Wow that's a big swing in prices with him at -177 now

I'm not really familiar enough with Gaethje to figure out the stylistic matchup that's some serious steam on Johnson

Think from a styles make fights POV there is nobody tougher than Woodley for Maia. Think Maia will REALLY struggle to get him down and if he does, it will take a LOT of effort and will make it even more difficult in future rounds - Maia's cardio isn't great...neither is Woodley's but it takes more effort to take someone down who has good TDD then it does to defend a takedown. Standing, over 5 rounds Woodley has to be a decent favourite to get the KO.

Whittaker over Romero at close to evens, Whittaker will push a pace Romero won't be able to sustain for more than 2 rounds, he's a much better striker and Romero doesn't have the gas tank to implement a wrestling heavy gameplan for 5 rounds, especially vs someone with really good TDD - I'd bet Whittaker to about -160 here. It'll be tougher and a lot more dangerous than Jacare but still have to favour him.

The success Whittaker's had at MW makes me wonder how Wonderboy would go at MW, he could have some serious KO power if he added muscle and he'd still be very fast for the weight class. The big powerful wrestlers might be an issue though. I guess he's still only a few fights and a different champion away from another title shot at WW though so unless he loses another title shot there's no reason to move weight classes

Wonderboy doesn't ave KO power at WW, what makes you think he'll have any at MW?

Well he knocked Robert Whittaker out for one. I mean if he added muscle he'd have pretty big legs for his kicks and extra muscle for punching power. it was just a thought obviously he's better off at WW for the time being and he may lose speed at MW, but WW makes sense. Also he does have 5 KO/TKO finishes in 8 wins at WW so it's not like he has no KO power, he knocked out Hendricks before everyone was doing it and Ellenberger and Whittaker as well plus some lower level guys.

Anyone got any thoughts on whether Blaydes really wins something like 83% of the time in a HW fight? I'm so tempted to bet on Omielanczuk just because 'better than +500 and non elite heavyweights'

Gaethje has pretty good wrestling and we know MJ akilles heel. Also, Jack Slack seems to be high on Gaethje, so there's that.

Also I feel like anytime a HW is +500, it's a good bet unless perhaps you have like one of the bottom tier HW's going against a top 10 HW who has a decent chin.

Decided that I don't think Nunes's gas tank will last and that Shevchenko is a fav to survive the assault - added 5u Shevchenko -110 and risking smaller bets to win 20u each on Shev r3 +1200, r4 +1600 and r5 +3000 as I think if she wins it's pretty likely to be in the second half of the fight once Nunes is out of gas and those are some attractive prices, risking only 3.6u or so combined to win 20u if any of them hit it's effectively 3.6u at +555 on Shevchenko wins in r3-5 and given Shevchenko is +160 to win ITD (obviously there are times she finishes in the first two rounds as well) it seems pretty attractive given that Nunes is a fast starter, Shevchenko is a slow starter and then momentum should reverse late in the second or in the third round if the fight is still going as Nunes starts to slow down

Took 5u on Whittaker too at -125 which I think is about the true price and hedged with 0.5u on Romero wins in r3 +1400 because 'lol r3 romero is a thing'

Should be done for the card now

9.5u Werdum +116 average

9u Santos -131 average

5u Shevchenko -110
3.6u Shevchenko wins in r3-5 +555

5u Whittaker -125
0.5u Romero r3 hedge

Sort of tempted by Miller decision +400 and maybe Omielanczuk +600 or whatever he ends up at but haven't fired either of them yet. If Miller can take Pettis down a couple times he could definitely win some sort of a close decision.

according to bestfightodds, sportsbook has klose -300 / diakiese +230
ummm... what? how does a book get that so wrong?

anybody else really liking blades tko prop at -110?
prob gonna fire a couple units on it

The conventional wisdom about betting HW dogs makes sense because in theory either guy can end it in 1 punch.

In this case however I don't think it applies. Reason being Blaydes isn't going to stand and bang he will smother him with wrestling. Without the high variance of a 1 punch KO Blaydes becomes a much safer pick. While the juice is stupid Blaydes decisively wins this fight.

All his pro fights so far have ended with a KO (win or lose) so yeah I like it at that price.

i'm such a moron
bet a unit on blaydes tko -110

go back and look at props
and could've bet either fighter to win by tko at -106
whaaaaaat?!?!?!?!?!

Woodley has also been in training for a fight since I think like March/April while Maia reportedly wanted some time to heal/get ready for eventual title fight in fall.

Odds are Maia was given ultimately of take this fight 2 months after your last one or u will never get it. If WME/UFC could drug Maia before fight and get away with it they prob would lol.

It's weird because Maia is one of the most entertaining BJJ fighters there is (along with guys like Charles Oliveira) it's guys like Jake Shields that give ground fighters a bad name. I look forward to Maia fights more than Woodley fights

Maia has been calling out Woodley for like a year though he knew he'd get the Woodley fight if he beat Masvidal so it's not a huge deal given he basically ended one camp and can start another straight away, yes another couple weeks would have been ideal but I don't think it'll negatively affect Maia that much, either he finds a way to Woodley's back or to the ground and wins or he doesn't and loses. Also while Maia took some damage at the end of the first vs Masvidal, he didn't take a pile of damage despite it being a close fight and even though he's up there in age it's not like he's taken a lot of damage in his MMA career.

I'm shocked we don't have lines for the other title fights for 214 yet other than the main. I assume we will after the weekend.

Blaydes TKO is +110 on 5d if anyone wanted that. Pretty lol re the one fighter TKO vs fight ends by TKO line, i've made that mistake before (granted a long time ago)

I think i'm done for this card now with Santos/Werdum/Shevchenko/Whittaker roughly in order of how much I like the bets.

Just saw reem dec is +450 on b365 so put 2u on there as a hedge to break even if reem wins a decision since I think that his most likely way to win is just outstriking werdum with a conservative gameplan and avoiding the ground game econo-reem style. Not a bad spot to break even as long as Werdum doesn't get finished for minimal outlay. It's actually an arb vs the 5dimes price too.

Decided to add 1.5u on Miller DEC +400 as well. I expect Pettis to beat him but if Miller wins it'll be via ground control a lot or one of those close grinding against the cage fights if he can back Pettis up

Thanks swoop, I'm glad I'm not the only one. I was slightly tilted by it.
Which kind of lead to a weird idea after seeing your picks line up with mine.

I made myself a little wsop satty for the little one for one drop.
I put 2u on a 4 pick parlay @ ~ 10 to 1. Hopefully be in Vegas soon

whittaker
santos
werdum
blaydes / omiel ends in tko

Gl, I don't mind it at that price, hope it hits

Thanks u2
Would've got 12 to 1 on it today. Oh welI

I'm still a fish at sports betting
Binking this would make up for a lot

Do you guys think there's value in Jared Cannonier to beat Nick Roehrick at a price of -250?

Roehrick only has 3 days notice for the fight, surely that is an insurmountable disadvantage vs someone who has been fully preparing. Should also be a big skill advantage, this is Roehrick's first UFC fight and he's a bit of an unknown.

Thoughts?

I've never seen Roehrick fight so no idea. 7-0 but vs unknowns, not super keen to lay -250 on Cannonier when he has a basic skillset even if he's a standard lower to mid level UFC caliber guy. In a higher weight class though the late notice is def going to be a minus cardio wise unless Roehrick is known for it, I have no idea

Was hoping Krause and Taylor would be bettable for the TUF finale; i'm considering Taylor at -180. Shame Gallicchio has such a tough first fight in the UFC I really like him and think he'd do better dropping down in weight, hopefully he gets a second chance when he likely loses to Krause

Considering Gaethje too, does anyone like Gaethje decision +750? Seems tempting.

I like MJ in the first 2 rounds but after that I think Gaethje will have him. Gaethje by points but I like him finishing MJ late as well.

Might get on Gaethje points tomorrow. I ended up cashing out my Whittaker bet for a tiny loss with the minor Yoel steam today as I decided I think Romero might close as fav and I can get Whittaker last minute. Obviously if it moves the other way i'll feel ******ed about it

Pretty tempting to get Gaethje dec for tomorrow, considering Jesse Taylor too. I think Krause, Torres and Maynard are all kind of tempting but the former two are slightly too short and Maynard is so shot plus I strongly dislike him... but he may still be value at +295 or whatever he is now. No bets for the TUF finale for now. I hope Gallicchio gets a fight in his natural weight class if he loses to Krause, he's a very entertaining guy and you just want him to succeed.

I may end up getting rid of my Shevchenko straight up play if more money comes on Nunes and just keep my r3-5 props and i'm still tempted to add Omielanczuk as well just because higher than +500 and non-elite HWs. The only two of my bets i'm rock solid on are Werdum and Santos, fairly confident both are value at the prices I got as a small dog and small fav respectively.

Krauss has to be printing money even at 1.25, don't really see it going the dist either at 1.8 seems like value.

I like Diego but I don't think he will beat Taylor, decent value at 2.0 Taylor by points. Perhaps small 1st KO for Diego prop.

Nick Roehrick made weight and was training to fight anyway. I'd put money on him blind with his size adv and that he's 3.0 and Cannonier is terrible.

I like Shevshenko but does she finish Nunez and how? I'm pretty sure Nunez will gas, if Shevshenko can weather the storm, she should beat her, I guess she will finish her as a gassed out person will surrender somehow and will never ride it out to the end.

Then again if Nunez gasses say late 3rd or early/mid 4th will she be able to grind it out?

Anybody else like Miller too? I think I'm leaning Romero too, I just don't see Whittaker doing it tbh. Yoel is getting that belt imo, he will beat Whittaker then beat Bisping. Whittaker will get his rematch in a year 18 months time and will take Yoel, Yoel will retire after that.