Bleh. Oh well that wasn't a -555 performance, but a losing is losing so. Model goes 9-1 in picks, I go 2-2 for a tiny profit.

Managed to get GGG at ev, feel like ive just been violated

Branch put on a pretty good performance there

Rockhold is such a great offensive grappler... but Bobby Knuckles is going to be the MW champ soon (unless GSP is somehow a legit 185er now and better than ever) and he has the best TDD in the division

Pretty good card for me, won a few k, makes up for a couple of weaker cards lately

Rockhold is such a cocky prick, I can't wait for him to get KO'd again by a fighter I like (basically anyone that isn't Romero out of the contenders)

Makes sense to give Rockhold a keep busy fight on the November card just in case anything happens with GSP or Bisping he could step in for either of them. Jacare or Romero would make sense if either of them isn't busy while Whittaker's out injured, Whittaker just gets a title shot whenever he's healthy now with his Interim and the division can go on in the meantime. Weidman would make sense too, his first fight with Rockhold was close until the spinning fail, he's an ex champ coming off a win now and no love lost with Rockhold. Weidman's from NY too and it's a NY card. Now I want that actually as the 5th main card fight, neither took significant damage in their last fight, Weidman vs Rockhold 2 set it up.

UFC Japan next week, i'm tempted to get on Shogun even though OSP crushed him last time because OSP seems to have regressed a bit as a fighter and Shogun's been past his prime forever but doesn't seem to be deteriorating any further and while he's a million in fight years he's only 35. OSP's still only lost to elite fighters though so idk.

Maybe Lim even though he's not as good as I thought he was, I don't know anything about his 5-0 vs cans opponent.

Formiga will probably be unbettable against Sasaki but if he's not that's obvious given Sasaki's last win, while he's a talented grappler was more the result of Scoggins being a mistake-prone fighter.

I wonder what the odds will be for Gomi vs Maestro DHK, could be anything. I'd take either guy as a decent underdog.

Gadelha seems like a clear bet against Andrade if she's only a small fav

So many fights I have no idea where the lines will open for

Went 1-1 but lost a bit because I had a much bigger position on Lombard than Hall. I actially didnt see the Lonbard fight but it sounds like he was up 2-0 then found a way to lose. But, I got lucky with Hall so whatever, onto the next one.

Too bad Alves backed out, I really think Perry woulda smashed him.

I have a reeeeally hard time seeing Rockhold beating Wittaker.

Yeah it's a very bad matchup for him I agree. Whittaker has the best TDD in the division and is an aggressive boxer with a chin which is basically the fighter you design to beat Rockhold.

Lombard won the first easily and tore his leg up with leg kicks, then the second was closer but Lombard landed the cleaner shots but with Smith doing a bit better as the round went on, then Smith came on strong in the third and was all fired up and just went at Lombard and knocked him out

Overall it was a fantastic night of fights, the only bad fight was Ledet vs Cake Rashad whose real name I forget, and we've seen far worse fights than that.

Would recommend watching the card top to bottom to anyone who missed it, fights were def more entertaining than most of the recent cards we've had and lots of finishes.

Dwyer came out of his depression ,ha :-), and man cave eventually and did his post fight.. (he was on GGG).

Hirota missed weight by 5lbs and looked like he was about to die on the scale

No bets for me for the card yet

I kind of want to bet Okami due to the price but he doesn't match up great with OSP or anything. I kind of want to bet Gomi because fake DHK isn't that good, but Gomi is done. I kind of want to bet Lim but he's let me down so many times. I kind of want to bet Rosa just to fade Hirota, but that would be the only reason. Kind of want to bet Gadelha but the price isn't that appealing above -200.

Maybe a Gadleha/Formiga parlay? Sasaki has the chance of a random sub and Andrade has a slim chance just because she's a tank but Gadelha is stronger and technically better at everything I don't see either of them losing much

I guess i'll sleep on it and decide just before the card but no bets for now.

Welp. This is one of those times I don't believe in this model at all. But here goes nothing:

Okami +375
Andrade +227
Gomi +296
Da Silva +160
Sasaki +326
Anzai +213

Went for 2/3u per bet because I have no faith in this. Andrade seems like shes going to lose to Gadelha everywhere. Dunno what to make of the main event tbh. Gomi is beat. Da Silva is fighting a guy with one MMA fight (but a good kickboxer). I guess that's fine, but not even an amazing price. Sasaki I don't even know who is. Same for Anzai.

EDIT: Just realized I think I remember Sasaki. Won a bet when he subbed someone I believe. Think he was losing the fight badly too. Let's go Sasaki! Recognize Anzai's face too, but can't place him.

UFN 117 Risk $1533.25

Yushin Okami (+400) vs Ovince Saint Preux $50.00 for $200.00
Yushin Okami/Ovince Saint Preux Over 1½ (-180) $90.00 for $50.00

Jessica Andrade +3½ points (-185) vs Claudia Gadelha $138.75 for $75.00
Claudia Gadelha wins by 3 round decision (-115) $57.50 for $50.00

Dong Hyun Kim/Takanori Gomi Under 1½ (-167) $167.00 for $100.00
Dong Hyun Kim wins in round 1 (-115) $57.50 for $50.00

Gokhan Saki/Luis Henrique da Silva Under 1½ (-180) $180.00 for $100.00

Rolando Dy (+145) vs Teruto Ishihara $100.00 for $145.00
Rolando Dy wins by 3 round decision (+325) $40.00 for $130.00

Ulka Sasaki (+355) vs Jussier Formiga $50.00 for $177.50
Ulka Sasaki wins by submission (+1400) $15.00 for $210.00
Ulka Sasaki wins in round 3 (+2525) $10.00 for $252.50
Ulka Sasaki wins in round 3 (+2525) $10.00 for $252.50
Ulka Sasaki/Jussier Formiga draw (+8000) $10.00 for $800.00

Keita Nakamura (+115) vs Alex Morono $100.00 for $115.00

Syuri Kondo (-115) vs Chan-Mi Jeon $115.00 for $100.00
Syuri Kondo wins by submission (+650) $25.00 for $162.50

Luke Jumeau/Shinsho Anzai Under 2½ (+132) $75.00 for $99.00
Luke Jumeau wins by TKO/KO (+250) $40.00 for $100.00

Daichi Abe/Hyun Gyu Lim Over 1½ (+137) $50.00 for $68.50

Fights to end in KO/TKO over 3½ (-185) $92.50 for $50.00
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 4½ (+168) $30.00 for $50.40
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 5½ (+459) $15.00 for $68.85
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 6½ (+1471) $5.00 for $73.55
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 7½ (+6975) $5.00 for $348.75

Keita Nakamura/Alex Morono FOTN award winner (+600) $10.00 for $60.00

First bet of the card Kondo -138 just trusting the steam not really familiar with either fighter

Probably going to get on Okami, Gadelha or Gadelha dec and a couple others taking a look at all the lines now, maybe Formiga dec too

Well. First fight first win. That's half-way to break even!

This is what I have so far

Kondo -138
Kondo DEC +150
Nakamura DEC +250
Gadleha DEC -110 (biggest bet of the card narrowly)
Okami wins in r1 +3300 (small obv)
Okami DEC +700
Saki/Da Silva u1.5 -175
Kim/Gomi u1.5 -175

Hard to say who won r1, very close

Live betting seems to lean Jeon narrowly, commentary being biased for Kondo makes it hard to score, Jeon landed the bigger shots probably but Kondo was the clear aggressor and may have landed more

Close r1, I def should have taken the fight to go the distance here as well as the Kondo bets

Decent move to Kondo in livebetting as she rocks her. Hopefully she can take over but not finish

Interesting that Kondo -s -400 in live betting when it could be 1-1 in rounds (although could be 2-0) I wonder if they have inside info from the judges that Kondo won the first on two cards or if their scorer just had r1 for Kondo

She's def a fav atm since she won r2, hard to say what true price is as r1 was a flip

Sherdog had r1 2-1 for Kondo, I had it lean Jeon but theres a very good case for Kondo too definition of a coinflip round

I guess if Kondo wins r3 its a clear decision and if Jeon does we're getting a split either way

Nice start should be up two bets, clear 29-28 or 30-27 for Kondo depending how the judges saw r1

Well one judge went full ******, 29-28 Jeon is inexcusable, does he think she won the second or third? Granted my stream went out for a few seconds in the third but looked like a super clear round and the second was too.

Fortunately two judges got it right, kind of surprised no one had it 29-28 Kondo which was my scorecard but 30-27 is totally fine too as r1 was 5050

I thought Kondo had all three. Last two pretty clearly. Both landed, but Kondo landed cleaner and harder I thought. Decent scrap though. SW continues to be a pretty fun division even lower down the ranks.

Model is 2-1 so far. The worse the model does in picks, the better my bets go. Kinda ironic

Should be 10-9 Nakamura due to the body kick that rocked him, hopefully Nakamura can keep bringing it without finding the finish (sigh @ decision bets being a nightmare to sweat)

Interesting livebetting swung hard to Morono in r2 even though Nakamura's landing the cleaner shots, I guess it's clean shots vs octagon control and volume like in r1

I actually have it 20-18 Nakamura although both rounds were very close and you can def make a case the other way

Livebetting has Morono -225 which is interesting and I def disagree

Sherdog has it 20-18, 20-18, 18-20 interestingly so it depends if the judges value quality over quantity I think

Def heavy value on +162 after two rounds imo but sigh no livebetting in aus

edit: still +137 after getting the takedown. Weird.

wow that's a LOT of blood from a not that huge punch

I think Nakamura's enroute to a 30-27 but i'm very worried about a robbery granted it'd have to be against the home fighter

Yep I have it 30-27 Nakamura but all 3 rounds were close and scorecards could be all over the place.

Would be an awesome start to go 3/3 if the judges get it right

Whew, judges get it right imo, 29-28 split for Nakamura. You can honestly make a case for almost any score there

3-0 start for me. Need to figure out whether to pull the trigger on Ishihara and Formiga or not.

Decided to make a small sweat bet on Formiga straight up at -400. I almost fired a bigger one on decision at evens but talked myself out of it.

Let's keep the perfect card rolling.

Sasaki was getting beaten up badly in his last fight before Scoggins made a mistake and Sasaki subbed him but Formiga is nowhere near as mistake prone as Scoggins and has better BJJ and shouldn't fall into a submission.

This is the sort of fight i'd love to take a -3.5 pts line but haven't got any 5d atm the -3.5 pts -165 would have been my bet of choice here.