UFC Fight Night 111
Carls John de Tomas vs Naoki Inoue Under 2.5 +107 (5Dimes)
Russell Doane over Kwan Ho Kwan +105 (5Dimes)
Frank Camacho vs Li Jingliang Under 2.5 -110 (SportsBook) **Great Value Here**
Rolando Dy vs Alex Caceres Over 2.5 -115 (SportsBook)
Andrei Arlovski vs Marcin Tybura Over 1.5 -108 (5Dimes)

Almost all dogs.

UFN 111 Risk $2447.50

Holly Holm/Bethe Correia starts round 3 (-218) $218.00 for $100.00
Holly Holm wins by 5 round unanimous decision (+230) $50.00 for $115.00

Andrei Arlovski (+210) vs Marcin Tybura $100.00 for $210.00
Andei Arlovski wins by KO/TKO (+445) $25.00 for $111.25
Andrei Arlovski/Marcin Tybura fight ends by KO/TKO/DQ (-175) $87.50 for $50.00

Dong Hyun Kim (+265) vs Colby Covington $200.00 for $530.00
Dong Hyun Kim (+255) vs Colby Covington $200.00 for $510.00
Dong Hyun Kim wins by 3 round decision (+440) $50.00 for $220.00
Colby Covington wins in round 3 (+1350) $50.00 for $675.00

Tarec Saffiedine (+230) vs Rafael dos Anjos $100.00 for $230.00
Tarec Saffiedine (+220) vs Rafael dos Anjos $100.00 for $220.00
Tarec Saffiedine wins by 3 round decision (+337) $35.00 for $117.95

Jon Tuck/Takanori Gomi Over 1½ (+117) $50.00 for $58.50
Jon Tuck/Takanori Gomi Over 1½ (+105) $50.00 for $52.50

Cyril Asker (+280) vs Walt Harris $100.00 for $280.00
Cyril Asker (+265) vs Walt Harris $200.00 for $530.00
Cyril Asker wins by KO/TKO (+715) $75.00 for $536.25

Rolando Dy (+265) vs Alex Caceres $50.00 for $132.50

Ulka Sasaki (+435) vs Justin Scoggins $50.00 for $217.50
Not Scoggins inside distance (-159) $79.50 for $50.00
Ulka Sasaki wins by submission (+610) $30.00 for $183.00
Ulka Sasaki wins by 3 round decision (+1325) $50.00 for $662.50

Li Jingliang wins by submission (+474) vs Frank Camacho $25.00 for $118.50

Russell Doane (+105) vs Kwan Ho Kwak $100.00 for $105.00
Russell Doane wins by 3 round decision (+347) $35.00 for $121.45

Naoki Inoue/Carls John de Tomas Under 2½ (+107) $50.00 for $53.50
Naoki Inoue wins by submission (+170) $25.00 for $42.50

Lucie Pudilova (-125) vs Ji Yeon Kim $62.50 for $50.00

Lucie Pudilova/Ji Yeon Kim FOTN award winner (+1000) $10.00 for $100.00

Parlays:
Lucie Pudilova/Ji Yeon Kim Over 2½ (-200) + Tarec Saffiedine/Rafael dos Anjos Over 2½ (-275) $100.00 for $104.55

Ulka Sasaki wins by submission (+610) + Colby Covington wins by submission (+591) $15.00 for $720.92
Li Jingliang wins by submission (+420) + Colby Covington wins by submission (+591) $15.00 for $523.98
Naoki Inoue wins by submission (+170) + Colby Covington wins by submission (+591) $15.00 for $264.86
Li Jingliang wins by submission (+420) + Ulka Sasaki wins by submission (+610) $15.00 for $538.80
Naoki Inoue wins by submission (+170) + Ulka Sasaki wins by submission (+610) $15.00 for $272.55
Naoki Inoue wins by submission (+170) + Li Jingliang wins by submission (+420) $15.00 for $195.60

Just realised Camacho has only been to decision twice in his 20-4 record and has been finished in all 4 losses and has finished 18 of his 20 wins.

I actually quite like the Li sub prop, generally agree with Jim's picks except that i'm not sure Scoggins or Caceres lose as often as their opponents odds, prices seem about right on both.

Kind of tempted to take Holm ITD too because of the way Ronda faceplanted Bethe, sure Holly is mostly a point fighter but it's 5 rounds and will probably be 5 rounds of beatdown

Also added a 0.1u parlay of my 7 dog picks to win 360 units which is obviously ridiculous but will be exciting if we can get a few legs in

Was gonna skip this (feel like I have a lot of work to do, but haven't found the motivation to really get into it for some reason), but seeing as the timeslot is great for EU and I'll be watching I decided to bet.

Hardly surprising by now that my model loves the underdogs.

Correia +425
Dong Hyun Kim +273
Camacho +400
Gomi +275
Sasaki +398
Ji Yeon Kim +111
Kwak -114
Asker +275

GL everyone.

Well, i'm mostly on the same side as Maglame this time as well except on the other side of Kwak and a few no plays. Pretty sure Correia can't win unless somehow she can get it to the ground and Holm gives up her neck but that seems super unlikely given how unathletic Correia is compared to Holm.

Seems like the thread is mostly on underdogs today, gogo dogs!

Inoue is obviously way more skilled but I don't think i've ever seen a UFC fighter with as little strength/power as he has.

Ok here we go with all of the underdogs. Let's go Doane up first

Great finish!

Boom, Doane with the rally and r1 KO. Thanks Jim for confirming my read which led to me firing it.

Decent start.

One leg down, six to go to win 36k from a $10 parlay lol

+3u and change start

Terrible start. 0-2. Two closest fights line wise. Going 0-8 not unrealistic now.

Biggest dog of the day that I bet. Let's go Camacho! Definitely the longest shot, but Li isn't that good if Camacho can take advantage of a mistake or land a nice shot or even get top position.

Don't worry DHK is going to come through for us (probably by split decision)

Correia is the only one where you're dead imo

Should hit at least one of Asker/Gomi/Camacho imo as they're all live dogs if clear underdogs

Might be worth tweaking your model to value wins based on the manner in which they occurred etc, a clear domination being worth more than a win that could be a fluke or that was against the flow of the fight as a whole.

Wow no way Camacho was +400 here loving my 3u +3xx Camacho is lighting him up!

Oh nice and he reverses the takedown and is a solid grappler

Let's go Camacho!

10-9 Camacho assuming judges are competent, seems like the gameplan is stand and bang

Slightly worrying because of the takedowns and rnc attempt, but Camacho did the only damage of the round

Camacho looking tired but Li is utterly ineffective on the feet hopefully Camacho can land some big shots

Looks like if this wasn't short notice Camacho would have been a fav probably hope he can find a second wind

19-19

Well, he's gassed but he has a hell of a chin and fighting spirit. Needs to drop to 155 at least. Shame Camacho didn't have a full camp, ran out of gas in r2 and was doing well until he did

Taunting and blocking punches with your face doesn't work as well when you're too gassed to throw counters

29-28 or 29-27 Li, but we had the right side given the price

Back to even

...28-27? Wait, so one judge gave Camacho the first 10-8? Interesting.

Seems like a bit of Kim money coming back now after he topped out at +275

No bet on Scoggins/Sasaki but I expect Scoggins handles him easily

This is going pretty much exactly as expected, it's a mismatch. But hey at least Scoggins made weight this time!

Good call Jim!

Did I speak too soon? What a win for Sasaki! Congrats Jim great call and maglame your model lives on, slick submission

Hilarious how Scoggins continues to make mistakes and lose to 'less skilled' opponents.

Mildly annoying to have bet on 7 dogs for the card and not have this one, but the fight did go pretty much as I expected, Scoggins just made a mistake and Sasaki made him pay. Sometimes that's enough for +4xx though

Christ. I was feeling all kinds of down during that fight. But somehow, some way, it turns around!