Its hard to say how the main goes, I just think Ferguson is a step too far for Lee at this point and will find a way to finish it at some stage but anything could happen

Ended up adding small bets on Green +175 and Werdum -250, I wont even mind that much if the Green one loses as i'm a Vannata fan but I don't think Green should be more than +150 here and Werdum is probably closer to -3xx.

Ferguson Lee FOTN (fight of the night) available at +250.. that's pretty good imo
https://www.bestfightodds.com/events...on-vs-lee-1341

A part of me is feeling the Borg upset... I have no idea how or why... I'm falling for Jackson/Wink's BS PR stuff.

I just don't think he's the right guy to beat MM. He has to ragdoll him like pre-injury Cruz only he's not as big as Cruz and doesn't have the movement or the striking

I think MM might KO him standing

If anyone can LnP him at FLW it's Cejudo probably and I like Borg and would love to see him pull it off despite having a bet on MM itd

TJ Dillashaw is the nightmare matchup for Mighty Mouse imo and he ducked it, granted i'm glad because i'd rather see TJ/Cody at BW. Benavidez and Cejudo probably have the best shot of the current FLWs and MM is 3-0 vs them and counting so far

I don't mind Green/Vannata for FOTN if Green brings it (if he doesnt itll suck) but its on the prelims. Dunham/Dariush isnt bad for FOTN at +675, main card and likely to go the distance and be competitive standing. If Ferg/Lee is competitive and goes o2.5 itll prob get it but i'm not sure it will be either of those things. Its def the fav for FOTN but +250 seems too short.

Got Tony to win by Dec or Sub for +175...

seems like most of his last fights end this way. i doubt Lee gets KO'd by him, maybe a TKO tony isnt a 1 punch kinda guy.

still took above for a few hundo anyway

I actually considered that bet before going with Ferguson ITD. The EV on the sub or dec prop is probably better as he's more likely to rock him standing and submit him than KO him cold or with GnP but I do think a TKO is slightly more likely than a dec. At +175 it probably is the better bet though ill probably take some of it closer to the fight if its still there. If I have to pick an exact outcome its Ferguson rocks him standing and submits him with a darce. If I take that as well as my ITD bet I effectively of have a combination of Ferguson straight up and by sub which feels better than an ITD bet

UFC 216 Risk $2731.00

Tony Ferguson (-255) vs Kevin Lee $255.00 for $100.00
Tony Ferguson -5½ points (-175) $175.00 for $100.00
Tony Ferguson wins by submission (+187) $55.00 for $102.85
Tony Ferguson wins inside distance (-150) $150.00 for $100.00
Kevin Lee wins in round 1 (+1325) $25.00 for $331.25
Kevin Lee wins in round 2 (+1550) $25.00 for $387.50
Kevin Lee wins by submission (+704) $30.00 for $211.20
Tony Ferguson wins in round 2 (+517) $15.00 for $77.55
Tony Ferguson wins in round 3 (+839) $15.00 for $125.85
Tony Ferguson wins in round 4 (+1058) $15.00 for $158.70
Tony Ferguson/Kevin Lee Under 2½ (+100) $50.00 for $50.00
Tony Ferguson/Kevin Lee won’t start round 5 (-184) $184.00 for $100.00
Tony Ferguson/Kevin Lee fight won't go distance (-240) $120.00 for $50.00
Tony Ferguson/Kevin Lee fight ends in submission (+130) $40.00 for $52.00

Demetrious Johnson/Ray Borg Under 4½ (-147) $147.00 for $100.00
Demetrious Johnson wins by TKO/KO (+221) $40.00 for $88.40
Demetrious Johnson wins in round 3 (+575) $20.00 for $115.00
Demetrious Johnson wins in round 4 (+775) $20.00 for $155.00
Ray Borg wins by submission (+1525) $20.00 for $305.00

Fabricio Werdum/Derrick Lewis Under 2½ (-135) $135.00 for $100.00
Fabricio Werdum wins by TKO/KO +(396) $25.00 for $99.00

Kalindra Faria wins by 3 round decision (+147) vs Mara Romero Borella $50.00 for $73.50

Beneil Dariush/Evan Dunham Under 2½ (+174) $75.00 for $130.50

Cody Stamann (+145) vs Tom Duquesnoy $100.00 for $145.00
Cody Stamann wins by decision (+225) $50.00 for $112.50

Lando Vannata (-160) vs Bobby Green $160.00 for $100.00
Lando Vannata wins by TKO/KO (+325) $35.00 for $113.75

Pearl Gonzalez (+150) vs Poliana Botelho $75.00 for$112.50
Pearl Gonzalez wins by submission (+686) $30.00 for $205.80

Marco Antonio Beltran (+100) vs Matt Schnell $50.00 for $50.00
Marco Antonio Beltran/Matt Schnell Under 1½ (+178) $50.00 for $89.00

Walt Harris/Mark Godbeer Under 1½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00
Walt Harris wins in round 1 (+110) $40.00 for $44.00

Magomed Bibulatov wins by 3 round decision (-150)vs John Moraga $45.00 for $30.00

Brad Tavares /Thales Leites Under 2½ (+190) $40.00 for $76.00
Brad Tavares wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+555) $20.00 for $111.00

Pearl Gonzalez wins Fastest Submission (+1800) $15.00 for $270.00
Walt Harris wins Fastest KO (+325) $15.00 for $48.75

Parlay:
Demetrious Johnson -9½ points (-300) vs Ray Borg + Tony Ferguson -5½ points (-195) vs Kevin Lee $200.00 for $203.42

Tony Ferguson wins by submission in round 3 (+1150) ~$21.75 for ~$250.13

Have Kevin Lee, Fabricio Werdum, Cody Stamann (biggest bet), and Walt Harris. Also a couple prop arbs that I'm experimenting with. Good luck all.

In retrospect, I wish I maybe hadn't made the Werdum bet. I think he wins the majority of the time, but Derrick Lewis's closest comparable in the heavy fight division is probably Mark Hunt (obviously he's not as good as Mark Hunt, but they have similar styles), and Werdum got lucky to knockout Hunt, he was losing the fight up until that point.

But hey, we'll see what happens.

Lewis injured, fight with Werdum is off.

Godbeer is shoved aside for Werdum vs Walt Harris now.

UFC is tilting AF sometimes.

oh wow

Walt Harris is no joke. That's a dangerous fight for Werdum.

Well thats a bit annoying, I wonder which fighter thats better for. I mean i'm glad Werdum's still fighting at least as I don't really care about Godbeer and Harris has nothing to lose. Props to Werdum taking the opponent change on no notice.

Just tuning in now and saw Moraga won as a big dog. Mildly annoyed I didn't trust my read he was too big a dog even though I thought Bibulatov would win.

Probably going to just hit Werdum straight up taking a look at the odds, HUGE step up for Harris and a small step down for Werdum plus Godbeer is British and from memory is a striker, so it's a big change in style in that if Werdum gets it to the ground at all Harris is getting submitted, Ledet submitted him so I see no reason why Werdum can't.

Obviously anyone can win on any given night at HW but Werdum is probably better at everything and wouldn't have accepted the opponent change if he didn't think it was an easy fight, the Stipe fight taught him a lesson about being cocky so hopefully he just comes in to grind out the win which he should given it's required to get back to a title shot in a fight or two.

Added Werdum -300 straight up and also took a little bit on Ferguson -220 although I have more on him ITD

Let's go Ferguson/Werdum/MM and I guess Green even though it's a small bet there

Harris is better at some things than Lewis but Werdum is less likely to get hulk-smashed in the face in the first minute which is basically the only way he's likely to lose so I think the change in opponent is fine for him. He's survived a lot of rounds with far better strikers like Reem and Hunt and obviously Harris is pretty much drawing dead if it goes to the mat with Werdum in any sort of reasonable position.

Decent arb on Green/Vannata between Pinny and b365 if anyone wants it, -170/+187

What a fight, deserves to be a draw I guess glad neither guy lost comes down to r2 I figured anything from 29-27 either guy to 28-28 is fair.

Perfect outcome as a fan my bet doesnt lose and neither guy loses wish I had it for FOTN as I mentioned pre card it's my pick for it

WOWEE!! A rare result in MMA with all three possible views considered as Vannata & Green ends up a draw (29-27, 27-29 & 28-28) and that's after Lando got a point deducted in the 1st round for an illegal knee.

Superficially I can't argue with that being a draw (what a fight!) but Lando would've won without the point deduction!

If Lando stopped blocking punches with his face he would be such a beast

If Green came forward with pressure and that jab he would be such a beast

Two entertaining flawed fighters with a whole lot of potential. If I was an MMA coach i'd love to work with either

Cannot believe one judge gave Cody Stamann that first round, but hey, I'll take it. Nice win for me.

Lol...Ufc judges. Stamann did not win 1st.

I think Borg is gonna give MM a fight tonight. At least for awhile.

Late bout addition: Walt Harris/Fabricio Werdum Under 1½ (+110) $100.00 for $110.00

Parlay

Fabricio Werdum-250
Tony Ferguson-270
Beneil Dariush-225
Risk $300.00 Win $531.30

GL Me.
<--- pick em degen

I don't mind it I think all 3 win a lot. Im just on mm itd Ferg Ferg itd and werdum for main card. Breakdown so far as green was my only prelim bet