It's probably shoddy journalism but the base claim that Tony Bloom (one of the worlds best soccer bettors) worked for VC back in the day and convinced the book to put its whole tournament's profits on France by accumulating a position there (by offering the best price on the other side to get lopsided bets) is true afaik

Yeah I'd believe that. I don't remember hearing about any big examples in "ordinary" MMA fights though?

That's not to say that it can't/hasn't/won't ever happen, but I suspect it's probably a lot less common that it is in the other major sports.

Yeah I'm not really sure, I don't really have any data on that. I know it happens in football quite often and I would suspect it's fairly common in MMA too (especially when a big named star like GSP is fighting), but I don't have any data on it.

This is kinda interesting. We might be able to test it actually. Do any person to person bet matching sites like matchbook have historical odds available? Assuming they will have closer to "real" lines, as there is no bookie holding the line to take lopsided action, we could compare it to historical odds for bookies and look for cases where they differ significantly. This obviously fails if the matching sites just mirror the bookies, which could happen if people just look at big bookies to see what the right price should be. A good place to check for that would be looking at the instances you guys have mentioned, like May-Mac.

Off topic for a moment but Cruz/Rivera announced for UFC 219, I assume the winner gets the title shot against the Cody/TJ winner. Perfect fight to make and should be awesome, it's just a shame it'll only be 3 rounds. Would be cool if the UFC made official #1 contender fights 5 rounds given the winner's going to have to fight the champ for 5 rounds, but would also involve setting firm #1 contender with guaranteed title shot fights up which gives the UFC less discretion to make money fights as they see fit etc. but it seems like such a waste for Cruz/Rivera to be a 3 round fight. The winner had better get the Cody/TJ winner, there's no one else who is ahead of either of them at BW. I hope Cruz has still got it and just had an off night against Cody but i'm worried that his body will eventually send him over a cliff. He's not old yet though if his body can actually recover from all of the injuries he's had.

Reem vs Ngannou for 218 should be good too. UFC def needs to start announcing the other main fights for 218/219 they're really not that far away. Hopefully we get Holloway/Edgar, Stipe/any top 5 HW (although Werdum, Reem and Ngannou are all booked and Cain is always injured) and Woodley/Lawler if they're set on doing that fight to get it done in time for the winner to fight the winner of Wonderboy/Masvidal early-ish next year. Conor defending against any of Nate/Khabib/Ferguson/Lee winner (the latter being the true #1 contender) would be cool too.

Not sure if exchange closing lines are available anywhere offhand.

^ Seems betfair might have some. Dunno how relevant their MMA market is.

As for all the fight announcements. Damnnnnn. A lot of great fights announced.

I think Ngannou is a pretty big favorite over Overeem now. Overeem is in some ways the better fighter, but Ngannou can take a punch and I think will land at least one Overeem breaking shot in 5 rounds.

I think Cejudo will open/be a decent favorite over Pettis, but I rate Pettis and suspect the value will be on him for this.

I think Gaethje blasts Alvarez.

I wonder why Overeem would take that fight.

Ngannou very strong and in his prime, I don't see him losing ever, close to a lock bet as you can get at HW imo. He could jab Overeem on conscious. I don't see Overeem's path to victory. He might be more technical but he is just over matched badly with age and strength.

What are peoples thoughts on Bisping vs GSP.

Personally I think Bisping is one of the best value bets in MMA this year. Lots of question marks given GSP's time off. Don't see how GSP if the fav here.

Another great bet that the bookies are pricing incorrectly imo. Just don't see how Bisping loses this tbh. GSP can only win on points, I think, and I don't think he will do that 50% of the time right now.

I'd be very surprised in fact shocked of Bisping does not win this fight.

Agree that Bisping should probably be the favorite. The only thing that gives me pause is that GSP is a very intelligent guy (for a UFC fighter) and he believes that he can win this fight, or he wouldn't have taken it. Also, GSP supposedly has a slight reach advantage (76 vs 75.5), has a ++ jab, and has youth on his side.

That having been said, ring rust should be a huge factor, size is a factor, and Bisping should be very difficult for GSP to take down, which implies that this is going to be more of a boxing match / grappling against the cage. I think there could be a fair amount of casual fan money coming in on GSP as we get closer to the main event, so will be interesting to see how the line moves.

Line already moved in favor of Bisping but agree that people might bet GSP and it might move back in favor of Bisping.

Does anyone see another path to victory other than points for GSP? Is GSP really going to keep Bisping off of him all night with his jab? I mean Bisping isn't great and obviously he's a dog vs the top 5 or so MW but he is legit and often kind of underrated. He's got great cardio and he's got a ton of volume, heart, he can take a punch etc. I just don't see GSP winning on points, I don't see him winning by ko or submission so that only leaves Bisping to bet.

Doctor stoppage due to Bisping's eye issues is possible if GSP's jab is on point like it was against Koscheck

I'm waiting to see them face off to decide, I originally liked Bisping but the line's moved a decent amount, everyone is on Bisping it seems and it's headed towards a pick'em. People forget how good GSP's skillset is, although his mental state and physical state after a few years off are both question marks. I'm probably going to bet this one on sheer size, if Bisping is way bigger I go Bisping but if the weight advantage looks less than a full weight class I may end up on GSP, I was close to sold on Bisping but finding out GSP has a longer reach is a pretty big deal in what's likely to be a standup at range battle.

GSP is a machine, he even sounds like a machine.

I suspect ring rust wont be an issue with him, also towards that point.. what has GSP been doing since he has been out of the cage.

training and getting better... guy is a gym rat of all gym rats and he was nicely out of the media for a long arse time, like a secret car getting built or some thing in the back garage and no one is allowed to look, he must be in tremendous shape.

its going to be fast paced fight.... I think GSP comes in looking far better than any one could have envisaged.

I would not go lumping huge sums on either fighter,

fight to go +2.5 imo,

I think GSP is under estimating Bisping, his pace, his dynamic fluid game.


Bisping is legit.

great fight.

Edit: no more MMA betting for me I cant hit the ground with a dart.

In great shape? did you see his stomach?

Don't forget that GSP will put on weight as well and will likely face some problems fighting at that weight. Bisping will almost certainly have weight on him as well.

GSP could replicate Kennedy's game plan and just dry hump Bisping for 5 rounds.

4 years off is a long time. Other then Cruz ring rust has effected pretty much every other fighter that has taken significant time off.

I think Bisping has at least a 50% shot at winning this fight. So at odds of 2.2 pretty happy to take him.

While cage rust didn't seem to effect Cruz in his first match what do you think about the fight vs Garbrandt? Was Cruz his usual self in that fight. It can take more than a few fights before one settles back into a grove imo!

Honestly I think Cruz is in decline due to wear and tear on the body rather than anything mental. He looked slightly off vs Faber too even tho he won easily. I hope I'm wrong and or he's healthy after time off. Also possible Cody is just that good well know after the tj fight

I def think that gsp will go in trying to outwrestle bisping. That boxing jab gameplan against koscheck was only employed against an absolute elite wrestler. Bisping has been taken down a lot in his career but at the same time he is one of the hardest workers on the bottom to get up. I haven't seen the odds on the fight going the distance but I see that as the most likely outcome, and I would be really worried about close round judging decisions.

One other point, I have heard some talk about bisping considering retirement after the fight. Whenever I hear this in mma and boxing I do really like betting against the fighter, although neither of these guys is jumping for joy about fighting any of the monsters that are in the top five at 185. In fact I think both fighters are dogs against all of the top five.

Agreed, first time I've ever seen his footwork anything but amazing was against Cody.

I definitely think wear and tear has something to do with Cruz. I feel like he was 80-90% at this best vs Garbrandt, which is enough to manhandle others in the division, but not Garbrandt.
Still, not saying he would beat Garbrandt at his 100%, just saying with age, injuries, general wear and tear, he has lost a bit of his athleticism which is crucial in lighter divisions.
At HW it is more likely you will see older and lesser athletic fighters beat younger and more athletic fighers since you can get away with experience way more than you can at lower classes.

Yeah I hope Cruz has what it takes to beat Rivera still. Will be an interesting fight, winner definitely deserves the Cody/TJ winner.

Hopefully we get lines for the rest of the 216 prelims soon no bets yet but a few spots i'm hoping for

Overeem's disclosed purses for his past three fights:

UFC 203 vs Stipe: $800k
UFC 209 vs Hunt: $750k
UFC 213 vs Werdum: $800k

The Hunt and Werdum fights weren't even main events, let alone title fights. So just saying: if I were in the twilight of my career and getting paid $750k or more just to turn up, I'd say yes to pretty much any fight they offered me too :P

Reem is also running out of time if he wants another title shot in the UFC. It basically has to be THIS run right now after the gift Reem decision and with Cain injured (Cain is basically guaranteed a title shot when he gets back) and Werdum is back in the mix too if he beats Lewis this weekend given the Reem decision was questionable.

Ngannou is basically next in line if he wins his next fight and Cain is still injured, this is a chance for Reem to take his spot and effectively be the #1 contender again. The only other fresh matchup for Reem out of the top contenders if Volkov, he's fought everyone else already except Cain who is both injured and a worse matchup for him than Ngannou (Tybura might join that list if he beats Hunt, but he's booked). Otherwise Reem would have to fight lower top 15 guys and with his chin if he gets knocked out by any of them that's basically the end of his chance at a rematch for the title with Stipe.

Also yeah, he's getting paid now and he's not getting any younger and it's not like any of the top 5-6 guys at HW are easy fights for him. The only fights that would make sense for Reem right now (in a spot where if he wins his next fight he could fight for the title if things line up) are Volkov, Ngannou and Cain who is perma-injured. Volkov's more technical but Ngannou's more of a physical beast, Reem is a better striker on paper than any of them but with his chin none of them are easy fights and the Cain fight is probably a disaster for him if Cain's healthy.

lets not forget Reem will be the best striker Ngannou has faced and he is not that much smaller if at all. His only issue is his chin, but he is pretty smart about it, keeps his distance, uses his kicks. He might has the edge in the clinch and uses the knees. He still was able to beat plenty of other hard hitters with his glass chin. Great matchup, really looking forward to this fight, I think the line will be pretty close to even.