I'm going to make a large bet on Bisping over GSP. Even Rockhold thinks Bisping is going to kick GSP's ass. Although now that I check the lines, they seem to have dropped substantially most everywhere from around +130 to +115, so I wish I bet earlier. Maybe they'll move back up this month.

Bispingg and Ngannou both have to be +EV bets imo. I wouldn't bet the house but they sure look like great bets on paper!

Just don't see Ngannou troubled by Reem. Reem will be backing up the entire time, almost running away, mark my words. Ngannou too strong and fast and will land his jab to KO reem. What's Reem got exactly? A punchers chance. He has to get lucky to land that punch/knee and he's got to drop him. I just don't see it happening! Even in the clinch, Ngannou will/should not be there to get hit. Only thing is experience and perhaps Ngannou chokes and lets Reem clinch him and gets of a knee. But even then Reem need shim pressed up against the cage and I don't see that happening often either as Reem will be too busy running away.

As for Bisping, just his size and strength vs a guy that has not fought in 4 years and a guy that is also 4 years older than what he was! Sure he was great but that was at WW not MW. Bisping will eat him for breakfast imo!

There's no clear path to victory for GSP. He won't even be able to wrestle Bisping as Bisping is just too strong for him to hold down imo!

Just saw that DC ran a poll and his fans want him to face Oezdemir next so both of them are asking for the fight

Makes sense to strike while they can with a fresh contender, Gustafsson can take a keep busy fight or have some time off and fight the winner

Really looking forward to DC/Oezdemir as it's hard to say how good Oezdemir is since his last two fights were quick knockouts and for the OSP fight he was a short notice replacement. If I can get Oezdemir at +200 or better assuming they make the fight i'll be down to fade DC as he gets older especially as he's coming off a loss, although I assume DC still has to be the favourite.

It'd make sense to have Gustafsson fight on the same card against the next highest ranked contender so that the winners can fight, OSP seems like a relatively safe fight for Gustafsson, he's coming off a main event win and it's the only fresh matchup other than Oezdemir himself out of the top contenders at LHW for Gustafsson. Also keeps the title fight intact in case of injury.

Id watch both those fights, though I still think DC is the best at LHW, he'd ragdoll Jones too if he wasn't cheating!!!. DC vs Gustafsson again pls!!!

Yeah I think that regardless of who is first out of Oezdemir and Gustafsson to fight DC whoever doesn't get the next title shot will fight the winner anyway and by the end of 2018 whoever is currently the best out of the three of them will be champ (i'm assuming Jones will be out for at least a few years due to suspension)

I get the whole Jones drug cheat hate, I really do... but if Cormier were to get another fight against a "clean" Jon Jones (and how could you even know or trust that he was now), I still think Jones destroys him. Partly because of age, because Cormier isn't getting younger. But mostly because Jones didn't necessarily beat Cormier both times by overpowering him, he beat him by outthinking him.

It's hard to say because it's likely the only clean Jones we've ever seen in the UFC was against OSP and he looked kinda bad, that scared him and he went back to using.

Cormier vs the Jones that fought OSP could go either way.

I think there's a pretty good chance Oezdemir or Gustafsson or even someone else will be champ by the time Jones returns from suspension in a few years because DC isn't getting any younger

Jones entire legacy is tainted because he was likely using his entire career with the possible exception of one fight. He's still the LHW GOAT skillset wise etc, but that skillset was gained through cheating.

To be fair though, for much of his title reign his competition were probably also using - he's been out / suspended for most of the USADA era :P

I just meant roided Jones is one of the best ever, assuming he's been using the whole time. Obviously it's cheating though so it doesn't really count.

Assuming Gustafsson was clean (and we have no reason to believe otherwise given he's never failed a test) that makes his performance against Jones even more impressive

I believe Dominck Cruz tore his plantar fascia in that fight, or at a minimum had severe plantar fasciitis. He said something like that on the JRE.

Thing is, both of the fights he won where the other guy had some major success was Cormier 2 (Cormier 1, Cormier had some minor success and it wasn't the blowout everyone said it was) and Gustafsson 1, where he started outworking both fighters after round 3. Could you imagine how good Cormier would be if he took steroids, a 40 year old man? For reference, see Belforts resurgence...

Anthony Johnson to meet with UFC about return, likely at heavyweight

https://www.mmafighting.com/2017/10/...source=twitter …

LOL. I'd rethink that if I were you. The whole point of steroids is to make you stronger. So yes he did overpower DC. Were it not for roids he wouldn't of been in a position to "out-think" DC.

That's gotta be a rigged poll and he wants an easier fight for his next time out. Oezdemir/DC will have to be a co-main as no one is paying for that. Gustaffson is atleast a known name and you could sell some PPVs with it.

The problem is DC is seen as a paper champ by casual fans because he lost to Jones and casual fans won't follow the 'Jones was on PEDs and got stripped of the title again' story they'll just think 'didnt I just see this guy lose the title recently'

None of the contenders at LHW are a big draw right now because Jones cleaned out the division. Shogun is too far past his prime but is probably the second biggest draw at LHW still

I'm honestly quite surprised that some HWs who are out of title contention for the time being aren't moving down, JDS giving it a shot would be interesting (especially if he really is coming off roids and needs to lose muscle mass which is possible). It'd be a hard cut as he's a big guy but he could make 205 in theory if he lost a small amount of muscle mass and cut from 220-225. Weidman and Rockhold have both expressed interest in 205 in the past too and that would be interesting in both cases if they had time to bulk up properly for it. It's crazy how shallow 205 is when it was one of the deepest divisions in terms of star power back when I was getting into MMA around the UFC 100 era (Liddell Evans Machida Shogun pre title Jones Griffin Rampage Ortiz etc)

Now it's basically perma-suspended Jones, ageing DC, Gustafsson who is great but has fallen short in his big fights, past his prime Shogun and the next biggest names out of the contenders are guys like Oezdemir and Cirkunov who granted have shown a lot of potential and guys like OSP who will clearly never win the belt. Middleweight's become the highest weight class with a stacked title picture in the post-Anderson as champ era, there are at least 6-7 guys who could be champ 18 months from now if the belt is defended 4+ times in that timeframe and I wouldn't be surprised at all (Bisping Whittaker Weidman Rockhold Romero Jacare GSP, Mousasi if he returns to the UFC which granted is unlikely in that timeframe and even whoever wins out of Brunson/Machida could be on a multi fight streak by then - plus there's always the slim chance Anderson wins a few more and gets a title shot and guys like Gastelum too)

I'm not super excited for 216 but will def watch, can't wait for 217 though. Ferguson fights are always great and even though the MM fight is just to pad his record unless Borg has gotten WAY better at LnP and offensive grappling in general the card should be watchable. Vannata/Green could be FOTN if Green comes to fight instead of to spar. Werdum/Lewis should end in a finish too.

Vannata price not as good as i'd hoped. Bibulatov unbettable. I was hoping to get Tavares as a dog, but Leites at +16x looks not terrible. Brooks price seems about right I was hoing to get -200 or -220 or something which was within the realm of possible as an opener. I don't like Moraga but +4xx seems too high after I was hoping to get Bibulatov as a small fav.

Werdum/Lewis u2.5 rounds -130 seems pretty solid or fight not to go the distance at -170ish. Yeah if Werdum coasts and Lewis can't hit him Werdum might 30-27 it, but both guys could finish it on the feet, Lewis could gas and Werdum will easily submit him if it goes to the ground for any significant period of time and Werdum is trying to finish which he may be more prone to go for after he was robbed (in his mind anyway but it was certainly iffy at least) in his last fight.

I think Werdum/Lewis under is prob my fav spot at first glance, I think it ends inside distance about two thirds of the time and should be more like -200 to end ITD/-160 or something for u2.5

Yeah the LHW division is really shallow but so is the HW to be honest, a few wins and your in title conversation.
HW moving down is an option indeed, but for most of them it's a hard cut and like said HW is shallow already. Why not MW's moving up? Makes way more sense to me, division is pretty stacked and on hold with Bisping as champion. I see Jacara, Romero, Rockhold and even Weidman, all doing great in that division and most of them will be able to be top 5 and get a title shot relatively fast. Romero vs DC would be pretty epic.

Looks like Conor McGregor won't be coming back to the UFC...

https://kevinogborne.com/conor-issue...yweather-loss/

Backed Werdum at 1.44.

Think he is better everywhere then Lewis. Lewis has more raw power in his strikes.
But I think Werdum wins this fight around 70-75% which is marginal value.

Watching Duquesnoy on the European scene I know he is super talented but has holes in his game. Think he is a bit overrated and Stamann's wrestling could really trouble him.

Shogun unfortunately isn't a contender anymore. Perhaps a small draw but would need to look at his past numbers.

Romero would get WRECKED against DC, outside of a puncher's chance he'd be at a size disadvantage, facing a wrestler whose TDD is probably Whittaker-level and whose takedown offense is better and DC could hang on the feet with him and DC wouldn't be at a size disadvantage for once. I wouldn't be surprised if DC actually ragdolled Romero as ridiculous as that sounds with Romero getting manhandled with his physique.

Rockhold and Weidman would have a better chance at LHW, although especially in Weidman's case they'd need to pack on the muscle and Weidman might have some serious cardio issues if he added mass to his frame given he's had issues already at MW.

I don't see why either needs to move up yet though especially Rockhold is probably only one win against Romero or Jacare away from a title shot assuming the GSP/Bisping winner fights Whittaker if he's healthy in early 2018, Rockhold could fight a top 5 guy in early 2018 and be in line for the next title shot by mid-late 2018 if he wins

Conor's suspension is up in a couple weeks I don't see why he can't return for either the NYE card or in early 2018 if he wants to. He'll have plenty of options and can obviously pick his own fight (Ferguson/Lee winner to unify LW belt is the obvious one, Diaz 3, Holloway superfight, Woodley superfight and he probably has the sway to fight Khabib too if he prefers that to the Ferg/Lee winner although Khabib should have to make weight at 155 and win the fight first before he gets the Conor payday)

I agree Shogun isn't a contender anymore but he's on a win streak and is the next biggest name in the division after the champ and suspended champ. He could easily get a title shot if he wins a couple more somehow. Who else is there? Let's say DC beats Oezdemir and Gustafsson and while that happens Shogun beats OSP in a rematch and takes out someone like Cirkunov. Unless someone new comes to 205 who else is there? It's unlikely but it's definitely possible.

I've only watched his one UFC fight, but I agree with your analysis. Stamann is the best wager on this card IMO.

Holloway/Edgar confirmed for 218, that card's shaping up nicely with Reem/Ngannou, Alvarez/Gaethje, Cejudo/Pettis and a few other solid fights. Could def use one more main card fight though as those are probably the only four PPV worthy ones. Would be cool if we got a second title fight too, but that has to happen soon if it's going to. Probably too soon for DC/Oezdemir and 219's more likely for that but you never know. Stipe's probably waiting to fight the Reem/Ngannou winner so 220 or 221 more likely there.

That's a 100% standard post-fight medical suspension, and he wasn't going to fight again before the end of October (when the suspension ends) anyway. It won't affect his comeback one way or the other.

As for middleweights moving up to 205, I guess the biggest issue with Rockhold is he's never going to take a fight against DC anyway, so there's probably not much point (at least until DC retires).

Romero is even older than DC, and Jacare is almost as old, I don't really see either of them making a title run at 205. Weidman might be interesting, but I think he's got a bunch of problems to solve regardless of the weight class he fights at.

I dunno which heavyweights might drop down, Cain obv wouldn't while DC is champ (if it were even physically possible for him). Stipe has no reason to. JDS I guess maybe, if he can make it down? I can't see it being physically possible for most of the other guys at heavyweight though (Hunt/Lewis LOL, Ngannou, Browne, Struve...)

Lol, that’s not even a news story - just an advert for a supplement.

Backing Sanchez at 2.5 against Straus for the Bellator card tomorrow.

No real analysis just chasing steam as he is 2.23 with Pinny and 2.1 at 5dimes.