Magny is a workhorse and physically gifted he just doesn't have whatever that 'it' factor is that makes a top 5 fighter.

The three reasons i'm not on RDA are he's a bit past his prime, he's fighting a weight class above his natural weight class and it's -200 and while i'm pretty sure he's a favourite i'm not sure he's that big of a favourite

I've been a fan of MMA for a few years now but never placed any bets on it, does anyone have any advice or good info sources to help me start? I'd imagine there's little value in huge accas and I'm better off opting for more individual bets?

Correct, parlays are generally -EV and are more for entertainment value

Which country are you located in? Try and find a book with some nice value props. If you can bet with bet365, that's solid. So is 5dimes for props, although 5dimes does NOT store your info securely (their databse was hacked and my credit card details stolen) so i'd recommend using BTC if you use 5dimes.

Pinnacle is good. Unibet has some decent props. Your local books may have a good selection of props depending where you are.

Matchbook and Betfair can offer value on fight day as well

If you're starting with two books i'd recommend Pinnacle (low juice, very trustworthy etc) and bet365 (wide selection of off market props, also trustworthy, will ban winners eventually but usually only after you've won 5-10k net profit or so which won't be an issue unless you're betting big).

bestfightodds.com shows the lines from a bunch of the books to compare - make sure you have accounts on at least a few different books so that you're getting the best price available on your chosen fighter.

Thanks for the detailed reply Swoop. I'm based in the UK so I'll look into Bet365 and Betfair as I've already got accounts there and use bestfightodds to see if I'm missing much value elsewhere, I won't be betting huge amounts unless an event as favourable as Saturday night crops up again somehow so I doubt I'll have to worry about my account being locked!

You should def get Pinnacle as well for the spots where you're not betting something for being offmarket as it's lower vig than stuff like b365 unless you intend to actively put offers on betfair/matchbook exchanges trying to get the best price

Another UFC 215 question: How do you guys see Gilbert Melendez versus Jeremy Stephens going down?

I think it's going to be a great fight. I haven't watched enough tape on it to have a firm opinion on it yet, but here are my thoughts so far:

Melendez is moving down in weight, and you never know how a guy is going to look in a new weight class (granted he's fought there before but that was many years ago), so that's an argument for betting on Stephens. Stephens is also probably going to be the more motivated fighter, since this is a must win for him whereas Melendez is a little older and could maybe be thinking about retirement at some point.

On the other hand, Gilbert Melendez is the much smarter fighter, has a great jab, and does a really nice job of tailoring his game plans to his opponents, whereas Jeremy Stephens always more or less fights the same way. Jeremy Stephens is basically a worse version of Eddie Alvarez, and Melendez had a lot of success in that fight until gassing out in the third.

I could see Gilbert Melendez having a lot of success fighting behind his jab (a la the Eddie Alvarez fight) and mixing in some wrestling to try to take Jeremy Stephens down, kind of similar to how Frankie Edgar fought Stephens.

On the other hand, the way to beat Gilbert Melendez is to chop at his lead leg with leg kicks, and Stephens has good kicking ability. Stephens also has very good power, which is always a concern, and he did well in the boxing versus Frankie Edgar. Melendez doesn't have Edgar's takedown ability either, even though he's a pretty good wrestler, but I think his jab is much better than Frankie's.

I suppose I'm probably leaning towards Melendez as like a 60/40 favorite, but I'm going to bet it just because of the questions with respect to the weight cut. How do you guys feel about this one?

Its VERY good. Over 50% of the 40 or so fights are very very good, competitive, and FINISHED. Not tons of judges scores are needed on the Contender series.

I literally subscribed to fight pass just for this, i dont even need to sub to watch it if i really wanted, but i want to support this great idea + see a season 2.

this was the finale of the 8 week program fwiw. I think dana awarded 14 contracts without spoiling anything

Ahead of UFC Fight Night 115, UFC Fight Pass analyst Dan Hardy and broadcast partner John Gooden, along with Nick Peet, break down Saturday’s main event and other fights on the card.


Alexander Volkov no mug apparently.... ko artist


Pick at Sher

Heavyweights
Stefan Struve (28-8) vs. Alexander Volkov (28-6)

THE MATCHUP: The 6-foot-7 Volkov is used to being the taller man in the cage. Therefore, the aptly named “Skyscraper” will be an interesting challenge for him. Struve stands at a full seven feet tall, and his arms are three inches longer than the Russian’s. Stylistically, however, Volkov is the superior tall man. He possesses a strong and versatile kicking game, a dangerous selection of strikes in the clinch, and most importantly a long, straight jab to punish his opponents from range.

Struve’s jab is effective but inconsistent. Throughout his career, Struve has struggled to make the most of his build. Rather, his gargantuan body often seems like a hindrance. Footwork is one glaring issue. Struve’s height and length incentivize him to create space or take an angle whenever his opponent comes forward. He knows how to do so but will frequently lose focus and allow his smaller foes into the pocket. At that range, Struve’s spaghetti arms become a decided disadvantage. His high guard offers more openings than most, as a result. Struve often seems to win in spite of his long limbs, whereas Volkov’s frame is a necessary part of his style.

The men who beat Volkov typically do so by outwrestling or outgrappling him. Struve’s slight disadvantages on the feet tend to turn into glaring problems against skilled strikers, and his self-reported panic attacks do not bode well for the Dutchman’s fighting future. Still, Struve is an excellent submission grappler, with 17 submission wins on his record. Volkov will need to call on his footwork and wrestling to avoid this phase of the fight. Fortunately, the Russian has spent time recently with Black House’s Kenny Johnson, one of MMA’s best wrestling coaches. This training paid off in Volkov’s bout with Roy Nelson, as he stopped seven of eight takedown attempts. Still, Struve’s underrated wrestling has given him the takedown on over six of 10 attempts, so Volkov will need to watch his Ps and Qs inside.

THE ODDS: Volkov (-125), Struve (-105)

THE PICK: While their records and frames are similar, Volkov’s career has been much easier. This is not to say he has beaten unskilled opponents. Struve’s record might boast more recognizable names, but nonetheless, Volkov has taken on consistently tough opposition since his win over Brett Rogers in 2012. Throughout his career, Volkov has made use of his frame, controlling range, levering in the clinch and using angles to keep his lofty head out of reach. With both men facing an unusually tall opponent, those subtle skills will be the difference, especially in a five-round fight. The pick is Volkov by third-round TKO

Invicta FC 25 Risk $569.75

Raquel Pa'aluhi (-120) vs Yana Kunitskaya $240.00 for $200.00
Raquel Pa'aluhi (+172) vs Yana Kunitskaya ~$71.25 for ~$122.55
Sharon Jacobson (-178) vs Kali Robbins $133.50 for $75.00

Parlay:
Alexa Conners (-190) vs Katharina Lehner + Livia Renata Souza (-485) vs Janaisa Morandin $125.00 for $105.13

Alexander volkov to win in round 3
12/1
Stake £25
To Return £325

Struve v Volkov
Alexander Volkov to Win in Round 4 - Round Betting (5 Rounds)
stake £ 20,
pot returns £460
status open






When I close my eyes I am getting Struve with a big arse RED nose busted up and getting finished in r3,

if Struve wins, above small plays cut into my £200 profit (from the £160 bet on struve).

Both these guys are good, maybe better than their records appear so seeing it edge past 1st and 2nd is understandable but these are powerful dudes.

In that video above Dan highlights that Struve destroyed the current champion Stipe Miocic (September 29, 2012 - UFC on Fuel TV: Struve vs. Miocic - Rd 2 TKO).

You have to give some credit for that.


Volkov is going to need to fight a perfect fight and land convincingly,

I am not impressed with his power, his striking does not look enough to really trouble struve,

Interesting fight, nice one swoop for highlighting it.

vid is getting high praise all over,

Good place to bet Invicta fights from EU? With what I've heard about 5dimes/SportBet I kinda don't want to deposit there (your info ending up in the wrong hands etc.).

Really want Lehner xd

I didn't realise Melendez was still fighting. But without having done extensive tape study or anything on it, my gut reaction is: Melendez is old and I remember him looking shot before he took the past year off. And is it really a coincidence, especially for an aging fighter, that he looked shot after he failed a drug test?

I assume they've booked this fight for the "just bleed" crowd because they expect both guys to just stand and bang. If they do that, I'll probably take the guy that's less old and less shot in Stephens.

Melendez is the more skilled fighter in some respects but he was roiding in his prime and (hopefully) should be off roids plus he's getting up there in age.

35 is pretty old to be dropping to FW from LW, I assume he's lost some muscle due to coming off roids

It's pretty crazy that Melendez's only win in the last 5 years was against Diego Sanchez but a lot of them have been close fights

I'm leaning Stephens but he's not exactly known for his fight IQ, if Melendez comes to win instead of put on a show he might win even though he's past his prime and could hit completely shot in any given fight. Melendez's best bet is to try and do what he did against Pettis and just back Stephens up and grapple with him. If they stand and brawl I feel like Stephens will get the best of it but in a technical bout Melendez should have the edge.

Overall i'm probably just going to stay away from it or maybe make a small bet on Stephens but I want to see what Melendez looks like at weigh ins, if he looks good I might back him if he looks bad i'll get on Stephens.

Interesting that Edilov is such a huge fav in his UFC debut, he's basically a Kadyrov bodyguard from my understanding and therefore I hope Mihajlovic ends him. I'm done with Werdum too at this point and he used to be one of my favourite fighters along with anyone else who continues to prop up Kadyrov now that it's well known who and what he is.

Ended up adding 1u Holbrook -176 and 1u Khabilov -285 to go with my 5u Struve +110 as my plays for this weekend's card so far

Added: De Oliveira +250, Holbrook -171, Velickovic +175

UFN 115 Risk $3187.60

Stefan Struve (+110) vs Alexander Volkov $400.00 for $440.00
Stefan Struve wins by submission (+485) ~$27.00 for ~$130.95
Stefan Struve/Aleksander Volkov starts round 3 (-114) $45.60 for $40.00

Marion Reneau wins by submission (+320) $30.00 for $96.00
Marion Reneau wins in round 2 (+550) $15.00 for $82.50
Marion Reneau wins in round 3 (+1000) $10.00 for $100.00
Marion Reneau/Talita Bernardo fight ends in round 2 (+435) $25.00 for $108.75
Marion Reneau/Talita Bernardo fight ends in round 3 (+850) $20.00 for $170.00

Siyar Bahadurzada (-150) vs Rob Wilkinson $150.00 for $100.00
Siyar Bahadurzada (-150) vs Rob Wilkinson $150.00 for $100.00
Siyar Bahadurzada wins by TKO/KO (+155) $40.00 for $62.00
Rob Wilkinson wins by submission (+450) $25.00 for $112.50
Rob Wilkinson wins by submission (+450) $25.00 for $112.50
Rob Wilkinson wins by submission in round 1 (+700) ~$27.00 for ~$189.00

Bryan Barberena (+235) vs Leon Edwards $200.00 for $470.00
Bryan Barberena +3½ points (-165) $165.00 for $100.00
Bryan Barberena wins by submission (+2027) $20.00 for $405.40
Bryan Barberena wins in round 3 (+2450) $20.00 for $490.00
Bryan Barberena wins by submission in round 3 (+7500) ~$27.00 for ~$2025.00

Darren Till (-200) vs Bojan Velickovic $200.00 for $100.00
Bojan Velickovic/Darren Till Over 2½ (-160) $160.00 for $100.00
Bojan Velickovic/Darren Till Over 2½ (-172) $172.00 for $100.00
Bojan Velickovic wins in round 3 (+2500) $10.000 for $250.00
Darren Till/Bojan Velickovic Draw (+6900) ~$27.00 for ~$1863.00

Felipe Silva (+420) vs Mairbek Taisumov $100.00 for $420.00
Felipe Silva (+225) vs Mairbek Taisumov $50.00 for $112.50
Felipe Silva wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+500) $20.00 for $100.00
Felipe Silva wins in round 2 (+1200) $5.00 for $60.00
Felipe Silva wins in round 3 (+1800) $5.00 for $90.00

Michel Prazeres wins inside distance (+154) vs Mads Burnell $75.00 for $115.50
Michel Prazeres/Mads Burnell Under 2½ (+157) $75.00 for $117.75

Desmond Green (+270) vs Rustam Khabilov $200.00 for $540.00
Desmond Green +3½ points (-185) vs Rustam Khabilov $185.00 for $100.00

Francimar Barroso (+125) vs Aleksandar Rakic $150.00 for $187.50
Aleksander Rakic wins in round 1 (+300) $35.00 for $105.00

Mike Santiago wins by TKO/KO (+965) $10.00 for $96.50
Mike Santiago/Zabit Magomedsharipov Under 1½ (+123) $75.00 for $92.25

Bojan Mihajlovic/Abdul-Kerim Edilov won’t start round 2 (-160) $64.00 for $40.00

Andrew Holbrook scorecards = no action (-145) $58.00 for $40.00

Darren Till/Bojan Velickovic FOTN award winner (+700) $10.00 for $70.00

Fights to end in KO/TKO over 4½ (+112) $40.00 for $44.80
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 5½ (+301) $20.00 for $60.20
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 6½ (+784) $10.00 for $78.40
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 7½ (+2470) $5.00 for $123.50
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 8½ (+9500) $5.00 for $475.00

0-4 yikes. Managed to pick the one favorite who lost xd

EDIT: 0-5 where's the nearest bridge?

oh boy Barberena landed a peach in that round 2, that is called "getting clocked".

edit: Bryan Barberena wins by submission in round 3 (+7500) ~$27.00 for ~$2025.00 (jims bet) One time!

A.Volkov vs S.Struve
Fight Result (2 way):*
Struve, Stefan To Win
Price: 2.11
Stake: 250.00
Potential returns: 527.50


Struve looked absolutely radiant stepping off the coach and entering the venue arena.

Volkov looks to be a cold cat, that's not going to cut it vs a primed Struve... has Volkov stepped up like Stipe Miocic (grown etc).

At this point Struve is way behond Volkov.

Volkov is going to have a big big man in front of him, that has grown into his unusual shape, knows all the tricks, has a good right hand, and the ground is his.


f the Struve's chin has gone BS,

better to go with what you feel as and when and live (and die).


Struve is too much primed meat from Holland, dude knows what he is doing, some Russian dude is not going to just step in and take it easy.

ZERO chance of that.

Volkov does not impress me.

[this is not a bridge jump betting opportunity, at most if it exists its 60/40)

I'm 1-9 now. By far the worst night I've had betting ever.

this is all just one life time and there are a bunch ahead of you, don't sweat it.

Edit: Only way I see Struve losing is by the Russian CLEAN f'ing knock his arse out with a beautiful right hand, some thing that goes around or over his guard, so like an over hand right.

Struve needs to control the distance tonight. he is the man in the cage with the balls. Tell it as it is, he is the warm cat here with the fight to give vs a taker cold cat thai fighting dude with low power.

man ! these fing referees, they really want someone to die tonight...

Yeah, the last two stoppages could easily have been stopped earlier.

Talita Bernardo turtling up and getting hit in the head multiple times as well as Rob Wilkinson having to be hit significantly for a fourth time before both fights were stopped is not good refereeing.

The referees inexplicably giving them every chance to fight back even though there was very little chance of it happening.

that ground and pound did nothing.

Struve getting his face / head smashed back, dam...

Edit: 3rd round and Struve needs to cut the **** and start landing some meaningful shots.

That was surprisingly fun. Not the whole card, but the main event itself. End up going 3-9 for -7.2u. Guess it doesn't end up being that crazy, but sure felt bad xd