Update: Stars corrected the error, it was unintentional as the weekend was a busy time for them.

Yeah, two judges had Floyd ahead 8 rounds to 1 going into the 10th (giving Conor only round 1). The other judge had it 6-3 (giving Conor rounds 1,2 & 3).

And two judges (not the same two) scored round nine 10-8 for Floyd.

I assumed it was closer than that.

Balla - Struve definitely isn't a master of distance, if he was he would be a top 5 HW, but I do think he's a favourite against Volkov who is basically just a bread and butter upper-mid level striker, Struve has possibly the second best BJJ out of the active HWs after Werdum and is also a powerful kickboxer, granted he's hittable but when he's aggressive his sheer physique makes him a nightmare and Volkov as far as I know will never have fought a taller, bigger rangier striker than him.

Struve's standup's still improving, if he can get his range as a striker he can be a top 5 HW for sure, the key is to have a solid jab and like Anderson back in the day he's not scared of being taken down as he's got excellent BJJ so he can focus on throwing a full range of strikes from an 8-point base without fear.

I think the most important part is that Volkov just isn't really anything Struve's never seen before and the reverse isn't true, Volkov's never fought anyone like Struve.

re: Floyd/Conor, I agree that the judges are pretty iffy for not giving Conor at least two of the first three rounds, he probably won all three and only one of them was close from memory (I forget if it was the second or third)

I had it 6-3 Floyd and anything from 7-2 to 5-4 wouldn't be unacceptable scoring, but 8-1 is pretty bad.

Apparently that body shot that folded Mayweather up in the 9th was legit and the ref had to step in to save Money from getting a tidy beat down in the corner. Paulie Malignaggi in the same breath of it landing call it a legal blow.

Pretty sure the Russian will beat Struve. He also got really good tdd, not that Struve will even try a takedown, perhaps he will pull guard but Volkov to smart for that ****. I think he will punish Struve and tko him easy.

Does it going 5 rounds fav Struve or Volkov.

DWTNCS 8 Risk $755.00

Jose Luke Flores/Matt Frevola Under 2½ (+122) $100.00 for $122.00
Elias Urbina (+230) vs Bevon Lewis $100.00 for $230.00
Allen Crowder (+248) vs Don'Tale Mayes $100.00 for $248.00
Allen Crowder/Don'Tale Mayes Under 1½ (-137) $137.00 for $100.00
Kelly McGill-Velasco (-155) vs Lauren Mueller $155.00 for $100.00
Adam Antolin (+285) vs Casey Kenney $100.00 for $285.00

Parlay:
Adam Antolin/Casey Kenney Over 2½ (-165) + Kelly McGill-Velasco/Lauren Mueller Over 2½ (-270) $100.00 for $120.09

I don't see it going 5 rounds, Volkov is going to tko him. You could hedge Struve by sub but I don't see that as a likely outcome but going the distance even less likely. Heavyweights I almost always think inside distance, especially 5 rounds.

I took Adam Antolin for 1u at +270. First time betting as small a card as this. Really troublesome for me due to the few fights each fighter has had. Only this fight and Flores v Frevola had enough data to even estimate.

Adding Lauren Mueller 1u at +140. Can't accurately estimate her, but gotta have some fun I guess.

I don't think it's going the distance. Either Volkov by TKO or Struve by TKO or SUB.

The commentators just said Mueller was a -170 favorite? Did they make a mistake or were IRL bookies way different from pinnacle? Anyway nice performance. She gassed a bit, but I thought she was smart with trying to win the end of the last two rounds when she ran out of stamina. I bet this even though I had so little data because I estimated Mueller at -210, which is a pretty big difference to make up for the inaccuracy.

What a fight this is. Kenney looked super impressive early, but Antolin is tough as nails!

EDIT: Added 1.5u Flores @ -183

LOOOOL. I just realize I was rooting for the wrong guy in the last fight. I didn't bet Flores @ -183, I bet Frevola at that line, which was the bet I wanted to make. I got my F's mixed up. So that is 3-0 on the night!

Always nice when a misclick works out

In case I was unclear it wasn't a misclick. I made the bet the model told me to. I just got the names mixed up and rooted for the wrong guy :P

In related news that was very enjoyable to watch. Were the other episodes this good? Felt like a solid prelim without the "main event" of more famous guys to bring you onto the PPV. Shame its a terrible time to watch from here.

Oh right I assumed you intended to bet one side and misclick bet the other

I haven't actually watched DWTNCS yet although I plan to start at some point. Everyone seems to think it's good though so far

Small arbitrage opportunity between bet365 and pinnacle. Mihajlovic is +460 on pinny while Edilov is -450 on bet365.

EDIT: Posted that first in case anyone wanted to get on it. I don't have enough on either book to really make a dent in that line so.

As for my actual bets for this card:
Volkov -124
Barberena +250
Barroso +105
Green +250
Mihjlovic +460
Silva +210
Bahadurzada -147
Prazeres -350
Santiago +325

Yeah and Volkov got decent chin, good tdd and is a smart fighter too. Struve just big, thats all, he wont take him down imo, and his stand up is too weak.

Good TDD? He got taken down at will and couldn't get up vs Kongo and hasn't exactly faced a who's who of wrestlers since

Struve's defensive standup is bad but his offensive standup is solid. It's also a big deal that Volkov will be the shorter smaller fighter with less reach that's not something he's used to with his style. I've already gone into why I like Struve here, sure Volkov could crack his chin but is he really a favourite in front of Struve's home crowd? Remember Struve isn't fat and will have a longer reach and outweigh him by about 40 lbs assuming he's cutting from 280ish to 265 now that he's filled out his frame and if the fight goes to the mat Volkov is drawing thin to dead (basically has to survive the round or find his way back to his feet which he couldn't do vs Kongo).

I think if Struve is aggressive he'll end Volkov in brutal fashion and if he's tentative Volkov will win. We'll see. Disclaimer i'm slightly biased as Struve is one of my favourite HWs but I do think he's turned a corner from his mid-career slump in his last two fights.

What are your guys thoughts on RDA vs Magny?

I think RDA is going to get inside his range and beat him up. The -200ish line seems about right though with Magny being the bigger, rangier guy and natural WW. RDA's not quite what he was a couple years ago but I still think he's good enough to find Magny's chin regularly. If I have to pick an exact outcome i'll go with RDA by TKO. I might even play that prop if I can get +400 or something once a few more books have lines out.

Anyone think Khabilov might be value at -290? I don't know much about Green but apparently he can wrestle, but Khabilov held his own with Masvidal standing granted a few years ago so i'm not too worried about him losing to a guy who has a bunch of split decisions with relative nobodies. Khabilov's sort of the definition of 'borderline contender top 15-20ish fighter' and unless Green's better than I think he is Khabilov doesn't really fight a high variance style

Also has anyone got thoughts on Holbrook/Gouti? Khabilov and Holbrook are the other two spots i'm considering other than Struve at current prices but haven't fired either yet

Yeah, Struve has only lost to top HW's, so in fact it's probably a lot closer than I initially thought. He's also a lot younger than I thought with all that experience. Hmmm, in hindsight if he comes to fight, I can see him winning and likewise I do think Volkov needs to give him something, or fight less than optimal. If Volkov brings it then I think it will be a tough fight for Struve.

I guess betting the dog here is probably the play, why do they have Volkov as the betting fav here?

As for RDA, I like him here, sure Magny has size and reach and Ferguson with similar frame beat RDA but Magny isn't Tony, I like RDA by decision.

I don't see Struve taking him down, he's not a wrestler, his chin is pretty glass too.

Struve got Mark Hunt down multiple times with an undiagnosed heart defect and Volkov's TDD is pretty garbage if someone's actively trying to take him down (again see Kongo fight)

Struve's not a wrestler but will have 40lbs of weight on him, it's not impossible. Also his TKO losses have all come against legit top 10 fighters in their primes - yes it's very possible Volkov TKOs him but Struve has more ways to win the fight, Volkov only wins by getting inside Struve's range and finding his chin which is the opposite to his usual gameplan of being the rangier fighter and striking from outside his opponent's range.

Yeah I like Magny and was a little tempted to bet this one since I think he's got kind of an underrated skill set (athletic, rangy, jack of all trades type of guy), but I just re-watched the Lorenz Larkin fight and man did he get crushed there despite the reach advantage.

That was just over a year ago too, so there's only so much improvement he could have made in the gym.