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Old Yesterday, 02:30 AM   #43726
SwoopAE
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Re: MMA Thread

I didn't catch the main but in every Bendo fight ever he fixes his hair at least 3 times a round to the detriment of his fighting
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Old Yesterday, 10:57 AM   #43727
RB87
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by RB87 View Post
Forgot this card was on early. Threw up two bets on Matchbook on Sasaki and Andrade and thankfully Andrade got matched at 3.7.

Looking at Bellator like Ayala, Patricky Pitbull and Daley as good underdog bets.
Hit Daley at 4.2, Pitbull at 3.1 both on Matchbook and took Ayala at 2.75. Getting matched often on Matchbook when I throw up underdogs at pretty decent prices.
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Old Today, 01:54 PM   #43728
LEMONZEST
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Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
I didn't catch the main but in every Bendo fight ever he fixes his hair at least 3 times a round to the detriment of his fighting
lol. yeah his hair was completely dishevelled by r3. BH went from being a fighter I kinda like watching to someone that makes me cringe. He is done IMO.
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Old Today, 02:29 PM   #43729
Malachii
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Re: MMA Thread

Thoughts on UFC 216? I faded the Page Van Zant hype train at +125, but that's my only move so far.

I think PVZ is all marketing and hype, people overrate how good of a fighter she is because she's super hot. She's also doing a bunch of appearances on TV shows and seems more interested in using MMA to become a D-List celebrity than in actually being a good UFC fighter.

I'm also very tempted to bet on Fabricio Werdum and will probably pull the trigger. He's 40 years old but he still looks good and is vastly more skilled than Derek Brunson. I think that Derek Brunson has maybe a 20 - 25% puncher's chance, but otherwise this should be a rout - it's basically a fight between a moderately skilled guy who is built like an NFL linebacker and a world-class BJJ guy who also has significantly better standup. Pretty attractive at -255 imo.

I have a high opinion of Kevin Lee and will probably end up betting him, but I don't think he's a favorite in this fight, just that he's probably more of a 40-45% dog than a 2-1 dog. Kevin Lee reminds me of a young GSP (his standup isn't as good as GSP, but he's an even better athlete / wrestler) but Tony Ferguson has a very dangerous guard and is significantly more dangerous on his feet.

In order for Kevin Lee to win, he needs to secure the take down, control a very dangerous BJJ guy from the top, and either submit him or GnP him for 5 rounds. He definitely has the tools to do that, but if Tony Ferguson can successfully stop the takedowns / neutralize him from the bottom, he should be able to win standing up due to his reach advantage and superior boxing.
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Old Today, 03:56 PM   #43730
anteatereater
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Re: MMA Thread

PVZ-Eye expected to be pulled. PVZ hurt.

https://www.mmafighting.com/2017/9/2...d-from-ufc-216

""Fabricio Werdum... He's 40 years old but he still looks good and is vastly more skilled than Derek Brunson.""

Ha ha. It's Derrick Lewis.

Last edited by anteatereater; Today at 04:04 PM.
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Old Today, 06:45 PM   #43731
Malachii
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Re: MMA Thread

Yeah I meant Derrick Lewis, obviously. Guess the morning coffee hadn't really kicked in yet. Do you have anything of value to add on how you see the fight going down?
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Old Today, 08:11 PM   #43732
maglame
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Re: MMA Thread

Motivated by the variance I've observed I updated my back testing to see what the model would have realized over the last few years. I've got the closing line on pinnacle for pretty much all PPV, Fight Night and UFC on Fox events starting in 2012. This is the biggest assumption in the back testing, as you never get the actual closing line, but something close to it. Other things, like the model parameter estimates, are all updated before each betting period, and as the variable selection and parameter estimates are stable over time they are unlikely to skew the results with hindsight bias.



This is the result of risking $1 every bet. Obviously it scales to whatever bet size pinnacle will accept, although only what they would accept for most underdogs on the prelims as I can't account for the bias varying bet size with pinnacles betting limits would cause (the model picks about 2 underdogs for every favorite).

Overall this represents ~7% ROI. There were no losing years, but obviously there are some rough stretches. Not sure what to make of it in conclusion, but thought it was interesting enough to post.
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