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Old 10-12-2017, 05:54 PM   #43926
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
... Wonderboy vs Masvidal which is probably for the next shot at the belt after Lawler.
Lawler will fight RDA (December 16)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_on..._vs._dos_Anjos
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Old 10-13-2017, 02:30 AM   #43927
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Re: MMA Thread

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I don't think the UFC will ever pay for "emergency" fighters to go through a full training camp and weight cut and everything with no guarantee of actually fighting. Which is why they seem to prefer booking fights in the same weight class as a main event or other important fight on the undercard, where they can pull one of those fighters into a main card fight if required (like they did with Walt Harris this weekend).

Another pretty clear recent one was having Ozedemir v Manuwa on the same card as Cormier-Jones (even though he lost his actual fight that night, you've gotta figure Manuwa was the one they would have gotten to fill in).
Yeah that's how they do it mostly indeed, and it works for saving the 'bigger' fight and sacrificing the 'smaller' fight. But they still often need to pay the guy who is left without a fight. Goodbeer got paid since Hariss decided to fight Werdum. Ozedemir would also get a paycheck if Manuwa needed to step up for DC or Jones. So don't really think its about the money.
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Old 10-13-2017, 02:38 AM   #43928
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Re: MMA Thread

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Feel pretty confident that no one will dropout with the exception of Cody vs TJ.
Yes don't expect any dropout, especially not from champions defending the belt. Since its expected to be a huge PPV and champions getting a cut. So yeah Bisping doesn't want to miss out on that huge payday. So where they normally might pull out, I think they will push the envelope a bit harder on this one.

Might be a consideration in bets? might be a small factor to take into consideration regarding Cody vs TJ, Cody having back issues and maybe still deciding to take the fight with some issues bc of him not wanting to miss out on the huge payday. I'm sure Bisping will show up almost regardless of what happens, I really do think he would show up with a broken finger, or bruised rib, to cash in on the huge payday at end of his career.
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Old 10-13-2017, 05:33 AM   #43929
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Re: MMA Thread

I'll be taking TJ partially because i'm a fan and strongly dislike Cody and partially because I think he'll probably match up better than Cruz did against Cody despite being a similar level fighter + unknown whether Cody's back is 100% plus he's a small dog. I think the odds are about right on the surface.

Definitely taking Wonderboy because he's a striking specialist against an aggressive but less technical striker. I'd take him against any of Condit/Lawler etc as well for the same reason. Should be an amazing fight if Masvidal is aggressive and presses the action the way Brown did back when he was green and Wonderboy hits him with hard counters.

GSP/Bisping all depends on the size if they're at all similar size i'll be on GSP and if Bisping dwarfs him i'll probably take Bisping. GSP not being at a reach disadvantage is making me lean GSP on skillset even with the layoff it just depends how big the size disadvantage is. Worth remembering Hendricks was almost certainly roided against GSP. A lot will depend on whether GSP has been clean his entire career or not. If he has, I think he wins. If not and he's clean now then i'd snap take Bisping.

Joanna/Rose is a tough one, I may take a stab at Rose by submission or Joanna in the later rounds or minus the points or something. Hard to say when lines aren't out yet. Might take the under if price is appealing enough too, Rose is probably more breakable than at least 3 of Joanna's last 4 opponents in her decision streak and if Rose wins it's very likely to be by finish (sub) too. Seems like a pretty clear case of 'can Rose take Joanna down and submit her early through strength and technique before Joanna starts to rack up rounds and damage on the feet'. Gadelha did get Joanna down early, if Rose does she's live to get the sub. If she doesn't she's obviously drawing pretty close to dead in the standup even though her standup is good.'

Hoping to get Mickey Gall at a good price too, he'll probably be over-priced as the bigger name in the fight but if he's not i'm a believer in the hype to some extent even though he's obviously very green.

It'll be interesting to see how many buys the biggest non-Conor card they can put together will do. I'm guessing something like 700k? It'll be interesting to see it could be anything from 500k-1m

Last edited by SwoopAE; 10-13-2017 at 05:42 AM.
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Old 10-13-2017, 05:46 AM   #43930
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Re: MMA Thread

So far I'm on TJ and Masvidal and strongly considering GSP. I think Chael said it, yes Bisping might be bigger, but GSP will be stronger. I think GSP will get the takedown at least a few rounds and even if he cant hold him down long, I think he will just steal rounds that way. Think it will be quite close on the feet, but GSP just mixes it up so good with his TDs

BTW there already some lines for JJ vs Rose, I think it was 1.25 for JJ to win.
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Old 10-13-2017, 02:03 PM   #43931
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by CheckN0rris View Post
So far I'm on TJ and Masvidal and strongly considering GSP. I think Chael said it, yes Bisping might be bigger, but GSP will be stronger. I think GSP will get the takedown at least a few rounds and even if he cant hold him down long, I think he will just steal rounds that way. Think it will be quite close on the feet, but GSP just mixes it up so good with his TDs

BTW there already some lines for JJ vs Rose, I think it was 1.25 for JJ to win.
Ring rust is very real and GSP has a significantly smaller frame than Michael Bisping. Bisping is a very big man who formerly competed at light heavyweight. There is no way that GSP could ever compete at light heavyweight. We also don't have any evidence that GSP will be stronger than Bisping, that is pure conjecture on Sonnen's part.

Also, Chael Sonnen is an idiot - I loved him as a fighter, but the guy is worse than useless as a fight prognosticator. You could probably make money just from fading his picks.

That having been said, I do think that GSP has more of a chance than other people in this thread are giving him credit for. I said this in another post, but the thing I keep coming back to is GSP is an extremely smart guy and he wouldn't be taking this fight if he didn't think he could win. The guy does his homework, could have picked basically anyone to fight against, and he picked Bisping. That should tell us something.

On the other hand, the size difference is real, as is the ring rust. 4 years is a LONG time. Tim Kennedy had only been off for about 15 months, and he looked absolutely horrible against Gastelum. We don't know how different GSP is going to look, but there's no way he's going to be as good as he used to be.
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Old 10-13-2017, 04:18 PM   #43932
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Re: MMA Thread

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Also, Chael Sonnen is an idiot - I loved him as a fighter, but the guy is worse than useless as a fight prognosticator. You could probably make money just from fading his picks.
Yeah, and it seems like you can't really trust that fighter's picks are even honest (let alone sharp). If they were sincere picks, we would see a lot more fighters picking against their friends, former teammates, etc.
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Old 10-13-2017, 06:25 PM   #43933
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Re: MMA Thread

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Lawler will fight RDA (December 16)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_on..._vs._dos_Anjos
Also, Aldo/Lamas 2, Teixeira/Cirkunov, and Perry/Ponzinibbio
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Old 10-13-2017, 08:23 PM   #43934
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Re: MMA Thread

If we keep fading Dern at huge odds, one of these days she'll lose, right?

LFA 24 Risk $458.13

Matthew Frincu (-155) vs Curtis Millender $155.00 for $100.00

Mandy Polk (+925) vs Mackenzie Dern $50.00 for $462.50
Mandy Polk/Mackenzie Dern does not start round 3 (-177) ~$213.75 for ~$120.76

Nick Chasteen (+292) vs Keoni Diggs ~$39.38 for ~$114.99
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Old 10-14-2017, 04:12 AM   #43935
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by Malachii View Post
Ring rust is very real and GSP has a significantly smaller frame than Michael Bisping. Bisping is a very big man who formerly competed at light heavyweight. There is no way that GSP could ever compete at light heavyweight. We also don't have any evidence that GSP will be stronger than Bisping, that is pure conjecture on Sonnen's part.

Also, Chael Sonnen is an idiot - I loved him as a fighter, but the guy is worse than useless as a fight prognosticator. You could probably make money just from fading his picks.

That having been said, I do think that GSP has more of a chance than other people in this thread are giving him credit for. I said this in another post, but the thing I keep coming back to is GSP is an extremely smart guy and he wouldn't be taking this fight if he didn't think he could win. The guy does his homework, could have picked basically anyone to fight against, and he picked Bisping. That should tell us something.

On the other hand, the size difference is real, as is the ring rust. 4 years is a LONG time. Tim Kennedy had only been off for about 15 months, and he looked absolutely horrible against Gastelum. We don't know how different GSP is going to look, but there's no way he's going to be as good as he used to be.
Yes sure Bisping is bigger and obv has a bigger frame, I'm just saying it might be the case that GSP is stronger, I'm pretty sure he is able to lift more weight in the gym, if we want to define stronger by that route, ofc that is not so relevant in a MMA fight. But bigger and stronger are not the same.

Agree with GSP being intelligent and having a high fight IQ and I think that will help in defeating 'ring rust', I think GSP is that type of fighter that will less likely be affected by ring rust than other fighters the same is true for Cruz who is another intelligent guy with a high fight IQ. IMO ring rust is not so real as you state it is, it a vague term and I think preparation and fight IQ is key to battle that.

Also size, ring rust and layoff and the other unknowns are already quite heavily priced in the odds IMO, if not GSP would have been a way bigger favorite.

But on other hand lot of people make the mistake of underestimating Bisping and his insane cardio and heart, so maybe GSP did the same. Haven't placed a bet myself, but leaning GSP for sure, and think current odds might be the best line we going to see.
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Old 10-14-2017, 04:27 AM   #43936
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Re: MMA Thread

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Yeah, and it seems like you can't really trust that fighter's picks are even honest (let alone sharp). If they were sincere picks, we would see a lot more fighters picking against their friends, former teammates, etc.
Totally agree, and I have no idea who Chael is picking in this fight and don't really care, just thought it was interesting statement by him saying that Bisping is bigger but GSP is stronger and I think he is correct on that one. Reminds me of when he said that Mayweather hits harder than Conor.
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Old 10-14-2017, 08:22 AM   #43937
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by CheckN0rris View Post
Yes don't expect any dropout, especially not from champions defending the belt. Since its expected to be a huge PPV and champions getting a cut. So yeah Bisping doesn't want to miss out on that huge payday. So where they normally might pull out, I think they will push the envelope a bit harder on this one.

Might be a consideration in bets? might be a small factor to take into consideration regarding Cody vs TJ, Cody having back issues and maybe still deciding to take the fight with some issues bc of him not wanting to miss out on the huge payday. I'm sure Bisping will show up almost regardless of what happens, I really do think he would show up with a broken finger, or bruised rib, to cash in on the huge payday at end of his career.
Yeah, especially since a broken finger isn't as bad for striking as it is for wrestling / grappling (I assume, since you can kinda ignore pain, but prolly feel less inclined to punch, when punching but broken finger takes a lot away in terms of grip strength?).
Also agree, if we get rumors that Cody has back issues, might be worth to bet TJ since I reckon this fight will be close.
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Old 10-14-2017, 11:18 PM   #43938
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by Malachii View Post
Ring rust is very real and GSP has a significantly smaller frame than Michael Bisping. Bisping is a very big man who formerly competed at light heavyweight. There is no way that GSP could ever compete at light heavyweight. We also don't have any evidence that GSP will be stronger than Bisping, that is pure conjecture on Sonnen's part.

Also, Chael Sonnen is an idiot - I loved him as a fighter, but the guy is worse than useless as a fight prognosticator. You could probably make money just from fading his picks.

That having been said, I do think that GSP has more of a chance than other people in this thread are giving him credit for. I said this in another post, but the thing I keep coming back to is GSP is an extremely smart guy and he wouldn't be taking this fight if he didn't think he could win. The guy does his homework, could have picked basically anyone to fight against, and he picked Bisping. That should tell us something.

On the other hand, the size difference is real, as is the ring rust. 4 years is a LONG time. Tim Kennedy had only been off for about 15 months, and he looked absolutely horrible against Gastelum. We don't know how different GSP is going to look, but there's no way he's going to be as good as he used to be.
Ive heard Chael admit many times he is not great at predicting fight outcomes, but ease up on the idiot talk. I think he analyzes fights quite well, he just is clueless when factoring mathematical value. In terms of talking about fighter strenghth who better to evaluate then a guy who fought bisping and took him down multiple times?
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Old 10-15-2017, 03:32 AM   #43939
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Re: MMA Thread

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Ive heard Chael admit many times he is not great at predicting fight outcomes, but ease up on the idiot talk. I think he analyzes fights quite well, he just is clueless when factoring mathematical value. In terms of talking about fighter strenghth who better to evaluate then a guy who fought bisping and took him down multiple times?
The issue I have with Chael is the guy is a serial liar and his whole goal is to be entertaining, so he'll say wild and outlandish **** that he doesn't even necessarily believe in order to try to get attention. That having been said, I've only listened to a couple episodes so if you think there's value in him you could be right, I just don't put any stock in what he says because I don't trust him to be honest. The guy I really like is Ray Longo, but it's tough to find interviews with him where he's breaking down fights.

Incidentally, does anyone have any thoughts on the upcoming UFC Card? I'm looking forward to Cowboy vs Till but the line looks about right, Till is probably the better striker but Cowboy is more well rounded and I think if he can get Till down he wins by submission a lot, he's got a very underrated ground game. Any matchups you guys like?
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Old 10-15-2017, 12:57 PM   #43940
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Re: MMA Thread

There's a difference between the likes of Firas Zahabi, Ray Longo, Greg Jackson and Chael Sonnen. The former are actual confirmed top notch instructors who try to be as objective as possible and present their "scientific" breakdown of a fight, whereas Chael Sonnen tries to mix in controversial elements into his breakdown to make him stand out, since he is a showman first.

But you have to admire his honesty in all of this, he's said his predictions suck and that he attempts to be a showman in order to sell more fights, get people to tune in. So he's not delusional in that way and I think if you don't swallow all of the statements he makes, but rather try to pick out the reasonable parts, there's something to be gotten from his talks. I do think he over does it too often and it can become quite cumbersome, just like with Conor, it was exciting and fun at first, but now he's making a parody of himself and it's simply become bland.
Do note though, this is all arm chair psychology, speculations and personal readings of people so who knows really, but I suppose that goes without saying.
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