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Old 02-01-2012, 08:47 PM   #401
Tatanka
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Re: MMA Thread

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@Tatanka Ellenberger should maul Sanchez. He's basically better everywhere
He's not better at stealing decisions. I'm still baffled at the Diego/Kampman decision. There is nothing worse than spending time analyzing a fight, having it play out as you thought, and having Cecil Peoples **** everything up.
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Old 02-01-2012, 08:59 PM   #402
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Re: MMA Thread

Does anyone think im crazy for liking roy nelson? how the **** can bodog get away with -255 on diaz yet only +175 on condit?

right now the odds on Alexander Gustafsson vs Lil nog is -250, anyone like this?

I also like myself, i mean pierce @ these odds.
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Old 02-01-2012, 09:05 PM   #403
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Re: MMA Thread

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Does anyone think im crazy for liking roy nelson? how the **** can bodog get away with -255 on diaz yet only +175 on condit?

right now the odds on Alexander Gustafsson vs Lil nog is -250, anyone like this?

I also like myself, i mean pierce @ these odds.
Gustafsson should take it, I look forward to that match a lot.

It's bc most people only see one victory path for nelson Pierce, it's if he TKO's/KO's werdum. Werdum also has better technical striking. I like the fight to go the distance since I don't see either fighter submitting or werdum finishing nelson.
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Old 02-01-2012, 10:26 PM   #404
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Re: MMA Thread

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He's not better at stealing decisions. I'm still baffled at the Diego/Kampman decision. There is nothing worse than spending time analyzing a fight, having it play out as you thought, and having Cecil Peoples **** everything up.
Putrid. And what's even more mind-boggling, it was unanimous. How all three judges saw that for Sanchez is beyond my comprehension...then again I'm always impressed when I watch Kampmann fight and I thought he beat Shields too. That guy runs bad.

@Pierce, Condit was +190 last I saw, I made a small bet on him a bit ago.
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Old 02-02-2012, 03:08 AM   #405
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Re: MMA Thread

Im pretty happy with my large play on Werdum -125 and my medium plays on Kos Barao and Herman.

I'll bet Condit if he hits +200, otherwise probably not.

Will be using Poirer and Brown in parlays along with my other four picks and maybe some others depending where the lines settle
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Old 02-02-2012, 03:30 AM   #406
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Re: MMA Thread

Added half a unit on Condit +171

Will make it a unit and a half or so if he hits +190 or better otherwise leave it I guess

I feel like Condit wins ~40% of the time give or take a bit
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Old 02-02-2012, 06:19 AM   #407
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Re: MMA Thread

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Im pretty happy with my large play on Werdum -125 and my medium plays on Kos Barao and Herman.

I'll bet Condit if he hits +200, otherwise probably not.

Will be using Poirer and Brown in parlays along with my other four picks and maybe some others depending where the lines settle
If you want to use someone for parlays, take a look at wonderboy thompson, he trains with GSP and a lot of talk goes around that he's a prodigy. Smth ridiciousle like 56-0 in kickboxing, 5-0 MMA(though local circuit) and brought up from a Martial Arts family at an early age.
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Old 02-02-2012, 01:58 PM   #408
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by PiercE View Post
Does anyone think im crazy for liking roy nelson? how the **** can bodog get away with -255 on diaz yet only +175 on condit?

right now the odds on Alexander Gustafsson vs Lil nog is -250, anyone like this?

I also like myself, i mean pierce @ these odds.
yes yes. you are crazy

but my opinion on the Nelson/Werdum fight is worthless as I am heavily biased since I train at Werdum's gym.

Like SwoopAE, I also have a fairly large play on Werdum. If everything goes as planned, I basically see it as Professor Werdum paying next months gym dues for me by beating Nelson.
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Old 02-02-2012, 05:17 PM   #409
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Re: MMA Thread

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If you want to use someone for parlays, take a look at wonderboy thompson, he trains with GSP and a lot of talk goes around that he's a prodigy. Smth ridiciousle like 56-0 in kickboxing, 5-0 MMA(though local circuit) and brought up from a Martial Arts family at an early age.
He's only -250 to -260, worth a bet by himself even?

I feel like all of the -200 to -300ish favourites should win this card and even if one doesn't it feels +EV to bet them all. Going to combine a lot of 3-fight parlays using them I think.
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Old 02-02-2012, 05:23 PM   #410
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Re: MMA Thread

Werdum is -137 now, I should have got more on him at -125, I haven't been this confident in a fighter under -200 in a long time. I may even add a few more units later if he stays around that price on fight day.
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Old 02-02-2012, 08:19 PM   #411
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Re: MMA Thread

SwoopAE your posts would be a lot more interesting if you had a 100k roll and made your plays vs betting 5bucks usd as a unit.

Post is not ment to be a put down just saying why are there no posters here that are printing $ through mma betting?

SwoopAE how many units are you actual up or down over the last 24months.
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Old 02-02-2012, 08:24 PM   #412
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Re: MMA Thread

Im counting 100 as a unit. You'd probably know that if you read more than 5 of my posts. I have about 12 units in play on 143 so far, about 500 (5u, since that seems important to you) on Werdum and the rest split between Barao/Kos/Herman in amounts to win 1 unit (so 2.x units on each) with a small half unit play on Condit. Yes, I do bet $5 on fighters sometimes for the sweat, although that's often because I just feel like a rail and i'm not confident it's a +EV bet. My large bets when I like a fighter and think it's +EV are usually in the 200-700 region.

Results wise i'm up about 1500 over past year, which is 15 units or so. I don't consider myself a serious sports bettor, it's more of an entertainment thing, and if I make money at it, then cool. If I ever lose my initial bankroll, i'll be done with it.

High point since I started posting here was up about +22u after a successful run leading up to 139 and the TUF finale, went on a downswing to where I was almost back to even (you can see people making fun of me at 140/141 where I got crushed for example), then done well over the last few cards mostly the 700 I had on Belfort and a decent bet on Evans and some other ones.

I'm not 'printing money' by putting serious $ into sportsbetting because my sample is too small to know if i'm a winning sportsbettor yet. I'm up, but it's not exactly huge money either in the grand scheme or in terms of betting units.

If you don't like my posts feel free to ignore them.

Last edited by SwoopAE; 02-02-2012 at 08:29 PM.
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Old 02-02-2012, 08:34 PM   #413
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Re: MMA Thread

I'm certain my units are even smaller than SwoopAE, so you can ignore my posts as well.

Not sure what you're looking for? No one making significant money betting mma(proven) will probably spend their time chatting in up in this thread. Those who pose as such are probably morons who either lie or are running like god.
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Old 02-02-2012, 08:44 PM   #414
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Re: MMA Thread

I'm mainly betting for fun and discussing fights in this thread bc I enjoy analysing mma fights. The amount I bet range anywhere from 1-300$. Like Swoope does occasionally, I bet smaller amounts when I want to make a fight more interesting and whenever I see a good line, I'll bet bigger. My biggest single bet is Melvin vs Roller where I was sure Melvin was going to take it and a 100$ parlay for TJ Grant over Roller + Paul Sass over Johnson when both of them where underdogs.
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Old 02-02-2012, 08:45 PM   #415
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Re: MMA Thread

i wanna bet a lot on condit here but im not touching that fight cuz i wanna enjoy it
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Old 02-02-2012, 08:56 PM   #416
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Re: MMA Thread

I think betting on fotn on Diaz vs Condit and/or Alex Caceres vs Edwin Figueroa should be a lock.
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Old 02-02-2012, 09:00 PM   #417
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Re: MMA Thread

Koschekkkkkk
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Old 02-03-2012, 01:39 AM   #418
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Re: MMA Thread

been on a god-like run checking in brah
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Old 02-03-2012, 01:53 AM   #419
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Re: MMA Thread

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I'm mainly betting for fun and discussing fights in this thread bc I enjoy analysing mma fights.
This. I find people on this board way more tolerable than apes over at Sherdog and such.

Plays so far: Pierce +205, Condit +190 (1/2 unit), Brown/Figueroa/Herman parlay.

Looking over props now...first thing that jumps out is Diaz is favored to win by decision which surprises me a bit, as I think a late finish (championship rounds) could be a little more likely. Added small bets on Pierce by Dec (+400) and Werdum by Dec (+170).

Last edited by just_mo; 02-03-2012 at 02:04 AM.
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Old 02-03-2012, 02:47 AM   #420
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Re: MMA Thread

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been on a god-like run checking in brah


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Old 02-03-2012, 04:48 AM   #421
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Re: MMA Thread

I quite like Werdum by decision +170. He won't win by KO, so it'll be sub or dec, and if Nelson wins it'll be KO most likely, I just don't see him outpointing Werdum very often. I've bet Werdum straight up instead, but I quite like the decision line.

Pierce by decision... meh, but it's +400 so whatever. I still think Kos is going to either catch him standing or 30-27 him but you never know. Kos has only ever really lost to top guys and on short notice against Paulo Thiago, i'm not convinced Pierce is a top guy yet. He very well could be, but then again i'm not fully sold on Hendricks being a legit top-3 WW yet either based off his fitch knockout, and a lot of Pierce's supporters point to his close fight with Hendricks as evidence for why he can beat Kos.

I still maintain Kos could have a (very small) chance against GSP if he spammed takedowns, his wrestling is really, really amazing when he wants to wrestle. Kos needs to win this fight to remain at all relevant to the WW title picture, it's MW or gatekeeper if he loses this one, I just feel like he gets the job done this time.

On the Edwin Figueroa/Bruce Leeroy fight... does Figueroa have what it takes to get it to the ground and tap him? I haven't seen many of his fights, it seems that standing with the new Bruce Leeroy is a bad idea, but he's pretty awful on the ground from memory. I haven't touched that fight at all yet. I put a few bucks on Thompson for the rail (26 to win 10) and will use him in some parlays, pretty much done betting now until I can check parlay odds at pinnacle. All favourites this card except my half unit on Condit, rare for me as i'm usually mixing in a lot of underdogs but I see most of 143 going just the way Joe Silva wants it to in order to set up his future money fights (with the possible exception of Condit over Diaz to face GSP).

Last edited by SwoopAE; 02-03-2012 at 05:00 AM.
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Old 02-03-2012, 05:27 AM   #422
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Re: MMA Thread

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I quite like Werdum by decision +170. He won't win by KO, so it'll be sub or dec, and if Nelson wins it'll be KO most likely, I just don't see him outpointing Werdum very often. I've bet Werdum straight up instead, but I quite like the decision line.

Pierce by decision... meh, but it's +400 so whatever. I still think Kos is going to either catch him standing or 30-27 him but you never know. Kos has only ever really lost to top guys and on short notice against Paulo Thiago, i'm not convinced Pierce is a top guy yet. He very well could be, but then again i'm not fully sold on Hendricks being a legit top-3 WW yet either based off his fitch knockout, and a lot of Pierce's supporters point to his close fight with Hendricks as evidence for why he can beat Kos.

I still maintain Kos could have a (very small) chance against GSP if he spammed takedowns, his wrestling is really, really amazing when he wants to wrestle. Kos needs to win this fight to remain at all relevant to the WW title picture, it's MW or gatekeeper if he loses this one, I just feel like he gets the job done this time.

On the Edwin Figueroa/Bruce Leeroy fight... does Figueroa have what it takes to get it to the ground and tap him? I haven't seen many of his fights, it seems that standing with the new Bruce Leeroy is a bad idea, but he's pretty awful on the ground from memory. I haven't touched that fight at all yet. I put a few bucks on Thompson for the rail (26 to win 10) and will use him in some parlays, pretty much done betting now until I can check parlay odds at pinnacle. All favourites this card except my half unit on Condit, rare for me as i'm usually mixing in a lot of underdogs but I see most of 143 going just the way Joe Silva wants it to in order to set up his future money fights (with the possible exception of Condit over Diaz to face GSP).
Caceres groundgame is very dynamic, he throws up a lot of submissions(and is how I see him winning only really) but his defensive submission game sucks, he gets easily rnc like a part of his fights has ended in. He hanged in there with Jimmy Hettes for a while who's supposed to be a wonderkid in bjj.
Caceres is a outside fighter and Figueroa a inside fighter, it all depends if Figuerioa can close the distance and outstrike Caceres there, which is what most of the mma predictors think he can. He's no slouch on in the standup, starting boxing at 6 and kickboxing at 14 years old. I know Caceres looked very good in his last fight, but you have to remember that he fought a guy who lost 5 of his 6 latest fights and that he was playing Caceres distance game.

Kos won't ever get a title shot again, he simply can't beat GSP, evident from the two last fights. You make it sound like he can just spam takedowns and get them succesfully, it doesn't work like that. First of all, GSP is faster than him, second of all, vs a guy like GSP you have to set them up and can't just bullrush him like you can with Daley who has weaker TDD.
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Old 02-03-2012, 06:32 AM   #423
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Re: MMA Thread

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i wanna bet a lot on condit here but im not touching that fight cuz i wanna enjoy it
That's a good call.

Just placed a large wager on condit and matching that on werdum to sweat with swoop
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Old 02-03-2012, 08:12 AM   #424
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Re: MMA Thread

I still don't believe Caceres is anything but terrible even though he looked good last outing. I'm just gonna chalk that up to Escovedo being even worse (not much of a stretch). Figueroa has a relatively close fight with Mike McDonald I believe, and he's considered an elite talent at 135.
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Old 02-03-2012, 10:51 AM   #425
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Re: MMA Thread

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That's a good call.

Just placed a large wager on condit and matching that on werdum to sweat with swoop
Co-sweat one time... 5u on Werdum and 0.5u on Condit gogogo
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