Close r1, Covington landed more but Maia landed better quality and cut him

Let's go Maia! Could be 10-9 either way after one

Maia early, hope that Covington didnt steal late in the round. Also, that leg is getting chewed up

leg chewed up. gassing. not getting the takedowns hes trying for. im pessimistic.

Maia should learn some flying kicks then flop to his back Ryan Hall style after each kick

Not looking as promising now I hope Maia won r1 and manages to get a TD in 3.

Sigh GG us Maia backers I feel

I have it 19-19, think Maia won the first esp in Brazil but he's tired going to need a second wind. He did win 1/3 vs Masvidal from memory tho

Covington def fav atm tho

I actually think Maia should strike and go after his eye in the third unless the opportunity presents itself

@SwoopAE... most definitely need a take-down!

Covington is going to get wrecked when he fights a striker with elite TDD

Maia blew his cardio on TD attempts in r2, came so close to getting one but it was not to be

@sickreadtwenty3 thanks for the jinx bro T_T

Jeez. Colby Covington riling the crowd as he has to have stewards/security guards shield him from debris thrown from the audience as he quickly scoots away back to the dressing room.

Nice work by Covington, he's such a tool, i'm not sure it's all an act to sell heel tickets either

I hope he gets someone like Lawler/Masvidal/Wonderboy next. Good luck with that Covington. His wrestling may be the best in the division but if Maia can tag him up standing a specialist striker with TDD will wreck him.

Doubled down on Machida TKO/DEC +187 (on 365 if anyone wants it vs his ML)

If Machida wins by submission somehow i'll lose for the card but be happy for him. I don't expect him to attempt any subs though.

I'm almost exactly even to the dollar after the Maia loss, lost on Maia/Price/Lineker r1 and won on Santos/Golm

Let's go Machida!

Such an interesting fight given Machida's long layoff, but if he's still close to his prime it's such a good stylistic matchup for him against a guy who leads with his chin

Yuck, should have taken the under instead.

Makes me sad that Machida is done. I don't want to see him get knocked out any more I thought he'd win this one

Lost about one bet for the card. Should have hedged with Brunson wins in r1.

Wish I went harder on Brunson, it seemed like an obvious easy win but the lack of people betting it put me off a bit.

Sad about Maia, his career is basically done now, one of my favourite fighters. I had the +140 too.

Colvington won't get Woodley yet, not that I can see him winning it anyway. Colvington vs Till would be interesting.

Don't see a lot of value in 207, but obviously looking forward to it as a fan.

I'm probably just going to go hard on Wonderboy for 207 then just small bets

I think I need to accept that all of my favourite fighters from when I got into MMA are past their primes and will never be as good as they were in 2010 etc although on paper it's such a good matchup for Machida. His chin seems to be totally shot though, granted he's fighting guys with a lot of power.

If Maia and Machida keep fighting I hope they give them both a step down in competition now as their title aspirations are done so let them fight fringe 15-20 guys looking to break into the top 15.

-4.2u. Think its time to retire this pos model while its still barely in the black.

I think the age is less of a factor for Maia than Machida, doesn't rely on power or anything flashy, Maia's BJJ technique will stay at the elite level as long as he competes (This also applies for Werdum IMO). Maia will still beat a lot of fighters, he so desperately wanted to win a title throughout his career though.

Machida can not only not compete physically at his age, he may never really have been able to without PEDs? UFC competition overall is much higher than back in the day, also a worry for GSP return.

I had Maia and Machida... Next week I have Bisping and Wonderboy. Those are my four 'freeroll' degen bets lol, feeling good on Wonderboy though.

What were the odds of Covington getting stabbed if his post fight was translated

Went 2-1 +2.5 units.

Dillashaw is up to +150, insane.

Yeah really liking those odds on TJ.

Yeah i'm definitely going to get on TJ once it hits the top of wherever it's going up to. Casuals probably comparing the Cruz fight results, I think this one is closer to a pick'em I guess it all just depends on whether Cody had the fight of his life vs Cruz and Cruz's body is wrecked or if he's actually on another level skillwise.

I have 2.4k on Wonderboy now which is my biggest MMA bet in a while, 1900 of it at -143 and 500 at -152, definitely going to be my biggest bet for 217. I expect to have a small Rose sub prop and/or Joanna by TKO in rounds 3-5 type bet or maybe a fight doesn't go the distance prop, Borrachinha by TKO or ITD, Dillashaw and i'm going to wait for the weigh ins for Bisping/GSP

On the prelims i'll take OSP if he's bettable, same with Gall even though i'm not sure he will be as the 'bigger' name. Will be interesting to find out if Gall is actually a legit prospect here or if he's just looked good due to fighting cans.

Vick vs Duffy is a tough one if either guy is a significant underdog i'll take him, i'm pretty high on both of them. If I end up considering Duffy side i'll wait until after weigh ins as Vick is always huge.

Hard to know what to make of Blaydes vs Oleinik, Blaydes is obviously the better physical specimen but he's still relatively green and Oleinik can tap anyone below the elite level if he gets into grappling exchanges. Another spot where i'd consider either guy as a decent dog.

Odds Borrachinha tests positive for something after the fight? Out of all of the guys in the UFC who haven't tested positive he fails the eye test the most. Amusing he's fighting Hendricks who was obviously roiding pre-USADA and has looked clean since.

Looks like Joanna/Rose not to go the distance is +105 and I said i'd get on at evens or better so I might hit that as well once it opens at a few more books I can get on at

Just saw TJ by TKO/KO/DQ at +760 on 5d as well I might have to get some BTC to get on that as well in a 5 rounder if it doesnt open at a similar line elsewhere

Pinny preliminary lines out. I hit osp -152 oleinik +300, gall +114 and dillashaw +149 to go with my wb -145ish average. Wb still my biggest bet. Was leaning blades but oleinik price is way too high. Def think osp closes -200. I expect gall closes a small favourite too and oleinik should be more like +150 to +200 in hindsight blades is Def the favourite but nowhere near current line imo. Also think wb is -200 vs masvidal

Going to take rose jj doesn't go distance for sure, probably borrachinha itd, maybe gsp if he doesn't look bad or small at weigh ins. Considering Vick as a small dog too but might pass unless size difference is even bigger than I expect

Oleinik is tempting, but the dudes 40!!! At any rate, with the model binned I've done some non model analysis and come up with:

Ramos -111
Gall +109
Vick +140
GSP -115

Regretting not just taking Joanna while the price was better.