Lawler will fight RDA (December 16)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_on..._vs._dos_Anjos

Yeah that's how they do it mostly indeed, and it works for saving the 'bigger' fight and sacrificing the 'smaller' fight. But they still often need to pay the guy who is left without a fight. Goodbeer got paid since Hariss decided to fight Werdum. Ozedemir would also get a paycheck if Manuwa needed to step up for DC or Jones. So don't really think its about the money.

Yes don't expect any dropout, especially not from champions defending the belt. Since its expected to be a huge PPV and champions getting a cut. So yeah Bisping doesn't want to miss out on that huge payday. So where they normally might pull out, I think they will push the envelope a bit harder on this one.

Might be a consideration in bets? might be a small factor to take into consideration regarding Cody vs TJ, Cody having back issues and maybe still deciding to take the fight with some issues bc of him not wanting to miss out on the huge payday. I'm sure Bisping will show up almost regardless of what happens, I really do think he would show up with a broken finger, or bruised rib, to cash in on the huge payday at end of his career.

I'll be taking TJ partially because i'm a fan and strongly dislike Cody and partially because I think he'll probably match up better than Cruz did against Cody despite being a similar level fighter + unknown whether Cody's back is 100% plus he's a small dog. I think the odds are about right on the surface.

Definitely taking Wonderboy because he's a striking specialist against an aggressive but less technical striker. I'd take him against any of Condit/Lawler etc as well for the same reason. Should be an amazing fight if Masvidal is aggressive and presses the action the way Brown did back when he was green and Wonderboy hits him with hard counters.

GSP/Bisping all depends on the size if they're at all similar size i'll be on GSP and if Bisping dwarfs him i'll probably take Bisping. GSP not being at a reach disadvantage is making me lean GSP on skillset even with the layoff it just depends how big the size disadvantage is. Worth remembering Hendricks was almost certainly roided against GSP. A lot will depend on whether GSP has been clean his entire career or not. If he has, I think he wins. If not and he's clean now then i'd snap take Bisping.

Joanna/Rose is a tough one, I may take a stab at Rose by submission or Joanna in the later rounds or minus the points or something. Hard to say when lines aren't out yet. Might take the under if price is appealing enough too, Rose is probably more breakable than at least 3 of Joanna's last 4 opponents in her decision streak and if Rose wins it's very likely to be by finish (sub) too. Seems like a pretty clear case of 'can Rose take Joanna down and submit her early through strength and technique before Joanna starts to rack up rounds and damage on the feet'. Gadelha did get Joanna down early, if Rose does she's live to get the sub. If she doesn't she's obviously drawing pretty close to dead in the standup even though her standup is good.'

Hoping to get Mickey Gall at a good price too, he'll probably be over-priced as the bigger name in the fight but if he's not i'm a believer in the hype to some extent even though he's obviously very green.

It'll be interesting to see how many buys the biggest non-Conor card they can put together will do. I'm guessing something like 700k? It'll be interesting to see it could be anything from 500k-1m

So far I'm on TJ and Masvidal and strongly considering GSP. I think Chael said it, yes Bisping might be bigger, but GSP will be stronger. I think GSP will get the takedown at least a few rounds and even if he cant hold him down long, I think he will just steal rounds that way. Think it will be quite close on the feet, but GSP just mixes it up so good with his TDs

BTW there already some lines for JJ vs Rose, I think it was 1.25 for JJ to win.

Ring rust is very real and GSP has a significantly smaller frame than Michael Bisping. Bisping is a very big man who formerly competed at light heavyweight. There is no way that GSP could ever compete at light heavyweight. We also don't have any evidence that GSP will be stronger than Bisping, that is pure conjecture on Sonnen's part.

Also, Chael Sonnen is an idiot - I loved him as a fighter, but the guy is worse than useless as a fight prognosticator. You could probably make money just from fading his picks.

That having been said, I do think that GSP has more of a chance than other people in this thread are giving him credit for. I said this in another post, but the thing I keep coming back to is GSP is an extremely smart guy and he wouldn't be taking this fight if he didn't think he could win. The guy does his homework, could have picked basically anyone to fight against, and he picked Bisping. That should tell us something.

On the other hand, the size difference is real, as is the ring rust. 4 years is a LONG time. Tim Kennedy had only been off for about 15 months, and he looked absolutely horrible against Gastelum. We don't know how different GSP is going to look, but there's no way he's going to be as good as he used to be.

Yeah, and it seems like you can't really trust that fighter's picks are even honest (let alone sharp). If they were sincere picks, we would see a lot more fighters picking against their friends, former teammates, etc.

Also, Aldo/Lamas 2, Teixeira/Cirkunov, and Perry/Ponzinibbio

If we keep fading Dern at huge odds, one of these days she'll lose, right?

LFA 24 Risk $458.13

Matthew Frincu (-155) vs Curtis Millender $155.00 for $100.00

Mandy Polk (+925) vs Mackenzie Dern $50.00 for $462.50
Mandy Polk/Mackenzie Dern does not start round 3 (-177) ~$213.75 for ~$120.76

Nick Chasteen (+292) vs Keoni Diggs ~$39.38 for ~$114.99

Yes sure Bisping is bigger and obv has a bigger frame, I'm just saying it might be the case that GSP is stronger, I'm pretty sure he is able to lift more weight in the gym, if we want to define stronger by that route, ofc that is not so relevant in a MMA fight. But bigger and stronger are not the same.

Agree with GSP being intelligent and having a high fight IQ and I think that will help in defeating 'ring rust', I think GSP is that type of fighter that will less likely be affected by ring rust than other fighters the same is true for Cruz who is another intelligent guy with a high fight IQ. IMO ring rust is not so real as you state it is, it a vague term and I think preparation and fight IQ is key to battle that.

Also size, ring rust and layoff and the other unknowns are already quite heavily priced in the odds IMO, if not GSP would have been a way bigger favorite.

But on other hand lot of people make the mistake of underestimating Bisping and his insane cardio and heart, so maybe GSP did the same. Haven't placed a bet myself, but leaning GSP for sure, and think current odds might be the best line we going to see.

Totally agree, and I have no idea who Chael is picking in this fight and don't really care, just thought it was interesting statement by him saying that Bisping is bigger but GSP is stronger and I think he is correct on that one. Reminds me of when he said that Mayweather hits harder than Conor.

Yeah, especially since a broken finger isn't as bad for striking as it is for wrestling / grappling (I assume, since you can kinda ignore pain, but prolly feel less inclined to punch, when punching but broken finger takes a lot away in terms of grip strength?).
Also agree, if we get rumors that Cody has back issues, might be worth to bet TJ since I reckon this fight will be close.

Ive heard Chael admit many times he is not great at predicting fight outcomes, but ease up on the idiot talk. I think he analyzes fights quite well, he just is clueless when factoring mathematical value. In terms of talking about fighter strenghth who better to evaluate then a guy who fought bisping and took him down multiple times?

The issue I have with Chael is the guy is a serial liar and his whole goal is to be entertaining, so he'll say wild and outlandish **** that he doesn't even necessarily believe in order to try to get attention. That having been said, I've only listened to a couple episodes so if you think there's value in him you could be right, I just don't put any stock in what he says because I don't trust him to be honest. The guy I really like is Ray Longo, but it's tough to find interviews with him where he's breaking down fights.

Incidentally, does anyone have any thoughts on the upcoming UFC Card? I'm looking forward to Cowboy vs Till but the line looks about right, Till is probably the better striker but Cowboy is more well rounded and I think if he can get Till down he wins by submission a lot, he's got a very underrated ground game. Any matchups you guys like?

There's a difference between the likes of Firas Zahabi, Ray Longo, Greg Jackson and Chael Sonnen. The former are actual confirmed top notch instructors who try to be as objective as possible and present their "scientific" breakdown of a fight, whereas Chael Sonnen tries to mix in controversial elements into his breakdown to make him stand out, since he is a showman first.

But you have to admire his honesty in all of this, he's said his predictions suck and that he attempts to be a showman in order to sell more fights, get people to tune in. So he's not delusional in that way and I think if you don't swallow all of the statements he makes, but rather try to pick out the reasonable parts, there's something to be gotten from his talks. I do think he over does it too often and it can become quite cumbersome, just like with Conor, it was exciting and fun at first, but now he's making a parody of himself and it's simply become bland.
Do note though, this is all arm chair psychology, speculations and personal readings of people so who knows really, but I suppose that goes without saying.

True they've gotta pay the one that gets left without a fight, but they were gonna pay them anyway. If they started having some kind of designated emergency fighter they'd have to pay them as well as the two undercard fighters they would otherwise have poached from. They'd probably need to have a few different emergency fighters to cover off different weight classes, it'd start adding up pretty quickly.

There's probably health issues involved too with fighters taking potentially unnecessary weight cuts etc.

Anybody loving any spots this weekend?

I can't see Karolina losing to Equiebel she's an atomweight who lost to Alex Chambers although the split dec win over Deanna Bennett is impressive that's basically her entire resume as the rest is losses or cans.

Kind of think Cerrone beats Till but I didn't see Till's last fight and he's young/improving and Cerrone is slightly overrated on name value and while i've picked his last few fights well i'm historically bad at picking Cerrone fights.

I'm still sort of tempted to take Cowboy as it's a huge step up in competition for Till and Cowboy only tends to lose to top 10 fighters and we haven't seen proof Till is at that level yet.

Weiczorec seems to be steaming and Hamilton's a lower level guy at best so might be better to take the prospect than the guy we know is 'only okay' as a HW and loses to anyone legit.

Does anyone know much about how good Emeev is and how he matches up with Alvey? Alvey's the definition of 'mid level UFC striker with low output but lots of power' how does Emeev match up with that? I haven't seen him fight but he has a nice record in M1.

I really want to fade both Artem and Fili as they're both overrated so no idea what to do there. Fili should beat him in theory but I can't help but feel like Artem might actually win.

Borrachinha by TKO seems like a good spot for 217 vs Hendricks whose chin is going especially if Hendricks looks like he's had another rough cut off the roids, pretty sure Borrachinha is roiding and just hasn't been caught yet based on the eye test. If he is and Hendricks isn't, Hendricks is going to sleep unless he can LnP which I doubt.

Hoping to get a Rose SUB prop at like +900 vs Joanna and will probably play fight doesn't go the distance at about evens. Def taking Wonderboy straight up and probably taking TJ straight up as a small dog but only for a small amount due to the question marks over Cody's back as well as whether Cody is just that good or just matched up well with Cruz who had an off night. Going to wait for weigh ins for GSP/Bisping it's one of those fights I think i'll just know who's going to win once I see the staredown but won't be able to tell until then

Don't like this card at all for betting.

Backed Fili at 1.73 earlier in the week when he steamed on Pinny. With the view to back Lobov and have an arbitrage bet.

Did want to back Till but was expecting him to be quite a big bigger in odds.

Loaded up on Bisping at 2.2 as I think its one of the best bets of the year in MMA.

Cerrone
Karolina
Clark
Fili
Held

I think these humans all win.

I haven't done a ton of homework on this card but nothing is really jumping out at me as a particularly good spot.

Till is a very dangerous fight for Cerrone. Till reminds me a little bit of Jorge Masvidal (just in terms of his striking) because he's so relaxed in there. Great striker, obviously. Cerrone is much more well rounded and should have a far superior submission game, which could be the difference, but he's also got a lot of miles on him and has almost certainly already peaked as a fighter, whereas Till is still getting better.

Agree that Clark probably wins, but his loss against Alex Nicholson was pathetic and it's tough to have a lot of confidence in a guy who loses like that. Clark seems like he's prone to gassing too.

There could be some value in Fili, but not much IMO. He's coming off an embarrassing loss against a UFC newcomer and Lobov looked surprisingly competitive against Cub Swanson, but Fili is younger, has a massive reach advantage, and is well rounded overall, so this could be a good spot to "buy low" on Fili.

Still, Lobov is tough as nails and is good at coming forward against pressure fighters, so I think it's going to be a pretty close fight. Fili also has a bad habit of exposing his center line when he initiates contact which makes him susceptible to good counter punchers.

Also, is it me or is Rose Namajunas good value at +320 against Joanna? Joanna is really good and should definitely be the favorite, but I don't think Rose is more than a 3-1 underdog against her. Anybody else like Rose here?

^ Srlsy think Joanna would be value at -600 at least.

Bellator 185 Risk $728.40

Alexander Shlemenko (+600) vs Gegard Mousasi $50.00 for $300.00
Alexander Shlemenko/Gegard Mousasi won’t go 3 round distance (-180) $90.00 for $50.00

Zak Bucia (+435) vs Neiman Gracie $50.00 for $217.50
Neiman Gracie wins inside distance (-141) $56.40 for $40.00

Ryan Quinn (-116) vs Marcus Surin ~$342.00 for ~$294.83
Ryan Quinn (-140) vs Marcus Surin $140.00 for $100.00

has anyone used Unibet or Expekt for betting before?

they have ohl/whl hockey that not many other sites have, atl east i cant find em besides bodog, and i want to know if they are reputable.

cant find any site, so much euro hockey no canadian hockey. bodogs fees kill me so id like a better site.

Unibets good although theyll limit you if you win after a bit.

Anyone else think that Shlemenko should have gotten that decision last night?


UFN 118 Risk $2244.00

Donald Cerrone (-135) vs Darren Till $945.00 for $700.00
Donald Cerrone wins by submission (+275) $40.00 for $110.00
Donald Cerrone wins by submission +(275) $40.00 for $110.00
Donald Cerrone wins by submission in round 3 (+1400) ~$24.00 for ~$336.0
Donald Cerrone wins in round 3 (+881) $25.00 for $220.25
Donald Cerrone wins in round 4 (+1208) $25.00 for $302.00
Donald Cerrone/Darren Till won’t start round 5 (-134) $134.00 for $100.00
Donald Cerrone/Darren Till won’t start round 5 (-134) $134.00 for $100.00

Karolina Kowalkiewicz -3½ points (-185) vs Jodie Esquibel $74.00 for $40.00

Jan Blachowicz (+140) vs Devin Clark $100.00 for $140.00
Jan Blachowicz (+125) vs Devin Clark $100.00 for $125.00

Oskar Piechota wins by 3 round decision (+430) vs Jonathan Wilson $25.00 for $107.50

Nasrat Haqparast (+345) vs Marcin Held $100.00 for $345.00

Damian Stasiak scorecards = no action (+115) vs Brian Kelleher $75.00 for $86.25
Damian Stasiak/Brian Kelleher won’t go 3 round distance (+145) $75.00 for $108.75

Sam Alvey/Ramazan Emeev Over 2½ (-175) $70.00 for $40.00

Artem Lobov (+168) vs Andre Fili $100.00 for $168.00

Warlley Alves/Salim Touahri Under 1½ (-115) $57.50 for $50.00

Lina Lansberg wins by 3 round decision (+330) vs Aspen Ladd $33.00 for $108.90

Josh Emmett/Felipe Arantes Over 2½ (-225) $67.50 for $30.00