Not to derail too much, but from what I've seen most things have limits at around $300, but these are ****ty random matches happening throughout every day, giving you an opportunity to put down an MMA card worth of bets every day. Bigger matches seem to be limited to around $2500, while the biggest matches I expect go higher.

That leads me to a question I've wondered about: how do limits work? Say an MMA fight has a limit of $1000, and I place a $1000 bet. Can I place a second $1000 bet after the line absorbs my initial bet? What if I bet $500 when the limit was $500 and the limit goes up to $1000, can I now bet $1000 or $500?

The CSGO majors etc have five figure limits on Pinny and big Dota2 stuff like the International goes five figs. Random games more like 250-1k range depending what league it is etc.

@Maglame on books like Pinny you can rebet immediately but the line will have moved off your max bet, eg if you bet 1k @ -110 you might then get then next 1k @ -113 then the next 1k @ -116 and so on. Some of the small local books that ban winners won't let you rebet at all, but the big ones like Pinny/Cris etc you can just max bet.

On some books that dont welcome winners like b365 and uni you usually can't fire again once you've maxbet automatically it has to go to manual approval and will get rejected unless you're not beating the pinny/exchange etc prices.

This is a great card for betting. I made a big bet on Trinaldo. Love him at -180, he's old but he's f*cking good and he's a terrible matchup for Jim Miller.

So, so far I have:
Maia at +140 (line has since moved)
Brunson at -170
Trinaldo at -180 (biggest bet.)

I'm a Machida fanboy too btw. But I like money more, and Derek Brunson is a monster, Machida is old, and he's coming off a PED suspension. That having been said, Machida probably has at least 30-35% winning chances just due to his intelligence, counter punching ability and craftiness.

Worth noting Machida's 'PED' suspension was for a substance he disclosed himself that from memory was in a supplement, not actually popping for PEDs, widely believed he got screwed by USADA etc. not saying he never used but there's no proof he took PEDs and is going to experience a drop off.

He's still old, but stylistically it's a good matchup for him. I think the odds are about right, Brunson certainly can't rush in like he did against Whittaker etc but I agree he's scary good and better than his record. Careless strikers don't tend to do well against Machida though. Just depends whether he's fallen off that age/layoff cliff or not, he's still never lost to a non top 5 fighter and Brunson is the definition of a 'top 10 but not top 5' guy. Very offensively talented but with defensive holes and questionable fight IQ.

Yeah I think that's well said, I personally think there's maybe a 5 - 10% edge in betting on Brunson at -170 but it's impossible to precisely quantify these things, so who knows. Either way, I agree with you the line is probably more or less correct.

Machida is one of my all time favs. He really changed the way people used at distance when he came into the UFC.

That said he is past his peak but style wise if a tough match up for Brunson. Think I like the Machida line then more then Brunson but probably a miss for me.

Maia and Marshman look like decent bets from first glance.

Def not taking Carlos at the current line and agree Marshman might be a bet but waiting for now

Took Price +130 (I expected him to open -120 or so) and made a small Santos play at +120 because I think it's a pickem

I think Price is my fav bet so far followed by Maia then Santos less so but narrowly enough to bet

Still considering Lineker ITD once more lines released, Trinaldo and Machida but haven't pulled the trigger on any of them yet. If the Machida price keeps rising i'll def get on and if the Trinaldo price keeps getting shorter i'll pass on it.

Brunson by decision at +600 is ridiculous value.

Jim is five years younger than Trinaldo

Holy **** I can't believe Trinaldo is 39 and Miller is only 34. I could have sworn Miller was older. I thought Miller was like 37 and Trinaldo was like 33

Glad I didn't take Trinaldo now even though he's steamed in a bunch. Will just leave it alone.

I kind of want to add more Price at +130, I have 1.5k on Maia +130, 1k on Price +130 and 800ish on Santos +120 so far but I think Price may be the best bet, going to prob put 500ish on Machida maybe just before weigh ins hoping to get +160 or better but will take +140 or better if need be. I think most people will expect Brunson to be way bigger than him when he'll only be slightly bigger but Machida is actually slightly taller, although Brunson has more reach.

Going to wait to see props for Lineker/Vera, might go Lineker ITD or might take Lineker wins in r1 or something or could just leave it depending where prices are. I think it's too big a step up for Vera and i'm not as high on Lineker as most having faded him a lot.

I'm still not sure why Price is a dog tbh outside of the fight being in Brazil he should be my biggest bet and I may end up adding on there. Does anyone think short notice Luque is a play and if so why? I'm curious to see the other side.

Bisping into 2.0 with Pinny and 5dimes. Still 2.2 with quite a few Euro bookies.
Just piled on as I think I will be able to get a decent arb as we get closer to fight time.

I like Jim in this spot. All world chin and cardio. The one KO loss on a head kick from Cerrone that he didn't see. Even then he didn't go totally lights out.

I think Trinaldo will fade and I'm not sure he'll out work Jim even in the early going. Poirier barely edged Jim. Pettis beat him with technique, not volume. I don't think Trinaldo, even in Brazil, brings what those two bring. Never mind Jim having a massive edge if it hits the ground.

Huge Covington steam so I got cashed out of my Maia bet for a small loss because for some reason the EV on that was better than keeping it, will re-bet Maia late I guess or if he moves back in. I'm actually thinking about betting a Maia by SUB prop too as I think that's the only way he wins, i'm expecting a Maia sub or lopsided Covington DEC. I guess Maia could win a dec too but if he gets onto Covington's neck or back I think he gets the tap and if he doesn't he won't win the decision anyway.

Back to just being on Price and Santos for now, i'll probably get on Machida and Maia late but the general steam seems to be against both now after early money on Maia

I should have loaded up on Price hard when he was +130, annoyed I only have a medium sized bet there I still like the current price but feel reluctant to add more at worse price than I got.

I do think I like Maia at the +150 to +160 range but will wait to see where the Covington steam stops. I'm really tempted to get on Covington dec + Maia sub, feels like those are by far the two most likely outcomes with very slim chances at Covington KO and Maia dec.

Got some Wonderboy -143 at a local book to go with the -150ish I have and added some more on Price at +120 to go with the +130 I already have

This Covington steam seems crazy to me. Maia sick or something?

Going to wait for weigh ins I guess see what shape Maia is in and see what happens with the steam.

I mean Covington does have great wrestling and the better striking and could replicate what Woodley did but if Maia gets his neck or back it's game over; I was originally going to wait on both Maia and Machida to take them late but the early Maia steam had me hit prematurely, at least i got rid of it for $100 or so and will re-bet it later or find a prop

Doing what Woodley did might lose the decision in Brazil.

Covington has good wrestling but he's taller and doesn't have Woodley's power or physical strength. Woodley was a nightmare matchup for Maia because of his strength and athleticism, low center of gravity, and knockout power. Even with all of that, Maia almost got him down except Woodley cheated by grabbing the fence and got away with it.

What's interesting about this fight is that Covington basically fights the same fight every time: He looks for opportunities to wrestle and then either beats a guy up against the cage or takes him down and looks to beat him up using GnP.

That won't work against Maia, so instead he'll need to try to strike with him and use his wrestling defensively to try to keep Maia from taking him down. So, basically, for the first time in his career he's going to need to fight differently than his usual MO. That could result in a mistake.

Keep in mind that Maia beat Chael Sonnen at middleweight. Granted that was a much younger Maia, but he's had success against a guy with a very similar skill set as Covington.

I just fired hard on Bisping and Wonderboy, and nearly instantly my only friend into MMA asked about the fights next weekend. I told him about my bets, and he said he's on the complete other side for both. He thinks GSP runs through Bisping and straight wrestle ****s him lol... we will see. Got a $100 personal bet with him on Bisping and Wonderboy as well.

I believe Maia to be better now compared to then. Some decline due to the years, but very little damage taken. I think his cardio has improved. I know his stand up has. He's is still the very best ground fighter in the sport (IMO).

The way Covington outwrestled DHK with such ease scares me a bit but Maia is an entirely different type of grappler in that clinching with him is a super bad idea and Covington has to implement an entirely different gameplan, basically the gameplan Woodley used

I think a lot comes down to how much does Maia still want it after what was probably his last title shot. He's such a professional though he should want to put on a good performance at home.

I'm hoping b365 put out a Maia sub/dec line they misprice those pretty often so might end up getting +187 or something if they mess it up given that's basically the same thing as a straight up Maia bet in this case - same for Covington by TKO/DEC if they mess that one up price wise compared to the moneyline as he's obviously not going to be trying to submit Maia, his obvious gameplan to win is do what Woodley did with the alternative being take Maia down and don't get submitted from top position or swept for 3 rounds.

I'd actually love to see the fight play out in the second way just because it's been so long since we saw anyone try and take Maia down (which he'd almost certainly be able to do) and try and beat him up from top position while not getting submitted.

Covington is the ultimate boring fighter though (like Woodley but with even less charisma and power) so he'll probably refuse to engage, land the odd shot from the outside and try and stuff Maia's takedowns and force Maia to be the aggressor and try and latch on to him

I'd love to see Maia humiliate him by beating him in a similar manner to Condit though, there aren't many natural heels it feels good to hate in the UFC right now and Covington is just that guy you want to see get beaten up.

Prior to the DHK fight i'd have gone huge on Maia here, as it stands i'll probably end up going small. I'm annoyed the huge steam on Covington led to me getting rid of my original Maia +130 now because I got scared Maia was injured or something but now that it's steamed back i'm guessing it was just one big trader or syndicate taking a big Covington position while another has taken Maia explaining the contrasting steam, or maybe there was a rumour that something was wrong with Maia that turned out to be incorrect or something.

I'm actually getting pretty excited about this card for a fight night.

CES MMA 46 Risk $480.00

John Howard (-476) vs Roger Carroll ~$300.00 for ~$63.03
Gary Balleto Jr. (-241) vs Sharif Jones ~$180.00 for ~$89.33

Added 600 on Machida by TKO/DEC +187. He hasn't had a submission since Sokodjou in 2007 and the only way he's going to win this fight by submission is if he gets taken down and gets a triangle from the bottom otherwise he's just going to be working his way back to his feet etc

I expect that either fighter could win by TKO or DEC but a sub seems very unlikely.

Hoping to get a similar prop on the Maia fight, Maia by sub or dec at +175 or better would be cool and if Covington by tko or dec is like +125 I may just smash both sides hard to fade the maia tko and covington sub

On Price +130 and +120 (average of about +127ish I think), Santos +120, Machida TKO or DEC +187 so far. Annoyed I got rid of my Maia bet but hopefully 365 released the sub or dec prop.

Nothing else standing out as must bet but if the Marshman and Miller lines climb much further I may have to play them despite liking their opponents to win. Lineker ITD prop not good enough to hit unfortunately at -13x i'd have taken evens but not laying a price on it.

Maia looks decently bigger than Covington at weigh ins, I expected them to be about the same size. Just going to wait and see if there's a wins by sub or dec prop and if not take Maia straight up I guess.

Machida/Brunson looked about as expected, Brunson def looks more powerful and athletic but that was expected and Machida looks decent and they're similar sizes. Hopefully Brunson gets Badered if he rushes in like he has a tendency to.

Santos and Price both looked pretty good. Price has the crazy eyes.