I'm expecting at this point to be on OAM, Moraes (just because the price is so long), maybe even Branch if he continues to get longer, Hall, Burns and maybe Lombard if he doesn't look worse than expected at weigh ins. I don't think Branch matches up well at all with Rockhold but at some point if he hits +600 or more you just have to especially when Rockhold is so hittable even if offensively he's miles better than Branch. Alternatively i'm considering Rockhold ITD at -155 as I do think he finishes Branch more often than not.

No bets yet though I think i'll wait for weigh ins on this one as there are no spots that are must bet and i'm likely to be fading steam on some dogs.

i think rockhold will merk him. hes just been super unlucky.

I had Branch by KO / TKO at +950 and 5Dimes cancelled it, lol. Must have gotten a little too much action on that one.

But I agree that if there's any value in that one at all, it's on Branch. Rockhold is an arrogant f*ck and is already talking about how he thinks GSP / Bisping is a joke and he how he couldn't find anyone else to fight him so he had to settle for Branch, etc. Arrogance is an extremely dangerous quality in fighters.

Meanwhile, for David Branch, this is the fight of his life. He's a good fighter, and although obviously on paper Rockhold is better in all areas, it's still a fight and anything can happen. Branch has been disrespected repeatedly by Rockhold (think about it: A white guy from a middle class background disrespecting a black guy who grew up poor. If you're in David Branch's shoes, that's gonna piss you off) and also just had a kid. Emotional events like that can sometimes lead to huge upsets, see Buster Douglas vs Mike Tyson right after his mother died.

I don't think I'm going to bet on Branch, but I certainly don't think there's any value on Rockhold at these prices.

Edit: And to clarify, I'm not saying that Buster Douglas's mother death directly led to the upset, just that a fighter's emotional state matters in my opinion and things like death in a family / recent birth of a child can influence a fighter's emotional state.

Yeah I think against Magny he just badly gassed out. That was at welterweight, and I think he's too big for that weight class and it was costing him some stamina. He was completely dominating Magny early, but Magny weathered the storm and was able to take it to him after Lombard gassed out.

I also get the concerns about his performances vs Henderson and Hendricks, but I think that stylistically they were much tougher matchups for him because of their wrestling and power. If you think about it, Henderson and Hendricks are very similar fighters, and I think it's a style that Lombard doesn't necessarily matchup all that well against. Which makes sense if you think about it, Lombard's a Judo guy with great power who likes to bull rush people, so it makes sense that very good wrestlers who also have big power would give him problems.

But I think Smith is a great matchup for him, for reasons previously discussed. I guess we'll see what happens, but I personally think this is a pretty good spot.

Sure in that he's objectively a fav over Bisping and lost, but he got arrogant against Bisping wading in with his chin out there with no regard for his opponent and got punished for it

The more I think about it the more I like Lombard given it's a big step down in competition and he was winning the Hendo and Magny fights in the early stages and nearly finished both but i'll probably wait to see what he looks like at weigh ins obviously itll be worse than when he was on steroids but want to make sure there hasn't been a big deterioration in physique since his last fight with him getting older

Boxing Matches Gennady Golovkin v Saul Alvarez
17-09-2017 04:00
Method of Victory
Golovkin KO/TKO @ 13/8
Your Bets
Win
Single: Golovkin KO/TKO @ 13/8
1 line at £35.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £35.00
Potential returns: £91.88

Took Branch at 5.3.
Rockholds had a lot of time out. Coming back from a KO and been at odds with UFC management for a while.

He is better then Branch everywhere but still Branch is no slouch. Rockhold could start slow or get clipped again . I think Branch is pretty underrated and his performance against Jotko has probably added to that.

Might also go against Mike Perry is this Reyes has anything about him.

Triple G and Connor in the octagon. You heard here first.

Why on earth would GGG do that? a) he'd get humiliated inside a round, b) he can make more money boxing one would assume, he's getting 10m+ppv for the Canelo fight - I guess if WME want to throw 20m at him and a share of PPV buys it could happen. Conor would have to vacate at LW though unless it was for the belt, you can only take so many non title fights and remain champ.

I don't see why he'd do it unless he loses to Canelo though (if he wins he's basically the biggest/only non HW draw in boxing with Floyd's retirement right)

I'd be down to watch Conor beat up an elite boxer in an MMA fight though if it happened

Still waiting for weigh ins + for some of the books like b365 to release all their props before I make my plays for this card

Think Alvarez wins this quite easily, either by KO or on points, he is never getting ko'd in my opinion and is a better boxer than triple g. He has also stepped up his game big time, don't look at some of his earlier fights, like vs floyd, he's not the same boxer, he's miles better now.

Triple g is very hittable and Canelo will prove too much for him.

I'm hedging by points, think it will go to a dec often.

It might be one of the most eagerly anticipated fights in modern boxing history?

Mayweather vs Conor was a circus act, this is 1970s classic boxing stuff between supermen. fans across several generations tuning in from every country globally will be watching.

huge fight.

HUGE

edit: Small goes to draw maybe worth a small play as well.... Canelo is Solid

very interesting fight man!!!

Going with Aubin-Mercier -112, Moraes +600 and Branch +425.

Ended up getting on Burns, Hall, OAM and Moraes. I expect Usman to win but the Moraes price is way too high, OAM fight should be close to a flip but he looked bigger at weigh ins and I think he has more upside; Hall's getting a step down and while Jotkjo's on a nice run I think it's closer to a pickem and Burns should beat Saggo, Saggo is the definition of 'guy who beats lower level fighters and loses to mid or above level fighters' and I think Burns is mid tier for the UFC and should be able to handle him especially if any portion of the fight takes place on the ground.

Didn't get the best prices as I don't have money on 5d atm, got -145 for Burns, -111 for OAM, +600 for Moraes, and +176 for Hall. Burns is my biggest bet of the four although the to win amount's bigger on Moraes obv.

I'd have bet Lombard too but there's some fairly heavy steam against him so passing. Thinking about the under in Rockhold/Branch too and possibly also in Lombard/Smith under too.

Edit: added u2.5 rounds for the main too at +110 and some u3.5 rounds at -150. I think Rockhold will finish him if he's winning and there's also a chance Branch could catch his chin so I slightly prefer it to just taking Rockhold ITD

UFN 116 Risk $2145.50

David Branch (+450) vs Luke Rockhold $100.00 for $450.00
David Branch +5½ points (+180) $75.00 for $135.00
David Branch scorecards = no action (+460) $50.00 for $230.00
David Branch wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+933) $20.00 for $186.60
David Branch wins in round 1 (+2000) $10.00 for $200.00
David Branch wins in round 2 (+2500) $10.00 for $250.00

Mike Perry/Alex Reyes Over 1½ (+137) $75.00 for $102.75

Anthony Smith/Hector Lombard Over 1½ (-127) $127.00 for $100.00

Jason Gonzalez (+355) vs Gregor Gillespie $75.00 for $266.25
Jason Gonzlaez +3½ points (+175) $75.00 for $131.25
Jason Gonzalez wins by submission (+1095) $25.00 for $273.75

Kamaru Usman -3½ points (-360) vs Sergio Moraes $270.00 for $75.00
Kamaru Usman wins by TKO/KO (+242) $40.00 for $96.80

Azunna Anyanwu/Justin Ledet Over 1½ (-142) $142.00 for $100.00
Azunna Anyanwu/Justin Ledet Over 1½ (-142) $142.00 for $100.00

Tony Martin (+105) vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier $200.00 for $210.00

Anthony Hamilton/Daniel Spitz Under 1½ (+107) $75.00 for $80.25

Uriah Hall (+190) vs Krzysztof Jotko $75.00 for $142.50
Uriah Hall wins by TKO/KO (+390) $35.00 for $136.50

Gilbert Burns/Jason Saggo Over 2½ (-215) $64.50 for $30.00

Anthony Smith/Hector Lombard FOTN award winner (+625) $10.00 for $62.50

Round Robin of 45 two-team parlays. Risking $450.00 for $5,754.23
David Branch (+425) vs Luke Rockhold
Alex Reyes (+375) vs Mike Perry
Hector Lombard (+125) vs Anthony Smith
Jason Gonzalez (+345) vs Gregor Gillespie
Sergio Moraes (+550) vs Kamaru Usman
Azunna Anyanwu (+350) vs Justin Ledet
Tony Martin (+100) vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Daniel Spitz (+175) vs Anthony Hamilton
Uriah Hall (+175) vs Krzysztof Jotko
Jason Saggo (+125) vs Gilbert Burns

Added a little more on Moraes and hedged it to break even with Usman DEC. I think Moraes can survive on the bottom easily and that Usman's fairly unlikely to KO him standing. Usman DEC is by far the most likely outcome imo.

I'm basically risking 750 if Usman finishes him to win 3k if Moraes wins and break even on an Usman decision now which i'm pretty happy with

Burns looks good so far. 10-9 I don't think Saggo has anything for him.

lol @ Saggo's corner saying he definitely won the round, he almost certainly didn't

Closer round then BOOM that has to be KOTN

I must say that's not how I saw Burns winning, glad I had straight up as I fully expected a sub or dec

Let's go Hall. We want aggressive Hall today.

Baffling that Hall/Jotko is the second fight on the undercard when it's arguably the second best fight on the card.

Well this doesn't seem promising.

Holy **** how did Hall survive that

I hope Jotko gasses now absurd that he couldn't finish

10-8 Jotko but I don't think this one is going the distance. I can't help but feel like Hall might land some weird flying kick or whatever despite how r1 went

roffflll. I hope you are this lucky the rest of the night Swoop as we're on same dogs xd

Yeah baby! I'd written that one off after the first round, great comeback!

I couldn't help but feel like that was coming once Hall started throwing

Aggressive Hall is so good, he's just so tentative 95% of the time, if he fought like Matt Brown or Robbie Lawler stylistically he'd be a contender

Great start to the card for me now 2/2

This is the best start to an undercard we've had in a while good fights

Moraes by triangle choke.

On that note it's been forever since i've seen a triangle choke finish in the UFC. Maybe tonight? I'd be happy with Branch clipping Rockhold for my under there although I expect Rockhold usually wins

On fire so I guess i'd better get on the next one. Thinking about fading Hamilton, lower level HWs etc and he's not that good to be -200

Threw a few hundred on Spitz +178 thatll do. Smaller bet though