play Rose straight up or if I can get the sub line at +1000ish

Cant see this one going the distance.....


UFC Matches Anthony Pettis v Dustin Poirier
11-11-2017 13:00
Will the fight go the distance?
No @ 8/15
Your Bets
Win
Single: No @ 8/15
1 line at £100.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £100.00
Potential returns: £153.33


Pettis is great... for about 3 rds? then the cracks start to show, he is good but wont be able to take Poirier power (if he lands) also this is weight up for him (up from Featherweight to lightweight).

These two are not going to gel... its going to end inside of 4rds imo

Dustin Poirier wont let it reach to the D and Pettis will have to work any magic he has early, inside 3rds else he will get smashed up.

if the fight was a few years ago? we bank on pettis being able to hang in there for 5 full rounds.

Neither of these guys have 5rds to D more than one or two times on their whole record,

I think Pettis would be happy to edge it into 5rds but with Poirier in front of him the fights not gong to go that way, its more Poirier in the cage that makes me think the fight goes inside the distance.

One of these guys is getting ended, pettis has the movement fitness cardio to bounce around on the outside etc and skill.. but not for full 5 rds, last I checked its a given he is on the way out past his best efforts to get back... not going to happen and Poirier power will mean a lot, Poirier is also still kind of getting better (but not by much?)

what ever, I like the bet.

PFL 3: Fight Night Risk $751.00

Blagoy Ivanov (-301) vs Caio Alencar $301.00 for $100.00
Mike Kyle/Daniel Gallemore Under 1½ (-150) $75.00 for $50.00

Parlays:

Lance Palmer (-400) vs Steven Siler + Blagoy Ivanov (-305) vs Caio Alencar $200.00 for $131.97

Timur Valiev (-339) vs Josenaldo Silva + Lance Palmer (-385) vs Steven Siler + Blagoy Ivanov (-385) vs Caio Alencar ~$175.00 for ~$184.64

Was going to take Borrachinha ITD but I got -208 on a square local book for 1k so decided to take him straight up instead because it's a big arb vs everywhere so cant be too bad

Borrachinha -208
OSP -154ish average
Wonderboy -145ish average
Rose/JJ doesn't go the distance +120
Oleinik +300
Gall +107ish average
Dillashaw +149

Pretty happy with what I have so far, Wonderboy still the biggest bet by a decent margin. Looks like a bit of money's come in on Anderson but overall my positions are doing reasonably well, slightly behind current line on OSP and TJ, evenish on the womens fight and ahead on the rest

All 24 fighters made weight (UFC 217)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fA_OTz1tnqc

Hendricks making weight makes my Borrachinha bet slightly worse because obviously Hendricks is at least going to try but Borrachinha is young and improving and has deadly KO power, Hendricks is old and declining with a fading chin and clearly off roids whereas if Borrachinha isn't roiding he's got amazing genetics. I think Hendricks gets knocked out of relevance for good in this fight.

TJ out to +165 on 5dimes now if he gets much higher i'll have to add on for a fight I think is close to a flip

Interesting that Vick's moved back in a bit now after early Duffy steam, I think i'm going to leave that one alone

Just MMA things... http://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-statement-on-Ion-Cutelaba

damn would have been decent fight, at least its not one of the biggies tho.

Could still get Anderson at +140 at bet365, so put half a unit on that since I originally liked that side of the line and its been moving closer on pinny.

Bellator 186 Risk $920.00

Ilima-Lei Macfarlane (-295) vs Emily Ducote $295.00 for $100.00
Ilima-Lei Macfarlane -5½ points (-125) $125.00 for $100.00
Zach Freeman (+185) vs Saad Awad $100.00 for $185.00

Parlays:
Phil Davis (-610) vs Leo Leite + Ryan Bader (-325) vs Linton Vassell $195.00 for $101.80
Phil Davis (-625) vs Leo Leite + Ryan Bader (-345) vs Linton Vassell $205.00 for $101.73


LFA 26 Risk $857.00

Richard Odoms (-150) vs Jeff Hughes $150.00 for $100.00
Larry Crowe (+162) vs Bilal Williams ~$70.00 for ~$113.40
Larry Crowe (-110) vs Bilal Williams $121.00 for $110.00
Westin Wilson (+200) vs Charles Cheeks III $100.00 for $200.00
Itzel Esquivel (+120) vs Nicole Caliari ~$91.00 for ~$109.20
Itzel Esquivel (-150) vs Nicole Caliari $225.00 for $150.00
Brice Ritani-Coe (+200) vs Juan Adams $100.00 for $200.00

Yeah that and the TJ fight are the 2 im behind current line; I still like both sides but more so on the TJ price as hes still a reasonable dog at the line I got

I do still think OSP is the fav but obv concerning it's moved against me. Hopefully he can continue to make the case to rename the Von Flue choke the OSP choke.

Interesting that Duffy has re-steamed after the initial big steam followed by Vick moving back in

Not liking that the womens fight to not go distance is out to +135 now either, decent movement against Joanna TKO and obv that and Rose SUB are the 2 most likely ways the fight ends ITD

^ I'm in slightly bad on GSP and Vick at this point, slightly good on Gall and Anderson, and really good on Ramos

https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2017/11/...prise-mma-news

Hendricks looks better than the last few times but his mental state after that ramble? He expected to miss weight but made it. I'm starting to doubt he's all there upstairs

Also if anyone missed it Cody went and said that TJ 'taught him and TAM how to do steroids' then quickly backpedaled it and also there was a hilarious exchange at the media thing where Cody yelled 'how many times did I beat you up in the gym' at TJ, TJ replied 'zero times' and Cody yelled 'thats right' at him as if he 'got him good'. I really, really hope TJ crushes Cody NoDad/Necktat tomorrow

I can't wait for tomorrow's card, had a rough week in betting so hopefully tomorrow gets me back on track

Might end up adding a bit more on TJ or Gall but otherwise I think i'm done for the card unless someone steams heavily and I catch an offmarket price on a fight I dont have a bet on yet

Also lol @ every card loses at least one fight lately but at least it's one of the least important fights on the card. 217 is the best card we've had in a while, let's hope it delivers

TJ at +170 seems like insane value.

Why?