It's a deal!

Edit: Added a smaller bet on Spitz.

I don't think i've had a perfect card where i've bet every single fight since UFC 143

Let's see if we can make it tonight, let's go Spitz.

This is going well. Seemed slightly early stoppage but Spitz was almost certainly going to put him out

3/3 now including 2/2 dogs

Def should have gone bigger there given Spitz reach/athleticism advantage at +178

Oh well. Can't complain.

OAM up next, let's keep the heater alive.

Was looking over my model output and noticed I had capped Spitz/Hamilton at basically exactly 50/50. No idea why I didn't bet it earlier, but got in there just in time lol!

Hah, nice guys. That was hilarious.

Nice work. Your model likes OAM right? There's been minor Martin steam but not enough that i'm concerned. OAM out to +101 now. Couple books have Martin +100 but i'm going to overrule the steam that i'd normally consider betting and say I think OAM is a small fav.

It liked OAM, but not a lot. The -112 I took was pretty marginal. Also for some reason whenever I bet a favorite (at least at the time) with the model they lose. 100% guaranteed

Not if my perfect card has anything to say about it today (if I hit a perfect card including Moraes and didn't have the whole card parlayed i'll be marginally sad about that though lol)

Kind of tempted by Lombard wins in r1 but I don't think that's better than his moneyline anymore now that the ML is out to +140. I might decide last second during walkouts based on how Lombard looks

Decided to add on fight ends in tko/ko/dq either fighter at -155 for the Lombard/Martin fight as my play for that one

OAM looking good

Added a little more Usman dec so that I make a small profit on an Usman dec win now, still win more on Moraes straight up or get scooped on an Usman finish

Scary moments when OAM should be up 2 rounds

Hopefully he can hold on if so he should win a 29-28

Come on OAM just hang out there and defend the choke and take no risks, should be an easy 29-28 if he does

Cruz has great analysis on commentary that Martin should have given up that position to go for the finish because he's going to lose a 28-29 now assuming competent judging. Pretty clear 29-28 for OAM

Pretty happy with OAM bet regardless, he wins a 30-27 a lot if he doesn't get caught in that guillotine/darce on the way down in r3

...which round did that split decision judge score for Martin? loljudges, at least two judges got it right.

4/4 now guess i'd better find a bet for the Ledet/Anyanwu fight to keep the perfect card dream alive

Well. The reverse jinx + Swoop rungood = narrow win! Freerolling now with the two big underdogs I have left.

Taking a small bet on Ledet -400 for this one, this is supposed to be a showcase fight for him and the other guy is a journeyman, risky since it's HW but it should be an easy win for Ledet, decent steam that side etc

You so sure he won round 1? Wasn't that clear to me.

I mean it was competitive but seemed clear-ish to me based on landing the cleaner shots and getting a takedown (they're using the old rules not the new rules tonight)

All 3 sherdog guys had it for OAM. It wouldn't have been the biggest robbery ever if they gave it to Martin but I thought it was a clear OAM win.

I guess a few media cards had it for Martin so a SD OAM seems about right given the consensus

Tristen Critchfield
Sherdog.com 29-28 Aubin-Mercier
Chris Nelson
Sherdog.com 29-28 Aubin-Mercier
Brian Knapp
Sherdog.com 29-28 Aubin-Mercier
MMAJunkie.com 29-28 Aubin-Mercier
Craig Amos
BleacherReport.com 29-28 Aubin-Mercier
MMAMania.com 29-28 Aubin-Mercier
Matthew Wells
FanSided.com 29-28 Aubin-Mercier
Rob Tatum
CombatPress.com 29-28 Aubin-Mercier
Jed Meshew
MMAFighting.com 29-28 Aubin-Mercier
Ryan Frederick
WrestlingObserver.com 29-28 Aubin-Mercier
Paul Fontaine
WrestlingObserver.com 28-28 DRAW
Eddie Mercado
BloodyElbow.com 28-28 DRAW
Nick Baldwin
BloodyElbow.com 28-29 Martin
Steven Kelliher
Tapology.com 28-29 Martin
Steve Duncan
mma.uno 28-29 Martin
MMABrasil.com.br 28-29 Martin

10 OAM , 2 Draw, 4 Martin although the 2 draw ones are kidding themselves under the old judging criteria with less liberal 10-8s, the third wasn't even a 10-8 under the new criteria let alone the old so that would make it 12 to 4 that scored the first for OAM.

In hindsight I think Ledet SUB may have been the value play but oh well straight up gogo time he could easily win via any method here so I guess thats fine too. Happy with what I have on it

Anyanwu does not look like an athletic dude who has speed and cardio.

Anyanwu looks like what would happen if Rashad Evans exclusively ate cake for a year straight

Ledet's going to knock him out with a counter soon I think

Closer than it should have been due to Ledet fighting conservatively but still a 10-9 Ledet on volume landed

First outright terrible round of the night in any fight

As long as he doesn't let the boos get to him and make a mistake Ledet should win easily, Cake Rashad looks tired already

You're not Anderson Silva Ledet, stop it with the peanut fight IQ and just circle around and punch this guy in the face

Well there certainly wasn't value in the sub with this gameplan so i'm glad I have straight up

Ledet just has to eat the boos and keep jabbing him and hope he goes down and win a 30-27 if he doesn't. Pretty bad fight.