I disagree, I think Romero would match up better against DC than any other fighter beside Gus at LHW. I do see Weidman getting ragdolled against DC.

I would LOVE getting Romero as a dog against Rockhold. I think Rockholds game shown a huge hole when it comes to defensive striking, he cant fight backing up and is not good in the pocket, he is good at distance using his kicks or in the clinch and obv got an outstanding ground game and probably the best top control in the division. But he got some huge holes on the feet and a dangerous explosive striker can expose that, although Romero does miss the pressure style approach but I still would pick him over Luke.

BTW I could give you Ozdemir at +200 vs DC if you like? since you said you would pick him at that price, Just a smallish amount until fight gets made and odds come out.

I'd like to know when the fights made first the sooner it is the more likely I auto take oezdemir due to the Jones TKO. Happy to bet vigfree w you when fights made assuming we both like the price though

For Bellator I took: Danta -107, Sanchez +107, Teixeira +145, Higo -240

Luke Thomas @lthomasnews 24 minutes ago

Lee misses weight by 1 pound. Dr's allow him to cut one last pound in one hour. Now, even if he makes it, he'll be extraordinarily drained.

EDIT (also):

Nik Lentz out of UFC 216 fight with Will Brooks due to medical issues https://www.mmafighting.com/2017/10/...source=twitter …

UPDATE: Kevin Lee weighs in at 154.5lbs

Can't have a UFC event without weight in troubles it seems. Sigh. At least the fight is on. Line moved quite a bit in Ferguson's favor.

wait the limit is 156? so lee was 157 couldnt drop a pound...but weights in at 154.5? dropping 1.5 pounds under?

so confused

^ Limit is 155 because it's a "title" fight. Lee was 156 the first time.

Almost at evens now pretty big steam. Also like Dantas at even money against Caldwell. Feel like his experience and all round game gives him the edge in this fight.

Really good Bellator card overall

Yeah, he could have cut more the first time but he thought he was on weight. He was shocked when they said 156.

Bellator 184 Risk $1447.85

Darrion Caldwell (+100) vs Eduardo Dantas $200.00 for $200.00
Darrion Caldwell wins inside distance (+324) $35.00 for $113.40

Daniel Straus (-135) vs Emmanuel Sanchez $270.00 for $200.00
Daniel Straus wins by 3 round decision (+175) $75.00 for $131.25

John Teixeira (+140) vs Pat Curran $100.00 for $140.00
John Teixeira +3½ points (-210) $210.00 for $100.00
John Teixeira/Pat Curran Over 2½ (-219) $109.50 for $50.00
John Teixeira wins by 3 round decision (+225) $75.00 for $168.75

Joe Taimanglo +3½ points (-120) $120.00 for $100.00
Joe Taimanglo/Leandro Higo Under 2½ (+145) $75.00 for $108.75

Steve Kozola (-154) vs Carrington Banks ~$178.35 for ~$115.81

As boring as the fight was likely to be im sad Lentz/Brooks is off I wanted to see Brooks give him a beatdown

This card just doesnt seem that good for betting

Money on Sanchez was proven right. Why so much movement to one side though? Was something wrong with Straus?

http://www.sherdog.com/events/Bellat...Caldwell-62105

Small loss on the Bellator card. Thought Dantas was going to win after Caldwell looked so tired at the end of round three, but somehow Dantas just couldn't get his offense going. Sanchez vs Straus was the highlight of that card for me. Very compelling grappling exchanges throughout.

I just grabbed some Lee +225. He looked like he was rehydrating well, that's a big line move.

I just see him as a champ sooner than later and I'm not as sold on Ferguson as everyone else. Him and Alvarez both beat RDA when RDA was dying to make 155 and likely off the best sauce he had. Alvarez ended up overpriced vs McGregor because of that and I think decent chance Ferguson is here as well.

^ I came here to comment on the same. Lee looked good at the ceremonial weigh in.

^^ I don't agree at all. I think Lee is a strong dude and he made quick work of Chiesa but Ferguson on a different level. What's Lee's path to victory here? Is he really going to out grapple or submit Ferguson?

We'll see, not that it can't happen but I think Ferguson is more well rounded and brings a ton more weapons to the table. Lee basically does a few things really well which is not a bad thing but it's likely not going to work against elite fighters.

With that being said if he is significantly stronger (which I have no evidence for) then that might be the deciding factor. It'll be almost impossible for the weaker yet more skillful all-rounder to fight off a guy that takes your back and chokes you out as a specialty. You can be as well rounded as you want to be but if a specialist like Lee who is just too strong to in the wrestling simply out-mans you for lack of a better word then I see Lee winning. But he's have to be a lot stronger, I don't think he does it with skill alone, I mean Ferguson isn't a dummy, he's one of the smartest fighters in the UFC.

Ferguson also has great standup and he puts a lot of pressure on guys, marching forward like he does. He eats every punch thrown at him and I haven't actually seen him flinch once. I read somewhere that Lee has trouble fighting walking back, I think a lot of fighters have that problem. Everybody that steps into that cage with Ferguson is fighting taking steps back, because he always comes forward, watch any of his fights.

I think Lee's got potential but he's still young so I don't think he beats Ferguson right now. We'll see, he might surprise me but I doubt it.

Ferguson ITD -137
MM ITD -137
Werdum ITD +130 + Werdum/Lewis doesn't go distance -175

Split my Werdum bet with an either fighter ITD bet. I think Werdum finishes Lewis either quickly or once he gasses, but there's a slight chance he coasts to a decision which would suck - the thing is he doesn't have the submission defense to survive on the ground at all vs Werdum so LnP won't happen. Obviously Lewis can land a big punch, but he doesn't it'll be a one sided fight with Werdum swinging the hammer.

Nothing too huge this card. Sort of like the prices on Leites, Moraga and Green (I like the other side of all 3 but think they're all slightly too big a dog vs actual probability). On the plus side my 3 bets will be exciting sweats as theyre the 3 favourites to finish in the last 3 fights and I like each of them to win their respective fights. Hopefully we get at least two of them.

I really strongly agree. This is such a massive step up in competition, and Ferguson might be the most well rounded fighter in mma. I guess the argument for betting Lee is that Ferguson has been hit hard in two of his last three fights, but at the same time, his chin has held up so well. Even though it only lasted 7 or 8 minutes, his fight with barbosa was one of the best ive seen live when you consider how high level both of those guys are and how both could potentially knock the other out at any moment.

Roundtable on sherdog absolutely loved betting on Duquesnoy at -160, so i put one unit on him. Im going to the fights, so probably will find some other bets, even though Im in the same boat as Swoop with guys like Bobby Green probably getting too high of a price, but just having so many flaws at same time.

come on man... lewis (will tire, also will get his belly smashed to check imo). against a dude if you said he was the champ it would be understandable.

Single - Fabricio Werdum vs Derrick Lewis
No - Fight to go the Distance?
Odds: 10/17
1 lines at £65.00 per line
Total Stake for this bet: £65.00
Potential Return:£103.24

gl balla - I tossed up a bunch between just taking werdum, taking werdum itd and fight doesnt go the distance and settled on the latter two

Pretty tempted to get on Werdum wins in r3 around +900 too but might just leave it as I already have two correlated bets on it

Tony Ferguson is some thing special, I see lee has never gone into round 4 or 5 ever.... Ferguson moves and fights in a way that makes you tired from apprehension and so on,,, end of the 3rd if it goes that fire Tony will be in better shape,

ITD looks sensible or fight to end in rds 4, 5?

I trust UFC are going to hold a minutes silence before the action starts Imo.
Will snap donate the winnings to law enforcement family fund.

Its being held in LV I just saw,

adding more.

your bets (1)

Single - Fabricio Werdum vs Derrick Lewis
No - Fight to go the Distance?
Odds: 10/17
1 lines at £65.00 per line
Total Stake for this bet: £65.00
Potential Return:£103.24
Time : 7/10/2017-19:24


best bet I know to make.... Fabricio is WAY too good to get clipped by Lewis, also even if he does he knows how to ride punches.

ITD is a lock

(If any one else has a real screamer of a night, be sure and donate a few dollars towards the recent events in LV imo, what goes around comes around, give).

Leites +155
Bothello -164
Green +150
Schnell -106
Duqyuesnoy -158
Dariush -211
Faria -217
Lewis +220
Lee +230